Q4 2024 Summary
Published Feb 24, 2025, 10:48 PM UTC- Akamai's cloud infrastructure services are expected to achieve ARR growth of 40% to 45% in 2025 , driven by strong demand across multiple verticals for traditional compute workloads. This growth is independent of AI inferencing or the recent $100 million deal, indicating robust underlying demand and potential future upside from AI.
- The company's security business is poised for continued growth, with new products like Guardicore and API Security targeting large markets where Akamai has market-leading products. Investments in go-to-market strategies, including changes to sales methods and increased focus on hunting, are expected to enhance sales productivity and drive growth.
- Akamai's delivery business is showing signs of improvement, with declines starting to moderate. This reduces the negative impact on overall revenue growth, and the company expects further stabilization over the next few years, potentially contributing positively in the future.
- Revenue headwinds from largest customer reducing spend: Akamai's largest customer is moving more services in-house through a DIY strategy, resulting in a revenue headwind of about 1% to 2% per year over the next couple of years. Additionally, political challenges could further impact revenue from this customer, despite a 5-year minimum spend agreement.
- Operating margin pressure due to increased investments and costs: Akamai expects non-GAAP operating margins to decline to approximately 28% in 2025, down from previous levels, due to higher depreciation expenses, increased investments in compute and go-to-market strategies, and negative impacts from foreign exchange rates.
- Challenging growth acceleration amid slowing mature products: Despite a goal to accelerate revenue growth to 10%, guidance for 2025 implies only 3% growth. With mature security products slowing and compute revenue potentially flattening due to transitioning older products to ISV partners, there is uncertainty whether new products can scale rapidly enough to drive the projected growth.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | +2.5% (from $995M to ~$1,020M) | Total revenue increased modestly due to improved performance in higher‐margin segments (security and compute) partially offset by a significant decline in delivery revenue; this reflects a contrast with prior periods where broader growth was supported by stronger overall demand. |
Security Revenue | +13.6% (from $470.95M to ~$534.95M) | Security revenue grew strongly as customer demand for advanced protection solutions continued to drive growth, building upon prior gains in key products; such consistent upward momentum is a continuation of the positive trends seen in earlier periods. |
Delivery Revenue | –18.3% (from $389M to ~$317.71M) | Delivery revenue fell sharply as macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds (including cost optimization by major customers) intensified, reversing some of the revenue gains seen in prior quarters where the decline was less severe. |
Compute Revenue | +23.9% (from $134.92M to ~$167.09M) | Compute revenue increased significantly driven by strong demand and a broader customer base, reflecting an acceleration from earlier improvements in compute offerings and enhanced uptake of cloud optimization solutions. |
U.S. Revenue | +2.7% | U.S. revenue saw modest growth supported by strong performances in security and compute segments that helped counterbalance the declining delivery revenue, an evolution from previous periods where similar dynamics were observed. |
International Revenue | +2.4% | International revenue increased modestly as gains in high-growth segments partially offset challenges such as foreign exchange headwinds, a trend that mirrors earlier periods albeit at a lower growth rate. |
Operating Income | –20% (from $184,786K to ~$148,060K) | Operating income declined significantly due to rising operating expenses and lower margins, even though revenue gains in high-margin segments helped; this marks a regression from prior periods where cost structures were more favorable. |
Net Income | –13% (from ~$160K to ~$139,905K) | Net income decreased less severely than operating income as some non-operating items and tax benefits helped cushion the decline, but the drop largely reflects the revenue mix shifts and higher costs seen compared to previous quarters. |
Basic EPS | Declined from $1.06 to $0.93 | Basic EPS fell as a result of lower net income and higher cost pressures impacting profitability on a per-share basis, reflecting broader challenges that began to emerge in the current period compared to the previous period's stronger results. |
Diluted EPS | Declined from $1.02 to $0.91 | Diluted EPS dropped in line with the decline in net income and increased dilution from cost-related pressures, emphasizing the adverse impact on shareholder returns compared to the more robust performance in prior periods. |
D&A Expenses | –24% (from ~$222,055K to ~$167,949K) | Depreciation and amortization expenses decreased markedly partly due to lower network equipment depreciation following extended useful-life adjustments, a strategy that was implemented in previous periods and yielded further benefits in the current quarter. |
R&D Spending | +10% | R&D spending increased moderately reflecting ongoing investments in innovation and the development of security and compute capabilities, continuing a strategic trend from previous periods aimed at supporting long-term growth. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $1 billion to $1.02 billion | no prior guidance |
Cash Gross Margin | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 72% | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Operating Expenses | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $310 million to $316 million | no prior guidance |
EBITDA Margin | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 41% | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Depreciation Expense | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $132 million to $134 million | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP Operating Margin | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 28% | no prior guidance |
Non-GAAP EPS | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $1.54 to $1.59 | no prior guidance |
Taxes | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | $57 million to $59 million | no prior guidance |
Fully Diluted Share Count | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately 152 million shares | no prior guidance |
CapEx | Q1 2025 | no prior guidance | Approximately $237 million to $245 million, ~24% of revenue | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue | Q4 2024 | $995 million to $1.020 billion | $1,019.94 million | Met |
CapEx | Q4 2024 | $184 million to $192 million | $192.668 million | Missed |
Revenue | FY 2024 | $3.966 billion to $3.991 billion | $3.991 billion (sum of Q1–Q4 revenue) | Met |
CapEx | FY 2024 | Approximately 17% of total revenue | $715.076 million (sum of Q1–Q4 CapEx) | Missed |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Enterprise Compute Growth | Q1–Q3 discussions detailed robust revenue growth, expanding ARR and customer adoption, with incremental improvements in compute revenue and new customer wins ( , , ) | Q4 saw record cloud infrastructure revenue at $230 million with 32% YoY growth, significant increase in enterprise adoption (300+ customers >$100K ARR and 15 customers >$1M ARR) and a strategic shift away from legacy compute products ( ) | Consistent strong growth with accelerated momentum and evolving product mix as legacy items are transitioned to focus on scalability. |
Security Business Expansion and Product Innovation | Across Q1–Q3, there were multiple mentions of strategic acquisitions (e.g. Noname Security), the emergence of the Guardicore platform and API Security solutions, and robust customer wins driving ARR milestones ([26–29], , ) | Q4 reported security surpassing $2B in annual revenue, with Guardicore ARR at $190 million (31% increase) and API Security solution's ARR leaping from $1M to $57 million, alongside expanded channel partnerships ( ) | Ongoing robust expansion and innovation with sustained ARR growth, further validating the product strategy and market expansion beyond initial verticals. |
Delivery Business Performance and Market Consolidation | Q1–Q3 emphasized consistent revenue declines (11% to 16% YoY) due to slowing traffic (especially in media/gaming) and pricing pressures; market consolidation was noted as key to stabilizing rates ( , , ) | Q4 reported delivery revenue at $318 million with an 18% YoY decline, yet highlighted strategic moves such as the Edgio contract acquisition to leverage consolidation and stabilize pricing ( ) | A persistent revenue decline offset by strategic market consolidation efforts that aim to improve pricing stability and set the stage for recovery in 2025. |
Margin Pressure and Operating Costs | In Q1–Q3, the calls highlighted margin compression due to higher colocation costs, heavy investments in compute scaling, and depreciation issues, though with intentions to drive operating leverage through scale (e.g. Q1’s colocation challenges, Q2’s maintained ~29% margin, Q3’s restructuring and CapEx discipline) ( , , ) | Q4 outlined continued margin pressures from a 90bps higher depreciation, increased CapEx at 19% of revenue, and significant compute investments (6% of revenue), alongside ongoing scalability upgrades (e.g. expanded data center footprint, upgraded object storage) ( ) | Ongoing margin pressure from strategic investments remains, but with a clear plan to leverage scale and infrastructure improvements to gradually expand margins over time. |
Shifting Customer Strategies and Revenue Concentration Risks | Q1 mentioned revenue concentration risk due to a major social media customer's cost optimizations resulting in lower traffic, while Q2 provided context on customer shifts without major concern, and Q3 did not explicitly address this topic ( , ) | Q4 discussed the largest customer facing political challenges and shifting to a DIY strategy creating a 1%–2% headwind, but offset by a new 5‑year committed contract with minimum spend, reducing concentration risk ( ) | Evolving risk management: Customer-related revenue risks persist but are being mitigated through long-term contracts and strategic adjustments, reducing exposure over time. |
Expansion into New Market Verticals and Distributed Compute Capabilities | Q1–Q3 repeatedly emphasized a broadening customer base beyond traditional media with compute solutions penetrating e-commerce, financial services, and other industries; distributed cloud advantages (low latency, real‑time processing) were also highlighted ( , , ) | Q4 reinforced this theme by expanding its security portfolio into adjacent markets and detailing significant upgrades to its distributed compute platform (e.g. 41 data centers in 36 cities, enhanced object storage, GPU enhancements for AI and media) ( ) | Continued expansion into new verticals coupled with significant enhancements in distributed compute capabilities signals a productive pivot away from legacy customer segments toward diversified, high-growth areas. |
Macroeconomic, Political, and Geopolitical Headwinds | Across Q1–Q3, there were mentions of macro challenges including weak traffic, FX impacts, and geopolitical tensions affecting industry dynamics and customer behaviors ( , , ) | Q4 reiterated these challenges with detailed discussion on political headwinds (largest customer’s DIY strategy due to domestic political issues), potential tariff impacts, and continuing geopolitical uncertainties—all managed through strategic agreements and supply chain adjustments ( ) | Persistent external risks remain a theme, with recent discussions in Q4 emphasizing political and tariff-related challenges, even as mitigation strategies (like long-term contracts) are increasingly implemented. |
Declining Emphasis on Traditional Media Customer Focus | Q1 explicitly noted falling traffic in media/gaming alongside lower delivery revenue, while Q2 referenced diversification away from media; Q3 did not explicitly discuss this as the narrative was more focused on new opportunities ( , ) | Q4 did not explicitly highlight a shift away from traditional media customers; instead, the focus was on transitioning legacy products and bolstering high-growth segments, implying a continued reduced emphasis on traditional media | The trend of declining reliance on traditional media continues, though Q4 focused more on strategic transitions rather than explicitly discussing media customer de-emphasis, indicating it has become an accepted backdrop of the overall strategy. |
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Impact of Large Customer (TikTok) Headwinds
Q: How will headwinds from your largest customer affect revenue?
A: The headwind is mainly due to the customer's DIY build-out, as they'll take on more services themselves. Political challenges in the U.S. could also impact us; we have about $50 million of U.S. business with this customer that could be taken away if they're banned. However, minimum commitments mitigate our exposure. If they are banned, we'd have less revenue, but if they continue operating, there's potential upside to our range. -
Growth Outlook and 10% CAGR Confidence
Q: How can we be confident in achieving a 10% CAGR amidst current low growth?
A: We expect growth to accelerate as the drag from delivery stabilizes. Security franchises, though slowing, are still growing, and new products like Guardicore and API Security in large markets will drive growth. Investments in go-to-market changes and sales productivity will also contribute. Compute is transforming, with near-term revenue flattening but offering a bigger opportunity through ISV partnerships and a more robust offering. -
Transformation in Compute Business
Q: What's driving the slowdown in compute growth, and how are you addressing it?
A: Compute growth is affected by the decline in legacy application services like net storage, which we're end-of-lifing. We're shifting focus to cloud infrastructure services, accelerating growth in that area. We're partnering with ISVs for products like transcoding, moving these to partners to invest more in faster-growing infrastructure services. -
Go-to-Market Strategy Changes
Q: How are you minimizing disruption from go-to-market changes?
A: We're avoiding account breakage by not making changes all at once; it's a 2-year process. Adding specialized resources helps with cross-selling and hunting for new customers. We're working with a large consulting firm to carefully manage the transition from hunting to farming, aiming to minimize disruption. -
Edge AI and Inference Opportunities
Q: How are AI advancements like DeepSeek impacting Akamai's edge inference?
A: DeepSeek validates our cloud infrastructure design. Entities are already running DeepSeek on our platform, which doesn't require giant GPUs and can run on lighter-weight GPUs at the edge. This opens many use cases for edge inference, making AI applications more economically viable. -
Compute Business Profitability
Q: How is compute profitable, leveraging your network assets?
A: We efficiently move more data than most, allowing us to offer better pricing than hyperscalers, particularly for data-intensive applications. Our distributed platform brings compute closer to users, enhancing performance and scalability. Synergies in backbone, operations, engineering, and go-to-market reduce operating expenses, driving profitability. -
Edgio Acquisition Impact
Q: How does the Edgio acquisition affect customer retention and pricing?
A: We've completed migration, with the Edgio network shut down, and don't anticipate significant churn. We were selective in customer retention, which may provide upsell opportunities. Fewer players in the market could lead to better pricing; we're seeing some rationalization and longer contract terms with high-volume customers. -
Operating Margin Outlook
Q: What will it take to return to a 30% operating margin over time?
A: Margin expansion will come from a mix shift towards security and compute. Scaling the business with revenue growth will drop additional growth to the bottom line. Go-to-market changes are funded by prior actions, and we'll invest responsibly in the future. -
Potential Tariff Impacts
Q: Are you concerned about potential tariff impacts and higher costs?
A: While it's tough to predict, we can adjust supply chains, possibly shifting server builds to Canada and Mexico. We've accelerated some investments, with an impact of $10 million to $15 million, which isn't significant. We're exploring passing costs through pricing strategies if necessary. -
Exposure to U.S. Federal Government
Q: How significant is your exposure to U.S. federal government spending?
A: We sell to the government, but it's not a significant portion of our business. We haven't modeled any material impact from potential cost-cutting efforts; we anticipate regular business.