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Akoya Biosciences, Inc. (AKYA)·Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2024 revenue rebounded 26.2% sequentially to $23.2M, with gross margin expanding to 57.8% from 45.7% in Q1; operating expenses fell 18.3% QoQ and 22.0% YoY, materially narrowing operating losses.
  • Instrument placements recovered to 51 units and instrument revenue jumped 70.4% QoQ, while reagents grew 5.6% QoQ and 27% YoY; management highlighted a fully operational manufacturing center resolving earlier reagent constraints.
  • Guidance was cut again: FY24 revenue now $96–$104M (prior $104–$112M in May; initial $114–$118M in March), but the company reiterated a target of operating cash flow breakeven exiting 2024, supported by cost reductions and margin initiatives.
  • Key stock-reaction catalysts: sequential growth and margin expansion versus Q1, the guidance reset and cost actions (~35% workforce reduction vs YE23), and clinical momentum (Acrivon assay breakthrough designation, China HT NMPA Class II approval).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong sequential rebound: revenue +26.2% QoQ to $23.2M; gross margin up to 57.8% from 45.7% in Q1; loss from operations improved to $(11.1)M from $(21.6)M.
  • Instruments led the recovery: 51 placements, instrument revenue +70.4% QoQ; installed base reached 1,264, the largest in the industry per management.
  • Manufacturing Center of Excellence fully operational, resolving reagent availability and enabling margin improvements; CEO: “Our second-quarter revenue showed a strong rebound… while we also position the company to achieve near-term operating cash flow breakeven.”

What Went Wrong

  • Guidance cut reflects pacing and macro: FY24 guidance lowered to $96–$104M due to the scale and pace of rebound and continued capital spending pressure; management chose a “tightened outlook” for H2.
  • Net loss remained high: Q2 net loss $(13.149)M, EPS $(0.27), with interest expense still a notable drag.
  • APAC/China headwinds persist; RUO trends unchanged and stimulus impact unlikely until 2025; CRO utilization contracted as biopharma pulled projects in-house.

Financial Results

MetricQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)$26.487 $18.350 $23.164
Net Loss per Share (Basic/Diluted)$(0.22) $(0.48) $(0.27)
Gross Margin (%)62.7% 46.0% 57.8%
Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)$26.059 $29.964 $24.470
Loss from Operations ($USD Millions)$(9.439) $(21.585) $(11.084)

Segment breakdown (reported line items):

MetricQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Product Revenue ($USD Millions)$16.691 $12.140 $15.926
Service & Other Revenue ($USD Millions)$9.796 $6.210 $7.238

Selected sub-components (management disclosures):

MetricQ1 2024Q2 2024
Instrument Revenue ($USD Millions)$4.9 $8.3
Reagent Revenue ($USD Millions)$7.0 $7.4
Service & Other Revenue ($USD Millions)$6.2 $7.2
Instruments Placed (Units)30 51

KPIs

KPIQ4 2023Q1 2024Q2 2024
Installed Base (Total Units)1,183 1,213 1,264
Installed Base Detail342 PC / 841 PI 354 PC / 859 PI 374 PC / 890 PI
Annualized Reagent Pull-through (PCF)N/A~$53k Low–mid $50k
Annualized Reagent Pull-through (HT)N/A~$40k High $30k
Publications (Cumulative)1,160 1,307 1,450
Cash & Marketable Securities ($USD Millions)$83.1 (cash) $61.6 (cash+securities) $48.7 (cash+securities)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$114–$118 (Mar-24) $96–$104 (Aug-24) Lowered
Revenue ($USD Millions)FY 2024$104–$112 (May-24) $96–$104 (Aug-24) Lowered
Operating Cash FlowFY 2024 ExitBreakeven target maintained (Mar/May) Breakeven target maintained (Aug) Maintained
Gross Margin (Q4 target)Q4 2024N/A“Low-60% range” building blocks (call) New target (qualitative)
OpEx Run-RateQ4 2024N/A~$20–$21M per quarter (call) New target (qualitative)
Adjusted EBITDAFY 2024 ExitN/A“Positioned to achieve adjusted EBITDA positivity” New target (qualitative)

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4’23 and Q1’24)Current Period (Q2’24)Trend
Manufacturing Center of ExcellenceQ1: Launch impacted reagent fulfillment, delayed instruments; facility now fully operational, aiming margin expansion. Fully operational; catalog refreshed; on-time delivery metrics achieved; expected margin benefits. Positive normalization; margin tailwind emerging
Sales Cycles / Capital BudgetsQ1: Elongated cycles; NIH/EU funding pressure. Cycles remain elongated; guidance reduction reflects tighter H2 visibility. Persistent headwind
Instruments & PlacementsQ4: Record revenue; strong services/reagents mix. 51 placements; instrument revenue +70% QoQ; no pull-forward. Recovery toward historical run-rate
Reagents & Pull-throughQ1: Reagents +23% YoY; PCF ~$53k, HT ~$40k pull-through. Reagents $7.4M (+27% YoY); PCF low–mid $50k, HT high $30k. Stable/improving
China / APACQ1: APAC ~18% of revenue; stimulus chatter; elongated cycles. HT received NMPA Class II; RUO trends unchanged; stimulus impact likely 2025. Long-dated catalyst; near-term neutral
Pricing / CompetitionQ1: Competitive demo placements rising. Winning head-to-head on plex/throughput; minority of cases; demo placement trend persists. Competitive posture improving
CRO UtilizationQ1: CRO network strong; high-plex offerings key. CRO utilization contracted as biopharma internalizes; services grew YoY/QoQ. Mixed: CRO headwind; services diversified

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Our second-quarter revenue showed a strong rebound with 26% sequential top-line growth and a stable year-over-year performance… poised to lead the spatial biology market from discovery to diagnostics… achieve near-term operating cash flow breakeven.”
  • CFO on H2 building blocks: “By Q4… run rate OpEx… $20–$21 million… at a margin… low-60% range… you pretty quickly can get to… positive… cash from operations.”
  • CEO on guidance rationale: “The scale and the pace of the bounce back in Q2… while meaningful, it was going to have a pretty big ask for the second half bounce.”
  • CEO on competition: “We are routinely winning… because of… higher plex… larger imaging area… increased throughput… [and] the value of the PhenoCycler-Fusion as a 2-in-1 system.”

Q&A Highlights

  • Guidance reduction: Driven by tighter H2 outlook and persistent capital pressure; no pull-forward in Q2; placements recovered but vertical ramp without reguide would have been a “pretty accelerated ask.”
  • Cash flow breakeven mechanics: Run-rate OpEx ~$20–$21M by Q4; gross margin low-60% target; mix and utilization to drive margin; working capital timing also a lever.
  • Manufacturing/COE: Fully operational; reagent catalog remanufactured; efficiencies supported cost reductions; deferred contracted clinical revenues expected in H2.
  • Regional/End-market dynamics: APAC ~18% of revenue with China ~60–70% of APAC; CRO utilization contracted; academia/biopharma capital pressure persistent; seasonality: Q1 smallest, Q4 largest.

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus for AKYA was unavailable via our estimates tool; as a result, we cannot quantify beat/miss versus consensus for Q2 2024. Consensus comparisons will need updating when S&P Global mapping is available.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Margin and cost execution offset softer topline: Q2 GM 57.8% and OpEx down materially; management’s low-60% GM target plus run-rate OpEx <$21M by Q4 underpin operating cash flow breakeven ambitions.
  • Instruments recovered to 51 placements with strong QoQ growth; sustainment into H2 depends on elongated sales cycles and capital budgets—watch conversion rates and seasonal Q4 skew.
  • Guidance reset to $96–$104M reflects prudence; further reductions seem tied to macro/capex or execution on instrument pipeline; monitor H2 services and clinical milestone recognition.
  • Clinical catalysts are building: Acrivon CDx program, NeraCare melanoma partnership, and China HT NMPA Class II approval—potential medium-term revenue diversification and strategic moat in spatial proteomics diagnostics.
  • Competitive stance improved: wins in head-to-heads on plex/throughput; demo placement trend persists—expect selective demo participation to protect share while driving reagent pull-through.
  • Liquidity trajectory: cash+securities $48.7M at Q2; reduced burn aided by headcount cuts (~35% vs YE23) and margin mix; breakeven exit hinges on revenue mix and working capital discipline.
  • Actionable: Position for margin-driven rerating if H2 revenue ramps and GM expands; conversely, prolonged capex headwinds or slower instrument conversions could pressure the path to breakeven and prompt further guidance conservatism.

Appendix: Additional Q2 Press Releases

  • Earnings date announcement (July 15, 2024).