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Astera Labs, Inc. (ALAB)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 delivered material upside: revenue $191.9M (+20% QoQ, +150% YoY), GAAP diluted EPS $0.29, and non‑GAAP diluted EPS $0.44; operating cash flow reached a record $135.4M, establishing a higher base led by PCIe 6 and Scorpio fabric switch ramp .
  • Results beat Wall Street: revenue beat by ~$19.5M and non‑GAAP EPS beat by ~$0.12 versus consensus; strength driven by Scorpio P-Series volume production and signal conditioning across PCIe scale‑up and Ethernet scale‑out on custom ASIC platforms; both revenue and EPS beats are significant *.
  • Guidance: Q3 revenue $203–$210M, GAAP GM ~75%, GAAP EPS $0.23–$0.24; non‑GAAP GM ~75%, non‑GAAP EPS $0.38–$0.39; OpEx rising on R&D investment for next‑gen fabrics (including UALink) .
  • Strategic catalysts: Scorpio exceeded 10% of total revenue in Q2, with 10+ customers engaged on X-Series scale‑up fabrics; management reiterated Scorpio’s path to be the largest product line over the next several years; expanding ecosystem with NVIDIA (NVLink Fusion), AMD (Advancing AI), Alchip (ASIC integration) .

Note: Values with asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Scorpio ramp and mix: Scorpio exceeded 10% of revenue, ramping P‑Series into volume production for PCIe 6 scale‑out; 10+ engagements on X‑Series for scale‑up fabrics, positioning anchor sockets and higher per‑accelerator dollar content .
  • Beat on revenue and EPS: Sequential growth +20% to $191.9M with non‑GAAP EPS $0.44; strength from PCIe 6 portfolio (retimers, fabric switches) and signal conditioning across custom ASIC platforms .
  • Margin execution and cash generation: Non‑GAAP gross margin 76.0% and operating margin 39.2%; operating cash flow $135.4M, ending cash and securities at ~$1.065B .

Management quotes:

  • “Strong sequential revenue growth of 20 percent, driving meaningful upside to earnings and cash flow from operations.” – CEO Jitendra Mohan .
  • “Scorpio exceeded 10% of total revenue…fastest ramping product line in the history of Astera Labs.” – CEO Jitendra Mohan .

What Went Wrong

  • Gross margin expected to ease near‑term: Q3 guide to ~75% reflects growing Taurus hardware module contribution (lower margin vs standalone silicon); long‑term target remains ~70% GM .
  • Tax rate volatility: Non‑GAAP tax rate jumps to ~20% in Q3 due to a law change catch‑up, normalizing to ~15% in Q4 and ~13% longer‑term; near‑term EPS impact versus prior lower rate .
  • Scale‑up timing: X‑Series scale‑up shipments largely preproduction in 2025; full volume production expected through 2026, pushing out the largest-dollar attach opportunity .

Financial Results

Core P&L vs Prior Periods and YoY

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$141.1 $159.4 $191.9
GAAP Gross Margin (%)74.9% 75.8%
GAAP Operating Income ($M)$11.3 $39.8
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.18 $0.29
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (%)74.1% 74.9% 76.0%
Non-GAAP Operating Margin (%)34.3% 33.7% 39.2%
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.37 $0.33 $0.44
MetricQ2 2024Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$76.9 $191.9
GAAP Gross Margin (%)77.9% 75.8%
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.05) $0.29
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.13 $0.44

Actual vs Wall Street Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricQ2 2025 ConsensusQ2 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD)$172,459,310*$191,925,000
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$0.32416*$0.44

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ2 2025
Operating Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$135.4
Cash and Cash Equivalents ($M)$162.3
Marketable Securities ($M)$902.8
Total Cash + Securities ($M)~$1,065.1
Interest Income ($M)$10.9
SBC Expense (Total, $000s)$35,474
Non-GAAP OpEx ($M)$75.2 (implied from reconciliations)

Segment breakdown: the company does not report formal segment revenue; management cites strength across Aries (retimers), Taurus (Ethernet AEC modules), Leo (CXL controllers preproduction), and Scorpio (fabric switches), with Scorpio exceeding 10% of revenue in Q2 .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue ($M)Q3 2025N/A$203–$210 New
GAAP Gross Margin (%)Q3 2025N/A~75% New
GAAP OpEx ($M)Q3 2025N/A~$116–$120 New
GAAP Tax Rate (%)Q3 2025N/A~10% New
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)Q3 2025N/A$0.23–$0.24 New
Non-GAAP Gross Margin (%)Q3 2025N/A~75% New
Non-GAAP OpEx ($M)Q3 2025N/A~$76–$80 New
Non-GAAP Tax Rate (%)Q3 2025N/A~20% (law change catch-up) New
Non-GAAP Diluted EPS ($)Q3 2025N/A$0.38–$0.39 New

Context: CFO noted the non‑GAAP tax rate increase in Q3 is due to a law change; expects ~15% in Q4 and ~13% longer‑term .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q4 2024 and Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
Scorpio fabrics (P & X)Launched; P ramp expected 2H25; X preproduction; Scorpio to become largest product line over time P ramped to volume; >10% revenue; 10+ X-Series customers engaged; X preproduction in 2025, high-volume through 2026 Accelerating adoption; expanding customer engagements
PCIe 6 portfolioAries 6 retimers/gearboxes first‑to‑market; interoperability demos; late Q2 volume timing PCIe 6 ramp drove top-line upside; continued demand for signal conditioning on custom ASIC platforms Execution delivered revenue upside
UALink (open scale-up standard)Spec released; 2026 sampling; multibillion market opportunity by 2029 Strong interest among hyperscalers; natural progression from PCIe; broad open ecosystem; AMD endorsement noted Building momentum; medium-term catalyst (2026–2027)
NVLink Fusion (NVIDIA)Ecosystem collaboration emerging Expanded collaboration to support NVLink Fusion scale-up networks Strengthening proprietary scale-up path alongside open standards
Taurus (Ethernet AEC)400G growth in 2H24; 800G broader adoption targeted in 2026 Growth in Q3/Q4 expected; near-term 50G/lane, diversification to 100G/lane in 2026 Stable near-term; larger ramp with 800G in 2026
CXL (Leo controllers)Preproduction; volume ramps in 2H25; multiple high‑memory use cases Preproduction shipments continue toward platform qualifications On track for 2H25
Taxes and marginsQ1 non‑GAAP tax 7.1%; long‑term GM ~70% target Q2 non‑GAAP tax ~9.4%; Q3 tax ~20% (law change), normalizes later; GM ~75% guide Near-term tax headwind; margins stable around 75% guide

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Scorpio exceeded 10% of total revenue…fastest ramping product line…we won new designs across multiple new customers during the quarter” .
  • COO: “We are engaged with over 10 unique AI platform and cloud infrastructure providers…Scorpio X Series to begin shipping for customized scale up architectures in late 2025 with high volume in 2026” .
  • CFO: “Non‑GAAP EPS $0.44; operating cash flow $135.4M; Q3 revenue $203–$210M; non‑GAAP GM ~75%; non‑GAAP tax rate ~20% given recent law change” .
  • Strategy: Expanded NVIDIA NVLink Fusion collaboration; AMD keynote participation; partnership with Alchip to integrate compute and connectivity; leading role in UALink Consortium .

Q&A Highlights

  • Scorpio as anchor socket: Management emphasized Scorpio X’s role interconnecting GPUs with lower latency/higher throughput, leveraging COSMOS for diagnostics; attach drives additional Aries/Taurus sockets .
  • UALink vs NVLink vs Ethernet: UALink highlighted for open ecosystem, memory semantics, low latency and high utilization; NVLink remains widely deployed; Ethernet scale‑up attempts face latency/efficiency tradeoffs; UALink expected broader adoption over time .
  • Margin/tax trajectory: Q3 non‑GAAP tax ~20% due to catch‑up; normalizes ~15% in Q4 and ~13% longer‑term; gross margin trending toward long‑term ~70% as hardware module mix grows .
  • Taurus ramp: Near‑term 50G/lane; diversification to 100G/lane and broader multi‑vendor supply chain with volume from 2026; business model targets ramp scale via cable vendors .
  • Scale‑up timing: 2025 predominantly preproduction; volume scale‑up connectivity ramps across 2026; X‑Series expected to outgrow P‑Series given higher-dollar sockets .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 beat: Revenue $191.9M vs $172.5M consensus; non‑GAAP EPS $0.44 vs $0.324 consensus — both significant beats driven by PCIe 6 and Scorpio P ramp on custom racks and robust signal conditioning demand on ASIC platforms *.
  • Q3 alignment: Guidance revenue $203–$210M and non‑GAAP EPS $0.38–$0.39 broadly in line with consensus of $206.4M and $0.39*, noting tax rate step‑up could temper EPS optics near‑term *.

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Momentum and mix: Establishing a higher revenue base with Scorpio P ramp; X‑Series engagements (>10 customers) support 2026 scale‑up inflection and higher per‑accelerator content — a medium‑term revenue and margin lever .
  • Near‑term print quality: Strong Q2 beat on both top‑line and EPS; Q3 guide implies continued sequential growth with GM ~75% despite mix shift toward modules; watch OpEx growth in R&D .
  • Standards positioning: Balanced strategy across NVLink Fusion and open UALink; UALink adoption strengthens multi‑vendor ecosystem and Astera’s platform role; 2026+ catalyst .
  • Cash strength: $135.4M operating cash flow; ~$1.065B cash/securities provides investment firepower to accelerate portfolio and ecosystem partnerships (e.g., Alchip) .
  • Watch tax optics: Q3 non‑GAAP tax rate step-up (~20%) temporarily depresses EPS; normalized lower rates in Q4 improve EPS conversion .
  • Risk checks: Module mix can cap gross margin versus silicon; scale‑up ramp timing (preproduction in 2025, volume in 2026) impacts revenue phasing; macro/tariff dynamics monitored, China exposure <10% revenue historically .
  • Trading lens: Narrative favors rack‑scale AI connectivity leadership and open-standard fabrics; sustained beats and visible ramp to 2026 scale‑up should support estimate revisions and multiple resilience, with tax normalization a late‑year EPS tailwind .

Appendix: Additional Data Citations

  • Q2 press release details (financials, outlook, reconciliations) .
  • 8‑K Item 2.02 and Exhibits with full financial tables .
  • Q2 earnings call prepared remarks and Q&A .
  • Prior quarter calls for trend: Q1 2025 , Q4 2024 .