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    Astera Labs (ALAB)

    ALAB Q3 2024: Strong Growth Outlook, Scorpio to Hit 10% Revenue

    Reported on Nov 4, 2024 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$69.65Last close (Nov 4, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$86.35Open (Nov 5, 2024)
    Price Change
    $16.70(+23.98%)
    • Diversified Revenue Growth: The Q&A highlighted that robust visibility is driven by multiple product lines—such as Aries, Taurus, and the emerging Scorpio family—which serve both third-party GPU-based platforms and internally developed ASIC platforms. This diversification supports sequential revenue growth and a broad customer base.
    • Strong Scorpio Ramp & Market Opportunity: Executives noted that the new Scorpio product family is expected to contribute over 10% of revenue in 2025. With design wins in both the P-Series (with a TAM starting at around $1 billion and growing) and X-Series segments, this expansion taps into a rapidly growing market for AI connectivity solutions.
    • Competitive Edge Through COSMOS Software: The integrated COSMOS software stack, built over years of field learnings, provides advanced diagnostics and customization. This solution not only differentiates the company’s offerings but also creates a competitive moat by locking in customer infrastructure needs and easing transitions across product families.
    • Delayed production ramp: The company’s Gen 6 products and LEO solutions remain in preproduction or early design stages, creating uncertainty regarding timely volume production and revenue generation.
    • Execution risk for new product lines: The Scorpio family’s reliance on design wins and extended qualification cycles poses a risk that slow customer adoption could result in lower-than-expected mid-term revenue contributions.
    • Competitive pressures: The possibility that competitors could replicate or improve upon their COSMOS software and related interconnect solutions might erode Astera Labs’ competitive advantage, impacting future margins and market share.
    1. Sequential Growth
      Q: Visibility on sequential growth next quarters?
      A: Management highlighted strong, diversified product ramps—especially in core retimer sales—that give them very high confidence in sequential growth.

    2. Margin Outlook
      Q: Does Scorpio impact overall margins?
      A: They expect Scorpio’s varied margins won’t dilute overall targets, keeping gross margins around 70% despite mix shifts.

    3. Scorpio Ramp
      Q: What is Scorpio’s revenue ramp outlook?
      A: Scorpio is anticipated to exceed 10% of revenues in 2025, driven by both Gen5 and Gen6 design wins.

    4. ASIC Growth
      Q: What drives the ASIC business ramp?
      A: Increased hyperscaler investment in in-house ASIC designs is propelling significant growth for this segment.

    5. Gen6 Production
      Q: When will PCIe Gen6 reach volume production?
      A: While timing depends on customer roadmaps, current design wins indicate mid next year potential.

    6. Content per GPU
      Q: How is average GPU content increasing?
      A: New higher-speed protocols and premium Scorpio product features are lifting dollar content per GPU.

    7. Customer Diversification
      Q: How will customer and product mix diversify?
      A: Revenues will broaden across merchant GPU and custom ASIC platforms, enhancing overall diversification.

    8. COSMOS Software
      Q: What competitive edge does COSMOS provide?
      A: COSMOS delivers rich diagnostics and flexible customization that create a strong, unique software moat.

    9. LEO Timeline
      Q: What is the LEO product timeline?
      A: LEO is set to support key CXL use cases with production volumes expected by mid next year as use cases clarify.

    10. Series Comparison
      Q: How do X and P Series compare?
      A: The P-Series currently meets broad connectivity needs, while the X-Series is poised for a larger future total addressable market.

    11. Attach Rate
      Q: What are the attach rates for Series devices?
      A: P-Series typically sees a 1:1 attach rate per GPU, whereas X-Series attach rates vary based on port configuration.

    12. Taurus Diversification
      Q: How will Taurus engagements diversify?
      A: Taurus is anticipated to expand beyond a single customer, helping diversify revenue into varied application configurations.

    13. Order Delivery
      Q: How is upside order delivery managed?
      A: A robust multi-source supply chain and healthy inventory levels ensure the company can swiftly meet unexpected order upsides.

    14. Retimers & Switches
      Q: Will retimers and switches be deployed together?
      A: They are often deployed in mix-and-match configurations—with COSMOS integration helping ensure cohesive system performance.

    15. Gen6 Share
      Q: Will Gen6 match Gen5 market share?
      A: Early shipments of Gen6 devices show a strong start, and management expects them to be competitive, even as market dynamics evolve.

    16. September Ramp
      Q: What drove strength in September’s ramp?
      A: Strong performance in the Aries product line—serving both third-party GPUs and internal accelerators—underpinned the robust September ramp.

    17. Taurus Growth
      Q: How will Taurus grow in revenue mix?
      A: Although details remain less granular, Taurus revenue is projected to grow as its broader application mix gains traction.

    18. Scorpio Composition
      Q: Is Scorpio revenue dominated by P-Series?
      A: Both P-Series and X-Series contribute to Scorpio revenues, with P leading initially and X gaining over time.

    19. Software Penetration
      Q: How does COSMOS integrate across products?
      A: COSMOS is integrated into both retimer and switch products to deliver comprehensive monitoring and customization, reinforcing its competitive advantage.

    20. CXL Use Cases
      Q: Are CXL use cases maturing as expected?
      A: The LEO product is clarifying its role in CXL-based solutions, with production ramping as key use cases become clearer and more cost-effective.

    Research analysts covering Astera Labs.