ALAB Q3 2024: Strong Growth Outlook, Scorpio to Hit 10% Revenue
- Diversified Revenue Growth: The Q&A highlighted that robust visibility is driven by multiple product lines—such as Aries, Taurus, and the emerging Scorpio family—which serve both third-party GPU-based platforms and internally developed ASIC platforms. This diversification supports sequential revenue growth and a broad customer base.
- Strong Scorpio Ramp & Market Opportunity: Executives noted that the new Scorpio product family is expected to contribute over 10% of revenue in 2025. With design wins in both the P-Series (with a TAM starting at around $1 billion and growing) and X-Series segments, this expansion taps into a rapidly growing market for AI connectivity solutions.
- Competitive Edge Through COSMOS Software: The integrated COSMOS software stack, built over years of field learnings, provides advanced diagnostics and customization. This solution not only differentiates the company’s offerings but also creates a competitive moat by locking in customer infrastructure needs and easing transitions across product families.
- Delayed production ramp: The company’s Gen 6 products and LEO solutions remain in preproduction or early design stages, creating uncertainty regarding timely volume production and revenue generation.
- Execution risk for new product lines: The Scorpio family’s reliance on design wins and extended qualification cycles poses a risk that slow customer adoption could result in lower-than-expected mid-term revenue contributions.
- Competitive pressures: The possibility that competitors could replicate or improve upon their COSMOS software and related interconnect solutions might erode Astera Labs’ competitive advantage, impacting future margins and market share.
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Sequential Growth
Q: Visibility on sequential growth next quarters?
A: Management highlighted strong, diversified product ramps—especially in core retimer sales—that give them very high confidence in sequential growth. -
Margin Outlook
Q: Does Scorpio impact overall margins?
A: They expect Scorpio’s varied margins won’t dilute overall targets, keeping gross margins around 70% despite mix shifts. -
Scorpio Ramp
Q: What is Scorpio’s revenue ramp outlook?
A: Scorpio is anticipated to exceed 10% of revenues in 2025, driven by both Gen5 and Gen6 design wins. -
ASIC Growth
Q: What drives the ASIC business ramp?
A: Increased hyperscaler investment in in-house ASIC designs is propelling significant growth for this segment. -
Gen6 Production
Q: When will PCIe Gen6 reach volume production?
A: While timing depends on customer roadmaps, current design wins indicate mid next year potential. -
Content per GPU
Q: How is average GPU content increasing?
A: New higher-speed protocols and premium Scorpio product features are lifting dollar content per GPU. -
Customer Diversification
Q: How will customer and product mix diversify?
A: Revenues will broaden across merchant GPU and custom ASIC platforms, enhancing overall diversification. -
COSMOS Software
Q: What competitive edge does COSMOS provide?
A: COSMOS delivers rich diagnostics and flexible customization that create a strong, unique software moat. -
LEO Timeline
Q: What is the LEO product timeline?
A: LEO is set to support key CXL use cases with production volumes expected by mid next year as use cases clarify. -
Series Comparison
Q: How do X and P Series compare?
A: The P-Series currently meets broad connectivity needs, while the X-Series is poised for a larger future total addressable market. -
Attach Rate
Q: What are the attach rates for Series devices?
A: P-Series typically sees a 1:1 attach rate per GPU, whereas X-Series attach rates vary based on port configuration. -
Taurus Diversification
Q: How will Taurus engagements diversify?
A: Taurus is anticipated to expand beyond a single customer, helping diversify revenue into varied application configurations. -
Order Delivery
Q: How is upside order delivery managed?
A: A robust multi-source supply chain and healthy inventory levels ensure the company can swiftly meet unexpected order upsides. -
Retimers & Switches
Q: Will retimers and switches be deployed together?
A: They are often deployed in mix-and-match configurations—with COSMOS integration helping ensure cohesive system performance. -
Gen6 Share
Q: Will Gen6 match Gen5 market share?
A: Early shipments of Gen6 devices show a strong start, and management expects them to be competitive, even as market dynamics evolve. -
September Ramp
Q: What drove strength in September’s ramp?
A: Strong performance in the Aries product line—serving both third-party GPUs and internal accelerators—underpinned the robust September ramp. -
Taurus Growth
Q: How will Taurus grow in revenue mix?
A: Although details remain less granular, Taurus revenue is projected to grow as its broader application mix gains traction. -
Scorpio Composition
Q: Is Scorpio revenue dominated by P-Series?
A: Both P-Series and X-Series contribute to Scorpio revenues, with P leading initially and X gaining over time. -
Software Penetration
Q: How does COSMOS integrate across products?
A: COSMOS is integrated into both retimer and switch products to deliver comprehensive monitoring and customization, reinforcing its competitive advantage. -
CXL Use Cases
Q: Are CXL use cases maturing as expected?
A: The LEO product is clarifying its role in CXL-based solutions, with production ramping as key use cases become clearer and more cost-effective.
Research analysts covering Astera Labs.