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    ALBEMARLE (ALB)

    Q2 2024 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Jan 10, 2025 (After Market Close)
    Pre-Earnings Price$93.17Last close (Aug 1, 2024)
    Post-Earnings Price$88.79Open (Aug 2, 2024)
    Price Change
    $-4.38(-4.70%)
    • Albemarle is able to maintain its EBITDA guidance even at lower lithium prices due to volume growth, cost improvements, strong contracts, and additional contributions from Talison JV, with potential for EBITDA to improve if prices recover.
    • The company is proactively adjusting its cost structure and operations to be profitable and competitive even if current lower lithium prices persist, positioning itself for long-term success.
    • Albemarle is advancing Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE) technologies with two pilot projects, which are important for leveraging low-cost resources and supporting future growth.
    • Albemarle is experiencing end market weakness in its specialties business, particularly in electronics, leading to a volume growth of 9% but a price decline; the Chinese bromine spot price decreased from $3.11 per metric ton in Q1 to $2.86 per metric ton in Q2.
    • Rising inventories of lithium salts and price pressures in China are concerns; the company notes that most non-integrated producers are operating at a loss, and there is a need for caution given the demand versus supply situation in the lithium market.
    • Albemarle's future profitability is vulnerable to market pricing pressures; if lithium prices fall below $12 per kilogram, their EBITDA forecasts may not hold, indicating dependency on maintaining current pricing assumptions.
    1. EBITDA Outlook Amid Price Pressures
      Q: Can EBITDA improve if prices recover to $15/kg in H2?
      A: Even if prices remain at July levels of $12–$15 per kilogram, we can maintain our forecast. If prices improve, EBITDA could be higher due to factors like volume mix, additional Talison volumes, contracts, and cost savings initiatives. That's the best visibility we have at the moment.

    2. $1 Billion Charge Breakdown
      Q: Can you break down the $1 billion charge in Q3 and how much is cash?
      A: Of the roughly $1 billion charge, at least 60% is noncash, representing write-offs of existing balance sheet items. We'll refine this number further in Q3 and provide a better assessment of the cash component then.

    3. CapEx Reduction and Sustaining Capital
      Q: Is corporate CapEx below $1 billion next year feasible given efforts to lower sustaining capital?
      A: We're challenging our sustaining capital estimates and see an opportunity to reduce CapEx aggressively without unnecessary risks. Many assets are still ramping and new, so we've been conservative before. We're working through this now and will share more in the next couple of quarters.

    4. Impact of Kemerton Curtailments
      Q: What do Kemerton capacity curtailments mean for Wodgina production?
      A: The curtailments at Kemerton don't impact Wodgina production. We're taking out conversion capacity but continue to operate both Greenbushes and Wodgina resources; it's not related to Kemerton.

    5. Volume Growth Outlook Amid Reduced CapEx
      Q: Will you still grow volumes into 2025 with reduced growth CapEx?
      A: Yes, we have a couple of years of growth from assets on the ground and ramping. We'll continue to grow in 2025 and into 2026, but without further investment, growth will plateau. Adjustments at Kemerton give us more product mix flexibility but limit geographic diversity—a trade-off we're making.

    6. Contract Enforcement and Customer Relations
      Q: How are customer dynamics and contracts unfolding amid market pricing changes?
      A: We're helping customers remain competitive while respecting our contracts to continue investing on their behalf. All contracts are performing, and we expect that to continue. We're working on sourcing flexibility to aid their supply chains while maintaining contract fundamentals.

    7. Shift to Carbonate-based Batteries
      Q: Why is there a shift to carbonate-based batteries, and does it affect Kemerton II?
      A: There's a shift toward carbonate due to the preference for LFP technology, especially in China. This affects our product mix; Kemerton produces hydroxide, but we can toll the resource for carbonate if needed, offering more flexibility. This influenced our decision regarding Kemerton II and III.

    8. Improved Cash Conversion and Cash Flow
      Q: What's driving the improved cash conversion, and how does it affect cash flow this year?
      A: We're now expecting up to 50% cash conversion, towards the high end of our historical range. This is driven by better-than-expected dividends from equity companies, notably additional offtake at Talison, and positive results from working capital initiatives releasing cash.

    9. China Lithium Market Dynamics
      Q: What's happening in China regarding lithium capacity shutdowns?
      A: Capacity shutdowns haven't changed materially—some reduction of tens of thousands of tons due to low prices. Non-integrated producers are under pressure, with most operating at a loss. Seasonal brine production is ramping up, substituting decreased petalite production. Rising lithium salt inventories are a concern.

    10. Specialties Business Outlook
      Q: Is weakness in specialties due to destocking or end-market weakness?
      A: We're seeing slower recovery than expected, particularly in electronics. We had 9% volume growth but price declines due to lower Chinese bromine spot prices. We see positive signs with recovering electronics and continued strength in oil and gas, pharma, and ag, expecting sequential growth through the rest of the year.

    11. Conditions to Restart Kemerton II
      Q: What needs to happen to restart Kemerton II, and what's the cost and timeline?
      A: We need to optimize Train 1 before restarting Train 2. Market conditions need to improve. Restarting Kemerton II won't be immediate; there's a timeframe and some cost, including staffing, but it's not dramatic from a capital standpoint.

    12. CapEx Reduction Post-Kemerton Decision
      Q: How does saving $200–$300 million from Kemerton affect next year's CapEx?
      A: Idling Kemerton II will lower CapEx in 2025 and 2026. We're focusing on reducing CapEx quickly without unnecessary risk and will share more in upcoming quarters.

    13. DLE Projects Progress
      Q: What's the progress and requirements for DLE projects in Latin America?
      A: We're advancing two DLE pilot projects—one in Arkansas and another at Salar de Atacama. The key is consistent operation in the field. We're not waiting on government support and are moving projects forward to leverage low-cost resources for growth.

    14. Accounts Receivable Factoring Program
      Q: How does your factoring process work, and what impact will it have?
      A: We've established an accounts receivable factoring program, currently untapped. We'll use it when we need liquidity, and at that point, it will reflect in working capital results. For now, it's an available resource.

    15. R&D in Advanced Battery Technologies
      Q: How are you addressing lithiation challenges in silicon-based anodes?
      A: We're focusing on advanced lithium-based materials like prelithiation to support silicon anodes for higher-capacity batteries. While adoption may be faster in non-EV technologies, progressive OEMs are investing in this area, and it's part of our partnerships with customers beyond just supply.

    Research analysts covering ALBEMARLE.