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ALAMO GROUP INC (ALG)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered a clean EPS beat and in-line revenue: diluted EPS $2.64 vs SPGI consensus $2.2067*, revenue $391.0M vs consensus $391.1M*, with operating margin rising to 11.4% from 8.9% in Q4 and backlog up 5.1% sequentially .
  • Division mix: Industrial Equipment remained strong (net sales +12.5% YoY; operating margin 13.7%), while Vegetation Management showed sequential recovery in margin to 8.1% despite a 26.8% YoY sales decline .
  • Management guides to sequential expansion in sales and margins in Q2 and Q3, finishing ag facility capex in Q2 with full benefits in Q3; SG&A down >10% YoY and interest expense down ~50% YoY, supporting improving profitability .
  • Risk lens: evolving tariffs could lift input costs (~1–2% of COGS modeled); mitigation includes shifting production to U.S./Canada and pricing discipline. Pricing power remains reasonable in governmental/industrial; vegetation pricing still muted near-term .
  • Capital allocation and potential stock catalysts: quarterly dividend $0.30 declared; very active M&A pipeline with multiple opportunities in motion (tuck-ins and larger deals) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Industrial Equipment net sales hit $227.1M (+12.5% YoY) with operating margin 13.7%, aided by strong demand in vacuum trucks, excavators, and snow removal equipment; orders up nearly 59% vs Q4 and backlog rose to $513.2M (+6.6% vs year-end) .
  • Cost actions drove margin improvement: SG&A fell >10% YoY; operating margin rose 40 bps YoY and 250 bps vs Q4; interest expense fell ~50% YoY on lower net debt (“best since Q3 2023”) .
  • Working capital discipline: DSO improved by 6 days YoY to 78; inventory down YoY; cash rose to $200.3M; net debt fell to $16.5M (down $183.2M YoY) .

Quote: “We were also pleased to see that the benefits from our second-half 2024 cost reduction efforts were reflected in our first quarter 2025 results… SG&A expenses declined more than 10%, and interest expense fell by almost 50% as our debt continued to decline” .

What Went Wrong

  • Consolidated net sales declined 8.1% YoY to $391.0M on Vegetation Management weakness; consolidated operating income dipped to $44.5M from $47.0M YoY .
  • Vegetation Management sales fell 26.8% YoY to $163.9M; EBITDA margin declined YoY to 12.2% (from 13.0%), with Europe and South America softer; backlog -30.3% YoY (but improved sequentially) .
  • Currency translation modestly pressured reported net sales (-1.4% impact), highlighting external headwinds layered on volume declines .

Financial Results

Consolidated performance vs prior periods

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$401.3 $385.3 $391.0
Diluted EPS ($USD)$2.28 $2.33 $2.64
Gross Margin %25.1% 23.8% 26.3%
Operating Margin %10.0% 8.9% 11.4%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$27.4 $28.1 $31.8
Net Income Margin %6.8% 7.3% 8.1%

Actuals vs SPGI consensus

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue Actual ($USD Millions)$401.301 $385.323 $390.950
Revenue Consensus ($USD Millions)$404.300*$396.850*$391.075*
EPS Actual ($USD, Primary/Normalized)$2.38*$2.39*$2.64*
EPS Consensus ($USD, Primary/Normalized)$2.4625*$2.2775*$2.20667*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Notes: SPGI “Primary EPS” tracks normalized EPS; Q4 2024 SPGI actual reflects $2.39 (ex-separation costs), while GAAP diluted EPS was $2.33 .

Segment breakdown

SegmentQ3 2024 Net Sales ($MM)Q3 2024 Op Margin %Q4 2024 Net Sales ($MM)Q4 2024 Op Margin %Q1 2025 Net Sales ($MM)Q1 2025 Op Margin %
Vegetation Management$190.1 6.5% $159.8 4.0% $163.9 8.1%
Industrial Equipment$211.2 13.1% $225.5 12.4% $227.1 13.7%

KPIs and balance sheet

KPIQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Backlog ($MM)$728.8 $668.6 $702.7
Industrial Backlog ($MM)$543.4 $481.5 $513.2
Vegetation Backlog ($MM)$185.4 $187.1 $189.5
Cash & Equivalents ($MM)$140.0 $197.3 $200.3
Inventory ($MM)$372.0 $343.4 $356.4
Net Debt ($MM)$84.1 $23.2 $16.5
DSO (days)78
Operating Cash Flow ($MM)$14.2

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Consolidated operating margin trajectoryFY 2025Mgmt “above 10%” expected for 2025 Sequential expansion in Q2 and Q3; outlook “cautiously optimistic” Maintained/strengthened
Vegetation Management marginQ2–Q3 2025Sequential improvement expected post consolidations Sequential margin improvement to continue; full benefits after Q2 capex completion (visible in Q3) Raised confidence on timing
Industrial sales/marginsQ2–Q3 2025Mid-single digit organic growth expected entering 2025 Sales and margin expansion expected in Q2 and Q3; backlog quality “really good” Maintained/affirmed
Tax rateQ1 2025FY 2024 effective ~22.5% ~24% effective tax rate in Q1 Higher
Tariffs/COGS impact2025Monitoring tariff risk; price discipline ~1–2% of COGS modeled impact; mitigation via sourcing/efficiency/pricing Clarified magnitude
DividendQ2 2025$0.26 in 2024; raised to $0.30 in Feb $0.30 declared for April 2025 Maintained at higher level

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ-2 (Q3 2024)Q-1 (Q4 2024)Current (Q1 2025)Trend
Tariffs/macroCautious on elections; tariff risk flagged; share repurchase authorized Mitigation via shifting production; reciprocal tariffs could drive input inflation Modeled ~1–2% COGS impact; shifting production; pushing back on suppliers Risk acknowledged; mitigation detailed
Vegetation recoveryOrders stabilized; backlog $185M; consolidations underway Expect modest recovery in 2H 2025; largest consolidations completed Fifth sequential quarter bookings improvement; sequential margin +410 bps; governmental ag orders stronger Gradual improvement
Industrial demandStrong governmental/contractor demand; lead times 3–4 months Expect continued strength; mid-single-digit growth; margin expansion Sales +12.5% YoY; record operating income; backlog >$0.5B Strong/expanding
Cost actions/SG&AWorkforce reductions; $25–30M annual savings targeted Savings flowing; double-digit operating margin; SG&A reductions continue SG&A down >10% YoY; efficiency gains to continue; further consolidations planned (EU & NA) Structural margin uplift
M&A pipelineActive for 2025; balance sheet capacity “Most active since pre-pandemic”; buybacks opportunistic “Most active M&A market” in years; several live deals; tuck-ins too Elevated activity
Pricing powerN/AMaintained pricing in industrial Good pricing power in governmental/industrial; vegetation limited near-term Mixed (strong in industrial)
Steel/input costsN/AN/ASteel price pass-through processes in place; monthly tracking vs indices Managed

Management Commentary

  • “Industrial Equipment orders exceeded the strong pace set in the first quarter of 2024… up nearly 59% versus the fourth quarter of 2024… Backlog in the Industrial Equipment Division was $513 million, up $31.7 million or 6.6% from the backlog at the end of 2024” .
  • “Vegetation Management Division’s… operating margin improved 410 basis points sequentially. We are pleased to see savings from our cost reduction actions taken in 2024” .
  • “We expect profitability should continue to improve as we enter the seasonally stronger second and third quarters… full benefit of the actions we took at the end of 2024 [will be] in the third quarter” .
  • “We are enjoying an increase in the number of opportunities for acquisitions of meaningful scale… This is the most active M&A market we’ve experienced for several years” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Tariffs: Reciprocal tariffs modeled at ~1–2% of COGS (5% on purchased materials), with production shifts to U.S./Canada and supplier pushback to mitigate cost inflation .
  • Pricing power: Strong in governmental/industrial due to favorable lead times; limited in vegetation until demand normalizes .
  • M&A capital allocation: M&A is top priority; buybacks authorized but secondary to accretive deals; multiple large and tuck-in targets actively pursued .
  • Vegetation outlook: Fifth straight quarter of bookings improvement; dealers beginning to restock; expectation of back-half 2025 revenue growth as backlog builds .
  • Q2 outlook: Sequential sales and margin expansion expected in both divisions; Industrial backlog quality “really good” supports trajectory .

Estimates Context

  • Q1 2025: EPS $2.64 vs consensus $2.2067* (beat); revenue $390.95M vs $391.08M* (in line) .
  • Prior quarters: Q4 2024 EPS $2.39* vs $2.2775* (beat) and revenue $385.32M vs $396.85M* (miss); Q3 2024 EPS $2.38* vs $2.4625* (miss) and revenue $401.30M vs $404.30M* (miss). Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Implications: Ongoing cost actions and sequential vegetation recovery should bias EPS estimates higher near-term; revenue estimates likely modestly raised for Industrial, maintained for Vegetation pending tariff clarity and EU/SA demand trends .
MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Revenue Actual ($MM)$401.301 $385.323 $390.950
Revenue Consensus ($MM)$404.300*$396.850*$391.075*
EPS Actual ($, Primary/Normalized)$2.38*$2.39*$2.64*
EPS Consensus ($, Primary/Normalized)$2.4625*$2.2775*$2.20667*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Quality beat: EPS beat driven by cost discipline and margin expansion; revenue held in-line despite vegetation headwinds—supports upward EPS estimate revisions .
  • Industrial strength durable: Elevated governmental/contractor demand, record operating income, >$0.5B backlog quality—visibility into Q2/Q3 expansion .
  • Vegetation turning: Sequential margin improvement (+410 bps) with bookings/backlog stabilizing; back-half 2025 poised for modest growth as dealer restocking begins .
  • Tariff risk manageable: Modeled ~1–2% COGS impact; production shifts and pricing/efficiency levers in place; watch reciprocal tariffs across components .
  • Balance sheet optionality: Net debt $16.5M, cash $200.3M; active M&A pipeline could add scale/product breadth—near-term deal announcements are a potential catalyst .
  • Capital return: Dividend at $0.30 sustained; buyback authorization in place from Q3 2024 leaves tactical flexibility .
  • Execution focus: Completing ag facility capex in Q2, full benefits in Q3; continued SG&A efficiencies and potential additional consolidations (EU/NA) support margin trajectory .