AG
ALAMO GROUP INC (ALG)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Mixed quarter: revenue grew 4.7% to $420.0M while GAAP EPS fell to $2.10; adjusted EPS was $2.34 (down $0.04 YoY) as gross margin compressed on tariffs and Vegetation Management production inefficiencies .
- Versus S&P Global consensus, ALG beat on revenue ($420.0M vs $407.6M*) but missed on adjusted EPS ($2.34 vs $2.64*) and EBITDA ($51.2M vs $58.8M*) as tariff costs outpaced late-quarter price actions; estimate counts were 4 for both EPS and revenue*.
- Industrial Equipment remained the growth engine: sales +17% YoY and adjusted EBITDA margin 15.5%; Vegetation Management declined 9% with adjusted EBITDA margin 9.7%, with consolidation-related inefficiencies delaying expected margin gains .
- Management guided Q4 sequential revenue down ~4–5% with ~30% decremental to gross profit; tariffs expected at “a little less than 1% of sales” in 2026 (pre-mitigation) with ongoing pricing and procurement offsets; vegetation margin recovery expected over the next 1–2 quarters .
Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus figures.*
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Industrial Equipment delivered its seventh straight quarter of double-digit sales growth (+17% YoY) with broad-based strength and healthy backlog; adjusted EBITDA rose to $38.2M with 15.5% margin .
- Product innovation and portfolio expansion: highlighted a new non‑CDL vacuum truck platform designed for modular build and shipping; Ring‑O‑Matic acquisition broadened trailer‑mounted vacuum offering .
- Balance sheet and cash generation remained strong: YTD operating cash flow $102.4M; cash $244.8M vs debt $209.4M (net cash of ~$35M) supporting M&A pipeline and dividend .
What Went Wrong
- Gross margin fell ~90 bps YoY to 24.2% on Vegetation consolidation inefficiencies and tariffs; SG&A up on CEO transition and acquisition costs ($3.3M in Q3) .
- Vegetation Management sales declined 9% with margin pressure (adj. EBITDA margin 9.7% vs 11.5% YoY); management said productivity improvements are “tracking more slowly than anticipated” .
- Industrial orders moderated (book‑to‑bill <1) and division margins were pressured by tariffs; management expects industrial end‑markets to “cool a bit” into 2026 from extraordinary levels .
Financial Results
Consolidated results – trend (oldest → newest)
Q3 2025 vs prior year (YoY)
Q3 2025 vs S&P Global consensus
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Segment breakdown – Q3 2025
KPIs and balance sheet
Non‑GAAP items in Q3: CEO transition ($0.11 EPS), acquisition/integration ($0.09), restructuring ($0.04); total +$0.24 to GAAP EPS to reach adjusted EPS of $2.34 .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “The Industrial Equipment Division continued to perform exceptionally well, delivering strong year‑over‑year double digit net sales growth for the seventh consecutive quarter.”
- “The degradation in gross margin was primarily due to unforeseen production inefficiencies related to the consolidation of manufacturing facilities in the Vegetation Management Division and due to tariff costs in both divisions.”
- “As we sit today, we expect to make progress on these [Vegetation] initiatives going forward, but it will take one or two more quarters before operations…normalize and yield the full operating efficiencies we anticipate.”
- “A little less than 1% of sales would be the expectation, the gross expectation for tariffs in 2026…we did pass price along in the quarter, not enough to cover those tariffs completely. We'll continue to work to do so along with managing our supply base.”
- Long‑term targets: sales growth 10%+, adjusted operating margin ~15%, adjusted EBITDA margin 18–20%, FCF ≈ 100% of net income .
Q&A Highlights
- Vegetation margins recovery: Management “definitely” sees a path back above 10% without meaningful revenue growth as consolidation efficiencies add 200–400 bps near term, plus procurement/parts mix add 200–300 bps; expects 1–2 quarters to normalize .
- Industrial orders/margins: Orders were down in Q3 (lumpiness, lead‑time reductions, mild end‑market cooling); Q4 margins in the “12–13% zip code” with pricing offsetting some tariff headwinds .
- Tariff magnitude/timing: 2026 gross impact “a little less than 1% of sales” (ex‑truck chassis), with pricing/procurement offsets; YoY effect front‑half‑weighted given no tariffs in Q1’25 .
- Demand sustainability: Post‑stimulus moderation expected, but hydro‑excavation called out as a structurally growing niche (6–7% CAGR) with regulatory support; acquisitions to supplement growth and margins .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 print vs S&P Global consensus: revenue beat ($420.0M vs $407.6M*), adjusted EPS miss ($2.34 vs $2.64*), EBITDA miss ($51.2M vs $58.8M*). Estimate counts: 4 EPS, 4 revenue*.
- Implications: Street likely nudges near‑term EPS/EBITDA lower on tariff drag and Vegetation timing, partially offset by revenue resilience and pricing actions; 2026 tariffs “<1% of sales” guide and procurement programs should limit further margin deterioration .
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Industrial momentum continues but is normalizing; watch order cadence and backlog in Q4/Q1 to gauge 2026 “cooling” trajectory .
- The crux of the near‑term story is Vegetation execution: margin recovery depends on consolidation productivity over the next 1–2 quarters; confirmation here is a key stock catalyst .
- Tariffs are a manageable headwind (~<1% of sales in 2026 gross), but price realization and procurement savings must show up in reported margins; monitor gross margin and segment operating margins for evidence of offsets .
- Strong balance sheet (net cash, robust liquidity) enables continued tuck‑ins; pipeline building and Ring‑O‑Matic demonstrates adjacency logic—expect M&A to support the 10%+ sales growth target .
- Near‑term setup: Q4 seasonally softer with ~4–5% sequential revenue decline and ~30% decremental to gross profit—street models likely need lower Q4 EPS; watch for 2026 margin cadence updates on procurement/parts mix initiatives .
- Longer‑term, management’s 15% adjusted operating and 18–20% adjusted EBITDA margin targets hinge on Vegetation normalization, procurement centralization, and parts/service mix—evidence of progress should rerate the multiple .