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    Ally Financial (ALLY)

    Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

    Reported on Apr 17, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$32.18Last close (Apr 16, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$32.57Open (Apr 17, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.39(+1.21%)
    • Core Focus & Strategic Prioritization: Management’s emphasis on concentrating resources in their key franchises—Dealer Financial Services, Consumer Bank, and Corporate Finance—after exiting the non-core credit card business is expected to drive margin expansion and growth.
    • Deposit Pricing & Margin Expansion: Adjustments in deposit pricing—including expected improvements from mature CDs and lower liquid deposit rates—should bolster net interest margin (with a noted 20 basis point impact from the card exit) in the upcoming quarter, supporting overall earnings expansion.
    • Improved Credit Quality & Auto Origination Yield: The bank’s deliberate focus on driving a higher quality origination mix (improved from 49% to 44% in the highest credit tier) combined with record auto loan application volumes has generated an originated yield of 9.8%, underpinning a resilient credit profile.
    • Margin Pressure from the Credit Card Business Sale: The removal of the credit card business is expected to result in a 20 basis point negative impact on NIM, which could pressure overall profitability in upcoming quarters.
    • Increased Credit and Macro Uncertainty: Elevated delinquencies combined with uncertainty in the macroeconomic environment—including weather‐related losses and cautious underwriting amidst evolving credit profiles—pose risks to asset quality and may lead to higher credit losses.
    • Volatility in Used Car Prices Impacting Lease Gains: Potential increases in used car prices, driven by tariffs and market dynamics, could adversely affect lease remarketing outcomes and credit risk, thereby negatively impacting margins and loan performance.
    MetricYoY ChangeReason

    Total Revenue

    –22% (from $1,986M in Q1 2024 to $1,541M in Q1 2025)

    Total Revenue declined significantly largely due to lower contributing components in Q1 2025, including decreased other revenue from investment losses and subdued net financing revenue, when compared to the stronger revenue mix in Q1 2024.

    Insurance Revenue

    +1,259% (from $29M in Q1 2024 to $394M in Q1 2025)

    Insurance Revenue surged dramatically as Q1 2025 reflected robust growth in insurance premiums and service revenue—likely driven by an expanded vehicle inventory insurance program and new dealer relationships—contrasting with the unusually low insurance revenue in Q1 2024.

    Corporate Finance Revenue

    +20% (from $111M in Q1 2024 to $133M in Q1 2025)

    An increase in Corporate Finance Revenue was observed due to stronger interest income from accelerated loan payoffs and elevated syndication/fee income, building on trends seen in previous periods.

    Corporate and Other Revenue

    –598% deterioration (loss worsened from –$50M in Q1 2024 to –$349M in Q1 2025)

    The Corporate and Other segment experienced a major deterioration driven by a combination of lower other revenue—impacted by balance sheet repositioning of securities—and higher noninterest expenses (including impairment charges), which marked a stark decline relative to Q1 2024.

    Net Income

    –243% (from $157M in Q1 2024 to a loss of $225M in Q1 2025)

    Net Income swung from a profit to a loss primarily as a result of a steep drop in total revenue, sizeable losses on investments, and rising expenses, aspects that contrast with the more favorable mix in Q1 2024.

    Total Financing Revenue and Other Interest Income

    –5% (from $3,582M in Q1 2024 to $3,393M in Q1 2025)

    A modest decline in financing revenue was noted, reflecting slightly lower yields from variable-rate loans and reduced interest from loans held-for-sale, building on existing pressures from a lower benchmark rate environment.

    Total Interest Expense

    –13% (from $1,922M in Q1 2024 to $1,675M in Q1 2025)

    Interest expense decreased appreciably as improved funding conditions and lower residual funding costs helped reduce the expense relative to the prior period, despite elevated rates previously.

    Provision for Credit Losses

    –62% (from $507M in Q1 2024 to $191M in Q1 2025)

    The provision for credit losses declined sharply, driven by a significant reduction in consumer credit loss provisions—attributable to portfolio adjustments and benefits from the transfer of Ally Credit Card operations—partially offset by modest rises in commercial losses.

    Total Noninterest Expense

    +25% (from $1,308M in Q1 2024 to $1,634M in Q1 2025)

    Noninterest expense increased noticeably due to higher costs including a substantial goodwill impairment and increased insurance-related losses, marking a reversal from lower expense trends in the previous year’s quarter.

    Income from Continuing Operations Before Tax

    –266% (from $171M in Q1 2024 to –$284M in Q1 2025)

    Operating income deteriorated sharply as the combination of large investment losses (a swing from a $29M gain to a $499M loss), higher noninterest expense, and lower other revenue overpowered modest gains in financing revenue.

    Total Cash and Cash Equivalents

    +28% (from $8,153M in Q1 2024 to $10,409M in Q1 2025)

    Cash and cash equivalents grew substantially, reflecting increased interest-bearing cash levels boosted by stronger financing and investing activities, despite lower operating cash generation relative to the prior period.

    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Net Interest Margin (NIM)

    FY 2025

    Approximately 3.4% to 3.5%

    $3.4 billion to $3.5 billion

    no change

    Retail Auto Yield

    FY 2025

    no prior guidance

    High 9% to 10%

    no prior guidance

    Net Charge-Off Rate

    FY 2025

    2% to 2.25%

    2% to 2.25%

    no change

    CET1 Ratio

    FY 2025

    CET1 expected to be above 10%, with a management target of 9%

    Pro forma CET1 ratio of 9.7%

    lowered

    Dividend

    Q2 2025

    no prior guidance

    $0.30

    no prior guidance

    Earning Assets

    FY 2025

    Expected to be flat year-over-year

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Expenses

    FY 2025

    Expense growth expected to be flat

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Tax Rate

    FY 2025

    Normalized tax rate of 22% to 23%

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Return on Tangible Common Equity

    FY 2025

    Mid‐teens ROTCE remains unchanged

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Other Revenue

    FY 2025

    Expected to be flat year‐over‐year

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Used Vehicle Values

    FY 2025

    Stable

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    Delinquencies

    FY 2025

    Elevated levels of late‐stage delinquent accounts with curtailment actions anticipated

    no current guidance

    no current guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Core Business Focus & Credit Card Exit

    In Q4 2024, discussions focused on pivoting toward core businesses—Dealer Financial Services, Corporate Finance, and Deposits—as well as planning the credit card exit scheduled to close in Q2 2025. In Q3 2024 there was no mention of a credit card exit, and Q2 2024 indirectly addressed diversification and non-prioritization of credit cards.

    In Q1 2025, leadership reiterated its commitment to core business areas with strong execution. The credit card business was confirmed as fully sold on April 1, 2025, reinforcing strategic refocusing and balance sheet strengthening.

    Recurring focus on core businesses remains, with an increased execution clarity on the credit card exit that was less emphasized or absent in Q3 2024.

    Net Interest Margin (NIM) and Deposit Pricing Dynamics

    Across Q2 to Q4 2024, Ally discussed steady improvements: Q2 2024 noted asset yield expansion and selective deposit pricing adjustments ; Q3 2024 highlighted a medium-term NIM target around 4% amid competitive deposit dynamics ; Q4 2024 detailed modest quarter‐over‐quarter increases in NIM, with deposit rates moving favorably.

    In Q1 2025, NIM was reported at 3.35%—up 2 basis points from Q4—with continued efforts in lowering deposit costs (e.g. 20 bps lower liquid deposit rates) and ensuring margin expansion through strategic repositioning of the funding mix.

    Consistent improvement with ongoing strategic deposit pricing actions; sentiment remains positive with further margin expansion expected despite near-term modest gains.

    Credit Performance and Underwriting Standards

    In Q2 2024, Q3 2024, and Q4 2024, Ally emphasized tightening underwriting standards, shifting originations toward higher credit quality (S-Tier increases), and vintage analyses showing the 2023 vintage outperforming the 2022 vintage. Delinquency trends and net charge-offs were in focus with continuing efforts to reduce loss severity.

    Q1 2025 highlighted stabilization of credit performance with retail auto net charge-offs declining (212 bps, down from prior periods) and dynamic adjustments in underwriting leading to improvements in borrower payment behavior.

    Positive trend and improved sentiment as tighter underwriting and credit discipline are yielding lower losses; consistent focus with gradually improving credit fundamentals.

    Auto Lending Portfolio Performance and Concentration Risk

    Previous calls (Q2, Q3, Q4 2024) discussed robust auto originations, vintage dynamics (e.g. 2022 vintage peaking), and efforts to manage concentration risk through vintage rollover and CRT transactions. The portfolio yields, charge-off trends, and risk weighting were key topics.

    Q1 2025 reported record-high consumer auto originations ($10.2 billion) with improved originated yield (9.8%) and reduced net charge-offs (down by 22 bps QoQ). Concentration risk is being actively managed via expected vintage rollover trends.

    Strong performance and risk management strategies persist. The narrative has shifted toward record origins and continued vintage rollover to reduce concentration risk, reflecting overall portfolio strength.

    Capital Management and Credit Risk Transfer (CRT) Transactions

    In Q2 and Q4 2024, discussions included strong CET1 ratios, disciplined capital allocation, and explicit CRT transactions (e.g. issuance of credit-linked notes reducing RWA). In Q3 2024 capital management was emphasized, though CRT transactions were not mentioned.

    In Q1 2025, capital management remains a priority with a solid CET1 ratio boosted by the credit card sale and disciplined securities repositioning. While no new significant CRT transactions were detailed, the focus remains on ongoing capital optimization.

    Consistent disciplined capital management over periods. CRTs are used opportunistically; overall, the emphasis on building capital buffers and strategic deployment continues steadily.

    Macro-economic Uncertainty and Interest Rate Risks

    Q2 2024 indirectly referenced higher rates impacting asset yields, while Q3 2024 provided extensive discussion on evolving macro conditions, volatility, and near-term margin pressures. Q4 2024 also addressed uncertainty affecting credit losses and the competitive deposit environment.

    In Q1 2025, macroeconomic uncertainty is explicitly cited—with impacts from tariffs, trade policy changes, and ongoing interest rate risk concerns. Ally highlighted its strategic actions (e.g. securities repositioning) to reduce exposure and support NIM expansion despite these challenges.

    A persistent and evolving challenge. While uncertainty remains, proactive risk management strategies and clear mitigation efforts represent a cautious yet confident stance for future resilience.

    Accounting and Regulatory Changes (CECL, EV Lease Tax Credits)

    In Q2 through Q4 2024, Ally provided detailed discussions on the impact of CECL (with expected CET1 reductions) and evaluated switching accounting methods for EV lease tax credits (from flow-through to deferral) to reduce volatility and align economics. These topics drew attention to regulatory impacts on capital.

    Q1 2025 did not include any discussion on these accounting and regulatory changes, indicating either resolution of these issues or a reduced emphasis in the current period.

    Decreased emphasis in Q1 2025. Previously critical topics now are not mentioned, suggesting that either their impact has been absorbed into ongoing operations or regulatory clarity has been achieved.

    Loss Mitigation Strategies and Credit Loss Recognition

    In Q2 through Q4 2024, loss mitigation techniques (enhanced communication, delaying repossession, improved modifications) and detailed vintage loss analysis were key. Discussions emphasized curtailment actions, better flow-to-loss ratios, and a forecast for normalized net charge-offs.

    In Q1 2025, strategies focused on improved customer payment behavior, stabilization in net charge-offs (212 bps, down from previous periods), and a cautious yet optimistic outlook for losses normalizing below 2%.

    Consistent improvement observed. Loss mitigation remains a key focus with effective strategies in place already showing positive results in reduced losses and better operational execution.

    Volatility in Used Car Prices Impacting Lease Remarketing

    In Q3 2024, volatility in used car prices was noted as softening lease gains and reducing lease termination volumes, while Q4 2024 mentioned strong used vehicle values contributing to better-than-expected outcomes but without deep detail on remarketing. Q2 2024 did not directly discuss this topic.

    Q1 2025 addressed used car price volatility explicitly. The quarter saw $19 million in lease remarketing losses attributed to specific models; however, management expects stabilization in auction values and a smaller mix of weaker-performing units, which should improve future performance.

    Ongoing challenge with mixed sentiment. While used car price volatility continues to impact lease remarketing, efforts to stabilize auction values may reduce its negative effects in the medium term.

    Leadership and Strategic Vision

    Q2 2024 featured the new CEO Michael Rhodes emphasizing a purpose-driven culture, execution focus, and leveraging core auto finance and digital banking strengths. In Q3 2024, leadership reiterated commitment to navigating near-term challenges and building shareholder value. Q4 2024 reinforced a strong culture and focused strategic transformation.

    Q1 2025 maintained a consistent leadership narrative with CEO Michael Rhodes emphasizing a clear strategic vision centered on core franchises, disciplined execution, brand strength, and adapting to macroeconomic challenges. Strategic priorities remain focused and execution-driven.

    Steady and consistent leadership narrative. The strategic vision continues to emphasize core strengths and disciplined execution, with evolving emphasis as market challenges shift over time.

    1. NIM Outlook
      Q: What is the Q2 NIM outlook?
      A: Management expects a 20 bp NIM hit in Q2 from the credit card sale, but offsetting benefits from lower deposit rates and favorable CD maturities should sustain margin expansion over time.

    2. Credit Losses
      Q: When will loss rates drop below 2%?
      A: Management projects a full‐year loss rate in the 2%–2.25% range, noting Q1 trends look promising yet caution remains due to lingering delinquency and macro uncertainty.

    3. Rate & Yield
      Q: How do rates affect your yield?
      A: They consider both steady and falling rate scenarios, expecting originated yields in the higher range, driven by strong application volumes and improved mix, while remaining mindful of macro volatility.

    4. Curtailment Unwind
      Q: How will curtailment unwind impact yields?
      A: Management remains cautious, closely monitoring OEM, dealer, and vintage data to guide any curtailment adjustments without providing a definitive timeline.

    5. Strategic Focus
      Q: What are your top strategic priorities?
      A: The focus is on executing a clear strategy to achieve mid-teens returns by strengthening core areas: dealer financial services, the digital deposit platform, and corporate finance, with no new diversification planned.

    6. Used Car Prices
      Q: What’s your view on used car prices?
      A: They expect used car prices to stay about 20% above pre-pandemic levels, with tariffs potentially offering additional support if prices rise further.

    7. Vintage Delinquency
      Q: How is the portfolio vintage evolving?
      A: The vintage rollover is on track—with the '22 vintage expected to drop to about 10% of the book by year’s end—indicating a stable evolution in credit quality.

    8. Origination Yield
      Q: What drove the change in origination yield?
      A: The improvement to a 9.8% originated yield, up 17 basis points from last quarter, was mainly due to a better STR mix (from 49% to 44%) with minimal premium amortization effects.

    Research analysts covering Ally Financial.