AP
ALNYLAM PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (ALNY)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q2 2025 delivered a decisive beat: Total revenues of $0.774B and total net product revenues of $0.672B, +17% and +64% YoY, respectively; revenue beat S&P Global consensus by ~$0.111B, and Primary EPS (S&P definition) was $0.32 vs -$0.70 consensus, a major upside surprise . S&P Global values marked with *; Values retrieved from S&P Global.
- TTR franchise inflected with AMVUTTRA’s ATTR-CM launch: TTR product revenue $0.544B (+77% YoY), ~1,400 ATTR-CM patients on therapy by quarter-end; U.S. access was broad and mostly first-line with minimal step-edit incidence, underpinning raised FY guidance .
- FY 2025 guidance increased materially: Total net product revenues raised to $2.650–$2.800B (midpoint +27%); TTR franchise raised to $2.175–$2.275B (midpoint +34% vs prior guide) .
- Margin headwinds reflect higher AMVUTTRA royalties; CFO expects product gross margin to trend lower in 2H25 as royalty rates step up, partly offset by strong volume and durable demand signals .
- Pipeline/strategic catalysts: Fast Track for nucresiran in ATTR-CM, international approvals for AMVUTTRA in ATTR-CM, and decision to initiate a global Phase III CV outcomes trial for zilebesiran with Roche by year-end .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- TTR launch momentum: $0.544B TTR net product revenue (+77% YoY), including AMVUTTRA $0.492B; ~1,400 ATTR-CM patients on therapy by June 30 with faster-than-anticipated payer and provider access . “Access ramped faster than expected… coverage is now confirmed… majority of patients have first-line access” — Tolga Tanguler .
- Guidance raised on strength of CM: Total net product revenue guidance lifted to $2.650–$2.800B; TTR to $2.175–$2.275B; management emphasized confidence in sustainable growth trajectory and international contributions in 2H25 .
- Regulatory/clinical progress: AMVUTTRA approved for ATTR-CM in EU, UK, Brazil, Japan; nucresiran TRITON‑CM Phase 3 initiated; FDA Fast Track for nucresiran; HELIOS‑B 42‑month data reinforced ACM and CV mortality reductions, supporting first‑line positioning .
What Went Wrong
- Collaboration revenues fell sharply (-73% YoY) due to a $185M Regeneron one-time recognition in Q2’24; non-GAAP operating income declined to $95M vs $138M prior year .
- Margins compressed: Product gross margin 79% vs 84% prior year; CFO guided to further GM pressure in 2H25 given higher AMVUTTRA royalties .
- GAAP loss widened: Net loss of -$66.3M (EPS -$0.51) vs -$16.9M (EPS -$0.13) in Q2’24; higher SG&A from AMVUTTRA launch and increased R&D from Phase 3 startups contributed to higher operating costs .
Financial Results
Segment/Product Revenue Breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “We are raising our total net product revenue guidance range by 27% at the midpoint, driven by an upward revision to our TTR franchise revenue guidance.” — Yvonne Greenstreet, CEO .
- “Coverage is now confirmed… the large majority of patients have access to AMVUTTRA as a first-line treatment… Most patients are paying zero out-of-pocket.” — Tolga Tanguler, CCO .
- “Gross margin on product sales was 79%… decrease driven by increased royalties on AMVUTTRA… expected to decrease as royalty rates increase.” — Jeff Poulton, CFO .
- “FDA has granted Fast Track Designation to nucresiran for ATTR-CM; TRITON-CM Phase 3 is underway.” — Management .
Q&A Highlights
- Pricing and GTN: Net price reduction for AMVUTTRA expected mid-single‑digits YoY; Part D rebate headwind; modestly higher 340B utilization .
- Demand and inventory: ~$150M CM revenue contribution in Q2; ~20 days on hand steady; ~$25M inventory benefit QoQ, offset by GTN headwinds .
- First-line vs progressors: Early stabilizer‑progressor uptake shifted to balanced mix with robust first-line new starts; prescriber base tripled QoQ .
- Payer dynamics: First-line coverage across most plans; step edits present in single digits, manageable with patient support systems .
- Combination use: Small portion of patients on combination therapy; may rise as tafamidis goes generic; currently limited .
Estimates Context
Implications: Expect upward revisions to revenue and EPS models driven by faster U.S. CM uptake, international launches, and higher FY product guidance; margin assumptions should reflect rising AMVUTTRA royalties and GTN dynamics .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- AMVUTTRA’s ATTR‑CM launch is the core driver: U.S. demand is strong, access broadly first‑line, and the franchise added ~$150M CM revenue in Q2; guidance magnitude suggests >$600M CM contribution in 2H if momentum persists .
- FY guidance reset is material and credible: TTR midpoints +
$550M and total product +$575M, with international CM launches beginning in 3Q; monitors should track payer policy stability and first‑line prescriber adoption . - Margin modeling needs updating: Product GM guided lower on higher royalties; incorporate net price moderation and Medicare Part D rebates into GTN and margin scenarios .
- Collaboration revenue volatility continues: YoY decline reflects non‑recurring 2024 items; focus on recurring product revenue and royalty streams (e.g., fitusiran/Leqvio) .
- Pipeline value accretion: Fast Track for nucresiran and ZENITH CVOT initiation for zilebesiran are medium‑term catalysts that can broaden Alnylam’s cardiometabolic footprint .
- Risk checks: Watch potential changes in payer step edits (currently minimal), GTN headwinds, and inventory normalization; validate sustainability of first‑line patient starts trajectory .
- Trading setup: The combination of a large revenue/EPS beat, a significant FY guidance raise, and tangible pipeline milestones supports positive estimate revisions and a constructive near‑term narrative.