Executive Summary

Q4 delivered sequential recovery: revenue rose to $289.0M on 56% higher LCE volumes QoQ; GAAP diluted EPS was $(0.01) and adjusted EPS was $0.01, with adjusted EBITDA of $73.7M as higher volumes and cost reductions offset lower realized prices .
Realized pricing for combined hydroxide/carbonate eased to $15,700/MT (from $16,200 in Q3), but hydroxide held roughly flat QoQ due to customer mix and long-term contracts; spodumene prices improved QoQ in Q3 but softened again by Q4 mix, while Q4 demand seasonality supported volume close-outs .
No Q4 earnings call; the company withdrew all guidance and will not issue 2025 guidance due to the pending Rio Tinto acquisition (all required pre-closing approvals obtained; closing targeted March 6, 2025), making the deal timeline the dominant near-term catalyst .
Year-end liquidity and leverage reset with combined company: net debt increased to $867.4M and cash was $93.2M at 12/31/24; adjusted cash and deposits were $133.4M (Non-GAAP) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Volume-driven upside: Q4 total volumes sold were 56% higher QoQ as customers closed out contractual commitments during a typically active year-end, supporting adjusted EBITDA to $73.7M despite price pressure .
Contract resilience: Hydroxide realized pricing was “roughly flat” QoQ, supported by customer mix and long-term agreements, cushioning the broader pricing decline across products .
Strategic momentum: All required pre-closing regulatory approvals for the Rio Tinto transaction were obtained; court sanction hearing set for March 5, 2025, with targeted closing March 6, 2025, providing a defined path to value realization .

What Went Wrong

Pricing headwinds: Average realized combined hydroxide/carbonate price fell to $15,700/MT (from $16,200 in Q3), reflecting weaker market prices and mix; Q4 yoy volumes were roughly flat despite seasonal strength .
GAAP pressure from non-operational items: Despite positive pre-tax income in Q4, higher tax expense ($23.2M) and adjustments (Argentina remeasurement gains, restructuring and other charges, and inventory step-up) produced a GAAP net loss attributable of $(14.2)M and diluted EPS of $(0.01) .
Merger and cost actions earlier in 2024: Q3 included a $51.7M impairment tied to placing Mt Cattlin into care and maintenance planning; restructuring and other charges remained elevated (Q4: $45.8M) .

Financial Results

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($M)	$254.5	$203.1	$289.0
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.07	$0.01	$(0.01)
Adjusted EPS (Non-GAAP) ($)	$0.05	$0.01	$0.01
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$99.1	$42.9	$73.7
Gross margin ($M)	$80.4	$56.2	$45.6

Prior-year comparables:

Metric	Q2 2023	Q3 2023	Q4 2023
Revenue ($M)	$235.8	$211.4	$181.8
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	$0.18	$0.17	$0.07

Segment/Product breakdown (Q4 2024):

Product	Revenue ($M)	Volume	Unit	Realized Price
Lithium Hydroxide & Carbonate	$211.1	~13,450	product metric ton	$15,700/MT
Butyllithium & Other Lithium Specialties	$38.9	~470	LCE	$82,800/LCE
Spodumene Concentrate	$39.0	~54,100	dry metric ton	$721 per 5.4% dmt (~$810 SC6 eq)

KPIs and pricing trajectory:

KPI	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Combined LiOH+Li2CO3 realized price ($/product MT)	$17,200	$16,200	$15,700
Li specialties (butyllithium & other) price ($/LCE)	$—	$82,100	$82,800
Spodumene realized price	$1,000/SC6 eq (commentary)	$682 per 5.3% dmt (~$770 SC6 eq)	$721 per 5.4% dmt (~$810 SC6 eq)
Spodumene volume (dmt)	~23,500 (commentary)	~32,400	~54,100
Combined LiOH+Li2CO3 volume (product MT)	~10,800 (commentary)	~8,750	~13,450
Total volumes sold change	—	−6% QoQ (LCE basis)	+56% QoQ (LCE basis)

Notes: Q4 volumes roughly flat YoY on an LCE basis .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue	FY 2024	~$1.1B (2H avg market price $12/kg) or ~$1.2B (2H $15/kg)	Guidance withdrawn; no 2025 guidance due to pending Rio Tinto transaction	Withdrawn
Adjusted EBITDA	FY 2024	~$380M (2H $12/kg) or ~$470M (2H $15/kg)	Guidance withdrawn; no 2025 guidance	Withdrawn
Adjusted tax rate	FY 2024	25%–30%	Guidance withdrawn; no 2025 guidance	Withdrawn
SG&A (incl. R&D)	FY 2024	~$115M	Guidance withdrawn	Withdrawn
D&A	FY 2024	~$100M	— (no update in Q4 release)	—
Capital spending	FY 2024	$550–$700M; plan to reduce ~$500M over next 24 months (project deferrals)	No update in Q4; guidance withdrawn overall	Withdrawn/No update

Context: By Q3, management had already withdrawn operating and financial guidance in light of the Rio Tinto transaction; Q4 reiterated no new 2025 guidance .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

No Q4 call held. Key narrative evolution based on Q2 call, Q3 and Q4 releases.

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024)	Q3 2024	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Pricing & contracts	Premium realized pricing vs spot; floors on ~2/3 of hydroxide volumes; adjusted EBITDA margin ~39%	Realized combined price $16,200/MT; hydroxide “roughly flat” QoQ	Combined price $15,700/MT; hydroxide roughly flat QoQ due to mix and long-term agreements	Gradual price pressure; contract floors mitigating
Volume trajectory	25% increase in combined hydroxide/carbonate in 2024 and again in 2025 from expansions	Total volumes −6% QoQ (LCE) on ramp/mix; spodumene up	Volumes +56% QoQ on year-end customer close-outs; flat YoY (LCE)	Sequential recovery in Q4
Cost actions	Accelerating to $125M/yr synergies (3 years); tracking high end of $60–$80M in 2024	Continued discipline; withdrew guidance	Cost reduction cited as EBITDA driver QoQ	Ongoing
Capex & projects	Defer Galaxy (James Bay) and sequence Fénix 1B/Sal de Vida; −$500M capex over 24 months; Nemaska continues	Impairment at Mt Cattlin ($51.7M) as care & maintenance plan advanced	— (no new project guidance)	De-risking capex; prioritization stands
Macro/supply-demand	Expect longer-term price upside; near-term oversupply from Africa lepidolite/spodumene; inventory overhang	—	—	Cautious near term; constructive LT
M&A/process	—	Definitive agreement with Rio Tinto at $5.85/share	All pre-closing approvals received; closing targeted Mar 6, 2025	Deal certainty increasing

Management Commentary

“Our strong customer relationships and commercial strategy of securing long term contracts helped us to achieve higher realized pricing during the year than we would have under a fully market-based pricing approach.” — Paul Graves, CEO .
“The increase in Adjusted EBITDA compared to the third quarter was largely attributable to higher volumes across all lithium products and reduced costs, partially offset by lower average realized pricing.” Q4 release .
On deferring growth in Q2: “We have therefore decided to slow down the pace of our own expansion plans… reducing our total capital spending over the next 24 months by approximately $500 million.” — Paul Graves .

Q&A Highlights

No Q4 call. Key Q2 conference call Q&A themes relevant to the quarter:

Price floors and non-linearity: Downside from $12/kg is not linear due to contract floors; a “big chunk” of volumes priced at floors cushions further declines .
Capex and funding: Expect to self-fund reduced capex program over next 24 months, with revolver availability as needed; biggest capex savings in 2025; indicative ~$300M capex in 2025 discussed .
Mt Cattlin: Care-and-maintenance under active consideration in low-price environment; Q3 impairment reflects this strategy .
Re-acceleration triggers: Would require higher sustained prices and/or strategic partner commitments (particularly for Galaxy/James Bay) to bring certainty on volumes/pricing .
Nemaska priority: Continues given advanced status, partner support, integration economics, and capital-sharing .

Estimates Context

We attempted to retrieve S&P Global consensus for Q2–Q4 2024 EPS/Revenue but the CIQ mapping for ALTM was not available in our system; as a result, we cannot present reliable S&P Global consensus estimates for beat/miss analysis at this time (S&P Global data unavailable via API). Values would have been retrieved from S&P Global if available.*
Given the absence of official S&P Global consensus in our system, we cannot assert formal beats/misses vs Street for Q4 2024.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Sequential recovery on volumes with disciplined costs lifted Q4 adjusted EBITDA to $73.7M despite softer realized prices; hydroxide resilience underscores the value of long-term contracts and customer mix .
The Rio Tinto transaction timeline is the central stock catalyst: all pre-closing regulatory approvals obtained; court hearing scheduled March 5, 2025; closing targeted March 6, 2025 .
Guidance is withdrawn and no 2025 guidance is forthcoming due to the pending deal; near-term modeling should anchor on reported run-rate metrics and contract structures rather than management outlooks .
Strategic capex deferrals (-$500M over 24 months) and Mt Cattlin care-and-maintenance planning (Q3 impairment) reduced risk in a weak price environment while prioritizing Nemaska and staged Argentina brine growth .
Balance sheet: net debt rose to $867.4M at year-end; adjusted cash and deposits of $133.4M offer context on liquidity composition during the transaction period .
Watch list into close: lithium pricing trajectory vs contract floors, hydroxide stability vs carbonate, Olaroz/Fénix ramp execution, and any post-close integration/timing updates from Rio Tinto .
Absent an earnings call and with estimates unavailable through our S&P Global API, price action likely keys off deal milestones and perceived cycle turn in lithium pricing, with limited incremental company-specific narrative until post-close .

Additional Detail and Supporting Data

Non-GAAP adjustments and impact (Q4):

Adjusted EBITDA bridge includes Argentina remeasurement (gains) of $(44.7)M, restructuring/other charges $45.8M, and $11.0M inventory step-up related to the Allkem-Livent merger; adjusted after-tax earnings were $12.5M (diluted adjusted EPS $0.01) .
GAAP tax expense of $23.2M contributed to Q4 GAAP net loss attributable $(14.2)M despite positive pre-tax income; non-GAAP tax adjustments totaled $6.4M .

Deal timeline and approvals:

Shareholders approved the Rio Tinto transaction on December 23, 2024 .
All required pre-closing regulatory approvals received by Feb 13, 2025; court hearing March 5, 2025; targeted close March 6, 2025 .

Seasonality and volume dynamics:

Q4 volumes surged 56% QoQ on typical year-end demand close-outs in key end markets; volumes were roughly flat YoY in LCE terms .

Pricing notes:

Q4 combined hydroxide/carbonate realized price $15,700/MT vs $16,200/MT in Q3; hydroxide “roughly flat” QoQ on customer mix and LTAs .
Q3 commentary indicated spodumene achieved ~$1,000/MT on SC6 eq with cash operating costs ~~$700/ton at Mt Cattlin; by Q4, spodumene realized price reported as $721/5.4% dmt (~~$810 SC6) on higher volumes .

Liquidity/leverage snapshot:

Net debt at 12/31/24: $867.4M (LT debt including current $960.6M, cash $93.2M); adjusted cash and deposits $133.4M (Non-GAAP) .

Citations:

Q4 2024 8-K Press Release and financial tables .
Q3 2024 8-K Press Release and financials .
Q2 2024 8-K Press Release and financials .
Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript .
Deal process and approvals .

Footnote:
We attempted to access S&P Global consensus via our system but could not due to a missing CIQ mapping for ALTM; had it been available, values would have been retrieved from S&P Global.

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