Autoliv - Q1 2024
April 26, 2024
Executive Summary
- Record first-quarter net sales of $2.615B (+5.4% organic), outgrowing global LVP by ~6pp; adjusted operating margin 7.6% (+230bps YoY) and adjusted EPS $1.58 (+76% YoY).
- Management reconfirmed FY 2024 guidance: ~5% organic sales growth, ~0% FX impact, ~10.5% adjusted operating margin, ~$1.2B operating cash flow, ~28% tax; capex net ~5.5% of sales.
- Q1 performance was aided by cost control and structural savings despite slightly weaker top line; company expects higher commercial recoveries in Q2 and sequential margin improvement through 2024.
- Shareholder returns remained high: paid $0.68 dividend and repurchased ~$160M shares in Q1; leverage 1.3x supports continued buybacks.
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Strong outgrowth: organic sales +5.4% vs global LVP ~-0.9%; outperformed in Asia ex-China (+8.2%), Europe (+3.7%), Americas (+4.6%), and China (+6.5%) with launches and price carryover.
- Cost execution: adjusted operating income +51% to $199M; gross margin +170bps YoY to 16.9%; SG&A and RD&E combined down 60bps of sales YoY, reflecting structural savings.
- Management quote: “We achieved our margin indication for the first quarter, and we are on track towards our full year guidance… seventh straight quarter with more than 30% year-over-year increase in adjusted operating profit”.
What Went Wrong
- Call-off volatility stalled: accuracy ~90% (vs 98–100% pre-pandemic), no sequential improvement from Q4; continued inefficiencies in supply chain.
- Currency headwinds and inflation: net currency -$8M to operating income; wage inflation persisted; raw materials neutral overall Q1 but textiles and electronics rising.
- China mix: domestic OEM growth favored lower safety content vehicles, pressuring CPV despite increased exposure to Chinese OEMs.
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Autoliv first quarter 2024 Financial Results Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be the question and answer session. To ask a question during the session, you need to press star one one on your telephone keypad. You will then hear an automated message advising your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to our first speaker today, Anders Trapp. Please go ahead.
Anders Trapp (VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Nadia. Welcome everyone to our first quarter 2024 earnings call. On this call, we have our President and Chief Executive Officer, Mikael Bratt, and our Chief Financial Officer, Fredrik Westin, and me, Anders Trapp, VP, Investor Relations. During today's earnings call, Mikael and Fredrik will, among other things, provide an overview of our strong sales, earnings, and cash flow development in the quarter, how our strong balance sheet and asset return rates support a continued high level of shareholder returns. They will outline the expected sequential margin improvement in 2024 towards our targets, and we will also, as usual, provide an update on our general business and market conditions. We will then remain available to respond to your questions, and as usual, the slides are available on Autoliv.com.
Turning to the next slide, we have the safe harbor statement, which is an integrated part of this presentation and includes the Q&A that follows. During the presentation, we will reference some non-U.S. GAAP measures. The reconciliations of historical U.S. GAAP to non-U.S. GAAP measures are disclosed in our quarterly earnings release, which is available on autoliv.com and in the 10-Q that will be filed with the SEC. Lastly, I should mention that this call is intended to conclude at 3:00 P.M., Central European Time, so please follow a limit of 2 questions per person. I will now hand over to our CEO, Mikael Bratt.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thank you, Anders. Looking on the next slide. I want to express my appreciation to the entire Autoliv team for their unwavering dedication to achieve our goals and for delivering another strong quarter in a challenging environment. In the first quarter, global light vehicle production declined year-over-year by around 1%, according to S&P Global. We saw no improvement in call-off volatility compared to fourth quarter 2023. Despite somewhat weaker than expected light vehicle production, we achieved our margin indication for the first quarter, and we are on track towards our full year guidance. In the quarter, organic sales grew by 5%, outperforming light vehicle production significantly, especially in India, South Korea, and Japan. The strong growth was mainly a result of product launches last year.
We generated a broad-based improvement year-over-year in key areas, including gross margin, operating margin, and operating cash flow. This quarter marks the seventh straight quarter with more than 30% year-over-year increase in adjusted operating profit. The debt leverage was virtually unchanged versus Q4 2023, despite share repurchases of $160 million in the quarter. Under the current stock repurchasing, repurchase program, we have repurchased and canceled 6.5 million shares for close to $630 million. We are making progress towards our previously announced intention of reducing our indirect workforce by up to 2,000 people. We expect savings of around $50 million in 2024 from these initiatives.
We are reconfirming the full year 2024 guidance, which sets a strong base towards continued high level of shareholder returns and our adjusted operating margin target of around 12%. However, the heightened seasonality of earnings of prior years is likely to be repeated in 2024. Now, looking at the sustainability highlights on the next slide. Sustainability is fundamental part of our business strategy. It is an important driver for market differentiation and stakeholder value creation. Guided by our vision of saving more lives, we are driving a number of activities to take significant steps towards our climate commitment. For example, during the first quarter, we successfully issued a second green bond using Autoliv's Sustainability Financing Framework, aligned with the ICMA Green Bond Principles. The bond drew significant interest from debt investors, reflecting the strong support for Autoliv's climate and sustainability agenda.
Following Autoliv's first partnership in 2021 with SSAB, a fossil-free steel, we are now introducing two additional collaborations for carbon-reduced steel with Arvedi and ThyssenKrupp. The aim is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in our products by utilizing low-emission steel and increase use of recycled material.... In addition to renewable electricity instruments, many Autoliv sites are increasing the use of on-site solar energy generation capacity. On this slide, you can see one of the new solar parks in Utah, US, supporting our operations. We are partnering with BASF to introduce a new type of design for recycling PU foam for steering wheel rims. This new type of foam will enable simplified and scalable recycling. Looking on our cost improvements on the next slide. We continue to generate broad-based improvements in key areas over the last 12 months.
Our direct labor productivity continues to trend up, supported by the implementation of our strategic initiatives, including optimization and digitalization. Year-over-year, we have reduced our direct production personnel despite higher volumes. Our gross margin declined from the seasonality of a strong, from the seasonal strong fourth quarter, but it improved by 170 basis points year-over-year. The improvement was mainly the result of the higher direct labor efficiency and reductions within the indirect workforce, volume growth, and customer compensation negotiated last year. As a result of our structural efficiency initiatives, the positive trend for RD&E and SG&A in relation to sales has continued, declining by 60 basis points since Q1, 2023. Combined with the gross margin improvement, this led to a substantial improvement in adjusted operating margin versus Q1, 2023. Looking now on financials in more detail on the next slide.
Sales in the first quarter increased by 5% year-over-year, despite lower light vehicle production, a negative regional light vehicle production mix, and unfavorable currency translation effects. The sales increased, and our cost reduction activities led to a substantial improvement in adjusted operating income, increasing by more than 50% to $199 million from $130 million last year. The adjusted operating margin was 7.6% in the quarter, an increase by 230 basis points for the same period last year. Operating cash flow was $122 million, which was $168 million higher than in the same period last year, as a result of improved working capital effects versus last year. Looking now on the structural cost savings activities on the next slide.
To secure our medium- and long-term competitiveness and to support our financial targets, we launched a cost reduction initiative in mid last year, with intent to reduce our indirect headcount by up to 2,000. We estimate that the annual cost reduction will amount to around $130 million when fully implemented, with around $50 million already in 2024 and around $100 million expected in 2025. For 2024, we expect to cash out approximately $85 million related to these initiatives. At the end of first quarter, our indirect headcount had declined by around 1,000, or by more than 5% since a year ago, with the majority of the decrease within production overhead, especially in best cost countries.
We are already seeing a positive impact on direct labor productivity as a result of our initiative to reduce the direct workforce by the equivalent of up to 6,000. Looking now on our sales growth in more detail on the next slide. Our consolidated net sales increased by more than $2.6 billion, a new record for the first quarter. This was approximately $120 million higher than a year earlier, driven by price, volume, and product mix, partly offset by lower light vehicle production, a negative geographical light vehicle production mix, and currencies. Currency translation effects reduced sales by $12 million or by 0.5%. Looking on the regional sales split, Asia accounted for 37%, Americas for 34%, and Europe for 29%.
The lower than usual share of the total sales in Asia was a result of the Lunar New Year and low light vehicle production in Japan, due to customers having certification issues with certain vehicle models. We outline our organic sales growth compared to light vehicle production on the next slide.... I am very pleased that our organic sales growth outperformed global light vehicle production significantly, as we continue to execute on our strong order book. According to S&P Global, first quarter light vehicle production decreased by 1% year-over-year. This was more than 1 percentage point lower than expectations at the beginning of the quarter, with most of the lower-than-expected production coming in Japan and with global OEMs in China. We estimate that the geographical light vehicle production mix had 140 basis points negative impact on our outperformance.
In the quarter, we outperformed global light vehicle production by more than 6 percentage points, with strong performance, especially in the Rest of Asia and in Japan. The strong outperformance in Rest of Asia was mainly driven by India, where sales outperformed light vehicle production by 20 basis points due to higher installation rates for side airbags. In comparison, the modest outperformance in China was mainly a result of unfavorable customer mix, following strong light vehicle production growth for lower safety content vehicles. On the next slide. Although we see some changes to our customers' plans for model launches, especially for EV models, we expect a record number of product launches for 2024. Despite some changes to model launch plans by some customers, the trend towards electrification continues, although at a somewhat slower pace. On this slide, 7 models are being made available as electrical versions.
The models shown here have an Autoliv content per vehicle from around $130 to over $400. In terms of Autoliv sales potential, the BMW 5 Series Touring launch is the most significant, followed by the Subaru Forester. The long-term trend to higher content per vehicle is supported by front center airbags on three of these models. More advanced seat belts and pedestrian protection airbags, and hood lifters. Another interesting launch is the Tata Punch EV, that illustrate the trend towards more sophisticated safety systems and higher safety content in India. I will now hand it over to our CFO, Fredrik Westin, who will talk you through the financials on the next slide.
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
Thank you, Mikael. This slide highlights our key figures for the first quarter of 2024, compared to the first quarter of 2023. Our net sales were $2.6 billion. This was a 5% increase. Gross profit increased by $64 million, or by 17% to $443 million, while the gross margin increased by 1.7 percentage points to 16.9%. The adjusted operating income increased from $131 million to $199 million, and the adjusted operating margin increased by 230 basis points to 7.6%. Non-GAAP adjustments amounted to $5 million from capacity alignments and antitrust-related matters. Adjusted earnings per share diluted increased by $0.68, where the main drivers were $0.54 from higher operating income and $0.10 from lower income taxes.
Our adjusted return on capital employed and return on equity increased to 20% and 21%, respectively. We paid a dividend of $0.68 per share in the quarter and repurchased and retired 1.4 million shares for around $160 million under our $1.5 billion stock repurchase program. Looking now on the adjusted operating income bridge on the next slide. In the first quarter of 2024, our adjusted operating income of $199 million was $68 million higher than the same quarter last year. Our operations were positively impacted by cost-saving activities, higher volumes, and commercial recoveries, partly offset by headwinds from general cost inflation.
The net currency effect was $8 million negative, as we continued to see negative effects, mainly from the strengthening of the Mexican peso and the weakening of the Japanese yen and Korean won, but partly offset by positive impact from the Turkish lira. The impact from raw materials and out of period, period cost compensation were negligible. Costs for SG&A and RD&E net combined was $4 million lower, despite labor cost inflation. In relation to sales, SG&A and RD&E net combined declined by 60 basis points. As a result of our cost-saving activities, the leverage, excluding currency effects, was, on the higher sales, was substantially above our normal 20%-30% range. Looking now on the cash flow more in detail on the next slide.
For the first quarter of 2024, operating cash flow increased by $168 million to $122 million compared to the same period last year, mainly due to improved working capital effects versus last year. Capital expenditures net decreased to $140 million from $143 million last year. In relation to sales, it was 5.4% this year, down from 5.7% last year. The free cash flow improved by $171 million compared to the same period, the prior year, mainly due to the improved operating cash flow. The last twelve months cash conversion, defined as free cash flow in relation to net income, was 108%. Now looking at our trade working capital development on the next slide.
During the first quarter, trade working capital increased by $104 million, driven by $123 million lower accounts payables, partly offset by $50 million in lower inventories and by $4 million in lower receivables. The lower inventories and receivables were mainly due to lower sales than in the fourth quarter of last year. Compared to the same period last year, trade working capital decreased from 14.1% to 12.8% in relation to sales. Our capital efficiency program aims to improve working capital by $800 million, and to date, we have achieved around $500 million. Improvements in receivables, and especially in inventories, are lagging due to the high call-off volatility and hence planning challenges that cause inefficiencies. Over the coming years, we expect the inventories to improve significantly in tandem with reduced call-off volatility.
Now looking at our leverage ratio on the next slide. Our continued focus on balance sheet efficiency is supporting our strong performance for cash flow, cash conversion, and return on capital employed. I am particularly pleased with our leverage ratio, which improved compared to a year ago, despite investing in our footprint and returning $700 million to shareholders. The debt leverage ratio at the end of March 2024 was 1.3 times, up 0.1 time from last quarter. Compared to the fourth quarter 2023, our net debt increased by $184 million, while the twelve-month trailing Adjusted EBITDA improved by $72 million. We expect that our debt leverage and positive cash flow trend will allow for continued high shareholder returns going forward. Now, looking at shareholder returns over the past five years on the next slide.
Over the years, Autoliv has shown its ability to generate solid cash flow in periods with varying market environments. We have used both dividend payments and share repurchases to create shareholder value. Historically, the dividend has usually represented a yield of approximately 2%-3% in relation to the average share price. During the last twelve months, we have returned around $700 million to shareholders through both dividends and share buybacks, a new record for the company. Over the last five years, we have reduced the net debt significantly while returning $1.5 billion directly to shareholders. This includes stock repurchases and cancellations of 6.5 million shares for a total of close to $630 million as part of the current stock repurchase program.
Since we initiated the current stock repurchase program in 2022, we have reduced the number of outstanding shares by more than 7%. We consider several factors when executing the program, such as our balance sheet, the cash flow outlook, our credit rating, and the general business conditions, and not only the debt leverage ratio. We always strive to balance what is best for our shareholders, both short and long term. Now, looking on our efficient balance sheet that supports our shareholder returns on the next slide. A strong balance sheet and good return on capital employed is fundamental for long-term shareholder value creation. Despite an operating margin impacted by the challenging market environment for the past 5 years, our return on capital employed have remained strong, averaging around 17%.
Our capital turnover rate, meaning our sales in relation to average capital employed, has improved substantially over the past three years and is now significantly above our five-year average. With that, I hand it back to you, Mikael.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thank you, Fredrik. On to the next slide. Despite still elevated interest rates, the global light vehicle production continues to show relative strength. S&P Global's updated forecast for full year 2024 indicates a modest decline of 0.4% instead of 0.8% 3 months ago, with additional volume increases primarily in China and North America. Drive train mix developments vary by region, as certain markets face somewhat slower EV growth rates, while other areas continue to see rather high demand for EVs. S&P Global expect second quarter global light vehicle production to increase by close to 3%, while they see second half of the year declining almost 2% compared to last year. Light vehicle production in China continues to be supported by strong EV demand and export activity.
The outlook for North American light vehicle production for 2024 was revised higher to 14.6 million units on demand resilience, less impact from supply chain issues, and increasing inventory levels of new vehicles. The light vehicle production forecast for Europe has increased slightly to -2%, mainly due to stronger than expected actuals in the first quarter. Based on S&P Global's forecast and our own analysis, our 2024 guidance is built on a global light vehicle production decline of around 1% for the full year. Now looking on the business outlook on the next slide. We continue to see significant improvements in adjusted operating margin in 2024 compared to 2023, supported mainly by organic sales growth, a more stable light vehicle production, structural and strategic initiatives, cost control, and customer compensations.
We continue to face inflationary pressure, especially labor costs, and we expect compensation for what is the in excess of what we can offset through normal productivity measures. The discussions with our customers are progressing according to plan. We anticipate that price adjustments and cost compensations will gradually, throughout the year, offset cost inflation. We expect the pattern to be similar to the quarterly pattern seen in 2022 and 2023. Looking at our 2024 financial guidance on the next slide. This slide shows our full-year 2024 guidance, which excludes effects from capacity alignment, antitrust-related matters, and other discrete items. Our full-year guidance is based on a global light vehicle production decline of around 1%. Our organic sales is expected to increase by around 5%. No net currency translation effects are expected on sales.
The guidance for adjusted operating margin is around 10.5%. Operating cash flow is expected to be around $1.2 billion. Our positive cash flow trend should allow for continued high shareholder returns. We foresee a tax rate of around 28%, in line with our previous indications of 25%-30% as the new normal tax rate. Looking on the next slide. This concludes our formal comments for today's earnings call, and we would like to open the line for questions from analysts and investors. I now hand it back to Nadia.
Operator (participant)
Thank you so much. Dear participants, as a reminder, if you wish to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone keypad and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by, we'll compile the Q&A roster. This will take a few moments. Now we're going to take our first question, and it comes from the line of Colin Langan from Wells Fargo. Your line is open, please ask your question.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
Oh, thanks for taking my questions. You know, it seems like your recovery seemed to be trending well in Q1, but there have been some concerning headlines. I think at least one automaker has announced some sort of no more claims policy. Are you finding it harder to get recoveries from automakers? Is there a lot more pushback as we're starting the year?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thank you for your question there. I think I've mentioned it many times before here, and that is the fact that I would say it has never been easy to negotiate these claims. However, I think that over the last two years here, we have found a way of working together with our customers on how to identify a fair compensation here. We have also mentioned it's a very detailed negotiations because it's fact-based and evidence-based discussion here. As we've indicated for you here on the first quarter, we are progressing according to plan. Yeah, I think we have good discussions with our customers on the way forward here.
But, of course, it is tedious work to go through.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
Got it. I think one of the other factors of getting to the 12% was the lack of call-offs on schedules. I mean, how is that trending? Is that getting closer to back to historical norms, or are there still, you know, room there to improve?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Compared to one year ago, of course, we see improvements, and we saw gradual improvement during 2023. We ended the year at around 90%-ish accuracy when it comes to the call-offs. And now in Q1, we don't see any sequential improvement, so we are still at around 90% here. However, what we see is, of course, that it's not the same customers that has the same challenges. So it varies a little bit between the customers, but in large, it's very much the same as we had in Q4.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
The 90% compares to, like, was it 98% historically?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Yeah, sorry. The, I mean, before the pandemic and what we judge as normal is more the 98%-100% accuracy interval.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
Got it. All right. Thanks for taking my question.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. And the next question comes to line of Mattias Holmberg from DNB Markets. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Mattias Holmberg (Analyst)
Thank you, and good afternoon, good morning. A bit curious on, on the margin guidance here, given that you come in stronger than expected in the first quarter and, and still leave the full year guidance intact, does that imply that the year will be less back-end loaded? Or is it simply that you don't think that the, the Q1 beat was material enough to, to warrant raised guidance for the full year? Thank you.
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
Yeah, thanks for the question. Yeah, we had a bit weaker top line here in the first quarter than expected, but that was offset by the better cost control and also, some of the cost reduction activities coming through faster than we had planned. But that does not really change the picture for the full year, in terms of how the, our expected cost savings. And, so for the full year, I think we, we had a good start of the year. But, most of our assumptions here for the full year remain intact, and that's also why we stick to the full year guidance.
Mattias Holmberg (Analyst)
Right. Thank you. I have another question on the phasing of your market outperformance for the year, given what seems to be some delays you mentioned here, electric vehicles in particular. Does that change in any way when you expect to see your outperformance, or should we assume that, you know, the 5% or 6% that your organic growth guidance implies will be quite evenly spread throughout the year?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
We have not indicated really how it plays out here between the different quarters. I think when you see the change in the launch programs here or the movements between the different platforms, I would say, due to the very diverse portfolio that we have here, and the neutrality when it comes to our products and the driveline connection here, we expect very limited, if any, impact from this. Of course, there is some work needed to be done to reschedule and replan, but in terms of the overall launch and outperformance, no impact from that, or very limited.
Mattias Holmberg (Analyst)
Thank you. A quick final one, just on raw materials, a small headwind in the quarter. Do you have any visibility on, on where that's tracking for the second quarter?
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
Yeah, we don't guide raw materials on a quarterly basis. But, I mean, overall, we expect raw materials to have a smaller impact for the full year. We see improvements on steel and non-ferrous metals, but that is offset on the textile side, mainly. And also, we expect to have increases on electronic components, but more or less a fairly neutral development for the full year.
Mattias Holmberg (Analyst)
Thank you, and have a nice weekend.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thank you.
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question, and it comes from line of Dan Levy from Barclays. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Dan Levy (Analyst)
Hi, good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. Just wanted to get into the pricing cadence for the year. Maybe you could just comment. I think, you know, the comments you just provided implied that the 1Q margin strength was driven by better cost controls. But maybe you could just provide some comments on how the pricing benefits factored into the 1Q strength. Was anything pulled forward, or was that as planned?
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
Yeah, I mean, we had commercial recoveries in the first quarter, in line with our expectations. And as we have said here, that we are expecting a gradual improvement on the compensation for the inflationary headwinds throughout the year. So we do expect a higher commercial recoveries in the second quarter sequentially year. And but then also we said that we don't expect to have an identical sequential quarterly pattern as we had last year, with a step up in every quarter. But that Q2 and Q3, the gap between those two quarters could be a bit narrower this year than last year. But that's, I think, as much as we can say of how we expect the cadence year of the pricing to come through.
Dan Levy (Analyst)
Great. Thank you. And then a second question is just on some of the outgrowth dynamics, and maybe just two parts of this. One, maybe you could just provide a comment on, you know, the outgrowth in China, which is a contrast versus, I guess, some of your peers. The other one is, I know we don't spend a lot of time on India, but India sales growth of 27%, which I think now, that basically contributed to, even though it's a small base of sales, that's like a whole point of outgrowth for you. So maybe you could just talk about what's going on in India and the sustainability of those results. Is that going to be a meaningful contributor to growth in the future for you?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Very good, thank you. No, I think what you see here is a reflection of our market position in the different countries. I mean, we have a market-leading position in China, where we're working with a broad-based customer portfolio there. And obviously, we are on the main Chinese OEMs here and have been working with them for a long time. So, as they grow, of course, we grow together with them as we move forward here. India is a very interesting market for us. Also there we have a local presence, and we have, in the last couple of year-...
We also invested in our footprint there to make sure that we are ready and have the capacity here for what we have been expecting to see, which is then an increased focus on content and safety regulations in China. And we, sorry, in India, and we see that now is coming through. And in China, we have also India, we have a very strong position as well here and a market leading position. So, we look very positively on both this country. And India for sure is taking significant steps to increase the required rules and regulations around the required safety components in their vehicle. And today, India has grown to become around 4% of our turnover, global turnover.
So, quite meaningful market here, and we expect that to grow and very positively viewing that opportunity.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. The next question comes from the line of Bjorn Andersson from Danske Bank. Your line is open, please ask your question.
Björ Andersson (Analyst)
Yeah, thank you. On India again, can you.... I mean, you have had higher market shares in your backlog for quite some time. And where are you now in terms of market shares in India? And do you still expect that, according to your backlog, to continue to grow in the next few years?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
We are really in a market leading position there, and we have 60% of the Indian market. And that's of course something that we intend to defend and grow. And as I mentioned before, here, we have made investments in China last couple of years, where we have renewed our footprint, and we have also added capacity and vertically integrated more into the Indian market. So we have now an inflator plant in India, which we didn't have before, for example, in order to also respond to the increased demands coming in India here. So yeah, I feel we are well positioned here to continue to grow with Indian market.
Björ Andersson (Analyst)
Capacity is there, clearly.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Yeah
Björ Andersson (Analyst)
And then, second thing on EV, I mean, what's your take on why EV in certain markets is growing less or less popular? I mean, I guess, and you repeat that you're quite agnostic to the driveline, but still, what's your take on that?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
I think it's a huge range of reasons in certain markets. I mean, it's very individual for the market, I should say, rather. I mean, in some markets there has been incentives which have disappeared. It has also been more costly to invest in an EV than a regular vehicle. And of course, now, if the overall economic pressure on household is higher, maybe you are not prepared to make that investment, etc. And then also, I think there is some challenges in certain markets when it comes to charging capacity and availability, etc. So of course there is a lot of things that influence the respective markets, but I would say that the trend for increasing EVs is here to stay.
So, it's more of a bump on the road.
Björ Andersson (Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Now we're going to take our next question. The next question comes from the line of Michael Jacks from Bank of America. Your line is open, please ask your question.
Michael Jacks (Analyst)
Hi. Thank you. Good afternoon, Mikael, Fredrik, thank you for the presentation. My first question, just going back on China, with the exception of Chery, your business there was more influenced by the activities of foreign OEMs in Q1. Could you just remind us, where does your exposure to domestic OEMs now stand in China? And how is that expected to evolve going forward, based on what you currently see in your order book?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Yeah, I think, when you look at our presence with the Chinese OEM, I feel very comfortable in the close collaboration we have here. And we expect the share of the Chinese OEM to continue to grow of our sales in China. In Q1, we are at 30%, and we expect the full year to increase to 40% pace here. So yeah, continued increased sales from Chinese OEM as they continue to take market share and grow as well here. So well positioned with our customers there.
Michael Jacks (Analyst)
Yeah, that's, that's quite a big step change. Thank you. And then my last question, just going back to the lack of improvements in call-off accuracy in Q1. Is that being driven now by volatility on EV platforms, or are there still some other supply chain tensions around which you might be able to elaborate on?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
No, I think it's very much a mix of supply chain issues, mainly, and I think you can find a whole range here from still challenging logistics in the world's logistics flows here, and ship accuracy and so on. And some areas you have a challenge with high turnover and lack of workforce. So, it varies broadly between the different customers, I would say, and their respective supply chains.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
That's helpful color. Thank you.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thank you.
Colin Langan (Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. The next question comes from the line of Hampus Engelau from Handelsbanken. Your line is open, please ask your question.
Hampus Engellau (Analyst)
Thank you very much. 2 questions from me. First question is on the 6 percentage points outgrow from the Q1 numbers. If you could maybe add some little bit flavor on how much is, like, market share, content growth, and if there's also an element of price there? And second question is on the orders. I know you're not going to reveal the orders for but just to get a sense on your fair share of activity in Q1, even if you don't want to comment on market shares, etc. Thanks.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Yeah. Thank you. No, I think, I mean, on the outperformance side, I mean, it's the, of course, content growth that we have talked about when it comes to content per vehicle here, which is in the range of 1-2 percentage points. And then, pricing is a part of it, but then, of course, the important contributor here is the market share growth as we launch the new platforms here. So, I would say mainly, you know, CPV and market share growth here as we look at the quarter here, but also for the full year. Pricing, as we said, it comes sequentially contributing throughout the year here, but we also got some in the quarter.
But we don't break down the exact details on it, but you have the components there. When it comes to the new order intake, I would say Q1 has been relatively low quarter in terms of award activities from our customers. And that was also according to plan, so nothing strange there. But I feel that we continue to gain orders to defend the market share that we are in here and supporting our way forward here in a good way. So backfilling the order book in a good way here.
Hampus Engellau (Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Now we're going to take our next question. The next question comes from the line of Jairam Nathan from Daiwa Capital Markets America. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Jairam Nathan (Analyst)
Hi, thanks for the opportunity. So I just wanted to kind of dig a little further on the last question. You know, if I look at your EBIT walk, $74 million, and compared to... It almost seems like the incremental margins is above 50%. Now, does that imply that would mean imply that your deliveries was probably a bigger portion, or your cost saving and initiatives are kind of kicking in? So, you know, just like, how should we think of incremental margins going forward? Yeah, and I had one more question.
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
Yeah, no, I think the high operating leverage was a combination of a couple of factors. And of course, the organic growth is one factor, but then it is mainly the contribution here with the cost reductions we've done on both the indirect labor side, but also the very good cost control we saw in the first quarter, and also the very good advancement we have on the direct labor productivity. Those are mainly the factors why we get to such a high operating leverage, and much less driven by pricing. But then also we had slightly lower premium freight costs in this quarter related to the better call-off stability from our customers when you compare it year-over-year.
So it's really the underlying operational performance that is driving the leverage.
Jairam Nathan (Analyst)
Okay. Okay, thanks. And just on, you know, when you look at the regions, the regional mix and regional performance, have you considered exports? Because you talked about South Korea being strong, and we are seeing a lot of exports out of South Korea, especially into the US. So, and I'm guessing those are higher concentrated vehicles. So have you done some analysis on how much, how much is, you know, how much is exports helping, helping you in terms of content?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
I mean, we have a structure and I would say an approach where we sell to our customers in the regions where we produce. Then, of course, our customers can then, in turn, export their vehicles to different parts of the world. But it doesn't really change our supply chain to our customers here. So we look at where the vehicle is produced, and that's the basis. And I don't see that we are going to change that. I think this regional approach, yeah, it's something we're going to continue to build on.
Jairam Nathan (Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. And the next question comes to the line of Agnieszka Vilela from Nordea. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Agnieszka Vilela (Analyst)
Perfect. Thank you. I have two questions. My first question is again on the out-of-period compensations. These were quite significant in both Q2 2022 and 2023. I think you reached some $30 million-
... each of these quarters. So the question really is, will the Q2 this year be as important quarter for you to close negotiations and receiving payments? And also, do you hope to recover the similar level of compensations?
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
I mean, typically, when we have these negotiations, our ambition is to get compensation for, say, the full year. So we would expect that there should be some retroactive activity back to January first with the negotiations we closed here in the second quarter. But how much exactly that will be remains to be seen. Our focus is to get the right, say, height on the compensation. Yeah, that is more important to us. So yeah, we'll come back here in the second quarter of how much retroactive activity in that pricing that we negotiate in the second quarter will then be shown.
Agnieszka Vilela (Analyst)
All right, and just to follow up on that, are you already closing the negotiations, or are they still proceeding into Q2?
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
I mean, as I already indicated before, we have, yeah, closed negotiations and part of negotiations already here in the first quarter. So but, but also, I mean, the majority is still outstanding, and then those are the ones we're targeting here to close in the second and third quarter of the year. But it is an ongoing process, and it's not always like you close all at once. You also can take it in steps, and, and, we have already secured some of the pricing effects here in the first quarter.
Agnieszka Vilela (Analyst)
Perfect. Thank you. And then my second question is on the R&D expenses. R&D to sales were at about 4%, this quarter, and that's obviously a good improvement from, if we look at the recent years being it's at, 5%-6%. So could you please remind us what's driving the R&D cost efficiency? And also, I think you're right in the report that specifically in Q1, you had some maybe extra engineering income. So if you could, give us a bit more color on that.
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
Yeah, I mean, we have already... I mean, even in the 12% margin target, we - and then the way to get there, back in 2019, we said that we were striving for better R&D efficiency, and then that's, I think, what you're seeing coming through here now. In relation also to the 2,000 headcount reduction target on the indirect side, there's also part of that allocated to R&D, and also some of those savings we do see come through already now as well, yeah. Then in this the engineering income part is always a bit... It can fall in one quarter or the next quarter. So, that can always impact a little bit between, say, Q1 and Q3.
And then you know that we seasonally have a stronger recovery quarter in the fourth quarter. But I wouldn't say that there was anything special here on the recovery side in the first quarter. It's more, again, that the cost control and also headcount reductions, we see coming through also impacting R&D costs positively.
Agnieszka Vilela (Analyst)
Thank you.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. Just give us a moment. The next question comes from the line of Ross MacDonald from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Ross MacDonald (Analyst)
Hi there. Yes, thanks for taking my questions. Just to come back to India, once more, and link to that point around India supporting top line growth, could you maybe frame how much growth you expect in India from a content per vehicle perspective in dollar terms? You mentioned regulatory improvements, but it would be helpful to understand where we're starting from and how you expect that to progress over the next few years.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Yeah, thank you. I mean, today, we are around $100 in India, so, I mean, they are significantly below, you could say, the mature markets average here. But we expect it to quite rapidly grow to $150-$170 per vehicle here in the next coming year or so.
Ross MacDonald (Analyst)
That's great. Thank you.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
So quite rapid-
Ross MacDonald (Analyst)
And then-
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
increase here, and as I said, it's driven also very much around the legislations. And you may recall that last year here, there was intention to put in legislations on certain number of airbags in a vehicle, which later was retracted. But I would say the majority of the OEMs decided still to carry on with that ambition. So you see this increase coming through, and of course, that's an important contributor to the $150-$170.
Ross MacDonald (Analyst)
Excellent. Yeah, so some of that very strong growth, I guess, would be expected to continue with the market share and the-
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Yeah
Ross MacDonald (Analyst)
... CPV expansion. That's great. Thank you. The second question is on North America and mixed trends in North America. There's obviously a big debate around stretched affordability for consumers and whether that will weigh on mix in the future. Just be curious if you're seeing any signs of mix shifting lower in North America, in order bank, perhaps from large SUVs into smaller SUVs or crossovers or any trends like that. Thank you.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
I mean, we see what you're referring to here as well, but in our own numbers and in our dialogues with customers, we don't really see that, and we don't expect that to have any real impact on ourselves here also, as once again, the diversity here in terms of our portfolio will support us in any transitions like that. So no, not really a concern from our side here.
Ross MacDonald (Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question... The next question comes to the line of Jason Getz from Mizuho Securities. Your line is open. Please ask your question.
Speaker 13
Hey, guys, thanks for letting me ask you a question. When you look at inflationary pressures for this year, how should we think about that moving through the year? I assume the increases are still rising kind of year-on-year, but wondering more near term, how that's trending. Is that starting to stabilize, or are we still seeing increases on a, you know, sequential basis?
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
There will be still some sequential increases, and that's mainly on our material costs, so on the components that we purchase, and then mainly on the labor content of those purchased components. On the labor cost side, the majority or the vast majority is behind us, and that's already happened, that all happened in the first quarter of the year. There might be some, yeah, a few further labor cost increases that we can expect in, say, higher inflation countries, but that should not have a significant impact. So labor cost to a large extent is behind us, with what's happened in the first quarter, but we still expect some on the purchased material from our suppliers.
Speaker 13
Gotcha. And then on, when you look at the, you know, broader LVP for the year, how much do you think of that is, vehicle inventory build versus true, you know, sell-through demand? Do you think we're seeing like, kind of a larger inventory build this year than we have in the past few years, or how should we think about that moving forward?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
We don't expect that. I think right now we are at the point where it's quite calibrated between supply and demand here. I think the restocking, to a large extent, has already happened. I mean, in China, we are at normal levels of inventory, likewise in Europe. In the US, we see with historical measurements lower level of inventory, but I would say it's in line with what the OEMs have indicated where they would like to be. So, no indications or any plans on, you know, bringing that industry inventory up. So, short answer I would say is that, no inventory buildup. It's all about the demand from end consumer here.
Speaker 13
Gotcha. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Now we're going to take our next question. The next question comes to the line of Mattias Holmberg from DNB Markets. Your line is open. Please ask your question. Excuse me, Mattias, your line is open.
Mattias Holmberg (Analyst)
Sorry, can you hear me?
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Yep, we hear you.
Mattias Holmberg (Analyst)
Hello? Oh, yeah, sorry. Thanks for allowing the quick follow-up. Just, if you could, it would be very helpful to share any insights on how much cost savings you managed to realize in the quarter in the context of those $50 million you were targeting for the year.
Fredrik Westin (CFO)
Yeah, I think we said that we are maybe a bit ahead on the $50 million. We haven't broken it down by quarter. It is coming, by design, the larger part will actually come in the second half of the year because it's so far we've taken out more headcount in the best cost countries than we have in high-cost countries. So the impact here of Germany, for instance, is coming towards the second half of the year, and even more so next year. So it's fairly, it's more the second half than first half, and we are a little bit ahead of time in the first quarter.
Mattias Holmberg (Analyst)
Thank you.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thanks.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The speakers are done for the questions. I would now like to hand the conference over to Mikael Bratt for any closing remarks.
Mikael Bratt (CEO)
Thank you, Nadia. The world is changing at an accelerating pace, and Autoliv has launched a number of strategic initiatives to meet the needs of our customers, to enhance shareholder value, and deliver safety solutions for society. I am confident that we will deliver a substantial increase in sales, operating cash flow, and adjusted operating income in 2024, supported by footprint optimization, structural cost reductions, cost compensations, and a committed focus on innovation, quality, and sustainability, and our most important direct contribution to a sustainable society, saving more lives. Our second quarter earnings call is scheduled for Friday, July 19th, 2024. Thank you everyone for participating in today's call. We sincerely appreciate your continued interest in Autoliv. Until next time, drive safely.
Operator (participant)
That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now all disconnect.