Antero Midstream - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Q1 2025 delivered a clean beat vs consensus on normalized EPS and revenue, supported by record JV processing throughput, lower interest expense, and stable fee escalators; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.25 and Adjusted EPS was $0.28. Wall Street consensus from S&P Global stood at $0.229 EPS and $281M revenue; actual normalized EPS was $0.28 and revenue $309M, both above expectations*.
• EBITDA was $274M (+3% YoY), Free Cash Flow after dividends was $79M (+7% YoY), and leverage declined to ~2.95x, enabling $29M of buybacks alongside the $0.225 dividend for the quarter.
• Operationally, Torrey’s Peak compressor came online ahead of schedule with ~160 MMcf/d capacity and ~$30M capital savings from compressor unit reuse, underpinning volume growth and 2025 flexibility.
• Management highlighted rising natural gas demand tied to data centers and in‑basin projects (Ohio/PA/WV) and reiterated a flexible capital return framework (50/50 debt paydown and buybacks) given leverage <3x.
• Near-term stock narrative: sustained FCF after dividends (> $75M second consecutive quarter), ahead-of-schedule infrastructure additions, consensus beats, and confidence in data center gas demand could support multiple stabilization while water volumes and macro LPG nuances remain watch items.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record processing throughput (JV at ~1.65 Bcf/d; >100% of nameplate) and increased low/high-pressure gathering volumes drove EBITDA growth and normalized EPS beat: “record processing volumes”; JV processing averaged 1,650 MMcf/d (+3% YoY) and was >100% utilized.
• Capital efficiency and balance sheet: leverage ~2.95x and $79M FCF after dividends, supporting dividends and $29M buybacks; “eleventh consecutive quarter” of FCF after dividends and flexibility in return of capital.
• Execution: Torrey’s Peak compressor placed in service ahead of expectations (late Q1 vs planned Q2); ~160 MMcf/d capacity and ~$30M savings from unit relocation; management quote: “placed … ahead of initial expectations… third station … resulting in over $30 million of estimated capital savings”.

What Went Wrong

• Water handling volumes -7% YoY (105 MBbl/d) with segment operating income only $8.3M despite $62.4M revenue, reflecting mix and operating expenses; management expects similar volumes Q2 given timing of completion crews.
• Fresh water fee/volume dynamics and shorter average lateral lengths temper water segment growth; guidance implies stable rather than accelerating water volumes in 2025.
• Macro LPG/propane questions remain a watch item; while management is constructive on long-term demand (PDH vs naphtha cracking), near-term tariff/macro uncertainty persists for liquids; analyst concerns surfaced in Q&A.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Please note that today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'll now turn the conference over to Justin Agnew, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Justin, you may begin.

Justin Agnew (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's Q1 Investor Conference Call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then I'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteromidstream.com, where we have provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call. Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO, and President of Antero Resources and Antero Midstream; Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Midstream; and Michael Kennedy, CFO of Antero Resources and Director of Antero Midstream.

With that, I'll turn the call over to Paul.

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thanks, Justin. Good morning, everyone. In my comments, I will discuss our 2025 capital projects and outlook for natural gas demand. Brendan will then walk through our Q1 results, capital efficiency, and return of capital to shareholders. Let me begin with slide number three, titled 2025 Capital Budget on Track. The right-hand side of the slide shows our new Torreys Peak Compressor Station.

We placed this station online in March ahead of our initial expectation of a Q2 in service date. Importantly, this station was our third compressor station, which was constructed with relocated, underutilized units. The reuse savings have totaled approximately $30 million at Torreys Peak and over $50 million across all three stations that we've done this with. Looking ahead, we expect over $60 million of additional reuse savings over the next five years. As you can see on the top left portion of the page, we do not have any large-diameter high-pressure gathering pipelines in the 2025 capital budget. Additionally, we have already secured materials, pricing, and lead times for all our steel and high-density polyethylene pipelines through 2026.

As a result, we see immaterial impacts on our 2025 and 2026 capital budget from tariffs and other macroeconomic headlines. Now let's move on to slide number four, titled Growth in Appalachia Gas Demand. The Appalachian region has quickly become a focal point for natural gas-fired power generation, data centers, and behind-the-meter projects. Over a decade ago, we recognized the significant low-cost resource base in Appalachia. Fast forward to today, and these announcements further validate our positioning. These projects will require a significant amount of gas supply for decades to come.

In addition, statewide regulations have been leading to faster approval times and attractive incentives to build in the region. AM is well-positioned with an investment-grade upstream counterparty, 20 years of dedicated inventory, and one of the largest natural gas and water systems in the region that can be supportive of future projects. While these projects generally have a longer lead time in nature, they highlight the long-term opportunity set for natural gas-focused midstream companies such as AM. I'll finish my comments on slide number five, titled Natural Gas Demand Estimates Continue to Increase. This slide illustrates the upward momentum in natural gas demand estimates to power data centers. In just the last six months, the expectations for the power required for data centers by 2030 have doubled, as shown on the chart on the left-hand side of the page.

The right-hand side illustrates the percentage of data centers expected to be powered by natural gas, which has increased from 50% to 70%. This compounding effect supports significant growth in natural gas demand over the next several years. With that, I'll turn the call over to Brendan Krueger, CFO for Antero Midstream.

Brendan Krueger (SVP of Finance and Treasurer)

Thanks, Paul. I will begin my comments on slide number six, titled Q1 Highlights. During the Q1, we generated $274 million of EBITDA, which was a 3% increase year-over-year. This was driven primarily by an increase in gathering and processing volumes, the latter of which set a company record at 1.65 BCF a day. Looking forward to the remainder of 2025, we expect further increases in gathering volumes to drive low to mid single-digit year-over-year growth in gathering volumes in 2025 versus 2024. During the Q1, free cash flow after dividends was $79 million, a 7% increase year-over-year.

This was the 11th consecutive quarter generating free cash flow after dividends and the second straight quarter above that $75 million mark. We utilized this free cash flow to reduce absolute debt and repurchase over $29 million of shares during the quarter. Importantly, our leverage declined towards 2.9 times as of March 31. Next, let's move on to slide seven, titled Low Debt and Capital-Efficient Business Model. This slide compares AM's leverage and capital efficiency to other companies in the midstream industry. In addition to lowering our overall risk profile, our debt reduction efforts have reduced our leverage below three times, well below the C Corp peer average.

Looking at capital expenditures as a percent of EBITDA, which highlights overall capital efficiency, AM is best in class with a 17% reinvestment rate. This is a result of our just-in-time capital investment philosophy and visibility into our primary customers' development plan. With low debt and leverage and an attractive reinvestment rate, AM has the capacity to return a significant amount of capital to shareholders. As highlighted on the bottom chart, based on consensus estimates, AM has the ability to allocate approximately 65% of its EBITDA for dividends, additional debt reduction, and share repurchases. This is nearly double the C Corp average in the midstream space. I'll finish my comments on slide eight, titled Well-Positioned to Enhance Shareholder Returns, to elaborate on those return of capital opportunities.

The last several years have been focused on debt reduction and accretive bolt-on acquisitions. Looking ahead, our low debt and capital efficiency have positioned us well to pay an attractive dividend, repurchase shares, and be opportunistic on M&A opportunities should they arise. We believe this flexible approach directs capital to the highest rate of return opportunities that will accrue directly to our shareholders. This capital allocation flexibility is beneficial during times where we see opportunities in the equity relative to our current and future cash flow profile, which have been largely unaffected by the recent macro volatility. In fact, we believe the medium to longer-term outlook is only getting brighter. With that, operator, we are ready to take questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question at this time, please press star one from your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue. For participants that are using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we poll for questions.

Thank you. Thank you, our first question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Jeremy Tonet (Research Analyst and Managing Director)

Hi, good morning.

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Good morning.

Brendan Krueger (SVP of Finance and Treasurer)

Morning.

Jeremy Tonet (Research Analyst and Managing Director)

Just wanted to touch on a bit more, I guess, about the potential for in-basin demand growth, which could help with AR's outlook as far as looking for more growth there. How do you see this opportunity set shaping up over time, given the rich resource and the favorable attributes of the region?

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah, I think there's quite a few projects that have already been announced, and I think we see quite a few discussions continuing to take place around local power demand, particularly the power data centers, but other industrial uses as well in the region. You're seeing it in Ohio and Pennsylvania, and I think there's been a lot of momentum lately in West Virginia as well in terms of getting some bills passed in West Virginia. A lot of momentum. Where that ultimately plays out, I think it's still a bit early, but we're well-positioned given the significant infrastructure we have in place both on the gathering and water side with Antero Midstream, and AR is, of course, well-positioned to participate in that as well. We like where we're at. A lot of conversations happening, but still early in some of those conversations.

Jeremy Tonet (Research Analyst and Managing Director)

Got it. Thank you for that. I know on the AR call, you talked a bit about the LPG market, but just wondering if you could talk a bit here, I guess, the outlook for propane and, I guess, AR strategy to mitigate that risk and how that impacts AM.

David Cannelongo (SVP for Liquids Marketing & Transportation)

Yeah, this is Dave Cannelongo. Just touching on the propane strategy, I mean, I think we will reiterate our confidence in the long-term outlook for that product. I mean, there's really no true substitute for it in the Res/Com markets. Folks can go back to solid fuels, but that's obviously a huge reduction in the quality of living standards that they've moved to. I think you'll continue to see that market grow. There's really nothing else that's going to reach those markets and the billions of people that are prime candidates for switching to LPG.

The ResCom market growth is very steady and sticky. On the petrochemical side, we've talked a lot about PDHs in the past, and there's a question out there around whether or not, with the tariff landscape of China, will reduce propane imports, and naphtha cracking will increase. I just want to kind of make the point that cracking naphtha in a steam cracker is not a replacement for propane and a PDH. A PDH is going to produce around 85% of propylene when you put it into the unit, and when you crack naphtha, you're going to get about 15% of propylene out of it.

They are really not substitute type of products for what people are looking for. I think the reason why you've seen the global market go to PDH is that propylene is a product they need and want for the types of ultimate products that are being manufactured around the world. Cracking naphtha is not really going to accomplish that for you in the long run. We think this will continue to see growing petrochemical demand for propane because it's such a unique product and what it can deliver to those petrochemical companies and the ultimate consumers.

Jeremy Tonet (Research Analyst and Managing Director)

Got it. That makes sense. This might be a bit premature, but on the other side of the cycle, just wondering what's the outlook for the JV here. It continues to run above nameplate, and if the propane market grows over time, could there be more liquids-rich production in the basin, and could that lead to—would you want to participate in any expansion there in the JV on the frac side?

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah, I mean, I think today where we're at, I think we're comfortable. We're running about 4% over nameplate. I think historically, you've seen those run as high as 10% over nameplate, so there's still some room in those facilities. I think just depending on where prices move and long-term outlook for gas and liquids, we'll reevaluate down the road. I think as we sit here today, comfortable with the position we're in and a maintenance capital mode on the AR side.

Jeremy Tonet (Research Analyst and Managing Director)

Got it. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thanks.

Michael Kennedy (CFO)

Thanks, Jeremy.

Operator (participant)

The next questions are from the line of Naomi Marfatia with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.

Naomi Marfatia (Associate Director of Equity Research)

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. Just to follow-up on your commentary on data centers, you all gave a good rundown in your prepared remarks, but just curious if you could provide any additional details on how conversations are heading about commercialization and how AM could benefit from the trend.

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah, I don't think today, as we sit here, anything more to say on that. We're continuing to have those conversations, as I mentioned. AM, with the infrastructure it has, can certainly participate through additional infrastructure build-out to the necessary demand areas. Again, too early to give any more specifics on that as we sit here today.

Naomi Marfatia (Associate Director of Equity Research)

Got it. My second question is related to capital allocation. You all have done buybacks since the last two quarters, and the leverage is below three times target. How should we think about your strategy on M&A or bolt-on now that you all own most of the gathering and compression in West Virginia?

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah, so on the overall allocation there, we are below three times. I think we continue to see that portfolio approach, both paying down debt and buying back shares accrue to the equity. At what level does that stop accruing on the debt side? I do not think we have reached that yet, so it will likely be a continued approach going forward. On the M&A side, always looking at opportunities. Over the past few years, we have added some very strategic bolt-on acquisitions that support AR, and so we will continue to look at opportunities like that.

We are well-positioned given our balance sheet profile to capitalize on some of those opportunities should they present, always looking out there and well-positioned.

Naomi Marfatia (Associate Director of Equity Research)

Great. I'll leave it there. Thank you.

Michael Kennedy (CFO)

Thanks. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

The next questions are from the line of John Mackay with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your question.

John Mackay (VP of Equity Research)

Hey, team. I appreciate the comments on the LPG side of things. I guess I'd just be curious to kind of ask it in maybe a more direct way. I mean, from an AM perspective, we obviously care about the volume side. How much softer would pricing need to get to see a kind of production response from AR that would hit AM's volumes?

Michael Kennedy (CFO)

Yeah, you really can't get there, John. This is Mike Kennedy. We actually sensitized it to COVID prices, and it still wasn't there. If you have natural gas prices where they're at, we still have substantial free cash flow. And even if we don't, we don't have any debt, really. So we would continue to run our two-rig, one-plus completion crew program, really absent any sort of commodity price at this location. We'd continue to run it regardless.

John Mackay (VP of Equity Research)

That's clear. That's helpful, thank you. You guys have done a lot on, I guess you'd kind of say, the self-help side of things for compressor stations, etc. I understand there aren't a ton more assets kind of inside the fence to buy. Is there anything else you can do on kind of optimizing the cost side? We've seen some of your peers kind of more on the Permian talk about maybe some self-powering projects. Anything like that on the radar for you guys?

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah, I mean, I think we've talked about some of these in the past just around AR and being the largest consumer of power in the state. Certainly, there's opportunities to potentially look at behind the meter on those things, but those are, again, in probably the early parts of conversation, whether they move forward still early at this point. There are opportunities, but they're bolt-on kind of in and around where we look today. That's all I'd say at this point.

John Mackay (VP of Equity Research)

That's interesting. Thanks for the time, guys. Appreciate it.

Michael Kennedy (CFO)

John.

Operator (participant)

The next question is from the line of Zack Van Everen with TPH. Please proceed with your questions.

Zack Van Everen (Director of Infrastructure Research)

Hey, guys. Thanks for taking my question. Just a quick one on water. You guys service 28 wells this quarter. I know you mentioned a lot of those, or eight of those were kind of to the back of the quarter. Are you still expecting to service the 70-75 you guys had in your guidance, which would kind of point towards a step down for maybe Q2?

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah, we're still looking at that similar number. I think those eight, most of that volume we tried to highlight, it will fall into that Q2. If you look at Q1 to Q2, I'd expect a pretty similar level of volume. You had the second completion crew running for a month in the Q1, and you'll have it running for a month in the Q2. You should expect similar volumes there.

Zack Van Everen (Director of Infrastructure Research)

Okay. That's helpful. Then on the lateral length, still expecting the 13,200. I know the AR length of completed came in a little bit higher, but is that still a good average to look at?

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Yeah, that's a good number to think about.

Zack Van Everen (Director of Infrastructure Research)

All right. Appreciate it. Thanks, guys.

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO, and President)

Thanks, Zack.

Jeremy Tonet (Research Analyst and Managing Director)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

As a reminder, if you'd like to ask a question at this time, you may press star one. Thank you. At this time, I'll hand the floor back to Justin Agnew for closing remarks.

Justin Agnew (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)

Thank you, operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining today's conference call. Please feel free to reach out with any follow-up questions.

Operator (participant)

This will conclude today's conference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation. Have a wonderful day.