Antero Midstream - Earnings Call - Q4 2024

Executive Summary

• Q4 2024 delivered solid growth: revenue rose to $287.5M, Adjusted EBITDA to $274.3M (+8% YoY), and diluted EPS to $0.23, with Free Cash Flow after dividends up 91% YoY to $92.8M.
• Segment mix improved sequentially as Water Handling revenue stepped up ($62.1M vs. $44.3M in Q3) on higher completion activity, while Gathering & Processing held steady (~$225M).
• 2025 guide introduced: Net Income $445–$485M, Adjusted EBITDA $1.08–$1.12B, capex $170–$200M, and Free Cash Flow after dividends $250–$300M (assuming $0.90 annual dividend), implying mid-single-digit EBITDA growth and a ~10% FCF after dividends increase at the midpoint.
• Management emphasized increased return of capital flexibility after meeting the 3.0x leverage target, with a nascent buyback program ($29M in Q4) and a stated framework to split post-dividend FCF roughly 50/50 between buybacks and debt reduction going forward.
• Consensus estimate data from S&P Global was unavailable at time of analysis; beat/miss vs. Street cannot be assessed today.*

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record cash generation metrics: Q4 Adjusted EBITDA grew 8% YoY to $274M and Free Cash Flow after dividends rose 91% YoY to $93M, enabling debt reduction and buybacks.
• Water Handling outperformance: Fresh water delivery volumes rose 21% YoY to 114 MBbl/d, lifting water revenue to $62M (vs. $44M in Q3) as AR completed a DUC pad in December, with cadence suggesting more water in Q2 2025.
• Confident 2025 outlook: “We expect another year of increases in our EBITDA and Free Cash Flow after dividends,” positioning AM “for further debt reduction and increases in return of capital to shareholders”.

What Went Wrong

• Core gas throughput slightly softer YoY: Low-pressure gathering (-3%) and compression (-2%) declined versus Q4 2023; JV processing was down 2% YoY, though capacity remained fully utilized.
• Operating cost headwinds in water: Water Handling operating expenses were $30M (including $22M for wastewater and high-rate transfer), partly offsetting revenue gains.
• Legal overhang: Management noted no additional disclosure on the Veolia litigation beyond the 10-K and that outcomes/timing remain uncertain; any proceeds would be allocated across debt paydown and buybacks.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Greetings and welcome to the Antero Midstream fourth quarter 2024 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. Question and answer session will follow the formal presentation. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Justin Agnew, Vice President of Finance and Investor Relations. Justin, you may now begin.

Justin Agnew (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)

Thanks, Operator, and good morning, everybody. Thank you for joining us for Antero Midstream's fourth quarter investor conference call. We'll spend a few minutes going through the financial and operating highlights, and then we'll open it up for Q&A. I would also like to direct you to the homepage of our website at www.anteromidstream.com, where we've provided a separate earnings call presentation that will be reviewed during today's call. Today's call may also contain certain non-GAAP financial measures. Please refer to our earnings press release for important disclosures regarding such measures, including reconciliations to the most comparable GAAP financial measures. Joining me on the call today are Paul Rady, Chairman, CEO, and President of Antero Resources and Antero Midstream; Brendan Krueger, CFO of Antero Midstream; and Michael Kennedy, CFO of Antero Resources and Director of Antero Midstream. With that, I'll turn the call over to Paul.

Paul Rady (Chairman, CEO and President)

Thanks, Justin. Good morning, everyone. In my comments, I will discuss AM's consistent EBITDA growth and increasing return on invested capital. I will also spend time highlighting our 2025 capital budget. Brendan will then walk through our fourth quarter results and discuss our 2025 guidance and outlook. Let's start on slide number three, titled "A Decade of Consistent Growth and Returns." This slide illustrates AM's EBITDA growth and Return on Invested Capital, or ROIC. In 2024, we generated EBITDA of $1.05 billion, our 10th consecutive year of EBITDA growth. Importantly, in 2024, we generated an ROIC of 19%, which was a company record. Our just-in-time capital investment philosophy, unparalleled visibility, and accretion from our bolt-on acquisition all contributed to the increase in ROIC in 2024. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect continued EBITDA growth driven by year-over-year throughput growth, which Brendan will provide more details around.

Now, let's move on to slide number four, titled "2025 Capital Budget Summary." In 2025, we budgeted $170 million-$200 million of capital expenditures. This consists of approximately $100 million of organic capital and $15 million investment in the Stonewall joint venture. Our gathering and compression capital for 2025 is approximately $85 million, about half of the previously mentioned $170 million of organic capital. This includes our traditional blocking and tackling, low-pressure gathering connects, and the remaining capital for our Torreys Peak compressor station, which is depicted on the right-hand side of the page. This station will have 160 million cu ft a day of capacity and is expected to be placed in service during the second quarter of 2025. This station was built with relocated units from an underutilized station that resulted in approximately $25 million of estimated savings.

In the water business segment, we are investing approximately $85 million in 2025. This $85 million includes an expansion of our water system to the southern half of our Marcellus footprint and creates one integrated system across the entire liquids-rich midstream corridor. This upgrade will support capital-efficient development and flexibility across the entire acreage position for the next decade and beyond. Lastly, let's discuss our $15 million investment in Stonewall, which is the primary driver of the increase in capital expenditures year-over-year. This investment is for additional compression on the Stonewall gathering system. The additional compression will allow third-party customers to deliver gas through Stonewall onto other long-haul pipelines, further diversifying Antero Midstream's customer base. With that, I will turn the call over to Brendan.

Brendan Krueger (CFO)

Thanks, Paul. I will begin my comments on slide number five, titled "Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2024 Highlights." During the fourth quarter, we generated $274 million of EBITDA, which was an 8% increase year-over-year. Free cash flow after dividends was $93 million, a 91% increase year-over-year. Importantly, this increase in free cash flow allowed us to reduce absolute debt by over $50 million and achieve our three-times leverage target during the quarter. As a result, we commenced our share repurchase program, repurchasing almost $30 million of shares during the quarter. Looking at full year 2024 results, we generated $250 million of free cash flow after dividends, which was a company record. This allowed us to internally finance our Marcellus bolt-on acquisition earlier this year, reduce debt by almost $100 million, and repurchase shares all within the same year.

Now, let's move on to slide number six, titled "2025 Guidance." As we look ahead to 2025, we are forecasting similar levels of development activity from our primary customer, Antero Resources. This includes approximately two rigs and just over one completion crew operating exclusively on AM dedicated acreage. This is expected to result in low single-digit throughput growth on AM system and consistent freshwater delivery volumes year-over-year. This growth in our gathering and processing segment, combined with annual CPI adjustments to our fees, results in mid-single-digit EBITDA growth, as depicted on the top left portion of the page. As Paul noted, our capital budget is $170 million-$200 million. We expect our interest expense to be lower in 2025 as a result of lower absolute debt levels.

As a result, we expect to generate $250 million-$300 million in free cash flow after dividends, which is a 10% increase year-over-year at the midpoint. I'll finish my comments on slide number seven, titled "Flexible Approach to Shareholder Returns." In 2024, we were one of the only midstream companies that reduced absolute debt, acquired assets, paid an attractive dividend, and repurchased shares. Looking ahead to 2025, we expect to maintain our $0.90 per share dividend and allocate the remaining free cash flow after dividends to share repurchases and additional debt reduction. In summary, we are very excited about 2025. Our capital budgets, focused on the lowest-cost natural gas basin in North America, continue to get more efficient.

This capital efficiency drives the double-digit increase in free cash flow after dividends in 2025 and positions us well for the incremental return of capital to shareholders that we believe drives long-term shareholder value. With that, Operator, we are ready to take questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question-and-answer session. If you'd like to ask a question at this time, you may press star one from your telephone keypad, and a confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to withdraw your question from the queue. For participants that are using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up the handset before pressing the star keys. One moment, please, while we pull for questions. Thank you. Our first question today comes from the line of Naomi Marfatia with UBS. Please proceed with your questions.

Naomi Marfatia (Associate Director and Equity Research)

Hi, good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. My first question is relating to data centers. Can you talk about AR's plans as it relates to future data center deals, and how does that translate into AM?

Brendan Krueger (CFO)

Yeah, I think on the last call that AR had this morning, I think AR is well-positioned with its transport portfolio and also just being in the region in Appalachia that, to the extent there are data center opportunities, we're in those discussions. Whether any of that comes to fruition, I think it's still early at this point. And AM, being the primary midstream service provider to AR, would, of course, be part of those discussions as well. So again, early on in some of those conversations, so we'll continue to keep everyone posted to the extent that materializes in anything.

Naomi Marfatia (Associate Director and Equity Research)

Okay, thanks. And my second question is relating to AR's increased production guide. Just wanted to understand if AR could return to higher activity levels in 2025 and if AR could possibly assume that it'll go activity going forward?

Brendan Krueger (CFO)

Yeah, so for 2025, AR does have a drilling JV, so from a gross volume perspective, you will see increases in volumes at the AM level in the low single-digit level. That, combined with the CPI escalator on fees, is what drives that kind of mid-single-digit EBITDA growth year-over-year in 2025. So nice low-digit growth at AM on the volume side and nice cash flow growth in the mid-single-digit side as well.

Naomi Marfatia (Associate Director and Equity Research)

Okay, thanks. I'll leave it there. Have a great rest of your day.

Brendan Krueger (CFO)

Thank you. You as well.

Operator (participant)

Our next question is from the line of Jeremy Tonet with JPMorgan. Please proceed with your questions.

Noah Katz (Equity Research Associate)

Hey, this is Noah Katz on for Jeremy. Thanks for the question. First, I wanted to touch on the recent disclosures on the Veolia lawsuit. Can you provide any more details on the events in December and where AM is in the process? And then, with the $19 million you received for attorney's fees and costs, what can we expect AM to use this inflow of cash for? Can we expect higher buybacks throughout 2025 with the increase in cash? Thanks.

Brendan Krueger (CFO)

Yeah, on your first question, no additional disclosure outside of what we've put in the 10-K, so still waiting through the appeal process in terms of they have the ability to appeal further. And so no opinion in terms of where that plays out at this juncture. And then, to the extent cash flow does come in from that lawsuit, depending on when that comes in, we'll, of course, analyze what makes sense from a capital allocation standpoint, but would likely just be more of the same in terms of portfolio approach across debt paydown and buying back shares.

Noah Katz (Equity Research Associate)

Sounds good. Thanks for that. And maybe as a follow-up, just to get a bit deeper on the $85 million invested in water infrastructure in 2025, can you provide more details on this integrated water system in the Marcellus you're building and what specific cost efficiencies you guys can benefit from? I don't know if you guys can provide any numbers around that at all. Thank you.

Brendan Krueger (CFO)

Yeah, so for the $85 million, it's really across a couple of projects. One is the integrated water system we talked about, building further to the south. The benefit is that, from an AR perspective, it allows AR to develop the entire field across the liquids-rich corridor, both in the northwest, southwest, southern portion. So a lot of areas and options for AR to develop. I think the benefit from an AM perspective is we also have a lot of legacy infrastructure in the southern portion. And so, to the extent AR does develop south, it should require less overall capital spend on infrastructure in that southern portion. So great project overall, I think, for the family, and looking forward to executing on that.

And then the other major water project is just continuing to build out the backbone of the water system in the northern part of the play as well. So building the water system further across the entire acreage position.

Noah Katz (Equity Research Associate)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question is from the line of Olivia Halferty with Goldman Sachs. Please proceed with your questions.

Olivia Halferty (Equity Research Associate)

Hey, good morning. Thank you for taking our questions. Maybe we'll stay on water for a moment. AM's water well service stepped up meaningfully in the quarter, and the full year 2025 guidance range implies continued growth here. Wondering if we can walk through drivers of the sequential and year-over-year step-ups and any impacts from the AR drilling partnership, and then maybe looking longer term, how should we expect the water business to trend versus AR production activity?

Brendan Krueger (CFO)

Yeah, so for the fourth quarter, we did have a DUC pad that AR talked about on its earnings call that was primarily completed in December, which drove the increased volumes in the fourth quarter, really running with two completion crews. As we look forward to 2025, we would expect a similar level of overall water volume compared to 2024. We are servicing more wells, but the lateral lengths are a couple thousand feet shorter on average. So water feed overall and water use should be similar year over year. And then in terms of cadence, as you think about 2025, we talked about one of the DUC pads being completed in the third quarter. So that's when you'd likely be running two completion crews, call it end of the second quarter.

So you should see probably a little bit more water in the second quarter versus the other quarters in the year.

Olivia Halferty (Equity Research Associate)

Got it. That's helpful color. And maybe pivoting to capital allocation, particularly on the back of the solid free cash flow outlook, how should we think about potentially accretive M&A competing with additional buybacks versus further potential deleveraging? And then maybe on buybacks specifically, is there any way to frame up the right run rate of buybacks to trend under the $500 million authorization versus the $29 million executed this quarter?

Brendan Krueger (CFO)

Yeah, so on the M&A, I mean, we're certainly looking at all opportunities in basin, particularly. And as we look at those opportunities, we look at returns relative to paying down debt and buying back shares at AM as well. So to the extent organic M&A opportunities compete on a rate of return perspective, we'll certainly look at those. And then as it relates to buybacks, as we look at each kind of quarter's expected free cash flow, it's likely a 50/50 mix after dividends between share repurchases and further debt pay down is a good number to think about moving forward.

Olivia Halferty (Equity Research Associate)

Got it. Super helpful. I'll leave it there. Thanks.

Brendan Krueger (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. If you'd like to ask a question at this time, you may press star one. Thank you. At this time, I'll turn the floor back to Justin Agnew for closing remarks.

Justin Agnew (VP of Finance and Investor Relations)

Thank you, Operator, and thank you, everyone, for joining today's call. Please feel free to reach out with any follow-up questions. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. We thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines at this time.