AM
APPLIED MATERIALS INC /DE (AMAT)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Record revenue and margin expansion: Net revenue $7.17B (+7% y/y), non-GAAP gross margin 48.9% (+100 bps y/y), and non-GAAP EPS $2.38 (+12% y/y) on favorable mix, adoption of leading-edge systems, and progress on value-based pricing .
- GAAP EPS declined 40% y/y to $1.45 due to a one-time $644M ($0.79 per share) tax expense from Singapore deferred tax asset remeasurement; non-GAAP tax rate was 12.8% .
- Q2 FY25 guidance: revenue $7.10B ± $0.40B, non-GAAP gross margin ~48.4%, non-GAAP EPS $2.30 ± $0.18; segment guide: Semi Systems ~$5.3B, AGS ~$1.55B, Display ~$250M; modeled tax rate ~13% and OpEx ~$1.3B .
- Export-control headwind: ~+$400M FY25 revenue impact (≈$200M in Q2), weighted more to AGS in 2H; China mix expected ~5 pts lower in Q2 vs Q1 (to ~26%) .
- Stock reaction catalysts: record margins and strong Q2 outlook despite export-control headwinds; strategic positioning at AI-driven inflections (GAA, backside power, HBM, advanced packaging) and value-pricing momentum .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Leading-edge momentum and mix: “Non-GAAP gross margin was 48.9%, up 100 bps y/y...result of a very favorable mix and increasing adoption of our leading-edge technologies and advanced integrated systems” .
- Share gains at key inflections: “On track to capture >50% share of served market in gate-all-around and backside power...gained 10 points of DRAM share” .
- Advanced packaging traction: $1.7B AP revenue in FY24 with plans to double “over the next several years”; volume orders received for integrated hybrid bonding system .
What Went Wrong
- China/exports headwinds: incremental ~+$400M FY25 headwind, with ~half in Q2 and remainder more weighted to AGS in 2H as certain customers can no longer be served .
- Display softness: segment revenue fell to $183M and margin 7.7% amid lower investment levels and end-market weakness .
- Cash conversion slower: Cash from ops fell to $925M and non-GAAP FCF to $544M on working capital movements and lower new billings; DSO rose to 76 days (vs 64) on timing of payments and revenue linearity .
Financial Results
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “Applied Materials is enabling the major device architecture inflections critical for energy‑efficient AI...positioning Applied for continued growth and outperformance” — Gary Dickerson, CEO .
- “Non‑GAAP gross margin was 48.9%, up 100 basis points y/y...our highest quarterly gross margin since fiscal year 2000” — Brice Hill, CFO .
- “We estimate the incremental impact of these new rules will be around $400 million of revenue in fiscal 2025, approximately half of which is service revenue” — Gary Dickerson .
- “We expect total revenue of $7.1B ± $400M and non‑GAAP EPS of $2.30 ± $0.18 for Q2” — Brice Hill .
Q&A Highlights
- WFE and share outperformance: Management expects leading-edge acceleration to offset ICAPS moderation; reiterated share gains in GAA/backside power, DRAM, HBM, packaging .
- AGS trajectory under controls: ~half of FY25 impact in Q2; returns to growth in Q3 despite continued constraints; core AGS still low double-digit growth ex-impact .
- Gross margin sustainability: Baseline ~48% with mix upside; value-pricing “third inning” with disciplined execution tied to integrated solutions .
- 2nm node outlook: Expected to be a large node given energy-efficiency focus in AI; bullish customer sentiment .
- China mix: Long-term normalized ~30%; Q2 modeled ~26% given controls; ICAPS remains the largest China driver .
Estimates Context
- S&P Global consensus estimates (EPS and revenue) were not available at time of analysis due to provider request limits; therefore, beat/miss vs consensus cannot be assessed. Values from S&P Global were unavailable.
- Where guidance comparisons are provided, they reference company-issued guidance and reported actuals from primary source documents .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Mix-led margin story: Record non-GAAP gross margin (48.9%) with continued pricing discipline and adoption of integrated systems supports durable baseline ~48% through FY25 despite export headwinds .
- Leading-edge capacity ramps: Strong positioning at GAA/backside power and compute DRAM/HBM (materials intensity tailwind) underpins Semi Systems growth trajectory in FY25 and beyond .
- Export-control overhang manageable: ~$400M FY25 revenue impact, ~half in Q2, weighted to AGS in 2H; management still guides y/y growth in Q2 and expects AGS to resume growth in Q3 .
- Geographic mix shifting away from China near term (Q2 down ~5 pts vs Q1), with Korea/Taiwan strength; reduces policy risk concentration while sustaining demand via leading-edge ramps .
- Capital returns remain robust: $1.64B returned in Q1; dividend raised to $0.46/quarter and repurchase authorization increased by $10B, signaling confidence in multi-year outlook .
- Display a smaller contributor with volatile investment cycles; near-term softness offset by expected OLED IT adoption cycle and current Q2 rebound in segment guide ($250M) .
- Near-term trading: Watch Q2 mix and China percentage, confirmation of Semi Systems ~$5.3B and gross margin ~48.4%; medium-term thesis anchored on AI-enabled device architecture inflections and AP growth .