Ambarella - Q4 2023
February 28, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day. Thank you for standing by. Welcome to Ambarella's fourth quarter fiscal year 2023 earnings call. At this time, all participants are in listen only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there'll be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during this session, you'll need to press star one one on your telephone. You will hear an automated message advising you your hand is raised. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please be advised that today's conference is being recorded. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Louis Gerhardy, Corporate Development. Please go ahead.
Louis Gerhardy (VP of Corporate Development)
Thank you, Catherine, and good day, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023 financial results call. On the call with me today is Dr. Fermi Wang, President and CEO, and Brian White, CFO. The primary purpose of today's call is to provide you with information regarding the results for our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2023. The discussion today and the responses to your questions will contain forward-looking statements regarding our projected financial results, financial prospects, market growth, and demand for our solutions, among other things. These statements are subject to risks, uncertainties, and assumptions. Should any of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should our assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements. We're under no obligation to update these statements.
These risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, as well as other information on potential risk factors that could affect our financial results, are more fully described in the documents that we file with the SEC, including the annual report on Form 10-K that we filed on April 1st, 2022 for fiscal year 2022, ending January 31st, 2022. Also the Form 10-Q filed on December 9th, 2022 for the third quarter of fiscal year 2023. Access to our fourth quarter and fiscal 2023 results press release, transcripts, historical results, SEC filings, and a replay of today's call can be found on the investor relations page of our website. Fermi will now provide a business update for the quarter.
Brian will review the financial results and outlook, and then we'll all be available for your questions. Fermi?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Thank you, Louis, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our call today. We achieved a significant milestone during the fiscal 2023 in our ongoing transformation to an edge AI company. On the technology and product execution front, we broadly sampled the first of our third generation edge AI SoC, CV3-80, commenced mass production of our first 5nm SoC, CV5, introduced our centralized 4D imaging radar, and took an important step towards the commercialization of our automotive software stack IP. On the business front, we announced strategic partnerships with global automotive leaders such as Bosch and Continental, and the customer interest and activity with our edge AI products continue to grow.
As of the end of fiscal year, we have cumulatively shipped more than 13 million computer vision SoCs to more than 325 unique customers, with more than 230 customer products in production, an increase of more than 50% from a year ago. CV represented more than 45% of fiscal 2023 revenue, and it was a factor driving our firm-wide SoC average selling price up. In fiscal 2024, we expect CV to continue to grow in absolute dollars to represent about 60% of total revenue. This is expected to continue to drive our ASP higher. Fiscal 2023 was not without its challenges. As the year progressed, cyclical and economic headwinds became more significant, negatively impacting our revenue results and outlook.
Despite the challenges in the second half of fiscal 2023, we reported record annual revenue of $337.6 million, up about 2% year-over-year. With our technology leadership and the scalability of it increasingly recognized by customers globally, we don't believe the current softness has anything to do with the technical competitiveness of our new technology and products. We remain committed to build out a complete edge AI portfolio of SoCs and the software. I would like to highlight some of the customer engagements that cause us to be so encouraged about our long-term outlook. During Q4, we took two important steps towards the commercialization of our software IP. First, and building up Continental's November announcement that it would offer ADAS solutions based on Ambarella's CV3 AI central domain controller.
On January 4th, we announced Continental and Ambarella were extending their cooperation to include the full software stack development for ADAS and autonomous driving applications. The two companies will jointly develop scalable end-to-end hardware and software solutions with Ambarella software IP embedded in Continental's full stack. Second, we announced in December that world's first centralized 4D imaging radar architecture, combining Ambarella's Oculii adaptive AI radar software and the efficient CV3 AI domain controllers enables the central processing and the fusion of a raw 4D imaging radar data with other sensor inputs, including camera, LiDAR, and ultrasonics. We believe this breakthrough architecture provides great environmental perception and safer path planning in AI-based L2 to L4 autonomous driving systems. Business development momentum with our CV3 family was strong in the quarter too.
In December, Bosch announced it plans to adopt the CV3 family of AI central domain controllers for the realization of the next-generation ADAS functions. Bosch requires efficient and flexible high-performance computing, as well as the scalability to enable software stack to be reused from Level 2 to Level 4 applications. Bosch stated that they are adopting Ambarella's CV3 family because it is the perfect fit to accelerate time to market and to create scalable solution for their customers. During CES, we announced CV3-AD685, the first production SoC in the CV3 family of AI central domain controller for Level 2 to Level 4 vehicles.
The third generation CVflow AI engine in CV3-AD685 includes neural network processing that is 20 times faster than previous generation of CV2 SoCs, along with additional general vector processing capabilities to provide the overall performance required for full autonomous driving stack processing, including computer vision, 4D radar, deep fusion and planning. We are proud to note next-generation transformer network have been successfully deployed by customers onto CV3, which highlights the flexibility and efficiency of the architecture of autonomous driving and potentially other applications in the near future. We had a highly successful CES 2023, with more than 200 customer meetings, and we demonstrated a wide range of automotive and IoT solutions, including many joint demonstrations with our automotive tier one and the software partners.
Our CV3 won a CES 2023 Innovation Award in the embedded technologies category. We offered demo rides in our latest EVA car, featuring a single CV3 central domain controller performing all perception, classification, and path planning functions, and processing both camera and the radar data. The EVA car included 15 cameras and nine radars with industry-leading power efficiency. Together with Continental, we demonstrated a single CV3 connected to six 8-megapixel cameras and four 3-megapixel cameras, while running multiple neural networks on each video stream, utilizing about 10% of the CV3-AD processor. Other CES highlights included Kodiak Robotics, which exhibited its self-driving truck integrating Ambarella's CV2AQ AI vision processor in the sensor path on both sides of this truck for the camera perception processing.
Autobrains and Seeing Machines demonstrated a combined front ADAS and driving monitor solution running on a single CVflow SoC. The company's joint effort provides automakers with a streamlined single box multi-camera solution, including up to 8-megapixel forward-facing camera and a 5-megapixel in-cabin camera. In February, China-based Hyperview, an autonomous driving technology company, announced that it had selected Ambarella's CV3-AD family to develop a high-performance computing autonomous driving platform. The development will pair CV3 with Hyperview's software stack to provide production-ready perception, automated driving, and parking solutions. Hyperview has previously achieved mass production with multiple Chinese OEMs, we are pleased they have chosen to incorporate CV3 into their new products. I will now discuss some of our customers' product introductions during the quarter.
We are extremely excited to announce our first 4D imaging radar project will soon be entering mass production at Geely's Lotus Technology unit. Geely intended to leverage the Lotus technology and brand into market for higher volume passenger vehicles. Lotus announced its Eletre pure electric SUV, which includes two 4D imaging radars based on Ambarella's Oculii radar technology, one in the front and one in the back, providing high-resolution imaging capable of detecting and tracking vehicles within 300 meters and the pedestrian within 100 meters, and accurately measuring the speed and the distance of objects. After announcing a CV3 relationship with Bosch Mobility, we were excited to extend the relationship to the CV2 family of SoCs. During CES, Bosch introduced its new connected RideCare platform and the companion fleet camera based on our CV25 AI processor.
The product was honored as a CES 2023 Innovation Awards Best of Innovation honoree in the in-vehicle entertainment and safety category. Amazon Ring at the show also introduced its Ring Car Cam based on our H22 chip. The Car Cam features dual-facing cameras and can monitor the car's interior as well as on the road. Garmin also announced the CV25-based Dash Cam Live camera at CES. The camera provides 140 degrees, 1440 HD views and included live view, theft alerts, and location tracking. In the enterprise security camera market, European market leader Axis introduced a number of cameras based on our CV25. The M3088-V compact dome camera is an 8-megapixel design with WDR processing and the support for analytics with deep learning at edge.
The new small form factor M1055 and M1075 box cameras target small stores and residential care applications and feature edge-based deep learning and 1080p video. Korean market leader Hanwha introduced three new enterprise-class models in its 9,000 camera series, all based on our CV2 AI vision processor. The 4K models include box, bullet, and panel-panoramic designs and feature AI-based analytics, including object classification, license plate recognition, and car make and model recognition. Korean-based IDIS also introduced its DC-S6281HX Speed Dome camera based on our S3L vision processor and featuring 30x optical zoom capability. These really representative engagements illustrate how we are successfully leveraging our state-of-the-art video processing heritage into larger, more diverse, and higher quality markets for high-bandwidth processors and the software for machine sensing applications.
A majority of the early growth we have seen with our edge AI products to date has been for new product cycles in existing IoT markets like Axis and Hanwha Techwin and enterprise security camera engagements I just discussed. We are encouraged with our early success in critical new areas like a CV3 family of central domain controllers for Level 2 to Level 4 mobility applications. CV3 in a single SoC synergistically leveraging the functionality Ambarella has created over the years, camera and radar processing, deep learning AI, and automotive software stack IP. While we are experiencing near-term pressure on our revenue from cyclical and economic sectors, we firmly believe our secular growth opportunities remain very positive, and we remain focused on leveraging our leadership position in edge AI.
AI is just beginning to transform so many industries, and we expect that AI adoption to accelerate over the coming years in the AI edge inference market. That is our area of focus. Now I will hand it over to Brian. Thank you.
Brian White (CFO)
Thanks, Fermi. I'll review the financial highlights for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2023. I'll also provide a financial outlook for our first quarter of fiscal year 2024 ending April 30, 2023. I'll be discussing non-GAAP results. I ask that you refer to today's press release for a detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results. For non-GAAP reporting, we have eliminated stock-based compensation expense and acquisition-related costs adjusted for the impact of taxes. Fiscal year 2023 revenue increased 1.7% to $337.6 million. IoT revenue was a little more than three-quarters of total revenue and declined slightly for the year. Auto revenue increased over 10% to represent a little more than one-quarter of total revenue.
For fiscal year 2023, non-GAAP gross margin was 63.9%, up 50 basis points from 63.4% in fiscal 2022. Non-GAAP operating expenses increased 17.6% for the year, with almost one-quarter of the incremental OpEx coming from Oculii and was acquired in Q4 fiscal year 2022. Ending cash and marketable securities total $207 million, up from $171 million at the end of the prior year. For fiscal Q4, revenue was $83.3 million, in line with the midpoint of our prior guidance range, flat to the prior quarter and down 8% year-over-year. Non-GAAP gross margin for fiscal Q4 was 63.5%, consistent with our prior guidance range of 63%-64%.
Non-GAAP operating expense for the fourth quarter was $46 million, an increase of 6% from the prior quarter, at the low end of our prior guidance range of $46 million-$49 million. The lower operating expense was driven by expense management actions we took as our revenue outlook softened on customer inventory adjustments. Q4 net interest and other income was $1.8 million. Other income was higher than our original forecast, driven primarily by an investment gain. Our non-GAAP tax provision was a benefit of $200,000 or -2.3% of pre-tax income. This was $600,000 better than our original forecast, driven by the mix of pre-tax income across tax jurisdictions. We reported non-GAAP net income of $8.9 million, or $0.23 per diluted share. I'll turn to our balance sheet and cash flow.
Fiscal Q4 cash and marketable securities increased $8 million to $207 million. DSO increased slightly from 54 days to 57 days, driven by the timing of shipments, while days of inventory decreased from 124 to 116. Cash from operations was $5.1 million, and capital expenditures for tangible and intangible assets was $2 million. Free cash flow defined as cash from operations less CapEx was $3 million. We had two logistics and ODM companies represent 10% or more of our revenue in Q4. WT Microelectronics, a fulfillment partner in Taiwan that ships to multiple customers in Asia, came in at 50% of revenue. Chicony, an ODM who manufactures for multiple IoT customers, was 11% of revenue. Now I'll discuss the outlook for the first quarter of fiscal year 2024.
While customer feedback on the level of end demand remains healthy, customers are aggressively managing down their inventory. Consequently, we have experienced a more pronounced slowdown in bookings, along with customer requests to push out the timing of shipments and backlog. For fiscal Q1, we estimate our revenue to be in the range of $60 million-$64 million. We're down approximately 26% sequentially at the midpoint. We expect this to be well below the level of end consumption, supporting drawdown of customer inventory. Visibility beyond our fiscal Q1 is limited. However, we currently do not expect that future quarter revenue would need to decline below the level of our Q1 guidance for customer inventory management purposes. We expect non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 62%-64%, down approximately 50 basis points sequentially, driven by lower volumes.
We expect non-GAAP OpEx in the first quarter to be in the range of $47 million-$49 million, with the increase compared to Q4 driven by the annual reset of payroll taxes and R&D for new product development. We estimate net interest income to be approximately $750,000, our non-GAAP tax expense to be approximately $600,000, and our diluted share count to be approximately 39.9 million shares. Ambarella will be participating in Susquehanna's technology conference on March 2nd, and Morgan Stanley's TMT Conference on March 7th. Please contact us for more details. Thank you for joining our call today. With that, I'll turn the call over to the operator for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder, to ask a question, please press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star one one again. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from Joseph Moore with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Joseph Moore (Managing Director)
Great, thank you. I wonder if you could talk about what the next quarter look like, kind of by end market. You know, your revenues are down to levels that you saw when CV was a pretty small portion of revenue, so it seems like your units are down a lot. Is that true in pro surveillance and consumer surveillance? Is that true in autos? Can you just give us a sense of that end market mix?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
I think I will, I think Brian will talk about the percentage of the total revenue. I want to make some comment. First of all, I think the inventory correction impact IoT a lot more than auto. I think that our percentage of revenue tend to auto a little bit. However, our CV growth continue to maintain. Also I think inventory also impacted CV revenue. However, like you said, I think total unit number on the video processor is impacted. I think for the reason, there are multiple reasons. One, definitely because the inventory correction is more severe on the video processor side.
Also I think that, you know, the currently the two Chinese customer, you know, have reduced our offer from 3% last year to 0% this year. The unit number have just dropped. The third thing is, as you have seen that we have been really focusing on growing our CV silicon, and we haven't really invest on the low-end video processors, chip roadmap. I think that combination of three is the reason that we're seeing the video processor unit number going down.
Brian White (CFO)
Joseph, just to add, embedded in our Q1 revenue forecast is an assumption that automotive revenue stays approximately flat quarter-over-quarter, which means that all of the sequential decline in revenue is attributable to our IoT business, where we're seeing the, you know, significant inventory management actions being taken by our customers.
Joseph Moore (Managing Director)
Okay, that's helpful. Then just as a follow-up, the, as you look at that IoT business, I feel like the last couple of quarters, you felt like there was inventory reduction there. Do you still think that was the case?
You know, obviously, that's intensifying in the, in the April quarter. you know, do you think, I mean, you shipped below consumption for the last couple of quarters?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think so. For example, one of our we continue to talk to all of our customer on the IoT side, one of the IoT customer, a big one, basically telling us that they forecast their revenue will grow based on our product line. Based on the product line, they're using our current silicon, that those product line will revenue grow double-digit this year. When we look at the revenue from those product line, we are seeing a double-digit revenue decline on our side. You can see that definitely there is a mismatch between our customers growth and our revenue guidance. I think that's definitely is a sign of the inventory correction, and that will that's the reason we cut guide down the Q1.
Joseph Moore (Managing Director)
Understood. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. We have a question from Ross Seymore from Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director)
Hi, guys. Thanks for letting me ask a question. Just one question and one clarification. The question side of things, where do you think true end demand is? If you're gonna be down, I don't know, 35% sequentially on the IoT side of things, you seemingly are somewhere around $40 million±. How do you guys judge what true end demand is relative to that number?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Yeah, I think, like I said, the example I just gave, in a previous question, I think, you know, our customers seeing a double-digit growth in their product line, and we're seeing double-digit decline on the revenue for our chip side. I think there's definitely a 30%, probably even more than that, in terms of the true demand, differences.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director)
I guess as far as the end market stuff, that was helpful that you gave the color for the sequential guide with automotive being flat. The clarification part of my question, Brian, and maybe I just wrote this down wrong, but for last year and maybe the fourth quarter, if you wanna give that sequentially, can you just remind us what the percentages were? I thought you said over 75% was IoT and over 25% was automotive, and obviously those two don't make sense together.
Brian White (CFO)
Yeah, sure, Ross. No, the comment was that a little bit less than 75% was IoT and a little bit more than quarter was related to automotive. For the full year, we stated that automotive revenue was up about 10% on a year-over-year basis, while IoT declined slightly. If we look at the fourth quarter, both of those end markets were relatively flat sequentially, as was our total revenue between Q3 and Q4.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director)
Got it. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. It comes from Matt Ramsay with Cowen. Your line is open.
Lannie Trieu (VP of Research)
Hi. This is Lannie Trieu on the line with Matthew Ramsay. I had a quick question. In regards to your announced partnerships with Conti and Bosch, what's the initial reception by your OEM customers and any expectations on when you could announce CV3 win? I have a follow-up.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Yeah. I didn't hear well, but I think I understand the question. I think you're asking for our OEM customer engagement for CV3. If that's true, let me tell you, I think after the Bosch and the Conti announcement, we definitely try to engage OEM through them, but also trying to engage OEM by ourselves. In fact, now we have two weapons to engage the customer. One is using CV3 as a domain controller, also, using a 4D imaging radar as a centralized radar solution to approach OEM. We have been successfully having discussion and also potential engagement with the OEM on both fronts. You can see that the engagement is really probably, I would say, starting three months ago after we sample CV3.
I think that, and I definitely feel encouraged and very happy with the progress we made and also the number of people we're engaging. We don't have any public announcement yet.
Lannie Trieu (VP of Research)
Got it. Thanks. I know, in regards to the inventory correction, probably not looking to guide, beyond the first quarter, but any color like, what do you see in terms of the trajectory of the recovery beyond, the first quarter for the inventory correction? Thank you.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
You know, we haven't really guide beyond Q1. You know, just like we said on the script, I think that we think Q1, you know, from an inventory correction point of view, I think it's a low point. Based on the discussion we had with the customer in terms of their projected the revenue, the inventory level, and our lead time, I think that we are that's the best guess we have at this point.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. One moment for our next question. We have a question from Vivek Arya from Bank of America. Your line is open.
Vivek Arya (Managing Director)
Thanks for taking my question. Fermi, I'm curious, the announcements you made with the tier one, how exclusive are they? Like, does it prevent them from engaging with, you know, your competitors in the semiconductor side? When is the earliest that you think we will see any tangible benefits from those announcements? Is it anywhere in the next one-three years or is it like in the 2026+ kind of time frame?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Right. First of all, I don't think there is any exclusive relationship with any tier one announcement that we had. However, I'd like to point out any engagement that, for example, Continental, we want to work with our software stack. That alone is a huge commitment on both sides. Both sides need to put a significant resource. Although we don't have a legally exclusivity, but from the collaboration point of view, I think definitely those tier one has been identified by us as important partner for us, and they probably also think that CV3 can help them in their roadmap. You know, in China, for example, the Hyperview is a similar situation.
They have been using our competitor solution, but when they look at CV3, they think that's a solution they can really differentiate. The amount of that software development they need to put down to commit to the project is significant. I think although there's no exclusivity, but I think definitely it's a huge commitment for both sides.
Louis Gerhardy (VP of Corporate Development)
Hi Vivek, it's Louis. Just to add that, you know, we've said in the past that calendar year 2026 would be the first full year of revenue for CV3. That hasn't changed. We've also talked about, now that we've gotten into accounts like Conti and Bosch with CV3, we look to also promote CV2, which could potentially generate revenue earlier. We did, Fermi did announce a CV2, specifically CV25 win with Bosch Mobility, which is our first CV2 family win with Bosch Mobility.
Vivek Arya (Managing Director)
Got it. Very helpful. For my follow-up, actually, I had a two-parter. One, just a clarification with Brian White on receivables have been kind of creeping up over the last few quarters. Just wondering if there's anything more to read into that. Then the main question for me for you know, when you look at your automotive revenue, I believe you said 10% last year, was that in line or different than your expectations when the year started? Because I'm contrasting that with the automotive revenue growth that we saw from a number of other semiconductor companies that was in the range of, you know, anywhere between 20%-45% last year.
Just if you take a look back at your automotive revenue growth, last year, was it in line with what you thought or what the puts and takes were? Thank you.
Brian White (CFO)
I'll start with your question on DSO and then turn it over to Fermi. You're right. The last couple of quarters, you know, Q4, Q3, saw an uptick in DSO increase in accounts receivable, and that was really driven by the timing of revenue shipments in those quarters. Fiscal Q4 was a very back-end loaded revenue shipment quarter for us. Consequently, we had a high level of AR at the end of the quarter driving up that DSO. We had a fairly similar situation in Q3 as well. I think that corresponds to some of the softness that we've seen on the revenue side. As that plateaus and, you know, hopefully begins to lift off in the future, we should see a return to a more normal level of DSO.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
In terms of the automotive growth, I think at the beginning of the year, our plan definitely grow more than 10% at the end, that we show at the end. I think the biggest reason is that in the first half, that automotive market continued to see impact by the shortage of supply. We reported that a lot of our customer in Japan and in China too, that was impact on that. I think that's the reason we didn't deliver the 20%+ automotive growth that we planned early last year.
Vivek Arya (Managing Director)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
One moment. We have a question from Tore Svanberg with Stifel. Your line is open.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Yes. Thank you. I had a question about the announcement you had with Samsung for five nm and obviously your first CV product introduction within that five nm. Just hoping you could elaborate a little bit more on timing, you know, how much have you worked with Samsung already on this node? You know, and any more color you could offer on that announcement would be great.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
You are talking about the announcement we had with Samsung Foundry on the CV3-AD685 chip that we use Samsung Foundry for that automotive CV3 chip? Or you're talking about CV5 production?
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
No, no, I'm talking about the AD685 chip.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Yeah, yeah. What we did was we announced that, you know, we, at the CES, we announced our first CV3-AD685 chip, which is the first production-worthy SoC for CV3 family. We announced that Samsung will be the foundry for the chip. Right now, you know, this is not our first five nm Samsung Foundry chip. We already have a five nm chip called CV5 that we sample, in fact, going to production of Q3, Q4 last year, and we're ramping up the production on that. From the process node maturity, I think we're happy with it. I think that the yield is right at the level we're expecting.
Also we expect that CV3 chip, the whole family probably going to on the 5nm for the next two to three chips.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Got it. The 685, I mean, when would that be sampling?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
I think what we expect to sample the chip early, I would say early this year.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Very, very good.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
This is the second quarter this year. Sorry.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Got it. Thank you. Just as a follow-up, obviously the software stack IP is a pretty big deal. I mean, obviously, you talked about the partnerships with Bosch and Continental. You know, as you continue to develop that software stack, are you starting to see some potential revenue streams, you know, non-hardware related?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Non-auto related? Can you ask?
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Yeah, so, yeah. Like not, you know, is there a possibility you could actually just sell the software stack to some partners, you know, without selling CV3?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
I think, you know, first of all, for the 4D imaging radar, we just announced with Geely, right? That's our software running on the TI chip, which is a unique opportunity because that project started before the acquisition. After the acquisition, when we look at the combined technology between Oculii and the CV and our CV3 domain controller, we believe that centralized radar is probably more meaningful and probably provide better benefit to our customer. We are focusing on centralized radar right now. From the 4D imaging radar, I think all the software revenue will be associated with our own chip. We don't have a plan to run the software stack on other chips.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Understood. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from David Kelley with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Gavin Kennedy (Private Capital Advisory Associate)
Hi, team. This is Gavin Kennedy on for David Kelley. Nice to hear that your team achieved more than 45% overall CV mix in this fiscal year. I believe you said you expect 60% mix next year. Can you provide us with more details on the key drivers here? Related, can you remind us of your thoughts on expected ASP trajectory?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Driver for the CV growth continues because I think even our CV2 family continues to grow. For example, we are showing a lot more customers and more products, like mentioned in our script. So the CV2 family is going to continue to drive the growth of the CV revenue. On top of that, we announced CV5 will be in production, already was production later last year, and will ramp up revenue this year, so that will help on driving the CV revenue. On top of that, you know, when we are sampling CV3, then you talk about NREs and plus other CV3 related development, so development NRE. So those things combined will continue to drive the CV revenue.
On the ASP side, like we said before, we continue to expect our ASP will continue to grow in the next several years because the CV5 ASP is higher, CV3 ASP is even higher. That will continue to give us a very healthy growth on our ASP side.
Gavin Kennedy (Private Capital Advisory Associate)
Got it. Then switching gears, I think last quarter you said that you expected OpEx to ramp through fiscal year 2024, given increased spending requirements to support chip development. Is this still the case? If so, can you just walk us through your OpEx drivers here? Thank you.
Brian White (CFO)
Right. In our guidance for fiscal Q1, you see a sequential increase of about $2 million from fiscal Q4. Over half of that sequential increase is associated with the reset of payroll taxes that impacts all companies at the beginning of the new calendar year. The remainder of that increase is related to increased R&D activity associated with the build-out of the CV3 product family. We're gonna hold off on providing a full year outlook for OpEx at this point in time. I can tell you that we are very seriously managing our operating expenses in light of the soft revenue environment that we're in currently. We're doing that with a focus on preserving the timing of our new product introductions. It's of paramount importance that we get our products out on time.
In any other area where we can squeeze expense, we're taking those actions. It'll be a little bit dynamic as we move through the year and as we get a better feel for how the revenue materializes. At this point, we won't be providing guidance on OpEx beyond Q1.
Gavin Kennedy (Private Capital Advisory Associate)
Understood. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Kevin Cassidy with Rosenblatt Securities. Your line is open.
Kevin Cassidy (Senior Research Analyst)
Thanks for taking my question. Just some, if you can provide more details around the inventory correction and, you know, clearly it's in the IoT products, but how much of it is the CV products versus the human interface, you know, kind of the older devices?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
I think definitely IoT is more severely impacted than the auto industry. If you look at between a video processor and CV, I would say that the video processor is impacted more. I think that's the reason for people who have a, you know, a traditional product, they haven't updated, so that they usually feel comfortable to build a lot more inventory at, you know, last two years. That's where we're seeing that the video processor definitely has more inventory out there than the computer vision chip.
Kevin Cassidy (Senior Research Analyst)
That makes sense. Okay. Have your lead time stopped coming in or are there still improvements in ahead?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
We continue to improve. We're still looking at roughly 30 weeks on average because, you know, we have a 5 nm, 10 nm. Those are lead time is definitely longer, much longer than the 14 or 28 nm process node. Those lead times roughly at 30 weeks. On the 16 nm, as for the 14 nm and 28 nm, the lead time is a little shorter than that. We continue to see that, the improvement from the foundry side.
Kevin Cassidy (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Maybe if I could ask just one more. You're still staying above your corporate target for gross margin. It will be volumes that as they come back, that you expect gross margins to come back into that 59%-62% range?
Brian White (CFO)
Yeah, I think as we look forward to the rest of this fiscal year, we would expect gross margin to be in a similar range as we delivered last fiscal year. In Q1, we're a little bit lower. Obviously, the revenue is down substantially. We don't have a lot of fixed costs in the company, so the gross margin is not very volatile as it relates to volumes. I think we're likely to remain at the high end of that model range that you mentioned for the rest of this fiscal year.
Kevin Cassidy (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, great. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Brian Ruttenbur with Imperial Capital. Your line is open.
Brian Ruttenbur (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Yes, a couple quick questions on the security side of business. I assume the year, fiscal 2023 ended with roughly 60%-65% of total revenue from security, if you could just confirm that. Number two, if you could talk a little bit about the commercial demand, in the market, what you're seeing, and, if you're seeing any letup in that area.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
I think the security enterprise total IoT revenue is roughly 75%, maybe a little below 75%, and that including both, you know, enterprise security camera, consumer security camera, as well as other revenue we talk about. I haven't break down that. The total number of IoT is 74%. From the end demand side, like I said, you know, most of our customers, especially enterprise customer, they continue to see revenue growth potential for this year. We talk to many customers, and they still are optimistic that they are going to grow 10%-15% with the annual run rate for their product lines. I don't think that end demand, at least from based on what we have seen, is not a problem at this point.
Brian Ruttenbur (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Are you seeing any letup in demand on the IoT on the consumer side or residential side on the security cameras? We're seeing a drop in that area, but we're seeing demand on the commercial security IoT dramatically up.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
On the consumer side, you know, I think it's definitely lower, but it's not. The drop doesn't explain what we are seeing from our customers' drop of demand. Drop of the PO to us. I really think that on the consumer side, it's a little weaker than the enterprise side. Like I say, enterprise side, we haven't seen any drop at all.
Brian Ruttenbur (Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company. Your line is open.
Quinn Bolton (Senior Analyst)
Hey, guys. I just want to come back, I guess, to Ross's question about how much you're under shipping. Correct me, I think you said you thought you might be under shipping by as much as 30%, which would sort of imply, you know, revenue could be, you know, well more than $10 million higher, or consumption well more than $10 million higher than where you're guiding for fiscal Q1. I just want to make sure that I've got those numbers right.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
The number is right, but that's for one customer. We cannot generalize that comment because not a lot of customer telling us the, where the inventory is or where their projected growth is. This one big customer, we have a lot of visibility, so I think that from that one data point, we think that 30% is what we are looking at.
Quinn Bolton (Senior Analyst)
Got it. That's one customer specifically. You don't necessarily want to generalize that.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Correct.
Quinn Bolton (Senior Analyst)
Got it. Okay. You know, longer term, obviously, I think a lot of the excitement around the story is around the automotive side. I'm just wondering, you only update your auto pipeline once a year. Are there any other milestones you think investors can track on your, you know, as you make progress to securing the CV3 design wins with, either Continental or Bosch or OEMs directly?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Well, I think, any announcements, customers need to get our customer's approval. We probably need to think about whether we want to give people hints about design without mentioning names. That's definitely a decision we need to make. We haven't done that for throughout the whole 10 years of, as a public company, so we need to think about it. I think that's why I think tracking our announcement and tracking our annual formal updates is probably the best way at this point.
Quinn Bolton (Senior Analyst)
Got it. Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our last question comes from Richard Shannon with Craig-Hallum. Your line is open.
Richard Shannon (Senior Research Analyst)
Well, thanks, guys, for taking my questions. I want to ask one kind of a two-parter here on ASPs and growth here. I can't remember if you mentioned what the growth number was for fiscal 2023. If you have that one, I'd love to hear it. Then, kind of responding to your response and or coming back in response to another question here about how to think about it for this year, you just talked about growth. Can we think about an ASP growth in percentage terms similar to last year? How should we characterize that?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
I think that, two years ago, our ASP probably roughly around $10, and this year we're above $10 by a healthy margin. I think that growth, like I said, will continue. I think this year we're gonna see similar growth rate on the ASP side.
Richard Shannon (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. That's helpful.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Another part of the question?
Richard Shannon (Senior Research Analyst)
No, I think you covered it, at least.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Okay.
Richard Shannon (Senior Research Analyst)
Sounds like. Yeah, I think it's probably enough detail for there. Second question here. As we, as we try to model this, you know, CV being 60% of sales in this current fiscal year up from 45%, which is pretty significant growth, I've been trying to model this between IoT and automotive. Could we see CV be a majority of your IoT business or a clear majority of your business this year? It seems like it would have to be?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Well, I think that's the right assumption. I think among, you know, we talk about we ship 13 million CV SoCs cumulatively right now, and there's a very healthy portion of that is automotive. I think that's one part of the answer. The other part of the answer is yes. I think that particularly on the enterprise security camera side, we definitely expect that a majority of our shipment will be on the revenue side, a majority of our enterprise revenue will be based on CV.
Richard Shannon (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, perfect. That's all for me.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Bye.
Richard Shannon (Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, great.
Operator (participant)
There are no other questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the conference back to Dr. Fermi Wang for closing remarks.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Yeah, I just want to thank everybody to attend today's meeting. I will talk to you next time. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.