Ambarella - Q4 2024
February 27, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Welcome to Ambarella's fourth quarter and fiscal year 2024 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are on a listen-only mode. After the speaker's presentation, there will be a question-and-answer session. To ask a question during the session, you will need to press star one one on your telephone. You will then hear an automatic message advising your hand is raised. Please note that today's conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to your speaker host, Louis Gerhardy, VP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Louis Gerhardy (VP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations)
Thank you, Livia, and good afternoon, and thank you for joining our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2024 financial results conference call. On the call with me today is Dr. Fermi Wang, President and CEO, and John Young, CFO. The primary purpose of today's call is to provide you with information regarding the results for our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2024. The discussion today and the responses to your questions will contain forward-looking statements regarding our projected financial results, financial prospects, market growth, and demand for our solutions, among other things. These statements are based on currently available information and subject to risks, uncertainties and assumptions. Should any of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or should our assumptions prove to be incorrect, our actual results could differ materially from these forward-looking statements. We are under no obligation to update these statements.
These risks, uncertainties, and assumptions, as well as other information on potential risk factors that could affect our financial results, are more fully described in the documents we file with the SEC. Access to our fourth quarter and full year fiscal 2024 results, press release, transcripts, historical results, SEC filings, and a replay of today's call can be found on the investor relations page of our website. The content of today's call, as well as the materials posted on our website, are Ambarella's property and cannot be reproduced or transcribed without our prior written consent. Fermi will now provide a business update for the quarter. John will review the financial results and outlook, and then we'll be all available for your questions. Fermi?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Thank you, Louis, and good afternoon. Thank you for joining our call today. In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2024, our revenue increased about 2% sequentially, and we slightly exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range. Thanks to the early actions we took to help our customer navigate their excess inventory, our business continued to stabilize and is beginning to recover. For the full fiscal year 2024, our revenue declined 32.9% year-over-year, as our customers digested inventory resulting from the industry-wide semiconductor cyclical downturn. Looking ahead to fiscal year 2025, we continue to expect both our automotive and IoT business to grow as the cyclical challenges wane and the secular growth of our Edge AI strategy emerges.
Our customers currently have a cumulative install base of more than 20 million AI inference SoCs, all from our 10 nanometer CV2 family and the 5 nanometer CV5. This is based on approximately 280 customer products that have reached production on a cumulative basis. The CV2 family is expected to continue to be the key driver of our revenue growth in fiscal year 2025. Our AI inference business, all in Edge applications, represented approximately 60% of total fiscal 2024 revenue and was the key factor in the meaningful percentage year-over-year increase in our blended ASP. The trend to a richer mix of AI revenue and higher average selling price is expected to continue, in particular, as the CV3 SoC family enters production. At this time, virtually all of our customers' new design activity involves our AI inference processors.
In fact, this was the first year at the CES, where all of our, our SoC demos, more than 30, were based on our AI inference products. Fiscal 2024 was certainly challenging for most of the industry. However, there were key industry developments and the company's specific achievements that we believe leave us very well positioned for growth as the market recovery plays out. For the industry, in the past, the AI process opportunity had primarily been represented by training GPUs in server located in data centers, and this is a market that we do not serve. However, in the last year, the important role and opportunity for inference processors, in particular at edge, has become better understood, and this is exactly where we have been focused on. Internally, we achieved four key milestones during the last year.
First, we have now shipped more than 500,000 units of our first 5 nanometer SoC, CV5, and we expect our shipments in fiscal year 2025 to approximately double. Most of CV5 volume is currently in our IoT business, although we expect an automotive OEM to start production in the second half of the year. The fact we have already achieved high volume mass production at the 5 nanometer helps pave the way for our other 5 nanometer SoC, such as the CV3 family. Second, the automotive market will assemble both the high-end production version of our 5 nanometer CV3, as well as a 5-nanometer version for China. At the high end, we sample CV3-AD685, targeting L3 and above autonomy. And this central domain controller is currently in evaluation at multiple OEMs and Tier 1s globally.
So far, we are finding success in L3 and above commercial vehicles. For the basic highway L2+ auxiliary in China, we introduced a CV72AQ, and we have numerous Tier 1 design wins and OEM discussions underway. Third, we introduced our generative AI, Gen AI strategy for the age of the network, and we are sampling our 5-nanometer N1 processor, targeting edge applications, ranging from IoT devices to edge servers. Fourth, we'll continue to build out the CV3 automotive platform to offer our Tier 1 and OEM customers turnkey options with our software stack and our centrally processed HD radar algorithms. We started the new year at the Consumer Electronics Show, CES, where we hosted over 200 customer meetings and made a number of significant announcement for automotive, Gen AI, and our new Cooper development platform.
We were pleased to receive a CES Innovation Award for the second year in a row, this time for our centralized radar processing architecture. In December, we unveiled our latest software stack for Level 2 Plus and higher autonomous driving applications. This software is optimized and can scale across our entire CV3 processor family, enabling OEM to get to market faster and reduce development costs. The new software stack, including the perception, fusion, and planning layers, is primarily deeper learning-based, which allows software development to scale more easily, resulting in a more accurate solution. Finally, most important, we rely on high-resolution camera and the radar perception data to create a real-time map inside the vehicle. And for this reason, we eliminate the use of a stored HD maps that may contain stale data, which result in improved results and a reduced cost for OEM.
If needed, the software stack is available in modules and can be combined with an OEM's own software intellectual property. During the CES show, we demonstrated a stack running on a single CV3 automotive AI domain processor in our own autonomous vehicle, successfully completing over 150 autonomous drive rides. The demonstration integrated our Oculii radar algorithm for the first time. We also announced the expansion of CV3 processor family with the addition of our CV3-AD635 and the CV3-AD655 SoCs. The new CV3-AD635 supports a sensing suite that includes multiple cameras and radars to enable mainstream Level 2 Plus feature set, such as highway autopilot and automated parking. In addition to meeting the GSR2 and NCAP standards. Additionally, the CV3-AD655 enables advanced Level 2 Plus with urban autopilot, as well as the support for additional cameras, radars, and other sensors.
With the previously announced flagship CV3-AD685 SoC, along with the China-focused CV72AQ SoC, the CV3 family of four processors now covers the full range of AD and ADAS solutions, from mainstream to premium passenger vehicles. The new CV3-AD SoCs were endorsed by our partner, Continental. Kodiak Robotics, a leading autonomous vehicle company focused on trucking and the defense auto, announced that it had selected our CV3-AD685 AI domain controller for its next-generation autonomous vehicles. In IoT markets, during CES, we announced we are bringing Gen AI capabilities to the edge through the introduction of our N1 processor for on-premises applications. This SoC supports up to 34 billion parameters, multimodal large language models, LLMs, with low power consumption, enabling Gen AI for edge applications. We demonstrated multimodal LLM running on the new N1 processor at a fraction of the power per inference of leading GPU solutions.
Ambarella aims to bring Gen AI to a wide range of edge applications, including video security, robotics, and industrial applications. Quanta Computer announced that it was partnering with Ambarella to develop products based on our CV3-AD685, CV72, a new N1 processor to address cutting-edge AI devices. This offering addresses the growing market demand for diverse range of neural network and LLMs, and the AI-empowered businesses across sectors, including autonomous vehicle, smart surveillance, robotics, and healthcare. Quanta demonstrated PCIe add-in cards based on our N1, as well as showing automotive ECUs based on CV3-AD685. We also introduced and demonstrated our new Cooper Developer Platform. Cooper offers seamless integration of software, hardware, state-of-the-art, fine-tuned AI models, and the services that provide universal support of Ambarella's entire portfolio of AI SoCs. We have now successfully deployed Cooper to some of our IoT customers worldwide.
I will now quickly highlight some of the customer products announcement made during the last quarter. In the Chinese automotive market, we continue to expand our position in this important market. During the quarter, GAC Motor announced Aion S Max passenger car with combination driver monitoring and in-cabin sensing based on our CV25AQ automotive AI vision processor. GAC also introduced its Trumpchi M8 passenger car with driver monitoring and the multi-channel occupancy monitoring, also based on our CV25AQ. And in January, XPeng unveiled its X9 minivan, including an electronic mirror system based on our A12 automotive SoC. And in the enterprise IoT market, Korean market leader Hanwha Vision introduced multiple models based on AI vision SoC, including 4K and the four-channel multi-directional cameras based on our CV2 SoCs, and the AI thermal camera based on our CV22 SoCs.
While Korean camera supplier IDIS introduced a 2-megapixel voice over IP video intercom based on our CV28 SoC. Taiwan-based VIVOTEK also introduces a new 87-V3 family IP camera based on our CV22 AI SoCs, and featuring fixed dome and bullet models with advanced AI capabilities. In the home monitoring market, Canadian service provider Telus announced its HomeView doorbell camera based on our CV20AM AI SoC, and featuring advanced AI detection. In summary, looking forward, our key objective is to restore revenue growth and profitability while continuing to drive our strategic R&D priorities for AI inference processor opportunities at the edge. To achieve this goal, we are highly focused on commercialization of the technology and products we have developed, and in particular, converting the multiple RFIs and RFQs we are currently working on for CV2 and CV3 into awarded business.
Furthermore, returning our IoT business to its positive secular growth trajectory is very important, and this includes our early business development of new Gen AI and products. In conclusion, we have not been distracted by the prolonged industry-wide cyclical downturn, and we see the secular trends we address: safety, security, and automation remaining very strong. The increased market attention on inference processing, in particular at the edge, is aligned with where we have been investing. In the new year, we are very excited about the opportunities we are working on, and we look forward to move more business into win column, and I'm excited about what we will achieve in the years ahead. With that, John will now discuss the Q4 and the full year fiscal year 2024 results and outlook in more detail.
John Young (VP of Finance)
Thank you, Fermi. Before I begin, I would like to say that I'm honored to assume the CFO role. I've been working with the team for 7 years, and I'm very excited to help the company as it pursues growth in its target markets. I'll now review the financial highlights for the fourth quarter and full fiscal year 2024, ending January 31, 2024. I will also provide a financial outlook for our first quarter of fiscal year 2025, ending April 30, 2024. I will be discussing non-GAAP results and ask that you refer to today's press release for a detailed reconciliation of GAAP to non-GAAP results. For non-GAAP reporting, we have eliminated stock-based compensation expense, along with acquisition-related and restructuring costs, adjusted for the impact of taxes.
Fiscal year 2024 revenue decreased 32.9% to $226.5 million. IoT revenue was about two-thirds of the total revenue and declined about 40% for the year. Auto revenue represented the balance of revenue and declined about 14% for the year. From a product point of view, a large majority of our fiscal 2024 revenue decline was from our human viewing video processor SoCs. For fiscal year 2024, non-GAAP gross margin was 63.3% versus 63.9% in fiscal 2023. Non-GAAP operating expense increased 3.9% for the year versus 17.6% in the prior year. Ending cash and marketable securities totaled $219.9 million, up from $206.9 million at the end of the prior year.
For fiscal Q4, revenue was $51.6 million, slightly above the midpoint of our prior guidance range, up 2% from the prior quarter and down 38% year-over-year. Non-GAAP gross margin for fiscal Q4 was 62.5%, in line with our prior guidance range. Non-GAAP operating expense was $44.1 million, approximately flat with the prior quarter, and below our prior guidance range of $45-$48 million, driven by continued expense management and the timing of spending between quarters. We remain on track to our internal product development milestones. Q4 net interest and other income was $2.1 million. Q4 non-GAAP tax provision was approximately $119,000. In fiscal Q4, we recorded a one-time GAAP non-cash discrete tax charge of $22.7 million, establishing a valuation allowance on certain U.S. deferred tax assets that were deemed more likely than not to be unrealizable in the foreseeable future.
This valuation allowance was excluded from fiscal Q4 non-GAAP tax provision, consistent with our historical practice for changes to tax valuation allowances. This adjustment is a non-cash tax charge required by GAAP, based on the proportion of taxable income in the United States. We reported a non-GAAP net loss of $9.8 million, or a $0.24 loss per diluted share. Now I'll turn to our balance sheet and cash flow. Fiscal Q4 cash and marketable securities decreased $2.4 million from the prior quarter to $219.9 million.
Receivables days of sales outstanding increased from 42 days in the prior quarter to 44 days, while days of inventory decreased from 145 to 131 days. Inventory dollars declined 6% sequentially and declined 28% from a year ago. Operating cash outflow was $4 million for the quarter, and for the full year, we generated operating cash inflow of $19 million. Capital expenditures for tangible and intangible assets were $1.9 million for the quarter and $12 million for the year. We had 2 logistics and ODM companies representing 10% or more of our revenue in Q4. WT Microelectronics, a fulfillment partner in Taiwan that ships to multiple customers in Asia, came in at 55% of revenue for the fourth quarter and 53% for the full fiscal year 2024.
Chicony, an ODM who manufactures for multiple end customers, was 14% of revenue for both the quarter and the full fiscal year, 2024. I'll now discuss the outlook for the first quarter of fiscal year 2025. Our early actions during the cyclical downturn in the semiconductor industry have helped our customers navigate their high inventory balances, and these actions are now enabling our business to stabilize and begin to recover. For fiscal Q1, we estimate our total revenue will be in the range of $52 million-$56 million. We expect sequential growth in both IoT and auto. We expect fiscal Q1 non-GAAP gross margin to be in the range of 61.5%-63%.
We expect non-GAAP OpEx in the first quarter to be in the range of $46 million-$49 million, with the increase compared to Q4, driven by new product development costs and employee-related expenses, which we were able to delay in previous quarters. We estimate net interest income to be approximately $1.5 million, our non-GAAP tax expense to be approximately $500,000, and our diluted share count to be approximately 40.8 million shares. Ambarella will be participating in a fireside chat and hosting one-on-one and group meetings on February 29 in New York City at Susquehanna's Technology Conference. We will also be participating in Morgan Stanley's TMT conference in San Francisco on Monday, March 4. On March 18, we will participate in the Roth Conference in Southern California. We hope to see you at one of these events. Please contact us for more details.
Thank you for joining our call today, and with that, I will turn the call over to the operator for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, you will need to press star one one on your telephone and wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, simply press star one one again. In the consideration of time, please limit yourself to one question and one follow-up. Please stand by while we compile the attendee roster. Our first question coming from the line of Quinn Bolton from Needham, your line is open.
Speaker 10
Hey, this is Nick Doyle. I'm for Quinn Bolton. Thank you for taking my questions. So you said you were seeing project delays from Tier 1s and OEMs, as well as volume reductions in planned projects, which you called out more of an inventory issue. How's that inventory improvement or I should say, is that inventory improvement progressing ahead of where you thought it would? And if so, are you starting to get the sense that these projects will resume soon? And then I had a follow-up.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
You are referring to what we said in a quarter before?
Speaker 10
Uh, yes.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
So, I think in November, when we provide, I think early December, when we provide our final guidance for this year, I think we talk about there's a project got pushed out and OEM from OEM and Tier 1s, also some decision for a new project also got delayed. And also there are some inventory. I think what we are seeing is still consistent with what we have said in December last year. I think there's no new updates. I don't think we haven't seen new development in terms of a further project got delayed or pushed out.
Speaker 10
Okay. So on the auto side, regarding inventory, you aren't seeing any improvements?
John Young (VP of Finance)
We haven't seen any improvement, but we are not saying there's it getting worse.
Speaker 10
Okay, thanks. And then for my follow-up: So in the past, you talked about how the first CV3 revenue would come from China. I believe in your opening remarks, I heard you say you're engaged in discussion with multiple Tier 1s and already have multiple design wins on the way. If that's the case, when do you think you'll see first revenue from those wins? And then, maybe just an update on the demand environment in China.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Right. So for CV72AQ, we expected that the first revenue from those design win would be in calendar year 2026, that we have talked about this in a previous call. But basically, that was a low-end. CV72AQ is basically a low end of CV3 family and addressing first level of level 2+, for example, for the ADAS plus smart parking. So that's the low market in China, and we're working on. We already have design with Tier 1 and working with OEM design wins right now.
So, but I think for the market development point of view, I think China continue to be one of the focus area that we are in, because I think that, I think everybody see the EV development in China, and we believe autonomous driving also will happen in China faster than other area. So that's definitely, we believe we can monetize our CV3 technology in China faster than any other areas.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Christopher Rolland with Susquehanna. Your line is open.
Christopher Rolland (Senior Equity Analyst)
Hi, thanks for the question. Just about your N1 product, maybe any more thoughts on how large this could be for you guys? Have you considered, or has anyone talked about combining multiple chips into a server or appliance? And then lastly, does this meet the Chinese compute restrictions for import as well? Thanks.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Right. So first of all, in terms of N1, we definitely believe that, first of all, we can, technically, we can put multiple chip together, is, and to serve a high-end solution, but so far, we believe a single chip solution at the edge will meet a lot demands for a lot of our current customer, maybe even new customers. But I do see a point, if we want to go to the edge server side, that, with multiple chip, will provide a better solution. Definitely, that's the direction we are looking at. The current solution that, for example, we demo with our partners building PCIe card today, is a single chip solution, but it can be multiple chip in the future.
In terms of the American regulation, I think N1, because our architecture, although we can provide a high performance at very low power consumption, but our total TOPS, so TOPS number, as well as the bandwidth, is much lower than our competition. And that's our strength, our architecture, that we can use smaller TOPS number and lower bandwidth to achieve a similar or higher performance.
Christopher Rolland (Senior Equity Analyst)
Great. Thank you.
John Young (VP of Finance)
And Chris, in terms of the market size, we've had many discussions, you know, at CES and afterwards with customers, you know, on our Gen AI and LLM, you know, products, and we see really good feedback about what these products can do. And many customers, we found out, just were not aware that, you know, Gen AI models like, you know, LLaVA, could run so efficiently, you know, on a sub-50-watt SoC. And so this has triggered a lot of discussions with our customers and how they're gonna use the product. And we're gonna wait to put some market sizing figures out until we're a little bit farther down that process, but the feedback's really good, especially, you know, doing this on a sub-50-watt SoC.
Christopher Rolland (Senior Equity Analyst)
Great.
Louis Gerhardy (VP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations)
You have a follow-up, Chris? Yeah.
Christopher Rolland (Senior Equity Analyst)
Yeah. Maybe around the kinda Edge AI and camera opportunity, maybe if you could describe that. I mean, there's so much focus on auto, but next gen, like security cameras with all this AI functionality, like, what are growth rates for that market? Do you have now visibility into a funnel to kind of refresh that and to reinvigorate that market? And, and, and what kind of growth could we be talking for kind of that edge market as well, with your products? Thanks.
Louis Gerhardy (VP of Corporate Development and Investor Relations)
Well, for our SAM, we haven't updated it for gen AI, you know, kind of like the prior discussion, so we're still sizing that up. But the prior SAM CAGR, if you will, that we talked about, was in the low teens range, you know, thinking of a five-year SAM CAGR for that market. But that does not include the gen AI products, and we're gonna take a little bit longer to put those numbers in. In terms of kind of the insight into building momentum in this market and any sort of funnel, I'll pass that off to Fermi.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Yeah. In fact, you know, although we talk a lot about auto, because that's a huge opportunity, but we never underestimate the importance of, you know, security camera market for us. This is really a big portion of our revenue, and we continue to believe that Edge AI application for security camera is important for us, and we continue to develop new platform. For example, we announced the CV72, and we'll announce new chips for this market in the near future. So I think we believe that AI performance demand in security camera will continue to grow, and we want to be continue to be the player and the dominant player on the mainstream high-end product line.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question coming from the lineup, Matt Ramsay with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Matthew Ramsay (Managing Director)
Good afternoon, guys. Thank you. I guess, Fermi, I wanted to follow up with you on some of the initial feedback on the N1 from an inference perspective. It's not a surprise to me, given that the engineering and architecture team, you're getting good feedback on low power inference. I guess my question is, as you get that good feedback, and you're interacting with customers that could potentially ramp this product over time, given kind of where the P&L is for you guys right now during the correction, what's the business model over the next 12-18 months to start to really build a business around this and get something that could ramp at scale, given the software investments that you need, etc?
Are customers willing, and are you willing to do sort of NRE payment arrangements? Are people willing to invest alongside you on software? I'm just trying to figure out, I can see big potential here, but there's also some limitations on capital, given where the business is. And I'm trying to understand what the discussions are to get you from point A to point B, if this is gonna be a big product.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Right. So I think you make a good point. I think for the N1 development, it's going to be significant for us. But that's why we are open for any kind of business model, including from partnership to NRE numbers. I think with N1, we only can address some of the custom, particularly our existing customer demand, and also on the software. In fact, you know, we can demo and show you that our investment on the software and tools and the silicon can be leveraged for our first generation chip. So from that point of view, I think our majority of our investment for N1 is done. So the real question is, what's our roadmap moving forward?
And we, for example, if we look at the Cooper development, although we define Cooper for other purpose, but definitely directly apply to our N1 development. So let's talk about for our LLM or GenAI roadmap. I think that's where the difficulty is, right? I think it's from the PR point of view, if we want to do this, we need to continue to invest in R&D for new chips and maybe even new software. So from that point of view, I agree with you that we have to look at all the possible scenario, including a partnership as well as an NRE, so for the so some of the NRE payment for us to pay for the current cost.
But I think, you know, based on the feedback, it's become very clear that it's not. LLM is not only for the data center. LLM will penetrate to the edge device and our current existing customer and future customer all want LLM as a part of the roadmap. So I think that we need to be flexible to develop a roadmap for our customer, and we have to figure that out sometime this year.
Matthew Ramsay (Managing Director)
Yeah. Thank you for all the thoughts there, Fermi. I guess as my follow-up question, where the revenue levels are right now, and you guys have been consistent the last couple of quarters, that you're working with the customer base to burn through inventory that they had built. And you're clearly under shipping and sell through by a pretty significant margin to do that. So, I mean, I asked this last quarter, and maybe it was too early to ask, but now that we've had three more months, do you have a feel now as to what the steady state sell-through revenue level of the business is currently, just with the designs you've won, particularly in the security camera business?
What is, what's sell-through, and what's the market size right now after we've gone way up and then way down on the inventory correction? What's kind of the steady state sell-through that you're under shipping to burn through inventory? Do you have an estimate for that? Thanks.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Yeah. So we are trying very hard to understand numbers. So let me give you my thoughts. I think, you know, when I look at the number, that at peak, we shipped probably $92 million a quarter. At the bottom, we ship roughly $50 million. And when we look at all of the statistics and the numbers, the model we built, we feel the midpoint of those two numbers is probably a comfortable level for us, and we are definitely working hard to go to that, to reach that level. So I think roughly in the $70 million range is probably the number we are shooting for, when everything gets equalized.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question coming from the lineup, Tore Svanberg with Stifel. Your line is open.
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Yes, thank you. My first question, for me, so you talked about fiscal 2025. You expect to see growth in both auto and IoT. I was just hoping you could give us a little bit more, sort of the puts and takes on how you think the year to progress. Obviously, you know, there's still probably some lingering inventory, especially on the auto side. But, yeah, any more color you can give us as far as the growth you're expecting in both segments, this year?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
you are talking about CV5 or-
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Yeah, overall.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Overall-
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
No, I'm talking about both.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
You mentioned you expect both segments to grow this year, so if you could just...
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
Yes
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
... give a little bit more so the, the dynamic. Yeah. Right. So I think for the, let's talk about IoT first. I think for IoT, it's pretty clear that, you know, with the CV2 product line, that we've been, you know, growing CV revenue from close to 50%-60% last year, and we're going, we believe that the momentum of CV2 family will continue, particularly after the inventory problem is behind us. So I think at that point, I think CV2 family will drive the growth for us. But more importantly, I think in our, in my, in the script, we talk about CV5 will start ramping. Last year, we did 500,000 units, and this year we're probably going to double it. And that will, also, if you consider ASP, that could be meaningful growth for us.
So I think that's square on the IoT side. On the automotive side, I definitely think that you know, first of all, we continue to announce the CV2 design win in ADAS, in the OMS, CMS, on the electronic mirror and the recorders. Those continue to be a big portion of our revenue, but also we are announcing some partnership with CV3 early customer that we have started delivering samples and also partnership with OEMs. That will definitely play a role in our CV3 revenue, our automotive revenues in there.
So I think overall, although that automotive market continue to be weak, based on the feedback from the market, but I still believe that we are a small player in the automotive space, and we are trying to be big one. Throughout the process, we're looking at more along the line, our growth with the current design wins. So I think that's how we feel comfortable that automotive will also have growth this year.
John Young (VP of Finance)
Yeah, Tore, from a product point of view, in fiscal 2025, you know, our AI inference products, well, you know, it's almost all CV2, will be more than 100% of our growth. That means the video processor business will, you know, which was down substantially, as John mentioned, in fiscal 2024, it dropped about $80 million. That rate of decline in video processors will begin to really taper off in fiscal 2025. Did you have a follow-up, Tore?
Tore Svanberg (Managing Director)
That's great. Yeah, that was very helpful. As my follow-up, I was pretty impressed with the new Cooper development platform, when I saw your samples at CES. I was just wondering, you know, how that development platform is helping you secure, you know, more business activity? Because it does seem like it was an important piece of the pie that was missing, but obviously now that you have it, readily available.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
In fact, all our existing customers are eager to get their hands on the Cooper. Tells me a lot about how much they like this development, because now it's become very easy for them to port software through to different Ambarella platforms, different silicon chips. And I think for the existing customers, that will make their development work even more comfortable and faster, so it will help us to keep those existing customers.
But also for the new customer, even in the LLM part, I think that we can provide an environment for customer quickly can convert their software algorithm to run on our chip, is important for our design wins.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Ross Seymore with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director)
Hi, guys. Thanks for asking the question. When I think about the ASPs that you mentioned for going from CV2 to CV5 or even backwards looking to the CV2 itself, can you just walk us through again, kind of, orders of magnitude or what pricing ranges? How much for ASP is a tailwind in calendar year 2024, and, and what do you expect them to be in calendar 2025, or-
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Right.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director)
Fiscal.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
First of all, right. For CV2 family, I think we talk about the price can be anywhere from the high single digit to the probably $30 range, and that's the average ASP, probably high teens. That's the CV2 family. CV5, we're talking about anywhere from the you know low 30s to a high 40s, in that range. And that's with our run rate, we think that we can maintain very healthy not only ASP, but also gross margin in that product line. CV5, in fact, we have CV72 that we mentioned. The price range is similar to CV5, but for AIoT, it's a different product line.
So I think, and then we talk about CV3, the ASP is anywhere from the $40 to $400, from CV72 to a CV3-685. So that just give you an idea how ASP changes.
Ross Seymore (Managing Director)
Great. Thanks for that detail for me. And then I guess you talked about the year and growing in both sides of the business. Obviously, we have the first quarter guidance and you talked about a little bit of the trajectory to in a prior question on both your two sides of your business. But if we think about the, kind of, the second half versus the first half, it seems like you need some relatively sizable sequential increases on a percentage basis to get to that sort of number. Do you think you will be well within those, kind of, those average of roughly $70 million true sell-through numbers? And if so, is that kind of a second half dynamic? And I guess is that more just about shipping to demand, so the inventory headwinds abate, or is it about new products ramping?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Right. First of all, we didn't guide any quarter to be $70 million, you know, in our guidance. We talk about, we believe that we're gonna have growth this year and also believe that, you know, our Q1 guidance. But overall, I think, you know, when I look at, you know, the number that Street's predicting, I think it's, you know, reasonable, and also that based on what we have seen with our customer demands and as well as our booking, I feel comfortable with the current Q1, Q2 guidance. Of course, Q3, Q4, we haven't seen enough booking, but, you know, however, the momentum is there.
So I think, you know, I'm comfortable that we're going to grow, and but in terms of our quarter-to-quarter growth, we haven't provided any guidance on that yet.
John Young (VP of Finance)
Yeah, and Ross, just to follow up on the ASP question. Our ASP in fiscal 2024 grew about 15% year-over-year, and looking into the next year, it really depends, you know, on the mix of video processor versus CV. But even within the CV2 family, you know, the ratio of CV5s to some of the lower-end CV2s, then, of course, we won't have CV3 revenue contributing in fiscal 2025. So should be some increase, but it's just hard to say how much now. Livia, we can move on to the next question.
Operator (participant)
Certainly. Our next question coming from the line of Kevin Cassidy with Rosenblatt Securities. Your line is open.
Kevin Cassidy (Managing Director)
Yes, thanks for taking my question, and congratulations on the strong results. Just on your N1, as you're talking to customers about it, what is the competitive landscape? What are some of the alternative designs that they're looking at, and you know, I guess, is the GPU still being considered even as a edge processor?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Well, some low-end GPU being considered, but as an edge processor, you really need a SoC with very low power consumption. With that, GPU is much less considered. However, I do believe that Qualcomm definitely have an ambition to come to this market. And when we compare to them, you know, just like when we compare to them in the automotive space, I think we can deliver higher performance at lower power consumption. That's consistent to be the case. I do believe we are looking at very similar competitors like our automotive market.
Kevin Cassidy (Managing Director)
Great. Thanks. And, you know, it seems to me you're getting a lot of leverage out of the five-nanometer process. You've got lots of parts, say, well, price performance ranges with this five nanometer. Is there anything in your roadmap looking to go below five nanometer now?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Yes, we have to. I think it is. There's no chance we'll stay at 5 nanometer for long. But however, I think it's really driven by 2 things. One is whether we can justify the cost, and also whether the performance requirement. But I definitely believe that you will start hearing us talk about, you know, next generation of process selections, in the near future.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. As a reminder, ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star one, one. Our next question coming from the line of Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Joseph Moore (Analyst)
Great. Thank you. Fermi, you had alluded to some OEM wins for CV5 that start to ramp in the second half of the year. Can you talk about what applications you're addressing there?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
It's an EV truck in Western space. We definitely have been working on this case for several years, and the customer doesn't allow us to talk about it yet, just yet. But I think that since they are close to announcing their product, and I feel that we should—we feel comfortable to share this news, but not to mention the customer names.
Joseph Moore (Analyst)
Great. Thank you for that. And then I guess, as far as the N1 product goes, you guys have kind of always shied away from doing anything in a phone, because you don't want to become a feature and a chipset. But, you know, obviously, a lot of the potential large language model inference could be in devices like phones. So can you just talk about, you know, what... Are there opportunities around that to do co-processors or, you know, where do you kind of draw the line at your participation?
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Right. Since both Qualcomm and NVIDIA, sorry, Qualcomm and the MediaTek are very eager to coming to introducing products in the phone space for LLM, I feel that our opportunity is limited. Because, you know, my idea is that even LLM on the phone, because you have 5G connectivity, you might be able to use some LLM at edge, but still leverage the 5G, so you can connect it to the cloud to run, but most of the LLM functions at, on the, on the server side. So with that, cell phone become of a limited opportunity for us, not only because Qualcomm and MediaTek has a advantage in terms of a market share there, but also the usage model is really not purely edge.
It's a combination of edge and the cloud. So my feeling is, we are going to look at pure edge devices that's focusing on, you know, the battery sensitive and also the latency sensitive applications, just like what we had before.
Joseph Moore (Analyst)
Great. Thank you very much.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. I'm showing no further questions in the queue at this time. I will now turn the call back over to Dr. Fermi Wang for any closing remarks.
Fermi Wang (President and CEO)
Yeah. I want to thank all of you for joining us today, and looking forward to talk to you in a different conference or next time. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes our conference for today. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.