AI
AMBARELLA INC (AMBA)·Q1 2026 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 FY26 revenue of $85.9M, up 57.6% YoY and above S&P Global consensus; non-GAAP EPS of $0.07 beat Street, while GAAP EPS was a loss of $0.58 . Actuals vs estimates: revenue $85.9M vs $84.0M consensus; EPS $0.07 vs $0.038 consensus (12 estimates)*. The beat was driven by continued strength in edge AI and favorable product mix .
- Non-GAAP gross margin was 62.0% (slightly down YoY) and Q2 FY26 guidance: revenue $86–$94M, non-GAAP GM 60.5–62.0%, OpEx $52.5–$55.5M .
- Management increased FY26 revenue growth guidance to 19–25% in Q1 (approx. $348M midpoint) and subsequently to 31–35% in Q2 (approx. $379M midpoint), citing strong edge AI breadth across IoT, drones, and emerging edge infrastructure .
- Edge AI revenue represented >75% of Q1 revenue (record fourth consecutive quarter), with IoT up mid-single digits sequentially and automotive down low-single digits; ASPs are rising as higher-value 5nm products ramp .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Record edge AI momentum: “fourth consecutive quarter of record AI revenue” and results in the upper half of guidance; FY26 growth guide raised to 19–25% in Q1 and later to 31–35% in Q2 .
- Mix/ASPs: Non-GAAP GM 62% slightly above midpoint on favorable product mix; ASP increases from CV5/CV7 families contributed to growth .
- Cash and liquidity: Cash and marketable securities rose to $259.4M in Q1; operating cash inflow was $14.8M; free cash flow $10.2M .
What Went Wrong
- GAAP profitability: GAAP net loss of $24.3M (–$0.58 diluted EPS); non-GAAP GM and margins still mixed as higher OpEx for new product development continues .
- GM pressure: Non-GAAP gross margin declined YoY (62.0% vs 63.4% prior-year), reflecting product/customer mix normalization as advanced products scale .
- Macro/tariff uncertainty and auto softness: Auto declined low-single digits sequentially; management maintained conservatism for H2 amid geopolitical/tariff uncertainties and potential indirect impacts on customer supply chains .
Financial Results
Estimates comparison (S&P Global):
Segment/End-market mix (qualitative):
KPIs:
Note: Items marked with an asterisk (*) are values retrieved from S&P Global.
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “As the established edge AI market leader, we achieved our fourth consecutive quarter of record AI revenue... We are increasing our fiscal 2026 revenue growth guidance to 19% to 25%... approximately $348 million at the mid-point” .
- “Our SAM is comprised of more than 20 different automotive and IoT HAI applications… reaching almost $13 billion in fiscal 2031… we are developing a new AI SoC… extending our reach into the edge AI infrastructure market” .
- “Non-GAAP gross margin for fiscal Q1 was 62%, slightly above the midpoint… due to a favorable product mix… We reported a non-GAAP net profit of $3 million or $0.07” .
Q&A Highlights
- H2 growth profile and seasonality: Management sees normal seasonality at upper half of guidance but retains conservatism due to geopolitics; October likely up seasonally; Q4 typically down sequentially .
- Edge infrastructure clarification: Near-edge use cases aggregating endpoints; advantages vs GPUs/FPGAs in performance per watt and TCO; first design win on N1 family .
- IoT vs Auto focus: IoT outpacing Auto near term due to shorter cycles; Auto expected to outperform post major OEM domain controller wins (CV3) around 2027–2028 .
- 2nm roadmap: Test chips evaluated; tape-out late 2025, silicon early 2026, with customer production targeted end of 2026 .
- Inventory/tariff checks: Regular reviews with customers and distributor show no abnormal builds; ongoing monitoring mechanisms in place .
Estimates Context
- Q1 FY26: Revenue beat (actual $85.9M vs $84.0M consensus; 11 estimates); EPS beat (actual $0.07 vs $0.038 consensus; 12 estimates). Drivers: favorable mix, strong edge AI demand, rising ASP from 5nm CV5/CV7 .
- Q4 FY25: Revenue beat ($84.0M vs $78.0M consensus; 11 estimates); EPS beat ($0.11 vs $(0.0199) consensus; 10 estimates).
- Implications: Street likely to revise FY26 revenue higher given Q2 raise to 31–35% growth and Q3 guide to $100–$108M; margins remain a watch-point as product/customer mix drives variability .
Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Edge AI leadership and breadth are driving both unit growth and ASP expansion; the narrative has shifted beyond security cameras to portable video, drones, and edge infrastructure—supportive of multi-quarter revenue momentum .
- Guidance progression is a tangible catalyst: FY26 revenue growth raised twice (19–25% in May; 31–35% in August). Monitor Q3 results vs $100–$108M target and continued breadth in IoT and auto ramp .
- Profitability inflection remains non-GAAP-led; GAAP losses persist due to investment pace. Watch non-GAAP gross margin ranges (60.5–62.0% Q2; 60.0–61.5% Q3) for signs of mix stabilization .
- Macro/tariff risks are the primary overhang; management sees no abnormal inventory builds, but H2 conservatism remains prudent. Portfolio exposure is diversified geographically and across verticals .
- Customer concentration risk: WT Microelectronics at 63.1% revenue in Q1; beneficial for fulfillment but introduces concentration sensitivity—consider in risk budgeting .
- R&D/product roadmap (CV5/CV7/N1; 2nm) is a strategic asset supporting new verticals and edge infrastructure; near-edge wins could boost ASPs and margin leverage over time .
- Tactical: Near-term trades can lean into Q3 guide execution and breadth of IoT demand; medium-term thesis hinges on automotive domain controller wins driving step-up in Auto growth around 2027–2028 .
Sources:
- Q1 FY26 8-K and press release: revenue, margins, EPS, guidance, cash balance, repurchases .
- Q1 FY26 call: mix, ASPs, segment performance, cash flow metrics, customer concentration; macro/tariffs commentary .
- Q4 FY25 8-K/call/press release: prior trends, guides, margin and cash metrics .
- Q3 FY25 8-K press release: revenue, margins, non-GAAP EPS .
- ISC West GenAI press release: edge GenAI demos, model support breadth .
- Q2 FY26 8-K/call: FY26 growth raised to 31–35%, Q3 guide $100–$108M; margin/OpEx guidance .
Note: S&P Global consensus values marked with an asterisk (*) and the statement “Values retrieved from S&P Global.”