Ardagh Metal Packaging - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, and welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging third quarter 2023 investor call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to hand the call over to Mr. Stephen Lyons, Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Stephen Lyons (Investor Relations Director)

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's third quarter 2023 earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the third quarter. We have also added an earnings presentation onto our investor website for your reference. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer, and David Bourne, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook.

AMP's earnings release and related materials for the third quarter on AMP's website at www.ardaghmetalpackaging.com. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of our AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thank you, Stephen. We delivered a robust performance in the quarter to achieve our guidance, despite weaker than expected demand conditions in Europe. Americas performance was slightly ahead of our expectations, with North America benefiting from strong shipment growth, while Brazil was broadly in line. The deterioration in European demand during the quarter negatively impacted performance against our expectations, which we anticipate will persist into Q4. Our operating cash flow generation is significantly improved versus the prior year and underpins our conviction in a strong full-year liquidity outturn. We now anticipate that full-year adjusted free cash flow, post our growth CapEx, which is near its completion, will be approximately $100 million, which is double our prior expectation. Adjusted EBITDA for the company increased by 22% versus the prior year quarter.

This reflected the contribution from increased shipments and a stronger recovery of input costs in Europe, predominantly due to the pass-through of energy costs. The prior year quarter also experienced a significant impact relating to metal valuation timing mismatches, which, through our hedging actions and reduced inventory positions, we have substantially de-risked. Global demand remains restrained by sustained retail price inflation and household financial pressures. Against this backdrop, we recorded global shipments growth of 8%, which included 18% growth in the Americas, offsetting a 2% decline in Europe. Despite our strong shipments growth, current performance continues to be impacted by fixed cost under absorption. We are committed to a disciplined balancing of our network capacity ahead of a full recovery in industry demand through a mix of curtailment and longer-term action as appropriate. As previously outlined, we target utilization in the low- to mid-90s.

In our last update, we highlighted our intention to close our remaining steel lines in Germany by the end of the year, which will help to optimize our network and drive future earnings improvement. Further to this, we are today announcing that we are commencing a review of the possible closure in Q1 2024 of our Whitehouse production facility in Ohio, North America. While the possible closure of a plant is a difficult step to consider for our team members and our communities, we must take steps to balance capacity and demand. As part of our collective bargaining agreement, we have notified employees and union representatives, and a final decision is expected before the end of this year. Out of sensitivity to those possibly affected and to the process, we will not be making any further comments on the review at this point.

We continue to progress our sustainability agenda, and highlights in the quarter included the expansion of our Ardagh for Education STEM program to Brazil, where a 10-year investment will benefit approximately 200,000 students across the communities in which we operate. Through the Can Manufacturers Institute in the U.S., we made further investments into recycling infrastructure and also launched a sustainable zero emissions distribution partnership in the Netherlands. We expect to shortly publish our 2023 sustainability report, further highlighting our progress, and we are pleased that this continues to be recognized externally, which includes the award of a platinum rating by EcoVadis to Ardagh Group, including AMP, in the quarter. Turning our attention to AMP's third quarter results.

We recorded revenue of $1.3 billion, which represented an increase of 10% as the contribution from higher volume mix and stronger non-metal input cost recovery more than offset the pass-through of lower metal prices. Adjusted EBITDA of $171 million was up 22% on the prior year. The impact from higher shipments and stronger input cost recovery was partly offset by higher operating costs due to fixed cost under absorption. Total beverage can shipments in the quarter were 8% higher than the prior year, with 18% growth in Americas offsetting a 2% decline in Europe. A working capital net inflow of $53 million compares favorably with a net outflow of $50 million in the prior year quarter and drove a strong overall cash performance. Now looking at AMP's results by segment.

Revenue in the Americas in the third quarter increased by 8% to $732 million, which reflected shipments growth, partly offset by lower input costs, largely as a result of lower metal prices. In North America, shipments grew by 20% for the quarter. This strong shipment growth is driven by the contribution from customer contract commitments backing our investment program, setting a platform for future growth, as well as the benefit from a diverse mix in our portfolio, which includes some favorable high-growth segments, such as functional energy drinks. Looking at the market overall, demand remains constrained by sustained higher retail pricing and lower promotional activity, which although increasing slightly, remains limited in terms of its depth relative to historic levels. Inflationary pressures are moderating, which gives some cause for optimism regarding a recovery in industry demand.

What remains apparent through these demand pressures is that the can is still winning in terms of substrate mix, and also through the launch of innovative new products, favoring beverage cans as the package of choice. We're encouraged by the increased annual growth in shipments across the most two recent consecutive quarters, as well as our early momentum into the fourth quarter, and this supports our forecast for shipments in our North America business to grow by over 10% this year. In Brazil, third quarter shipments increased by 8%, outperforming the low single-digit increase in the market, which benefited from improving economic conditions and favorable weather towards the end of the quarter. Market demand overall remains challenged by consumer inflationary pressures and a higher mix of returnable glass bottles than anticipated in the market. Our relative outperformance reflected a recovery following customer destocking during Q2.

We would note that negotiations between a major customer and its creditors are concluding, and an agreement has been reached under the court-supervised reorganization process. Our outlook is unchanged, and the agreement is expected to be ratified imminently. Following their destocking during the second quarter, more normal order patterns have now resumed. This recovery, as well as other customer mix effects, underpin our higher relative shipments growth versus the market in the period. Profitability was modestly impacted by some timing-related issues that should reverse in the fourth quarter. Our forecast remains for broadly flat shipments growth for our Brazil business in 2023, and we continue to balance our capacity through curtailment of our network. We reiterate our confidence in the medium-term growth characteristics of the Brazil market, which has historically been a highly attractive beverage can market.

Adjusted EBITDA in the Americas increased by 2% to $104 million in the third quarter, as the contribution from higher volumes was offset by higher costs, including fixed cost under absorption, that remained elevated as destocking was prioritized in North America. This destocking is now complete and has helped underpin the strong cash flow performance and improved liquidity in the period. In 2023, we continued to expect shipments growth in the Americas of mid- to high-single-digit %, underpinned by continued strong shipments growth in North America. Fixed cost under absorption, net of our mitigating curtailment actions, remains a headwind to our performance. We will continue to take the necessary action to balance our capacity in line with demand conditions.

As mentioned, we have today announced the review of a possible closure of our Whitehouse facility in Ohio, which represents approximately 10% of our North America capacity. We anticipate a further modest sequential improvement in EBITDA into the fourth quarter, supported by our momentum on shipments growth in North America and the seasonally stronger summer selling period in Brazil. Our performance versus the prior year will remain impacted by fixed cost under absorption and a non-repeating customer take or pay payment from Q4 2022. In Europe, third quarter revenue increased by 14% to $562 million compared with the same period in 2022, mainly due to more favorable input cost recovery.

Shipments for the quarter declined by 2% on the prior year as momentum through Q2 and into the early part of the summer fell away, impacted by consumer pressures, adverse weather, and customer destocking. The softening in demand was broad-based across categories and end markets, but it was more pronounced in Germany, Central Europe, and in the beer market, with the energy drink segment one notable area of strength. Third quarter Adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 76% to $67 million, despite the lower shipments, which predominantly reflected improved input cost recovery, principally from the passage of energy costs. For 2023, we now expect broadly flat shipments growth, which assumes a mid-single-digit percentage decline in the fourth quarter.

Reflecting this deterioration in demand, both from market weakness and customer destocking, we no longer anticipate a significant increase in Adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter versus the prior year. As mentioned in our last quarter call, it remains our intention to optimize our footprint in Europe through the closure of our remaining steel lines in Weißenthurm, Germany by the end of the year, and to fully migrate to two new efficient aluminum lines. We are making good progress in our discussions with the workforce. I'll now briefly hand over to David to talk you through our financial position before finishing with some concluding remarks.

David Bourne (CFO)

Thanks, Ollie, and hello, everyone. Moving now to our financial position. We ended the quarter with a liquidity position in excess of $500 million, and we are no longer drawing on our ABL facility. Our adjusted operating cash flow in the period again performed strongly due to the success of our working capital initiatives. The further right sizing of our North American inventory, which is now complete, impacted on our EBITDA performance in the quarter, but this underpinned our strong cash flow performance, which was further enhanced by good progress on days sales outstanding for trade receivables. The success of working capital initiatives allows us to further increase our guidance for a full year working capital benefit to approaching $200 million. This compares with our initial guide of $100 million.

Overall, our adjusted free cash flow for the first nine months of the year is $310 million better than the prior period equivalent. In the quarter, AMP incurred additional Growth CapEx of $54 million and Maintenance CapEx of $28 million. As previously indicated, our revised growth investment plans are well advanced, and cash outflows comprise the finishing of projects already underway, as well as some CapEx to add flexibility to our network. Our expectation for the current year is unchanged, which includes growth investment of just under $0.4 billion, with the cash flow element under $0.3 billion. We anticipate that Growth CapEx will fall further to circa $0.1 billion in 2024 and beyond.

Our leverage metric ended the quarter at 5.7x last 12 months adjusted EBITDA, supported by lower net debt and improving LTM adjusted EBITDA. This represents a decline of half a turn of leverage relative to the Q2 position, which we indicated represented a peak position. Supported by our stronger cash flow generation performance and the expectation of a stronger year-end liquidity position of circa $700 million, we expect a further reduction in net leverage into year-end.

In addition to our strong liquidity position, we have no near-term bond maturities and none of our fixed rate bonds maturing ahead of 2027, with no maintenance covenants on our bonds. We have today announced our quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share, to be paid later in December, in line with our guidance and supported by the cash generation of our business. Our capital allocation strategy will continue to prioritize dividend sustainability and deleveraging. With that, I'll hand back to Ollie.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks, David. Before moving to take your questions, I'll just recap on the key messages and our performance. We achieved our Q3 guidance, backed by global shipments growth of 8%, led by strong shipments growth of 18% in the Americas, offsetting a decline of 2% in Europe, where we do see demand weak into Q4. Our operating cash flow generation continues to perform strongly, and despite our lower earnings forecast for 2022, we're improving our free cash flow forecast and anticipate a stronger year-end liquidity position than previously forecast. We remain focused on prudently managing our capacity, addressing our Fixed Cost Under Absorption, and supporting future earnings improvement.

We lower our guidance for 2023 to include global shipments growth of approximately a mid-single-digit percentage, reflecting the weaker-than-expected demand in Europe, and expect Adjusted EBITDA in the order of $610 million, which also reflects the weaker outlook in Europe. In terms of guidance for the fourth quarter, Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be in the order of $158 million, which is broadly in line with prior year Adjusted EBITDA of $159 million. Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you would like to ask a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. If you're using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is released to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, it is star one if you would like to ask a question. And we'll go ahead and take our first question from Mike Roxland with Truist Securities. Please go ahead.

Mike Roxland (Director of Equity Research)

Thank you, Ollie, David, and Stephen, for taking my questions. Looking at North America, volume's up 20% in Q3. Just wanted to get a sense of whether that was in line with your internal plan or, or better. Obviously, some of that's related to the new capacity you brought online, but just trying to get a sense. It's really a very strong number. Trying to get a sense whether that was better than you expected, and if so, you know, what, what factors had, you know, were driving that?

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah, thanks, Mike. I think it was a point or two above our internal expectation. We did have good growth prospects for this year in our plans, which, you know, we signaled at the beginning of the year, and we, you know, repeated in Q2. So I think it was better, but not, you know, dramatically better than how we saw the year and how we saw the quarter. And as I said in my remarks, I think we're sitting on some nice growth spaces in the market, with the functional energy in particular, but other innovation that's coming through to the market. I think the can continues to be the home of innovation, particularly in North America, and we're seeing some great products come to market and really pop.

And then we also had a strong performance in other categories. We had some good mix of locations and bottlers on the carbonated soft drink side. So, yeah, we definitely sat on the right side of the market in the, in the quarter. I think we see the market broadly as others are seeing it, so it's probably... sort of overall flat to slightly positive with a, a balance, and we see imports coming down in the import data, so domestic production will be a bit above, a few points above.

So, you know, the market is still a bit depressed by the strong retail pricing that our customers have put in place in the last 12 months. But again, I think we see that washing out in the next few months. So we feel good about 2024 in terms of the market returning to growth, and we feel good about our growth prospects for 2024 in North America as well.

Mike Roxland (Director of Equity Research)

Got it. Appreciate all the color there, Ollie. Just one follow-up. If demand is so strong as you say it is, and you're expecting demand to further improve in 2024, why do you feel the portfolio rationalization you mentioned is necessary? I know you may not be able to comment further or restricting your ability. So if you are, I totally understand that, but it just seems, you know, if things are truly getting better and you're seeing them right now, and you're only going to see improvement next year, then it would make sense to have all your assets in place to address that demand.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

No, I understand the question. So, as I say, I think the market will improve next year. I didn't say we'll do better than our performance this year. I think that would be a strong statement at this point, and we're not guiding on 2024 yet, though we do see good volume growth in North America in 2024. So look, I think it's simply a question of the growth that we originally expected, you know, both on the side of the hard seltzers, but also generally in the market in the last two years, has been a big step down for all players and expectations due to the inflationary price environment.

So, you know, when we netted all that out, looked out a few years, we were still carrying, and we still are carrying too much fixed cost relative to that, even with the strong growth that we've had. So therefore, we felt it was appropriate to start the consultation process, which, as you say, I can't say any more about that at this point.

Mike Roxland (Director of Equity Research)

Got it. Thank you very much, and good luck in fourth Q.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks, Mike.

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Anthony Pettinari with Citi. Please go ahead.

Anthony Pettinari (U.S. Homebuilding and Building Products Analyst)

Good morning. You know, in Brazil, you talked about customer destocking, and I was wondering if you could just help us understand where, you know, customers are in that process. And then with regards to glass containers, you know, I think you talked about, you know, the can winning globally. Just wondering how that dynamic is playing out in Brazil this year, and are there reasons to think, you know, as we look to 2024, that cans may, you know, regain some share or hold share, or lose share? Like, how would you describe the dynamic there currently?

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Sure. Yeah. Hi, Anthony. Look, I think there's every reason to be positive about future Brazil demand in cans. You know, the market's probably flat, should be flat to positive by the end of the year, in what has been a very tough time for the can, given the amount of inflation that came through from high LME, from the devaluation of the real, and all that that meant for metal costs going into cans. So I think as those effects normalize, and we are seeing the economy improve, it's definitely having a better year than forecast, we'll see retail pricing on cans normalize, and we'll see growth back in cans. And I think there is a limit to the returnable recovery that's happened this year. So I think that will flatten out, and we'll go back to the old trends that we saw.

But clearly, we've missed a year or two of growth, and clearly therefore, you know, the absolute volume in cans in the market at the moment is down on what everybody anticipated, and that's impacting our growth and the growth of others. The destocking I mentioned was a very specific link to the customer that went through the judicial reorganization. So I don't think we're seeing broad-scale destocking now. I think, you know, Brazil customers have rebalanced, and we're seeing a rough good match between sales and shipments. And as I say, I think we've had, you know, signs of good growth in the market already in the last couple of months, and we'd be hopeful for that continuing.

Anthony Pettinari (U.S. Homebuilding and Building Products Analyst)

Okay, that, that's very helpful. And then just shifting gears, you know, you talked about the raised working capital guidance and the free cash flow performance, which is very helpful. You know, can you talk a little bit more about the dividend? You know, the, the stock is trading, I, I guess, 14% dividend yield. You know, understanding you're not giving guidance for 2024, I'm just wondering if you can maybe highlight some of the puts and takes for free cash flow, maybe next year or going forward, that can help us kinda think about the, the dividend and dividend sustainability.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Sure. I'll kick it off, and I'll pass to David for some other comments. But look, I think, as you say, we've just had a very strong cash performance. We see that cash performance, you know, improving into the year-end, and we see our CapEx coming down, you know, in 2024 and beyond, because we've built out, you know, a very strong network, you know, with new efficient capacity that we can grow into for a number of years. So, you know, we think that that underpins the dividend. You know, we've got lots of other actions we can take, and we feel confident about that. So, you know, as far as we're concerned, nothing has changed. We think the dividend is important to our shareholders and is a core part of our capital structure. I'll also pass to David for any other puts and takes on cash flow.

David Bourne (CFO)

Yeah. Thanks, Ollie, and hi, Anthony. So yeah, obviously we go into next year with enhanced liquidity from where our initial modeling was to start with. And as Ollie rightly alluded to-

Oliver Graham (CEO)

I hope to pass to David, but maybe something's going wrong with our line. Do you still hear me, Anthony?

Anthony Pettinari (U.S. Homebuilding and Building Products Analyst)

I do. I do.

David Bourne (CFO)

Hi there, is that better now?

Anthony Pettinari (U.S. Homebuilding and Building Products Analyst)

Yeah, I can hear you.

David Bourne (CFO)

Yeah, perfect. Sorry about that. So thanks, Ollie, and hi, Anthony. So as Ollie alluded to, I think we go into the new year with stronger liquidity, which is clearly a positive. What we have is the impact of the reduction in our growth investment CapEx spend, which will be of the order of $200 million. And if you look at our working capital inflow this year, that's also of the order of $200 million. So you think—you can think about the two in the same breath when you're kind of thinking through 2024, and then probably modeling earnings growth, over the top of that, when we're thinking about kind of free cash flow coverage of the dividend at that stage.

Operator (participant)

Okay, that, that's very helpful. I'll turn it over. And our next question will come from George Staphos with the Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Cashen Keeler (Analyst)

Yeah. Hi, good morning. Thanks for the details. This is actually Cashen Keeler on behalf of George. We had conflicting calls this morning. So first off, you know, you had pretty strong volume growth in the Americas overall, and, you know, I recognize there's this fixed cost under absorption, but I guess, are there any other factors in incremental margins such that we didn't kind of see more volume through, flow through to earnings? And I guess as we move into 2024, you're highlighting that you expect continued growth in North America. So just wondering about kind of the earnings trajectory for the Americas into 2024 as well.

David Bourne (CFO)

Yeah, thanks for the question. I think Ollie may have dropped off the line for a second, so I'll answer on his behalf.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Okay, I apologize. I have a small technical issue that I'm not hearing the question, but I have had the question put to me, so I'll answer it. About any factors other than fixed cost absorption, preventing volume growth flowing through to earnings in Americas. So yeah, I think in Q3, we did have a couple of issues. One was that we didn't produce as much. We regulated inventories, and that's what drove the strong cash flow performance. And so that did impact EBITDA relative to cash flows, because we curtailed some production. We did have some planned and foreseen cost headwinds, one-off cost headwinds in Q3, including a provision release for Bang Energy after the takeover. So that was a negative also in the quarter for North America.

On the South America side, there was a small timing issue that we mentioned in the remarks that also impacted Q3. So I think those are the main things. Looking into the fourth quarter, as I said in the remarks, we did have a specific take-or-pay in Q4 in North America. That doesn't repeat, so that's a negative. We had a very strong quarter for ends in Brazil in Q4 2022, that we're not going to be able to lap fully, which is a small negative in Brazil as well, relative to the volume growth we anticipate. So hopefully that addresses the question.

Cashen Keeler (Analyst)

Great. Appreciate that. And understand, you know, you're fairly limited on what you can disclose. But just with regards to this potential closure in North America, are you able to talk about at all, you know, how this plant's cost position sits relative to the rest of your network? And then, I guess, as an overall industry, how would you, you know, characterize operating rates, you know, for the BevCan market at the moment in North America?

David Bourne (CFO)

On the assumption Ollie's having some technical difficulties, I'll pick up the answer for that. So, obviously, we are limited in what we're able to say while the Whitehouse negotiation kicks off, and we'll see where that gets to. But Whitehouse is one of the highest cost plants in our network in North America, and an older plant with it, and therefore, you know, has some fixed costs attached to it, which will be helpful for takeout. Typically, with a plant of that magnitude, you can model something in the low double digits, yeah, in terms of the actual cost takeout for that plant. Over the top of that, obviously, by spreading volumes through to other plants, you get some potential fixed cost overhead absorption benefits sitting over the top of that.

Operator (participant)

We'll move to our next question from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Hi, sorry about that. Thanks for taking my question. Just real quickly, the leverage is relatively high at 5.7x. Maybe you can just discuss the... If the $100 million in free cash flow would be used, how would that be used towards deleveraging? And maybe where you plan to end up in maybe fiscal 2024 end? Thanks.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah. David, do you want to take that?

David Bourne (CFO)

Yeah. Thank you for the question, Arun. As set out in our opening remarks, really, we have a very clear capital allocation policy. We regard the dividends as sustainable, and we'll continue to adopt our $0.10 per quarter path on that, you know, as backed up by the strong cash generation you've seen in the last quarter. We deleveraged half a turn during this quarter from 6.2x, which we said would be a peak, down to 5.7x, and we anticipate further deleveraging through to year-end.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Analyst)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Our next question will come from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi, this is Alex in for Gabe Hajde. I just want to first, I guess, ask about the stocking in North America. I know you guys said it's now complete. Is that, you know, based on your conversation with the customers, or is that based on order books? Can you just help us understand, you know, the destocking trend that we've seen in Q3, and then maybe the outlook into Q4 next year? Thanks.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah. I guess look, to be clear, we mean our destocking there. So, so we've been reducing inventories, you know, in Q2 and Q3, and that's why we, you know, that's the explanation for why we don't have the level of EBITDA growth that you might expect with this level of volume growth, because we've been prioritizing reducing those inventories, which is what's driven the cash flow. I mean, if we turn to the customer, I think, you know, pretty much all the destocking is complete in the North American customer base. In our part of the market, obviously, we're not sitting with a mass beer position, and we've not been impacted directly by the issues with the one particular brand in North America this year.

So, you know, there may be stock sitting in supply chain in those parts of the market, but if you look across soft drinks, energy, and the market, you know, sparkling waters, the markets that we're playing in, we don't see customers having elevated levels of stocks any longer. And we also, this has been very important this year, don't see them having elevated levels of expensive imports sitting in their stocks, which they needed to run out. So from our point of view, that's all cleared out, and what we've been doing this year is also right-sizing our inventories to drive our cash flow.

Speaker 9

Okay, that's helpful. And maybe just in Europe, you guys talk about the softer demand conditions. Is this, can you maybe just help us understand, is this a trend that has been getting worse from Q2 and in Q3? And what your view is into what it looks like for next year? Thanks.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah. I think visibility into next year is not strong right now, and, you know, I think one of the major beer players came out and said they also needed a bit more time on their business planning. And I think we're seeing that with all our customers in Europe, that they're going through their business planning cycle. I think that what my guess is that leads to is an increased focus on volume relative to price, because I think, you know, when you see what's happened over the summer, it's clear the price lever, I think is pretty much done. And also, I think input costs are moderating. And so I think we'll see a prioritization of volume relative to price into 2024, but they've not gone through that cycle in full yet.

And so we don't have the detail, and obviously, we'll be able to update much more on that in February. I think, I mean, what we saw during the quarter was a deterioration from essentially the first part of August. So we had a strong June, 9% growth, a pretty strong July, 5%, and then we ended up at -6%, -6% in August and September. And, you know, when we then got the Nielsen data and other market data, what was clear is that from July through August, sales, you know, retail deteriorated, and it looks like the combination of a very poor summer across Northern Europe, together with the weakness in consumer spending, you know, added up to an overall weakness that our customers had not anticipated at all.

So they therefore built stock into the summer, and when they realized that they weren't getting a sell-through, obviously they stopped buying from us, and we saw that then come through in the second part of August and September. It has stabilized now in October, and that, that guidance has also been given by the customers that have come to come out with their, their remarks, though it's still, you know, fragile, I'd say, but it's definitely stabilized in October. We had last year a pretty strong end of Q4, November, December, so we're being cautious about our guidance through the remainder of the year. And as I say, I think there's lots of reasons to believe that a, you know, positive outlook in 2024, despite the fact that consumer will remain under pressure.

I think that, you know, wage growth will catch up with inflation, cost pressures will mitigate. I think the brands will look more to volume, having played a strong game on price in their revenue growth for the last 12 months. You know, we'd be positive about growth in 2024 in Europe, but at the moment, we can't call the exact numbers because we haven't got the details from our customers.

Speaker 9

Thank you. That's very helpful. I'll turn it over.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

... Our next question will come from [Diego Silva] with Square Asset Management. Please go ahead. And your line is open. Again, caller, your line is open.

Speaker 8

Hi, apologies. I just have a quick question, which is, I've seen the growth CapEx guidance for this year, but could you give a guidance on total CapEx spend, for this year? And equally, on the restructuring costs, is there any kind of indication on what will be the total restructuring costs of the facility closures and the timing of those? Thank you very much.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

David, do you want to take those two?

David Bourne (CFO)

Well, I'll take that one first. So yeah, full CapEx will be of the order of $0.4 billion in terms of cash CapEx. But that includes maintenance and IT and sustainability spend of approximately $130 million, which is around about our usual number and is fairly consistent year to year, aside from the business growth investment CapEx. In terms of closure costs, if our financial statements will give you the numbers, if you look in the exceptional section there for Weißenthurm, in terms of our current estimates around that, and clearly, Whitehouse is at too early a stage of negotiation to comment on at this point.

Speaker 8

Thank you very much.

Operator (participant)

And with that, that is all the time. And if you'd like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. Again, it is star one if you'd like to ask a question. Again, it is star one if you'd like to ask a question. And with that, I would like to turn the call back over to Oliver for any additional or closing remarks.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks, Allie. So look, thank you, everybody. Just to summarize, we achieved our Q3 guidance as our performance in North America, backed by strong volume growth, was slightly ahead of expectations, and that offset some weakening demand in Europe. We delivered very strong operating cash performance again in the quarter, which reflected the success of our ongoing working capital initiatives. And as a result of that, we now expect stronger projected year-end liquidity at around $700 million. We continue to manage our network in a disciplined manner to balance with demand. So with that, we look forward to talking to you again at our Q4 results. Thanks very much.

Operator (participant)

With that, that does conclude today's call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.