Ardagh Metal Packaging - Earnings Call - Q4 2021

Transcript

Speaker 0

Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging fourth quarter two thousand twenty one investor call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to mister Oliver Graham, CEO of Ardagh Metal Packaging. Please go ahead, sir.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Orlando. Welcome, everybody, and thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's fourth quarter twenty twenty one earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of A and P's earnings release for the fourth quarter and the full year. I'm joined today by David Born, A and P's Chief Financial Officer and by Stephen Lyons, A and P's Investor Relations Officer. Before moving to your questions, I will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. Remarks today will include certain forward looking statements.

These reflect circumstances at the time they are made and the company expressly disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward looking statements. Actual results or outcomes may differ materially from those that may be expressed or implied due to a wide range of factors, including those set forth in the P's SEC filings and news releases. A and P's earnings release and related materials for the fourth quarter and the full year can be found on A and P's website at ardarmetalpackaging.com. Information regarding the use of non GAAP financial measures may also be found in the Notes section of the release, which also includes a reconciliation to the most comparable GAAP measures of adjusted EBITDA, adjusted operating cash flow and adjusted free cash flow. Details of A P's statutory forward looking statements disclaimer can be found in A and P's SEC filings.

I'll now provide an overview of A and P's full year and fourth quarter results. A and P recorded full year 2021 revenue of $4,100,000,000 and adjusted EBITDA of $662,000,000 representing annual growth of 1519% respectively on a constant currency basis. Strong underlying cash flow generation with adjusted free cash flow before growth investment capital expenditure for the year of $389,000,000 resulted in a net debt leverage ratio of under 3.7 times that was largely ahead of expectation. These results exceeded the plan set out a year ago when ADA announced its intention to list the shares in AMP and were achieved against the backdrop of a highly inflationary environment, tight global supply chains and COVID related challenges. I would like to express our thanks to our colleagues across the business for their unswerving commitment as well as the support of our customers, suppliers, and other business partners.

These results also mark a year of significant achievement for AMP as in addition to listing AMP on the New York Stock Exchange as a leading pure play beverage can group, a number of other key milestones were achieved, including progressing very well the value creating business growth investments. These contributed strongly to 2021 performance and the program has been enhanced by additional project announcements that reflect the strong market outlook. And significantly advancing the sustainability agenda during the year issuing a $2,800,000,000 green bond to support a lowering of AMP's carbon footprint and publishing updated ambitious targets in AMP's sustainability report. Looking in more detail into the fourth quarter and focused on constant currency exchange rates, revenue of $1,090,000,000 increased by 22% reflecting increased shipments and the pass through of higher aluminum and other input costs. Adjusted EBITDA increased by 19 to $165,000,000 compared with the same period last year, driven by a strong advance in The Americas.

Total beverage can shipments in the quarter were 6% higher than the prior year, despite a demanding prior year comparable when shipments rose 7%. Growth was driven by strong performances in both Europe and North America, with buoyant customer demand reflected in tight supply conditions. This favorable demand backdrop underpins planned new capacity additions in 2022 and beyond. Specialty cans represented 48% of global shipments in the quarter, up from 46% in the prior year quarter and are set to rise to over 50% of our mix in 2022. If you include 50 centiliter cans in Europe in that calculation, as do some industry players, our specialty mix is highest still at 62% in the fourth quarter and 61% for the year.

The business is contracted on a very high 90% of planned volumes for 2022 and close to 90% out to 2024. Growth of a mid to high teens percentage in total shipments in 2022 is anticipated as our highly earnings accretive growth investments continue their ramp up or commence production. Now looking at A and P's results by segment and at constant exchange rates. Revenue in The Americas increased by 28% to $632,000,000 mainly due to the pass through of higher input costs. Shipments are 1% higher than the fourth quarter of twenty twenty with a strong performance in North America, partly offset by principally weather related softness in Brazil.

In North America, shipments grew by 6% for the quarter. Demand remains strong across the broad mix of categories to which JMP has exposure with particular strength in energy and fitness drinks, ready to drink cocktails and carbonated soft drinks. The beverage can market remains capacity constrained illustrated by over 14,000,000,000 of imported cans into North America in 2021, underpinning ongoing and planned new capacity additions. In Brazil, fourth quarter shipments declined by a low teens percentage measured against a tough comparable, which had grown by almost 20%. Shipments in the quarter were impacted by adverse weather conditions as well as by COVID restrictions on social gatherings.

Overall volumes were flat for the full year. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in The Americas increased by 26% to $111,000,000 Growth reflected higher volumes, a strong cost performance and a favorable sales mix compared with the prior year, supported by the contribution from investments made in the latter part of 2020 and through 2021. Looking forward, 2022 shipment growth of over 20% in The Americas is anticipated, led by North America as customer contracted new capacity additions come online and support strong broad based category growth. Recent softness in Brazil is expected to continue in the first half of twenty twenty two, but A and P remains very confident on prospects for the Brazilian market as the long standing driver of two way to one way packaging continues to drive demand for beverage cans. In Europe, fourth quarter revenue increased by 16% at constant currency to $455,000,000 compared with the same period in 2020.

Shipments increased by 11% compared with the prior year, despite a strong prior year comparable of 8%. Growth was broad based across the alcoholic and non alcoholic beverage categories with notable strength in energy drinks. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 6% on a constant currency basis to $54,000,000 The impact of strong shipments in the period was partly offset by input cost inflation with high European energy costs well documented. Looking to 2022, full year shipments are expected to grow almost 10% benefiting from the addition of new capacity in Germany and The UK during the first half of the year. Europe remains a capacity constrained market and dialogue with customers continues to confirm a positive demand outlook for the medium term.

Turning to A and P's growth initiatives. Excellent progress was made on the business growth investment program during 2021, underpinning projected growth in 2022. Total investment on these growth projects during the year was almost $700,000,000 This was despite the increasing impact in the final quarter of delays due to global logistics pressures and selective component shortages. Entering 2022, these pressures remain evident and project teams continue to navigate these challenges well. To recap on some of the larger growth investment projects, in North America, two new high speed sleep lines in Olive Branch, Mississippi ramped up successfully from early twenty twenty one.

The first of two new lines in Winston Salem, North Carolina began production in early twenty twenty two, with the second new high speed lines commence production in the next quarter. Our Huron, Ohio brownfield expansion began to produce ends in November, one year after the site's acquisition with can lines beginning to ramp up in the first half of this year. In Europe, new capacity in Germany and in Mainland UK also starts up in the first half of twenty twenty two. And in Brazil, additional capacity came online in Jakarai in the last quarter and will continue to ramp up through 2022. Brazil ends capacity was also expanded in 2021 and additional investments are planned for 2022.

In October, we set out plans for a new can facility in The U. S. Southwest. This multiline plant will be based in Arizona and will add an initial $3,500,000,000 of capacity to support customers' growth. Construction will begin later this year with production commencing in the first half of twenty twenty four.

The plant will have space for further expansion as we continue to contract customer volumes for 2025 and beyond. The Northern Ireland greenfield expansion is progressing through planning. It will be the only can making plant on the island of Ireland and will benefit from Northern Ireland's unique trade status. This plant is expected to start producing cans in the second half of twenty twenty three. All of these investments are well contracted and backed by a diverse mix of customers and importantly expand the strategic reach of AMP's network within attractive markets.

Investment of over $1,000,000,000 on business growth investments is planned during 2022, including initial outlays on these two new projects, all of which generate significant earnings and free cash flow accretion. In summary, the investment program has made significant progress in 2021. Project teams have done an excellent job in managing execution risk, helped to refocus where possible on expansion within existing facilities, thereby leveraging an established skill base, community presence, and scale. While not immune to the short term challenges presented by the global supply chain, our plan set out a year ago to more double adjusted EBITDA from 2020 to 2024 remains well on track. The outlook for medium to long term demand in each of our markets remains very positive based upon long term secular growth trends supporting the beverage can, which continue to strengthen.

These include sustainability, convenience and innovation. AMP continues to partner with global customers to support their introduction of new categories, premiumization, as well as playing an integral role in our customer sustainability agendas. Secondly, demand for aluminum cans continues to outpace supply globally. AMP faces shortages in supplying customers across the North America and European markets, and the business is mostly sold out into 2024. Finally, current demand levels have resulted in abnormal and uneconomic product flows.

Most starkly, imports into The US market continue to run at elevated levels, totaling over 14,000,000,000 cans in 2021 and equivalent to over 10% of market demand. Imports are now expected to continue into 2022. Furthermore, inventories remain at low levels and operating rates continue to be elevated. These demand drivers are expected to continue over the medium to long term and A and P expects to take advantage of additional investment opportunities that meet our strict return criteria and offer attractive paybacks in line with the existing growth program. Turning to sustainability, which is at the heart of everything we do in AMP and our strategy based around the three key pillars of emissions, ecology, and social sustainability.

AMP is committed to achieving science based targets through the science based target initiative, and approval is expected later this year and to delivering zero waste to landfill by 2025. Ambitious new targets have been set to 2030 that include a 100% renewable electricity, a 20% reduction in water usage, and a 10% reduction in VOC emissions. ADAR's sustainability efforts were further affirmed by the recent award of a gold rating from EcoVadis for the sixth successive year, which places ADAR in the top 5% of companies assessed by EcoVadis. ADAR also again received a supplier engagement rating of A from the global sustainability not for profit CDP ranking in the top 8% of companies who provided disclosures. ADAR also has an A minus rating from CDP for both climate change and water management.

And in the next few months, the allocation and impact report are to be published as committed to in the green bond framework for the proceeds that were raised last year. AMP has an important role to play to elevate the sustainability agenda across the value chain. In this regard, AMP is a leading participant across industry groups and regularly engages with local authorities and government bodies. As an example, through our participation in CMI, AMP is engaged in a significant program with recycling facilities to increase the capture of beverage cans in the refuse stream in North America. Employees' well-being and safety is of great importance to us.

The business is operated under the highest standards to mitigate COVID risk and through our Be Safe initiative is constantly striving to improve employee safety with continuous training and education. During the year, a new hybrid working policy was rolled out and AMP continues to reinvest in its people through learning and leadership development as well as an employee wellness initiative. Deep community connections are vital to AMP's continued success, particularly in securing talented people from the communities in which AMP operates. Last year, ADAR announced a $50,000,000 investment in STEM education across ADAR's locations in The US. To date partnering with Project Lead the Way to fund two seventy six schools in 47 school districts.

ADAR is currently working to expand this initiative into Europe and Brazil. Moving now to the financial position and capital allocation framework. As well as delivering adjusted EBITDA of $662,000,000 in 2021, A and P generated strong cash flows and maintained a strong liquidity position. Strong underlying cash generation with adjusted free cash flow before growth investment capital expenditure for the year of $389,000,000 represented a conversion ratio of 59% of adjusted EBITDA. Underlying cash generation is projected to grow significantly over the medium term as the pipeline of growth projects come on stream and fully contribute to earnings.

Total liquidity at year end was $788,000,000 of which over $463,000,000 was in cash and the balance by way of an undrawn ABL facility. Net leverage ended the year under 3.7 times adjusted EBITDA. In terms of our capital allocation framework, we recognize the importance of regular cash returns to shareholders in tandem with growing earnings and cash flow through the substantial investment program. To enable AMP to pursue these twin objectives in future, we intend to maintain net leverage in the range of 3.75 to four times twelve months forward looking adjusted EBITDA. This leverage range will govern cash returns to shareholders and in 2022, we plan to return $400,000,000 to shareholders.

We intend to grow future annual returns of capital to shareholders progressively in line with business and cash flow growth. In 2022, A and P envisages paying a quarterly dividend for the first three quarters of zero one zero dollars per share, costing approximately $180,000,000 with the balance of $220,000,000 being paid before year end of the fourth quarter distribution. Dividends are our preferred means to return cash to shareholders, thereby avoiding a reduction in the public float. To enable us to achieve our important objectives of firstly implementing and if appropriate, increasing our significant and profitable development program and secondly, returning substantial amounts of cash to shareholders and thirdly, maintaining leverage within the range outlined above. We plan in the near future to launch an issue of non convertible preference shares to raise $600,000,000 A and P continues to favor organic expansion opportunities over M and A as there is ample opportunity to strengthen the network in our existing attractive end markets.

Before moving to take your questions, I'd like to recap on A and P's performance and key messages. Today, A and P reported strong growth in fourth quarter and full year earnings, reflecting a focus on sustainable metal packaging, A and P's diverse customer base and attractive end markets. Over the last five years, A and P has grown EBITDA at a double digit annual growth rate and by 32% in the past two years. In the year since the business time was presented to the market, medium term demand prospects driven by sustainability and other secular trends have strengthened and the beverage can continues to win as the packaging of choice for exciting new product categories. AMP has a clear customer backed plan to grasp this opportunity, and implementation to date is progressing very well, with additional growth opportunities expected to arise.

The amended capital allocation framework outlined today enables AMP to address shareholders' desire for both the secular growth offered by Beverage Can Packaging, as well as for significant and regular cash returns, whilst at the same time maintaining leverage at appropriate levels. AMP's plan is expected to deliver on customers' growth ambitions and to provide very strong returns for shareholders. AMP's experienced team continues to actively manage the highly inflationary environment and tight global supply chain. Contract structures are characterized by multi year agreements with cost pass through provisions, which provide resilience against an uncertain inflationary environment, albeit subject to some occasional timing lags. Looking to 2022, demand in North America and Europe remains strong, while Brazil has experienced softer demand in recent months.

AMP expects to deliver accelerated growth in shipments of mid to high teens percent at a group level for the year with some second half weighting as new capacity continues to come on stream and ramp up through the year. Our confidence in the strength and resilience across our end markets is underpinned by further expanding the current growth investment program. Full year 2022 adjusted EBITDA is projected in the order of $775,000,000 which is after taking account of a $20,000,000 currency translation headwind relative to the exchange rate in the business plan filed with the SEC in February 2021. In terms of guidance, first quarter adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to be broadly in line with the prior year constant currency outturn of $144,000,000 Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have. There are lots of people on the line, so could we ask that participants please limit themselves to one question and one follow-up?

Thank you.

Speaker 0

Thank you. And if you would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our to reach our equipment. Again, everyone, please press star one if you would like to ask a question, and we'll pause for a moment to assemble the queue. And we will first hear from George Staphos with Bank of America.

Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Hi, thank you. Thanks for all the details guys, and congratulations on the progress in the year. My two questions, the first one relates to margin. If you can give us a bit of color in terms of what was driving the SG and A reduction in 4Q? And then broadly for Europe, how should we think about that from an EBITDA standpoint relative to your $775,000,000 guide?

And then secondly, if you could give us a bit more thoughts on how you think about the preference shares and the offering relative to the value return and the dividends that you'll be relaying $400,000,000 in total 2022? Some additional thoughts there would be great. Thank you, guys.

Speaker 1

Thanks, George. So I think the cost improvement in Q4 is really about partly about the growth. So we were covering SG and A in a more effective way. And I think that we've obviously kept very tight cost control through Q4 recognizing some of the challenges in global environment. And we see European margins, I think, are progressing well as per the plan.

So we don't see any immediate shift to the medium term guidance on that. I think as we signaled in the Q3 results and we're again signaling today, there are some minor lags in inflation recovery in Europe for 2022. And that's one of the reasons we adjusted guidance by about €20,000,000 after the €20,000,000 of foreign exchange translation. And then on the preference shares and the value return, I mean, I think the overall points were made in remarks that we recognize that returns to shareholders are important. We want to continue with our growth investments and this is the second generation that we also discussed during our investor road show last year that we're into now.

And we want to keep leverage at appropriate levels. And so we felt this was the right way to go with the preference shares and the dividend return.

Speaker 2

Okay. Thank you. I will turn it over.

Speaker 1

Thanks, George.

Speaker 0

And up next, we'll hear from Anoja Shah with BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 3

Hi. Good morning. I was wondering if there's any way for you to to outline the financial lift you expect in 2022 from from the new capacity coming online. And also if you're assuming any start up costs in your EBITDA guidance?

Speaker 1

Yes. I'll pass that to David.

Speaker 4

Yes. So start up costs exceptionals for this year for start up costs of 30,000,000 Prospectively, we expect that to be around about the GBP 60,000,000 mark in FY 2022.

Speaker 1

And then I think in terms of the lift from the capacity additions, I mean, we've got somewhere GBP $67,000,000,000 of capacity addition coming on this year. I don't think we're giving an exact breakdown of the EBITDA linked to that versus the underlying business, but that's the level of growth and I think we gave the overall percentage growth by region. Obviously, they're a big driver in the growth of EBITDA from 2021 to 2022.

Speaker 4

Yes. And just to clarify my earlier point on startups, of course, under IFRS, they don't sit within EBITDA. They sit in the exceptional category. So just so you're clear on that one.

Speaker 3

Okay. Thank you for that. And then for my second question, I just wanted to ask a bit more about Brazil. So it sounds like you were flat in '21, but you're still optimistic about long term growth there, and you're building a new plant this year. Can you just talk about the growth that you expect for 2022 and then also your medium term growth expectation?

Speaker 1

Yes. So look, we're very positive about the market. I mean, Brazil has been one of the best CAM markets in the world for the last twenty five years. I think we only had one year without growth, twenty sixteen, when, you know, there's some quite severe financial stresses on the economy in that year. So there's a very long term trend of two way glass into one way packaging.

And today, one way glass has been very short and so that packaging has gone one way packaging has gone into cans. Plus you've got growth in the underlying categories of beer in particular, you know, as the economy grows. So it's a very attractive can market and we're very positive about it. The market did grow 5% last year, but that growth was taken by, one of the customers' own can plant. So that's where that growth sat last year as opposed to in the traditional cam makers, but that's obviously now in the market.

So now we expect the growth to go back among the cam makers. And I think we have a long term projection that we talked about last year that we hold by, which is a six to 10% growth market. Now this year does look a little weak in the first half, so we've got two or three things going on. We had a very exceptional weather in the summer season that we're in at the moment, very rainy and cold. We do have COVID impacts, Carnival, which is coming up soon, is a good event for the CAN, but that's essentially being restricted by COVID.

And then there is some economic downturn caused by the devaluation. And we also do as ourselves have a slight mix disadvantage in our results from customer mix, which will evolve out of as we diversify our customer mix over the next few years. So, you know, we're predicting low teens growth for the year, but it will be definitely weighted to the second half, where we see, you know, a strong Q3, Q4. We've got a World Cup, which is always very positive in in Brazil. And then just to clarify, what we have coming up this year actually is a is a new line, not the greenfield.

The greenfield comes later. So we have Jack Roy, which is in Sao Paulo. That capacity came up at the back end of last year and is now ramping. And then we have an additional line at the back end of the year in our plant in the Northeast Of Brazil.

Speaker 3

Great. Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Pleasure. Thank you.

Speaker 0

All right. And our next question will come from Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Speaker 5

Great. Thanks for taking my question. I guess what I wanted to delve into the volume growth a little bit. Just confused a little bit by, you know, you said 6% in North America, but and then 6% overall, but it sounds like you have 11% in Europe. So I guess maybe if we could understand that a little bit more, that'd be helpful.

And then similarly, I guess, going forward, how are you thinking about volume growth in the two regions? Yes, maybe just touch on that first. Thanks.

Speaker 1

Yes. So the math to get to your six overall is that we had negative low teens volumes in Brazil. So your Americas number is the mix of those two and with the strong Europe, you get to your 6% full year. So what we were seeing in Q4 was the poor performance of the Brazilian market, which is well documented in the industry data and is confirmed by our peers. Then going into this year, I think we signaled in the remarks over 20% growth in Americas and just short of 10% growth in Europe for the year.

Speaker 5

Okay. Thanks for that. And then I guess I also wanted to follow-up on the European market a little bit. So again, yes, good growth. Would you characterize that market as running relatively full or sold out potentially?

And if so, is there an opportunity for pricing and potentially moving some of those contracts up? Is that necessary within European business?

Speaker 1

Yes. So the market is definitely short and capacity constrained at the moment. And we're getting a lot of inbound requests this year and for future years. So it's definitely an imbalance there on the supply and demand. And as a result, over the last few years, we have seen contract strengthen in Europe in a similar way to the strength in North America.

I think we've said before these calls, we're happy with our European contract situation. The only thing we flagged in the Q3s and flagging again today is some lags in the way that the inflation pass through works, which will have an impact in the first half, particularly this year. But otherwise, we're happy with our contractual situation in Europe.

Speaker 5

And then just lastly, I also wanted to just ask about the import situation. So it looks like 'twenty one is gonna see double digit, you know, billions of units of imports into the into the North American market. Is that is that the right range? And I guess, you know, how do you see that evolving over the next couple years as new capacity comes on? Would it be the case that ultimately you wouldn't see any imports, maybe three or four years out?

And if that's the case, which markets would that really hurt? Is it Brazil and Mexico, I e, are much of the imports now into North America coming from those two markets?

Speaker 1

Yes. So I think the number we've seen is around $14,000,000,000 of imports for 2021. And what we hear, and I think we saw it on some of the other calls, is that those imports will persist into 2022, probably not at that level, but the imports will persist into 2022. They don't come from us, but they have been coming from all over the world. I think, obviously, there will be some long term imports from Mexico.

Some cans can travel down from Canada, they seem to have been coming from really all over the world into North America, Middle East, South Africa, China. Our observation is we do not see those replaced imports as destabilizing any markets we're in. So as far as we're concerned, both we're not in those markets, but also these imports are very, very uneconomic. So they're not just then going to appear in other markets. Those markets are also growing, they'll get grown into over time as well.

We don't see any negative from that. Obviously, it's not a very compelling prospect from a sustainability or an economic position that you're shipping empty cans all over the world.

Speaker 5

Sure. All right. Thanks a lot. Thank you.

Speaker 0

And up next, we'll take a question from Kyle White with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Speaker 6

Hey, good morning. Thanks for taking the question. I wanted to go to the Brazil capacity expansion plan. I guess, correct me if I'm wrong, I thought initially you were planning to bring up the greenfield plant in the Southeast this year with the additional line in Jakarai not coming up until 2023. Since I switched those two items, is that because of the weaker weather, the economy, or what's kind of the reasoning for that?

Speaker 1

No. Actually, we did that. Yeah. Maybe we I thought we flagged it in the Q3. So we actually took that decision six, nine months ago.

And it's not actually what we actually did was we did Jack Ray as planned in 2021. And what we pulled forward was actually an investment in Alagoonas, which is our plant in the Northeast, where we're putting a Line three onto an existing facility. And we actually had that in the plan, but after the greenfield and we just switched them. So we pulled forward Line three because it was a more straightforward project. You know, we had some time delays in getting hold of land.

And so we pulled forward the Line three project and upscaled it in fact, for 2022 and pushed the greenfield back into the second half of twenty twenty three. So that was a decision we already took before there was any issues in the market. And we're looking at the market situation, but obviously, we remain confident about the long term prospects for Brazil.

Speaker 6

Okay. Got it. And then in Europe, are you able to give us a sense of where you're at from a price cost standpoint in terms of what headwind you're expecting for 2022 from higher input costs and the higher energy costs? And then any kind of strategy or proactiveness you can do to kind of recover those costs?

Speaker 1

Yes. So in the $20,000,000 that we flagged has changed on our 2022 guidance after the FX is a mix of bad inflation lag, the Brazil softness and some project issues in The UK and The U. S. In the first quarter. So it's a part of that $20,000,000 have been very proactive already about that with customers.

We've had a lot of very positive dialogue with customers about things like the magnesium costs that have been coming into the supply chain and other exceptional costs. So I think that's been going very well. Some of those recovery efforts won't hit the P and L until later in the year. But overall, yes, we are being very proactive around that to make in partnership with our customers to make sure we share some of what's coming down the supply chain in terms of additional costs. And particularly with the volatility of today's environment, it's critical that we work on that in partnership with our customers.

Speaker 6

Got it. Thank you. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 0

All right. And our next question will come from Gabe Hait with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

David, good morning. First, wanted to point of clarification. Did I hear you say you'd be spending $1,000,000,000 on the business expansion plan this year, so sort of implying $1,100,000,000 of total spend. And then I guess congruent with that, as we roll out into 2023 and think about your leverage target and what that implies for potential capital return, I'm coming up with a $650,000,000 plus figure. Should we assume that there's potential for either increased spending or another, I'll call it, special dividend, if that's the case?

Speaker 1

Yes, Gevula, we're probably not going to give guidance on the 2023 dividend today, but we were clear that it's progressive from the 400. We are evaluating other investment opportunities. I think we've signaled very clearly that we think the market remains attractive, that the investments we do are highly value creative cash generating. And so we are evaluating other opportunities. I think this year, we are slightly over CHF €1,000,000,000 of business growth investments, so you're right with the maintenance, that's another €100.110 euros on top.

So those numbers are correct. So yes, look, progressive dividend was clearly what we're saying, but we are also evaluating additional investment opportunities in line with the $1,400,000,000 that we laid out in the SPAC process.

Speaker 7

Okay. Thank you. And then I guess appreciating that some of the inflation that we're seeing today might be somewhat transitory. Has there been any inbounds or discussions around the absolute cost of the can relative to maybe competing substrates given where LME aluminum is plus premium? I mean, I think it's probably $07 to $8 just on the cost raw material costs, let alone conversion.

Just curious how customers are thinking about Yes.

Speaker 1

I mean, absolutely no feedback that there's substitution occurring because of that. In fact, as we say, in most of the inbound conversations about strengthening demand. And I think that's because, Gabe, it's we're not alone. Right? I mean, every substrate at the moment has its challenges, whether it's LME or energy or, you know, the cost of recycled material or oil prices.

So, you know, I think that everybody's suffering just like everything is suffering from this inflationary environment, and therefore, it's not that the can is particularly standing out in the mix. And then the advantage of the can are definitely, from what we can see standing out in the mix in terms of convenience, sustainability, the efficiency through the supply chain, which is very important when you have these very high freight costs. So yes, no negativity there, only positivity from what we can see. Okay. Thank you.

Speaker 5

Thanks, Ben.

Speaker 0

Our next question will come from Paul Brennan with GoldenTree. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Hi. Thanks for the call. Could you provide some color on your hedging policy for energy costs and and and to what extent you're exposed to jumping gas prices we're seeing in in Europe this week?

Speaker 1

Yes. So I mean, we don't take risk on energy is the policy. So we have a rolling hedging program that comes into the year, you know, typically 75%, 80% hedged. So we have some exposure in the running year. I think in the case of very, very exceptional costs, we would again have to talk to customers in the spirit of partnership.

But overall, at this point, it's very hard to know. I mean, clearly, we're in day one of a completely unusual situation and we don't really know where that's going to land. So at the moment, we're in a typical place for our risk management. It's a small percentage of our costs. I mean, it's low single digits of, of our overall cost base, and we're gonna have to see how the situation evolves over the next few weeks.

Speaker 5

Thanks.

Speaker 1

Thanks, Paul.

Speaker 0

Alright. And we're moving on to Curt Woodworth with Credit Suisse. Please go ahead with your question.

Speaker 8

Yeah. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Was just hoping you could provide a little bit more color on kind of the 1Q guide. I mean if we look at the business performance the last two quarters, you put up incredibly strong EBITDA growth in the case of third quarter on negative volume.

To be flat on EBITDA, it appears somewhat conservative. Is there anything kind of specific to 1Q? I know you kind of called out maybe more acute inflation pressure and some of the start up costs, but just any more color on 1Q would be helpful.

Speaker 1

Yes, sure. I mean, I think the three things we're calling out is the softness in the Brazilian market, which we see persisting through Q1. We call that the inflation lag in Europe, which we see landing also firmly in Q1 with some recovery later in the year. And then the third thing, we had a couple of bumps, project bumps over the Christmas New Year period in The UK caused by COVID. So the Omicron wave came just as we were starting up the project, which meant we couldn't get engineers in.

And we have a couple of equipment pieces in North Carolina that, again, because of COVID and some subcontracting didn't come in at the quality level they needed to and had to be reworked. So we do see that impacting Q1 Americas, which is where North America where we had some offsets in previous quarters. So yes, I think we're just recognizing that those three factors that we're calling out on the full year guidance weigh more heavily on Q1 and then we see recovery in all three of those factors through the year.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then with with respect to to Europe, there's been more discussion in terms of can sheet availability getting tired, can sheet pricing going up. You know, one of your peers has kinda highlighted a a mismatch between pricing and when, you know, that cost flow through. So, you know, can you give us any more color on, I guess, a, your confidence in that you will have enough can sheet availability to ramp your business? And then with Europe, how should we think about the 10% volume growth translating into EBITDA growth given all the moving pieces between costs and start up costs and things like that?

Speaker 1

Yes. No, I mean, there's no question that can sheet North America, Europe is tight. And what we're seeing to address that is imports coming in from regions which are less tight and the industry has geared up around that significantly in recent years and has, you know, some good processes and procedures and some suppliers from other regions that used to that now. And there are specific sort of hotspots, you know, in certain specs and alloys that we're managing through. But if we take it in the round, we've done a lot of work on this in the last year to underpin growth program, and we're pretty comfortable that we've got that covered.

We don't see, you know, a particular mismatch there in next few years. Obviously, are seeing PPI rates rise in Europe, which is what, you know, will then help address that price cost mismatch because most of our contracts are on general PPI pass through. So I think the way the inflation curve has gone in Europe in the last six to nine months is addressing some of those issues and we therefore don't see a big difference between our volume growth and our EBITDA growth when we look at the figures for this year and the years beyond.

Speaker 8

Okay. And then just clarification on the capital return. So you said the $400,000,000 is progressive and that you would look to, I guess, scale in the line with growth. So is it is the expectation that, you know, you you would have you would continue to to return, you know, beyond 400,000,000 into into '23? Because you also had a comment that, you know, you wouldn't really say whether you'd have another, you know, onetime dividend as opposed to worth the basis.

So it it seems like what you're saying is you would. I just wanna kinda clarify how you're thinking about capital return into '23.

Speaker 1

No. Absolutely. That's what we're saying that it's progressive annual returns, you know, from the 400,000,000 this year. So, yeah, you've interpreted it correctly.

Speaker 5

Great. Thank you. Thank you.

Speaker 0

All right. And our next question will come from with Brahman Capital. Please go ahead.

Speaker 9

Hi. Another question on the DIV. Just to understand in terms of what the growth outlook might be philosophically, if you grow EBITDA by $200,000,000 in 2023 and you keep the leverage at 4x, conceptually, can we think about $800,000,000 of capacity?

Speaker 1

Yes. Hi, Ari. I think we're not going to give exact guidance at all, but it's not a linear thing. We're obviously going to be evaluating it as we go versus our overall investment program and the cash return to the business. So I think today, we're sticking with what we said, which is it's starting at 400,000,000 It's going to be progressive.

When we say in line, we don't mean sort of straight line. We just mean in line with business growth and cash flow delivery. But obviously, it's very significant returns and we think shareholders will be very pleased with that balance of cash return and growth as we've said.

Speaker 9

It seems very significant. Seems like if you look at a few years, you could potentially get a third of the cap back through dividends, plus the actual free cash that you'll generate a couple of years out. So thank you.

Speaker 1

No. That's so, Joanne, I think it's absolutely right to to dwell on the the cash flow generation of the business. It is very high high cash flow generation, particularly when these projects come online.

Speaker 0

All right. And we'll take a follow-up question from George Staphos with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Speaker 2

Thanks very much for taking the follow-up. Hi guys, just a quick one on the machinery side. It didn't sound like you're terribly concerned about the machinery outlook and your ability to underwrite your growth plans through 2024. You did have a couple of COVID related issues, it sounds like, in the fourth quarter. Can you give us a bit more detail in terms of why you feel good about your where you stand in line in terms of getting all the equipment, having the engineers in place?

Any color around that would be very helpful. And then from that, I'll turn it over. Thanks very much.

Speaker 1

Thanks, George. Yes, look, I think sort of working backwards through that, I think in terms of engineers and the support structures, we've invested a lot in that. We saw this coming when we first put the growth program together in the summer of twenty twenty. And so we have overinvested in those structures and support, particularly in North America, where obviously the ramp up was particularly rapid. On equipment, you know, think fortunately, we've got some great suppliers and some great relationships with them.

And, you know, as one of the big three, I think, you know, we recognize that they're supporting us and we're supporting them. And so we've not had major issues there. We do have specific issues on specific projects and there are some delays emerging in certain areas. But overall, if we look at the capital program, we remain where we were, which is it's overall on track through to 2024. And as you say, we just had some very specific issues on the turn of the year, very linked to COVID.

So if any luck, we're through some of that, then we don't see anything in the program that should materially disrupt us.

Speaker 2

Hey, Oliver. Just a quick follow on that. You said delays in certain areas. I assume that's just, The UK and and the Carolina that you're referring to.

Speaker 1

Exactly. Yes, the two I mentioned, so The UK and North Carolina.

Speaker 2

And do you have a dedicated project management group within the organization now? Or do you tend to contract that out? Thanks, guys. I'll turn it over.

Speaker 1

We do both. So we have dedicated project management groups in each region. We also have some global oversight and global management. And then we also contract out specific parts of the project to very experienced third party contractors. So we do a bit of both to get the best of both worlds.

Speaker 2

Thank you very much.

Speaker 1

Thank you.

Speaker 0

All right. And we'll now take a follow-up question from Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Speaker 7

Thank you, guys. Just one, and appreciate it's it's early in the year, but, you know, you guys were kinda able to to hit your figures for 2021 with some of the puts and takes, obviously, with respect to Brazil slowing down a little bit, etcetera. Could you maybe tell us how you feel? Or I guess, is there any contingency, if you will, built into 2022 as you sit today to say, oh, if we have some hiccups or more hiccups in in in over the course of the year with getting equipment in, or inflation continues to ramp higher. And again, I mean, obviously, today is a little bit of a volatile day, but just anything that you would give us in terms of guideposts if that's you feel conservative today or maybe a little bit of a stretch to hit

Speaker 1

that $775,000,000 Yes. Look, I think it is exactly what we said, right? It's in the order of $775,000,000 That's our best estimate today with the opportunities and risks we see in the business. And I think that's a fair picture. So yes, it is a volatile operating environment.

There's no question about that. It's got a lot more volatile today. But the business is very resilient to different conditions as we've seen through COVID. Typically in recession, the beverage can does relatively quite well and we have lots of strong relationships with customers and suppliers to help us navigate through. Look, I think the guidance is the guidance.

It's in the order of seven seventy five, and that's the balance of the opportunities and risks in the business.

Speaker 5

I appreciate that. Thanks. Thanks.

Speaker 0

And currently, we have no additional questions in the phone queue.

Speaker 1

Okay. Thanks, Orlando. Thank you very much, everyone. I appreciate your time. And we look forward to talking to you again in April.

Speaker 0

And ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today's call. We do thank you again for your participation. You may now disconnect.