Ardagh Metal Packaging - Q4 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Welcome to the Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A. Quarterly Results conference call. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Mr. Stephen Lyons, Head of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Stephen Lyons (Investor Relations Director)

Thank you, operator, and welcome, everybody. Thank you for joining today for Ardagh Metal Packaging's Fourth Quarter 2025 earnings call, which follows the earlier publication of AMP's earnings release for the fourth quarter and the full year. I'm joined today by Oliver Graham, AMP's Chief Executive Officer, and Stefan Schellinger, AMP's Chief Financial Officer. Before moving to your questions, we will first provide some introductory remarks around AMP's performance and outlook. AMP's earnings release and related materials for the fourth quarter can be found on AMP's website at ardaghmetalpackaging.com/investors. Remarks today will include certain forward-looking statements and include use of non-IFRS financial measures. Actual results could vary materially from such statements. Please review the details of AMP's forward-looking statements disclaimer and reconciliation of non-IFRS financial measures to IFRS financial measures in AMP's earnings release. I will now turn the call over to Oliver Graham.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks, Stephen. 2025 was another year of strong performance for AMP, underpinned by shipments growth of over 3%, a favorable product mix, and solid operational delivery. Our performance drove year-over-year Adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%, which significantly exceeded our initial guidance. Our tight focus on cost control generated meaningful operational and overhead cost savings in the year. Our teams navigated the complexity of evolving demand patterns, both in terms of category mix and can sizes, to position our customers' growth. From a balance sheet perspective, we ended the year in a robust position with nearly $1 billion of liquidity. In the fourth quarter, we successfully raised $1.3 billion of green bonds, which Stefan will talk about in further detail later.

Our strong performance in the Americas was driven by significant growth in North America, volumes of 6% for the full year, and favorable mix through the high-growth energy drinks category, which more than offset the impact of softness in the Brazilian beer industry. In terms of European performance, operations and overhead cost savings, as well as shipment growth in carbonated soft drinks and other growing categories, offset the anticipated metal input cost headwind. In each of our regions, the beverage can continues to take share from other packaging substrates, advantaged by the can's convenience, branding potential, total cost of ownership, and sustainability credentials. This supports a continued positive outlook for global industry growth. Turning to AMP's Q4 results by segment.

In Europe, fourth quarter revenue decreased by 1% to $539 million, or by 6% on a constant currency basis compared with the same period in 2024, principally due to the impact of a negative IFRS 15 contract asset, partly offset by favorable volume mix effects and the pass-through of higher input costs to customers. Shipments grew by 1% for the quarter, with good growth in carbonated soft drinks and across our diverse range of growing categories, as well as in the energy category. This was offset by a decline in beer shipments, which reflected a weaker industry backdrop, as well as strong shipments in the prior year. For the full year, Europe shipments grew by 2%, with growth in non-alcoholic beverages offsetting a flat performance in beer shipments.

Indeed, the broad-based gains across growing categories such as ready-to-drink teas and coffees, canned wines, water, and juices is testament to the ongoing innovation in the European beverage can market and to AMP's success in supporting this growth. We expect this growth to continue, helping to further diversify AMP's portfolio. Fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA in Europe increased by 14% versus the prior year to $64 million, ahead of expectations. On a constant currency basis, Adjusted EBITDA increased by 8%, principally due to higher input cost recovery, which included a positive benefit from metal timing effects and favorable volume mix, partly offset by higher operations and overhead costs. Full-year Adjusted EBITDA of $272 million further underlines the region's improving profitability. In 2026, we expect to grow volumes by around 3% in Europe, broadly in line with industry growth.

Capacity remains tight in the region, and we are therefore optimizing our network to better serve higher-demand can sizes for faster-growing categories. We continue to review opportunities to support our customer growth, and we are progressing plans to add additional capacity in the attractive markets of Spain and the U.K. on a measured basis over the coming years. Both projects will add capacity into existing facilities, with the related moderate increase in capital expenditure to be spread across financial years. These projects are underpinned by our favorable market positions and our confidence in Europe's growth outlook, supported by the can's low penetration rate, its attractive sustainability credentials, and the previously mentioned innovation trends.

Beverage packaging scanner data across each of the markets in which we operate highlighted several percentage points of share gain in 2025 for the beverage can versus glass in the beer category and versus plastic in carbonated soft drink. In the Americas, revenue in the fourth quarter increased by 24% to $807 million, which reflected the pass-through of higher input cost to customers, including the impact of the higher Midwest Premium in North America, as well as shipments growth. Americas Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was ahead of expectations, with a 6% decrease versus the prior year to $102 million, due to higher operations and overhead costs and lower input cost recovery, partly offset by favorable volume mix effects.

In North America, shipments increased by 9% for the quarter, despite the company having to navigate some supply chain disruption. For the full year, AMP shipments grew by 6%. AMP's strong growth and outperformance in the year versus the market reflects our favorable customer and category portfolio mix, weighted towards non-alcoholic beverages, and in particular, our exposure to the high-growth energy category that represented 16% of our North America sales last year. Sparkling water is another notable category that performed well, which represented 11% of our portfolio. By contrast, beer represented only a mid-single digit % of our portfolio. Looking into 2026, we expect industry growth of a low single digit %. As previously indicated on our third quarter results conference call, we expect some softness in North America for AMP following some contract resets, largely related to specific footprint situations.

We anticipate 2026 being a transition year with a small volume decline before we expect to return to growth in 2027, at least in line with the industry, on the back of additional contracted filling locations and our attractive portfolio. Retail scanner data so far this year is encouraging for continued beverage can industry growth into 2026. We would note that during the first quarter, some of AMP's and our customers' operations were negatively impacted by extreme adverse weather, which we assume we recovered during the quarter. We also continued to manage a tight metal supply situation after disruptions in one of our major suppliers' rolling mill facilities. This is causing operational challenges, and we incurred additional costs in Q4, which we anticipate will persist through the first half of the year, ahead of the restoration of capacity as well as the ramp-up of new domestic supply.

In Brazil, fourth quarter beverage can shipments decreased by 4%, which represented a sequential improvement versus the third quarter, but lacked the improvement in industry performance due to customer mix. Full year shipments declined by 2%, in line with a weak overall industry volume, reflecting consumer weakness and adverse weather during the winter months. Encouraging the industry data confirms that the beverage can gained an additional couple of percentage points of share in the beer packaging mix in 2025, in line with long-term trends. Looking into 2026, we expect industry growth of a low to mid single digit % and for AMP's volumes to broadly track the market. I'll hand over now to Stefan to talk you through our financial position for the quarter before finishing with some concluding remarks.

Stefan Schellinger (CFO)

Thanks, Ollie. We ended the year with a robust liquidity position of $964 million and net leverage of 5.3x net debt to Adjusted EBITDA. The expected increase in the net leverage metric reflects the impact of a successful $1.3 billion equivalent green bond financing, which we closed in December. As a reminder, the proceeds of the financing were used to repay $600 million of notes due in June 2027, to repay the senior secured term loan of EUR 269 million, and to redeem the preferred shares of EUR 250 million. The headline leverage metric has increased as a result of the financing, and the redemption of the preferred shares with debt.

This refinancing has provided several benefits, including the lengthening of AMP's debt maturities, with no bonds now maturing before September 2028, simplification of the capital structure, and an annual cash savings of approximately $10 million, as the higher annual cash interest is more than offset by savings related to the previous annual preferred share dividend payments of approximately $25 million. We generated Adjusted Free Cash Flow for 2025 of $172 million, which was ahead of our guidance. During the quarter, both S&P and Fitch took positive credit rating action, which reflects AMP's strong operation and financial performance. In terms of 2026, we approximately expect the following for the various components of Free Cash Flow.

Total CapEx of slightly above $200 million, including growth investments, lease principal repayments of approximately $150 million, cash interest of circa $220 million, cash tax of a little bit over $30 million, and a smaller outflow in working capital. Finally, today, we have announced our unchanged quarterly ordinary dividend of $0.10 per share. With that, I'll hand it back to Ollie.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks, Stefan. Just before moving to take your questions, I'll just recap on AMP's performance and some key messages. Firstly, Adjusted EBITDA of $166 million in the fourth quarter exceeded our guidance range of $147 million-$162 million, with both segments performing ahead of expectations. Secondly, full year Adjusted EBITDA of $739 million was significantly ahead of our initially projected $675 million-$695 million range, and this was largely driven by strong volume performance and favorable customer mix in North America, as well as favorable currency movements. Finally, the beverage can continues to outperform other substrates in our customers' packaging mix, supporting our growth. For 2026, we're guiding Adjusted EBITDA in a range of $750 million-$775 million.

Adjusted EBITDA growth is expected to be driven by operational efficiencies and cost savings, shipments growth in line with industry growth in Europe and Brazil, and improved category mix. We view 2026 as a transition year in North America for volumes, ahead of an expected return to growth, at least in line with the industry in 2027. In terms of guidance for the first quarter, Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $160 million-$170 million, ahead of the prior year quarter of $160 million on a constant currency basis. Having made these opening remarks, we'll now proceed to take any questions that you may have.

Operator (participant)

... Thank you. If you are dialed in via the telephone and would like to ask a question, please signal by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. If you are using a speakerphone, please make sure your mute function is turned off to allow your signal to reach our equipment. Again, press star one to ask a question. We'll take our first question from Matt Roberts with Raymond James.

Matt Roberts (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, Ollie, Stefan, good morning. Thank you for taking the questions. The first question, maybe on the 1Q guide, can you just talk about some of the volume trends by region that underpin that, what you've seen in the first two months of the year, any impacts you've seen from weather in the U.S., either in regard to facility outages or natural gas impacts or volume impacts at customers?

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Sure. Hi, Matt. Yeah, if we take it region by region, I think, North America's had a very good start to the year in our portfolio, with some key customers. It is true that January suffered, particularly in the last week, with the weather effects in the south of the country, where we saw some of our facilities and some of our customer facilities unable to ship product. We did see some reduction in what we expected for January. February and March are looking like they're tracking in line or even slightly better, though we are, as we mentioned, navigating this quite challenging metal supply chain situation. I think we're in line, and scanner trends look good.

The energy category is still very strong, and we're certainly seeing that in our portfolio. That's obviously very beneficial for mix, again, within our profit performance. Brazil, the market started in good shape. I think, you know, 2%-3% in January for the industry. That followed a 4% Q4 performance for the industry. A good recovery actually, as we came into the summer season after the weakness, you know, in the middle of last year. We're, you know, currently tracking ahead of that with some good customer mix. Yeah, we're very positive about Q1 performance in Brazil. Europe's exactly where we saw it. I think the industry is growing, you know, broadly where we, where we saw it. We're in line with our forecast.

We had a very strong Q1 last year. We see our growth being a bit second half-weighted in Europe this year, but again, we see the industry exactly where we expected it. You know, if you take that all in the round, I think, you know, some very positive trends. We see no negative signs of the higher aluminum costs at the moment, which I know has been commented on quite broadly, but we certainly don't see that in our numbers or in the industry numbers at the moment, you know, all very positive from our point of view.

Matt Roberts (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you, Ollie. I appreciate that. Maybe on the capacity as you discussed in Europe, it seemed like Spain, I think we previously discussed that last call. It seemed like U.K. might be incremental, but any additional color you could provide on the timing of when that capacity is expected to start to ramp, any startup costs and the related CapEx expected in 2026 or 2027, depending on the timing there? In, in Europe, more broadly, I mean, some others seem to be adding in similar regions, so seems like demand is still humming along there, but how does all the capacity inform your, you know, supply-demand model there?

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah, look, it feels very tight. The market at the moment, I think we think it's running, you know, potentially even in the high 90s, utilization as an industry. You've seen, you know, our peers', volume performance at the back end of last year and for the full year, and we also had a decent year, despite some weakness in our beer portfolio. I think the industry backdrop is highly constructive, and you're talking about a market now of nearly 100 billion cans. You know, so if it grows 3%-5%, you know, it's a couple of can plants a year that are needed. And we certainly see shortages on specific sizes, you know, right across the continent and in certain regional pockets. I think the backdrop's very constructive. We have a strong position.

We particularly have strong positions in those markets, and we have customers who are looking to grow and who need our support. I think it, you know, is broadly in line with our share position. We're adding this kind of capacity with a line in each of those facilities. You know, it's over the next two years or so, you know, some possibly into the 3rd year with the CapEx spread across that period, and I think we signaled a moderate increase to our overall capital guide for this year. You know, you can think of that as around, you know, 10% as an increase, not, you know, not very material, to be honest, as we already have some under growth capex in this year.

Yeah, we regard these as very good projects, in, you know, in a, in a very constructive market environment.

Matt Roberts (Equity Research Analyst)

Excellent. Thank you again, Ollie.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks, Matt.

Operator (participant)

We'll go next to Josh Spector with UBS.

Anojja Shah (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, good morning. It's Anojja Shah sitting in for Josh. That you reported some pretty good pickup in Brazil there. What are you thinking around World Cup for this year? You know, what kind of pickup, if any, and when exactly you think it might hit?

Oliver Graham (CEO)

I mean, I think once we're in a low to mid guide, I think, you know, we see that as broadly incorporating, you know, the World Cup effect. Maybe it pushes more towards the mid. Obviously, Brazil can move very fast, you know, across the growth trajectory. We've seen it over the last few years. Obviously, if Brazil go deep into the tournament, and the weather's, you know, reasonable, we could see some pickup. I think we're comfortable with the sort of 3%-5% guide to the market, and that we're in line with that. I think that should be constructive in, obviously, in the winter season, which is, it's helpful, we should see some good comps versus what was a pretty weak winter season last year.

When do you get it? Yeah, you get it in the, in the months running into the tournament. Obviously, there'll be some inventory build, and then we'd expect to see some sell-through as the tournament goes. You'd expect to see it in Q2, pretty much.

Anojja Shah (Equity Research Analyst)

Right. Okay, thank you. You also, in North America, I think you did have a comment in the press release about lower input cost recovery in North America. What is that exactly? Is it stuff besides aluminum and tariffs and things that are an immediate passthrough? Like, is it a PPI sort of index, where it's a once-a-year passthrough? Any outlook on that...?

Stefan Schellinger (CFO)

Yeah. Look, I think we referred to some supply chain challenges and operational challenges relative to the metal situation. That then triggers, you know, some operational actions. You know, we need to do shorter runs. We need to move volume within our manufacturing network. You know, some of the freight lanes get suboptimal. It's a little bit of non-recovered freight and a little bit of non-recovered costs associated with those. Let's say a knock-on effect of those supply chain metal disruption causing operational disruption.

Anojja Shah (Equity Research Analyst)

It does sound like that might persist through the first half then, of this year. Is that right?

Stefan Schellinger (CFO)

Yeah, I think that's a fair assumption.

Anojja Shah (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thank you. I'll turn it over.

Stefan Schellinger (CFO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

We'll go next to Stefan Diaz with Morgan Stanley.

Stefan Diaz (VP of Equity Research)

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my questions. Maybe just piggybacking off that last question, at the same time, you also noted in the release, some operational efficiencies and other savings that you expect in, 2026. Can you just give some details on, you know, the potential sizing and benefits and, whether these improvements are, in any specific regions? Or if these improvements are just maybe, you know, some of these operational challenges kind of just falling off?

Oliver Graham (CEO)

No, I think that, every year, we obviously make operational improvements and savings right across our network or regions, you know, so they're the normal things like weighting the can, improving, you know, reducing spoilage, implementing our production system across our plants to drive best practice and lean activity. I think, you know, we're just citing the fact that those savings are being delivered. We have set some, you know, challenging targets this year, but we expect to be able to deliver them, and that obviously, that offsets some of the slight volume weakness we have in the North American business. I think it's more a general comment right across the business.

Stefan Diaz (VP of Equity Research)

Okay, great. That's helpful. You know, it's been a few months since the Ardagh Group restructuring. Do you have any updates for us there? I know in the release you said, you know, no changes to capital allocation, but any potential changes in strategy, just given that?

Oliver Graham (CEO)

No, absolutely not. I think, you know, I think AMP's got a good strategy. It's been working. You know, you've seen the delivery in 2024 and 2025, and the guidance we're giving for 2026, and you've seen our performance in various markets and, you know, the drop-through into our profitability last year relative to our volume growth. I certainly don't think anyone wants us to change strategy. At the minute, as we've signaled, you know, capital allocation policy not changing either. I don't think there's anything to see, you know, to see here in terms of changes since the restructuring transaction.

Stefan Diaz (VP of Equity Research)

Thanks, Ollie.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks.

Operator (participant)

We'll go next to Anthony Pettinari with Citi.

Bryan Burgmeier (Equity Research Analyst)

Good morning, this is actually Bryan Burgmeier filling in for Anthony. Thanks for taking the question. I appreciate the detail on slide eight on the share gain in Europe that, you know, the can has realized over the last year. Are you able to maybe provide a sense of how penetrated the can is in Europe and maybe beer and soft drinks relative to North America, just as we kind of think about kind of the room to run for future share gain in Europe?

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah, much less penetrated, right? I mean, I think that's one of the arguments why there is a long way to run. You know, I think we think the can is 40%, 50% penetrated in North America. U.K. is the most penetrated European market, sort of approaches those levels a bit less. You know, Germany's, you know, a quarter of that. We've got a long way to run. The German situation was very specific with, you know, a very poor, poorly designed deposit scheme implemented in 2003, with no return path for the can. Can was essentially delisted out of retail overnight and has been on a long recovery ever since.

You know, the German can market can grow 10% in the year, and for example, last year there was a 20% growth number for German soft drinks in cans. You know, pretty dramatic numbers for a, you know, staple packaging product. Yeah, and we see, you know, the U.K. very strong last year, showing many of the similar trends as the U.S., with a lot of innovation going into the can and pretty strong anti-plastic sentiment. Obviously, glasses have had difficulties the last few years with the high energy costs, and then the can also really demonstrating a lot of sustainability credentials with very high recycling rates, high recycled content, and a pathway to a significant decarbonization through the measures the industry is taking right through the value chain.

I think you add all those things together, and you get a strong set of prospects, and the penetration rate just illustrates, it illustrates one of them. I think if you look at the growth rates, you know, we and our peers have posted for the last few years, and the, you know, the projections we're all giving, it is clearly a very constructive backdrop, the European can market.

Bryan Burgmeier (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, got it. Got it. Appreciate that. Just last question for me, and I can turn it over, is, I'm not sure if we're expecting any more kind of incremental headwinds in Europe from the aluminum conversion costs or maybe any PPI pass-throughs, and, you know, if we are, can you maybe provide a little detail if those are gonna be better or worse on a year-over-year basis, compared to last year? Thanks. I'll turn it over.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah, no, I think we are through that. I think that was really a predominantly a 2025 issue. We don't expect a material headwind in that regard.

Operator (participant)

We'll connect to Mike Roxland with Truist Securities.

Mike Roxland (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Yeah. Thanks, Ollie, Stefan, and Stephen for taking my questions. Ali, you mentioned a couple of times this is a transition year for the company, especially in North America. Seems like you lost a little bit of share to peers, you're gaining some new filling locations in 2027. To the extent you can comment on this forum, you know, what end markets are those new filling locations occurring in? Are they with existing customers? Are they with new customers? Can you give us a sense also how your contract did roughly for 2028?

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Sure, yeah. Hi, Mike. Look, I think those filling locations are broadly in line with our portfolio, you know, weighted more towards the soft drink side of the house, you know, like our portfolio. Those are principally those. There is some in beer, you know, in specialty sizes, which I think is obviously where we want to be. Yeah, entirely with existing customers. These are, you know, very long-term relationships where, you know, the quality of the customer service and the relationship is driving those gains. I think, you know, it is only a transition here really in North America. I think, you know, Europe and Brazil, you know, pretty straightforwardly just tracking alongside the market.

Mike Roxland (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it. Then just, you know, for 2028, any early read just in terms of how you think volumes?

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah. I mean, we and our peers have commented on this, but we went through sort of significant contractual events in some of the big customers in 2024, 2025. We're very heavily contracted now, you know, through the next few years into the end of the decade, and I think that's been commonly commented on in the industry.

Mike Roxland (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it. That's very helpful, Ollie. Thanks. Just one quick one. Last quarter, you may have mentioned this before, and if you did, I apologize. Last quarter, you mentioned being tight in certain specialty sizes in Europe caused you some growth last year. You cited doing your intent to do some projects, 4Q into 1Q, that give you additional capabilities for specialty. Where do those project stands, stand right now? Do you know that, you know, is well, where the project stand, you know, can you advise what capital is involved in doing that? Are you in a position where you're not gonna lose additional share because you have the functionality now in specialty to meet your customer needs? Thank you.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks, Mike. Yeah, good question. Yeah, the project, it's in our plant in France, gone very well. Ramping up again ahead of expectations, giving us, yeah, more specialty capability and different specialty capability and better regional alignment of supplies to also reduce freight, reduce out-of-pattern freight. I think that's going well, and yes, we'd be hopeful that that positions us well for the coming season. It's clear those trends are continuing in Europe, you know, a bit like North America with the specialty sizes growing. We think, yeah, that puts us in a better position for this year for sure.

Mike Roxland (Managing Director of Equity Research)

Got it. Good luck in 2026.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks a lot.

Operator (participant)

We'll go next to Arun Viswanathan with RBC Capital Markets.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Great. Thanks for taking my question. Congrats on a strong 2025 and an outlook for 2026. I guess just on the, on the outlook, it sounds like there are some customer mix issues that would maybe push you to the lower end versus industry growth. Also, you know, would you highlight anything else there? Are you pretty much sold out as well as maybe some of your competitors are? I guess I'll start with that. Thanks.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah, no, that, if we've managed to convey that message, that's a misunderstanding. We definitely have no mix issues. We have mix gains, I think. It's, so it's only North America, but I think we signaled it at the Q3 call, that there were some contract resets that meant we have an overall volume reduction. You know, actually not really in specialty sizes, mostly. Largely linked to some footprint changes in the market. That's footprint on the side of our customers who were, you know, rationalizing filling locations, but also footprint as a result of new can plants that were built post-COVID, and also footprint from contracts that we had entered into in the expectation of building additional capacity that when the growth came off in 2022, 2023, we didn't build.

When you added all that up, there was some logical resets in terms of facilities that were closer to the new customer footprint. That was an overall volume effect, only North America, nothing to do with Europe or Brazil. I think what we were trying to signal in the remarks and in the release is that we see positive mix effects in 2026 to offset some of that.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, thanks. Just a question on the metal side. Obviously, the Midwest Premium is up significantly. Do you see that as potentially impacting can demand? I know there's been, you know, some substrate shift away from other substrates, including glass, as you noted. Is there, are we approaching maybe a ceiling on that, just given, you know, some of this increase in the Midwest Premium? Do you see that kind of changing or maybe even reversing at any time in the future, given, you know, volatile tariff dynamics? Thanks.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah, we'd certainly hope it changes, because it's very extreme and it, you know, it doesn't make any sense, in terms of, obviously, the aluminum supply chain. So yeah, we'd certainly hope that it comes back into normal ranges at some point in the future. Yeah, I mean, I think that I mentioned it at the top of the call. We're not seeing any change, you know, at this point. Obviously, customers and ourselves have hedges, you know, so we don't know exactly when people entered into hedges and when they roll off, so, you know, we wouldn't be able to sensibly rule out any impact from this.

At the minute, we don't see it, and again, there are some strong trends that are driving the growth, you know, in terms of the way innovation has gone into the can, the sort of retail shelf sets that have been put in place to accommodate that, the consumer reaction to cans versus plastic, some of the energy cost issues that we see and the overall cost issues we see on the glass side. I think, you know, there's some big trends behind the growth of the can as well, and obviously, there may be some headwind at some point from the high aluminum costs, but we're not seeing it in the data, we're not seeing it in the market data, and we're not seeing it in our sales at this point.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks for that. If I can just ask on Europe, you mentioned growing your capacity in the U.K. and Spain. What's kind of the timeline and, you know, what kind of impact should we expect that that could contribute to your overall growth? Thanks.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

We said look over the next few years, you know, we'll like we always do, those projects tend to cross a couple of calendar years, and so does the capex. Look, we're very tight, all we're really doing there is giving ourselves the capability to grow with the market or, you know, maybe a tick ahead, but broadly with the market. Again, you know, I think you've heard pretty consistent commentary that the European market broadly is in a 3%-4%. I think some of our peers would say 3%-5%. It depends a bit on geographic mix, category mix, if you're in that sort of range, and we expect to be, then, we need to be adding this kind of capacity on a, you know, reasonably regular basis.

Arun Viswanathan (Senior Equity Research Analyst)

Thanks.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks, Arun.

Operator (participant)

Another reminder to ask a question on today's call, that is star one on your telephone keypad. We'll go next to Gabe Hajde with Wells Fargo Securities.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, good morning, Ollie, Stefan.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Hey, Gabe.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

I may have misheard you, Ollie, and I apologize. Did you mention Q4 EBITDA in Europe was in fact better than planned on metal timing effects? Again, if I misheard you, I apologize. Does any of that carry over into the first half? The supply disruptions, just to be clear, it's basically isolated to some of the rolling mill issues that we're having. If you're willing to quantify maybe the hit that you had in Q4 2025, what you're embedding in for the first half of 2026, by our math, it'd be maybe $5 million-$8 million on the first half of 2026. A couple follow-ons.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

I mean, Gabe, I'll let Stefan comment, too, but I think that's reasonable, and the lower end of that range is sort of broadly where we saw Q4, I think. That's fair, I think, and obviously, you know, we're giving guidance, including these sorts of thinking. Then Europe, I think it was an aspect of Q4, but again, I'll let Stefan comment on that one, on the metal timing.

Stefan Schellinger (CFO)

Yeah, I think that's exactly right. We benefited from it, but it was not the entire EBITDA growth that was a result of metal timing.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

I don't think it's the particular impact in H1 this year, right? Which was the other Gabe question.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Yeah, I think it's, yeah.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, no carry over effect from metal timing in Europe, that was just isolated to Q4?

Stefan Schellinger (CFO)

Yeah, there's no material expectation.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Yeah.

Stefan Schellinger (CFO)

Yeah.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

I mean, it does depend, Gabe, as you know, a bit on what happens with LME and Midwest. Obviously we can't be absolutely certain because it depends a bit what happens, but there's nothing material in the, in the plan.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. I guess maybe to put a finer point, I mean, it sounds like we're talking about two additional lines, one in each plant in U.K., Spain, and traditional yield out of those is still something 1 billion-1.2 billion units.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

I think, I mean, we may start, you know, slightly shy of that, you know, as first phase, again, you know, the lines are pretty modular now, so you can go up in a couple of steps from, you know, slightly below $1 billion. Yeah, these are the kinds of ranges we'll be in.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. One clarification or point on cash flow. Stefan, I think you mentioned lease principal payments $150 this year, and that's up pretty materially from $111 in 2025. Is that sort of at a steady state at this point, or does that go up again maybe in 2026, 2027?

Stefan Schellinger (CFO)

No, to be clear, I said 115. Apologies if that wasn't clear, but it's 115, so it's $5 million higher than-

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay.

Stefan Schellinger (CFO)

what we've seen in 2025. That should be a number, you know, that should be relatively steady going forward.

Gabe Hajde (Equity Research Analyst)

Perfect. Thank you. That's it.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks, Gabe.

Operator (participant)

At this time, there are no further questions. I will now turn the call back to Oliver Graham for additional or closing remarks.

Oliver Graham (CEO)

Thanks, Jennifer. Just to recap, in 2025, we reported global shipments growth of over 3% and Adjusted EBITDA growth of 10%. We finished the year strongly, as fourth quarter Adjusted EBITDA exceeded our guidance, with both segments performing ahead of our expectations. We're looking forward to a good performance again in 2026 and are guiding for Adjusted EBITDA in the range of $750 million-$775 million. Thanks for your time today, and we look forward to talking to you again at our Q1 results.

Operator (participant)

This does conclude today's conference. We thank you for your participation.