Executive Summary

Q2 2025 Economic EPS was $5.39, up 15% year over year and above S&P Global consensus of $5.29; GAAP diluted EPS was $2.80 . EPS outperformance was driven by strong equity-method income ($65.6M vs $18.1M YoY) and share repurchases . S&P Global consensus: $5.2865 vs actual $5.39; beat. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Consolidated revenue was $493.2M, down 1.5% YoY and below consensus of $506.5M, reflecting ongoing outflows in long-only equities offset by record inflows into alternatives . S&P Global consensus: $506.4637M vs actual $493.2M; miss. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Net client cash flows were +$8.1B firmwide, with record inflows into alternatives; AUM rose to $771B (+10% YoY) .
Q3 2025 guidance: Adjusted EBITDA $230–$240M and Economic EPS $5.62–$5.87; management expects a step-up in 2026 as new partnerships contribute fully .
Catalysts: accelerating alternatives mix (55%+ of run‑rate EBITDA), four new 2025 partnerships (Montefiore, Verition, Qualitas Energy, NorthBridge), and continued buybacks ($~100M in Q2; ~$400M expected in 2025) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Record alternatives momentum: +$19B liquid alts inflows and $8B private markets fundraising in Q2; net client cash flows +$8.1B overall .
Strong equity-method income: $65.6M vs $18.1M YoY, supporting GAAP EPS and Economic EPS performance .
Strategic expansion: definitive agreement to partner with Montefiore (€5B AUM) further diversifies private markets; Verition investment closed in Q2 .

Selected quote (CEO): “We reported strong results with year over year growth of 15% in economic earnings per share and more than $8 billion in net client cash flows, driven by another record quarter of inflows into alternative strategies.”

What Went Wrong

Long-only equities headwinds: ~$11B outflows in active equities, reflecting industry and near-term performance pressure, contributing to revenue softness vs consensus .
Consolidated revenue declined YoY to $493.2M (from $500.3M), missing consensus; despite FRE growth, long-only outflows offset .
One-time affiliate equity modification expense of $30.5M included in “other economic items,” highlighting non-GAAP adjustments needed to normalize results .

Financial Results

Consolidated Results vs Prior Periods

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$524.2	$496.6	$493.2
Diluted EPS (GAAP) ($)	$4.92	$2.20	$2.80
Economic EPS ($)	$6.53	$5.20	$5.39
Adjusted EBITDA - Controlling Interest ($USD Millions)	$281.7	$228.2	$219.7

Notes: Economic EPS and Adjusted EBITDA are non-GAAP; reconciliations provided in company materials .

Results vs S&P Global Consensus (Q2 2025)

Metric	Consensus	Actual	Surprise
Primary EPS ($)	5.2865*	5.39	+$0.10; beat*
Revenue ($USD Millions)	506.4637*	493.2	-$13.3; miss*
EBITDA ($USD Millions)	218.9*	200.8*	-$18.1; miss*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Margins (Trajectory)

Metric	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Q2 2025
Net Income Margin (%)	30.92%*	14.58%*	17.09%*
EBITDA Margin (%)	34.01%*	16.69%*	40.71%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

KPIs and Operating Metrics (YoY)

Metric	Q2 2024	Q2 2025
AUM (period-end, $USD Billions)	$701.0	$771.0
Average AUM ($USD Billions)	693.1	736.6
Net Client Cash Flows ($USD Billions)	0.9	8.1
Aggregate Fees ($USD Millions)	1,098.1	1,173.5
Economic EPS ($)	4.67	5.39

AUM by Strategy – Quarter to Date (Q2 2025)

Strategy	Net Client Cash Flows ($B)	New Investments ($B)	Market Changes ($B)	FX ($B)	AUM at 6/30/2025 ($B)
Private Markets (Alternatives)	7.8	—	1.3	0.7	149.4
Liquid Alternatives	11.5	12.4	1.3	2.9	181.7
Equities (Differentiated Long-Only)	(10.5)	—	24.0	5.4	321.0
Multi-Asset & Fixed Income (Differentiated Long-Only)	(0.7)	—	3.8	1.1	118.9
Total	8.1	12.4	30.4	10.1	771.0

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Q2 2025	$210–$225	Actual $219.7	In range
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Q3 2025	—	$230–$240	Introduced (raised vs Q2 actual)
Economic EPS ($)	Q3 2025	—	$5.62–$5.87 (adj. diluted share count ~29.4M)	Introduced
Performance Fees (Net) ($M)	Q3 2025	—	Seasonably lower, up to $10	Introduced
Share Repurchases ($M)	FY 2025	~$400 expected	~$400 expected	Maintained
Dividend ($/share)	Q2 2025	$0.01	$0.01 (payable Aug 25, record Aug 11)	Maintained

Management also indicated expected step-up in 2026 Economic EPS from full-year contributions of new affiliates (Verition, Qualitas Energy, Montefiore, NorthBridge) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4’24 and Q1’25)	Current Period (Q2’25)	Trend
Alternatives mix shift	2024: Private markets raised ~$24B; Economic EPS +10% YoY; U.S. wealth platform >$6B alts AUM	Alternatives contribute >55% of run-rate EBITDA; +$33B YTD alternatives net inflows	Accelerating
Liquid alternatives (tax-aware)	Record Q1 inflows $10B; product innovation; Verition partnership announced	Nearly $12B net inflows; AQR tax-aware suite >$30B AUM; Flex series >$20B	Strong and building
Private markets fundraising	Q1 raised ~$3B; pipeline strong; partnerships (NorthBridge, Qualitas)	Q2 raised ~$8B; breadth across Pantheon, Comvest, Ara, EIG	Strengthening
U.S. wealth channel strategy	Vertically integrated platform; 6 alternative CO solutions; active ETFs initiatives	Continued collaboration; expanding product wrappers (mutual funds, SMAs, evergreen, drawdown, ETFs)	Scaling
Capital allocation	2024 buybacks $700M; Q1’25 $173M; $1.25B revolver undrawn	Q2’25 ~$100M buybacks; ~$400M FY repurchases expected; Peppertree proceeds ~$260M pre-tax	Ongoing
European macro/client allocation	Noted FX impacts; global strategies	No material Q2 impact; diversification across geographies; Montefiore partnership in EU	Watchful but stable

Management Commentary

CEO (Jay Horgen): “AMG has added approximately $55 billion in alternative assets under management… with a record $33 billion in net inflows into alternatives and four new partnerships… we anticipate a meaningful increase to our full year economic earnings per share in 2026.”
COO (Tom Wojcik): “Our strong net inflows into alternatives more than offset $11 billion in outflows in active equities… Private markets affiliates raised $8 billion… liquid alternatives generated nearly $12 billion in net inflows, driven primarily by tax-aware solutions.”
CFO (Dava Ritchea): “Adjusted EBITDA of $220M grew 1% YoY; FRE grew 4% YoY… Q3 EBITDA guidance $230–$240M including up to $10M net performance fees; Q3 Economic EPS $5.62–$5.87… We expect a step up in earnings for 2026.”

Q&A Highlights

Contribution drivers (AQR, Pantheon): Both expected to be double-digit contributors to 2025 earnings; AQR’s tax-aware solutions and performance fee potential; Pantheon leadership in secondaries and wealth channel semi-liquid funds (PPEX ~$$6B, credit/infrastructure launches) .
Capacity and moat for tax-aware strategies: AQR’s innovation, robust risk systems, first-mover advantage, diversified vehicles (separate accounts, LPs, mutual funds) with runway to scale .
Portfolio management and buybacks: AMG doesn’t “trade” affiliates; minority stakes can be exited when affiliates drive strategy (e.g., Peppertree); buybacks remain a flexible tool with ~$400M FY 2025 plan; liquidity and leverage capacity intact .
Private markets consistency: Broad-based fundraising across affiliates and strategies; mix shift to higher-fee, longer-duration assets improves EBITDA outlook .
European allocation flows: No material Q2 impact observed; diversification across EU-based affiliates positions AMG well (Montefiore, Qualitas) .

Estimates Context

Q2 2025: Economic EPS $5.39 vs S&P Global consensus $5.2865; consolidated revenue $493.2M vs $506.4637M consensus; EBITDA consensus $218.9M vs S&P “actual” $200.8M (note potential definition differences vs company “Adjusted EBITDA” $219.7M) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
of estimates: EPS (6), Revenue (4) for Q2 [GetEstimates]. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: Models should raise Economic EPS assumptions modestly (share count down, equity-method income strong), but trim consolidated revenue on long-only outflow sensitivity; ensure alignment of EBITDA definitions (company “Adjusted EBITDA” vs sell-side “EBITDA”) before concluding on EBITDA variance.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

Alternatives are now the core earnings engine: >55% of run-rate EBITDA from alternatives, with liquid alts tax-aware strategies and private markets secondaries driving sustained organic growth .
Q2 print: EPS beat (Economic EPS), revenue miss; equity-method income strength and buybacks offset long-only outflows; watch mix shift’s impact on FRE and performance fee optionality .
Q3 guide step-up and 2026 acceleration: Verition full-quarter in Q3; Qualitas and Montefiore expected to close by year-end; management telegraphs 2026 earnings step-up as new affiliates and carry accrue .
Capital returns and flexibility: ~~$400M FY buybacks expected; Peppertree proceeds (~~$260M pre-tax) enhance capacity; long-dated debt and $1.25B revolver support ongoing deployment .
Wealth channel platform is a differentiator: Product innovation (evergreen, semi-liquid, active ETFs) plus distribution capabilities are attracting sticky, higher-fee assets with performance fee potential .
Risk watch: Long-only equities outflows remain a headwind; monitor equity performance and market beta; ensure EBITDA comparability in models given non-GAAP adjustments including $30.5M one-time affiliate equity modification .
Trading lens: Near-term catalyst in alternatives inflow momentum and Q3 guidance; medium-term thesis on 2026 step-up as partnerships contribute fully and carry/performance fees scale .

Source documents

Q2 2025 press release and tables:
Q2 2025 8-K and Exhibit 99.1:
Q2 2025 earnings call transcript:
Prior quarters: Q1 2025 press release and call ; Q4 2024 press release
Montefiore/Verition/Qualitas/Peppertree releases:

S&P Global disclaimer: All consensus and estimate values marked with an asterisk are retrieved from S&P Global.

AFFILIATED MANAGERS GROUP, INC. (AMG)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary