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Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 delivered resilient operations amid commodity volatility: total revenues rose to $72.1M, Adjusted EBITDA was $19.4M, and average production was 17.9 MBoe/d; reported net loss was $(5.9)M driven by non-cash derivative losses .
  • Management deferred three Beta development projects (~$15M 2025 capex reduction) and lowered full‑year guidance (Adjusted EBITDA to $80–$110M; capex to $55–$70M) to preserve free cash flow and balance-sheet health .
  • Beta development remains a core value driver: the C54 well achieved IP20 ~800 Bopd (program’s strongest), with D‑Sand wells projected >90% IRR at $60 oil; Beta production up ~35% since early 2024 after offsetting base decline .
  • Portfolio optimization momentum: $7.8M Haynesville monetization in Q1 and another $1.5M in May; Magnify Energy Services contributed $0.9M Adjusted EBITDA in Q1 .
  • Consensus estimates from S&P Global for Q1 2025 were unavailable; comparisons vs Street are not possible. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable (consensus data gap).

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Strong Beta execution: “C54 well… IP20 was approximately 800 Bopd… strongest initial well performance in the program… D‑Sand completions… projected to have greater than 90% IRR at $60/bbl oil prices” .
  • Cost-focus and liquidity discipline: “temporarily defer three development projects at Beta resulting in capital savings of approximately $15 million… committed to maintaining strong free cash flow and a healthy balance sheet” .
  • Monetization success without losing upside: “monetized a portion of our undeveloped acreage with Haynesville rights… net proceeds of $7.8 million… retaining an interest in over 30 gross locations” .

What Went Wrong

  • Higher operating costs: Lease operating expense (“LOE”) increased to $37.4M ($23.28/Boe), reflecting first‑quarter seasonal drivers and asset-specific items; G&A per Boe also increased to $6.73 .
  • Volume headwinds: production dipped to 17.9 MBoe/d vs 18.5 MBoe/d in Q4 due to East Texas gas imbalance and adverse Oklahoma weather; temporary but impacted the quarter .
  • Non-cash derivative losses drove reported net loss: Unrealized commodity derivative loss of $14.8M contributed to GAAP net loss of $(5.9)M .

Financial Results

Multi-Period Summary (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenues (excl. hedges, $MM)$69.9 $69.0 $72.1
Net Income (Loss) ($MM)$22.7 $(7.4) $(5.9)
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)$25.5 $21.8 $19.4
Net Cash from Operating Activities ($MM)$15.7 $12.5 $25.5
Average Daily Production (MBoe/d)19.0 18.5 17.9

EPS and Adjusted Net Income (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Diluted EPS ($)$0.54 $(0.19) $(0.15)
Adjusted Net Income ($MM)$9.8 $5.1 $3.8

Unit Economics and Cost Structure (oldest → newest)

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Avg Sales Price (Total, $/Boe)$38.88 $39.37 $43.76
LOE ($/Boe)$18.98 $20.57 $23.28
GPT ($/Boe)$2.45 $2.62 $2.67
Taxes other than income ($/Boe)$3.42 $3.14 $2.73
G&A ($/Boe)$4.71 $5.56 $6.73
DD&A ($/Boe)$4.62 $4.93 $5.29
Realized Derivatives ($/Boe)$3.64 $2.38 $0.31

Segment Breakdown – Production Volumes (MBOE; oldest → newest)

AssetQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Bairoil294 293 280
Beta304 308 315
Oklahoma454 436 393
East Texas / North Louisiana638 609 570
Eagle Ford (Non‑op)62 60 49
Total1,752 1,706 1,607

Segment Breakdown – LOE by Asset ($MM; oldest → newest)

AssetQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Bairoil$13.16 $11.80 $13.73
Beta$9.52 $12.11 $13.31
Oklahoma$3.64 $3.95 $3.86
East Texas / North Louisiana$5.59 $5.89 $4.98
Eagle Ford (Non‑op)$1.34 $1.35 $1.54
Total$33.26 $35.10 $37.42

KPIs

KPIQ1 2025Q4 2024
Net Debt ($MM)$125 $127
Net Debt / LTM Adjusted EBITDA (x)1.3x 1.2x
Oil Avg Price (incl realized deriv., $/Bbl)$68.31 $68.25
Gas Avg Price (incl realized deriv., $/Mcf)$3.93 $3.27
Magnify Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)$0.9 $0.9
Beta C54 IP20 (Bopd)~800 N/A

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Oil (MBbls/d)FY 2025E8.5–9.4 8.3–8.9 Lowered
NGL (MBbls/d)FY 2025E3.0–3.3 3.0–3.3 Maintained
Natural Gas (MMcf/d)FY 2025E45.0–51.0 45.0–50.0 Lowered (high end)
Total (MBoe/d)FY 2025E19.0–21.0 19.0–20.5 Lowered (high end)
Adjusted EBITDA ($MM)FY 2025E100–120 80–110 Lowered
Capital Investment ($MM)FY 2025E70–80 55–70 Lowered
Free Cash Flow ($MM)FY 2025E10–30 10–20 Lowered (high end)
LOE ($/Boe)FY 2025E18.50–20.50 18.50–20.50 Maintained
Cash G&A ($/Boe)FY 2025E3.40–3.90 3.40–3.90 Maintained
GPT ($/Boe)FY 2025E2.25–2.85 2.25–2.85 Maintained
Other Revenue ($MM)FY 2025EMagnify $4–$6; Other $2–$3 Magnify $4–$6; Other $2–$3 Maintained
Cash Interest ($MM)FY 2025E12–18 12–18 Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Trend
Beta development performanceC59 IP30 ~590 Bopd; strong payback expectations Six Beta completions planned in 2025; electrification project complete; early 2025 Beta rates increasing C54 IP20 ~800 Bopd; D‑Sand wells >90% IRR; three 2025 Beta wells (with deferrals) Strengthening deliverability; pace moderated for FCF
Capital allocation & deferralsIncreased liquidity with $145M borrowing base; continuing Beta program FY25 capex initially $70–$80M with Beta focus Defer ~3 Beta projects; FY25 capex cut to $55–$70M Defensive to preserve FCF
Hedging postureAdded oil swaps 2025–2026; collars maintained Extended hedges through 2027; detailed volumes Added 2026–2027 oil/gas hedges; high PDP hedge coverage (oil 75–80% 2025) Enhanced protection
East Texas monetizationConsidering monetization; retained Bairoil Monetized Haynesville units; $1.4M proceeds $6.3M proceeds in Q1; +$1.5M in May; retain 10% WI and AMIs Ongoing portfolio optimization
Cost structure & LOELOE fell q/q to $33.3M; initiatives underway LOE rose to $35.1M; Beta failures increased costs LOE rose to $37.4M; targeted 2H decrease via projects Near‑term elevated, guided lower in 2H
Borrowing base/liquidityBorrowing base/elected commitments to $145M Debt $127M; ND/LTM EBITDA 1.2x Debt $125M; ND/LTM EBITDA 1.3x; borrowing base reaffirmed at $145M (May 29) Stable access; leverage targeted lower

Management Commentary

  • “Amplify’s strong first quarter operating and financial results… At Beta, we brought online two wells this year, which strengthen our conviction about the prolific untapped value that remains in the reservoir.” — Martyn Willsher, CEO .
  • “We… temporarily defer three development projects at Beta resulting in capital savings of approximately $15 million in 2025… committed to maintaining strong free cash flow and a healthy balance sheet.” — Martyn Willsher .
  • “All of these [Beta] wells have breakeven prices below $35 per barrel and compare favorably to the economics of the best oil development plays in the country.” — Martyn Willsher .
  • “Month to date… Beta… ~20% increase from our first quarter volume… our annual production guidance range has been adjusted slightly… now 19,000 to 20,500 BOE per day.” — Dan Furbee, COO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Capital structure objective: “Long term, the goal is to be 0.5 turn to 1 turn of leverage” — Jim Frew, CFO .
  • Beta program restart threshold: management indicated oil price “in the 60s” and adequate liquidity could support adding wells back, alongside portfolio optimization to fund Beta development .
  • Portfolio optimization scope: management is “looking at all… opportunities… other than Beta… that would create liquidity… redeploy… into higher return… at Beta” .

Estimates Context

  • Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q1 2025 EPS, revenue, and EBITDA was unavailable; therefore, we cannot assess beats/misses versus Street for this quarter. Values retrieved from S&P Global were unavailable.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Beta remains the core equity driver: C54 IP20 ~800 Bopd and D‑Sand outperformance support high‑IRR inventory; pacing is now aligned to FCF and commodity conditions .
  • Guidance reset is defensive but prudent: Adjusted EBITDA lowered to $80–$110M and capex to $55–$70M, aiming to maintain positive FCF; watch for commodity trajectory and timing of Beta adds .
  • Unit economics improved pricing but higher LOE: sales price per Boe increased, yet LOE and G&A per Boe were seasonally elevated; management guides to 2H LOE moderation via projects and cost actions .
  • Liquidity stable; borrowing base affirmed at $145M post‑quarter, supporting optionality for development acceleration when conditions allow .
  • Portfolio optimization provides near‑term cash without losing upside: Haynesville transactions generated $7.8M in Q1 and $1.5M in May, with retained interests/AMIs for future participation .
  • Hedge coverage is robust, reducing cash flow volatility across 2025–2027; this supports FCF preservation and debt reduction toward the 0.5–1.0x leverage goal .
  • Near-term trade setup: stock sentiment likely hinges on Beta well performance continuity, capex discipline, and commodity trend; catalysts include additional Beta D‑Sand results, cost-down execution at Bairoil, and further portfolio actions .