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Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 delivered stable operations with 19.1 MBoepd (+7% q/q), $68.36M total revenue, $0.15 EPS, and $19.0M Adjusted EBITDA; net income of $6.4M benefited from a derivatives gain while Adjusted Net Loss was $2.3M due to non-cash items and divestiture/impairment effects .
  • Oil mix increased to 48% (64% liquids) as Beta wells outperformed; LOE/boe improved to $22.20 (from $23.28) on efficiency gains despite lower commodity prices .
  • FY25 guidance updated: total volumes trimmed (18.5–20.0 MBoepd), oil differential widened, Adjusted EBITDA lowered to $80–$100M (from $80–$110M), capex raised to $65–$80M, and free cash flow cut to $0–$10M (from $10–$20M), reflecting Beta acceleration and Eagle Ford sale .
  • Strategic pivot advancing: CEO transition, Eagle Ford divestiture proceeds used to reduce debt, and processes initiated to monetize East Texas/Oklahoma to focus on Beta/Bairoil and become more oil-weighted (potential stock catalysts as transactions approach) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Production and oil mix: 19.1 MBoepd (+1.2 MBoepd q/q) as Beta C54 came online; liquids mix rose to 64% with oil at 48% of volumes, aligned with strategy to be more oil-weighted .
  • Beta performance: C54 cum 90 Mbo in ~100 days, currently ~850 gross Bopd; payback ~8 months, IRR >100% at current prices; management: “strong second quarter operating and financial results…C54 has the highest initial production rates of the four wells” .
  • Cost control: LOE/boe fell ~5% q/q to $22.20; cash G&A dropped to $6.8M (from $7.3M); Bairoil power projects expected to lower costs in 2H .

What Went Wrong

  • Pricing headwinds and non-GAAP softness: Total revenues down q/q ($68.36M vs $72.05M) and Adjusted Net Loss of $2.3M despite GAAP net income aided by derivatives; free cash flow negative ($10.1M) on front‑loaded capex .
  • Impairment and raised capex: Q2 impairment expense $8.45M and FY25 capex raised $10M to $65–$80M to accelerate Beta, compressing FY25 FCF outlook to $0–$10M .
  • Guidance pressure: FY25 total volumes and EBITDA range lowered; oil differential widened to ($4.00)–($5.00), modestly pressuring realizations .

Financial Results

Headline P&L (oldest → newest)

MetricQ2 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Total Revenues ($M)79.50 69.02 72.05 68.36
Net Income ($M)7.12 (7.43) (5.86) 6.38
EPS (Basic & Diluted)$0.17 $(0.19) $(0.15) $0.15
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)30.75 21.85 19.44 18.98
Free Cash Flow ($M)9.15 2.93 (7.22) (10.15)

Margins (computed from cited figures)

MetricQ2 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Net Income Margin %9.0% (7.12/79.50) -10.8% (-7.43/69.02) -8.1% (-5.86/72.05) 9.3% (6.38/68.36)
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %38.7% (30.75/79.50) 31.7% (21.85/69.02) 27.0% (19.44/72.05) 27.8% (18.98/68.36)
Note: Margins are calculated by us from reported totals and Adjusted EBITDA.

Production & Mix

KPIQ2 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Average Daily Production (MBoepd)20.3 18.5 17.9 19.1
Liquids %60% 62% 62% 64%
Oil % of Total41% 45% 46% 48%

Cost Metrics

MetricQ2 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
LOE ($/Boe)$19.70 $20.57 $23.28 $22.20
GP&T ($/Boe)$2.66 $2.62 $2.67 $2.71
Cash G&A ($M)6.58 6.35 7.30 6.81
Net Debt ($M)117.5 (as of 6/30/24) 127.0 (12/31/24) 125.0 (3/31/25) 130.0 (6/30/25)
Net Debt / LTM Adj. EBITDA (x)1.2x 1.2x 1.3x 1.5x

Production by Asset (MBoe)

AreaQ1 2025Q2 2025
Bairoil280 286
Beta315 355
Oklahoma393 404
East Texas / North Louisiana570 584
Eagle Ford (Non-op)49 111
Total (MBoe)1,607 1,740
Total (MBoepd)17.9 19.1
Liquids %62% 64%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (May 12, 2025)Current Guidance (Aug 6, 2025)Change
Total Production (MBoe/d)FY2519.0 – 20.5 18.5 – 20.0 Lowered
Oil (MBbl/d)FY258.3 – 8.9 8.3 – 8.9 Maintained
NGL (MBbl/d)FY253.0 – 3.3 2.9 – 3.2 Lowered
Natural Gas (MMcf/d)FY2545 – 50 43 – 48 Lowered
Oil Differential ($/Bbl)FY25($3.25) – ($4.25) ($4.00) – ($5.00) Widened
NGL Realized (% of WTI)FY2527% – 31% 28% – 32% Slightly higher
Gas Realized (% of HH)FY2585% – 92% 90% – 97% Higher
GP&T – Oil ($/Bbl)FY25$0.65 – $0.85 $1.00 – $1.20 Higher
LOE ($/Boe)FY25$18.50 – $20.50 $18.50 – $20.50 Maintained
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY25$80 – $110 $80 – $100 Lowered high end
Capex ($M)FY25$55 – $70 $65 – $80 Raised
Free Cash Flow ($M)FY25$10 – $20 $0 – $10 Lowered

Additional Q2 context: management now expects LOE of ~$137M midpoint for FY25, reflecting Eagle Ford sale and 2H cost savings at Bairoil (not presented in per‑unit guidance table) .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: We did not locate a Q2 2025 earnings call transcript in the document set; themes below reflect press release narratives and prior-quarter disclosures.

TopicQ4 2024 MentionsQ1 2025 MentionsCurrent (Q2 2025)Trend
Beta development outperformanceA50 and C59 exceeded type curves; Beta electrification project completed; setting up 2025 program C48/C54 online; D‑Sand wells projecting >90% IRR at $60 oil; Beta production +35% since early 2024 C54 cum 90 Mbo, ~850 Bopd; C59 ~550 Bopd after ~10 months; accelerating 2H wells (C08) Strengthening execution
Portfolio simplificationConsidering monetization (Bairoil interest, East Texas AMIs) Monetized Haynesville positions; added AMIs Engaged TenOaks to divest East Texas/Oklahoma; Eagle Ford non‑op sold for $23M; focus on Beta/Bairoil Sharpened focus; divestiture pipeline
Capex cadence & FCF2025 plan: $70–$80M with Beta-heavy spend Deferred ~3 Beta projects amid price volatility; 95% capex in 1–3Q25 Capex raised to $65–$80M; still ~95% by 3Q; 2H capex $21–$31M Front‑loaded spend compresses near-term FCF
Hedging & pricingAdded oil/gas hedges; 2025–27 profile Extended 2026–27 hedges, collars Further extended into 2027–28; oil swaps ~ $62.6–$65.8; gas collars floors ~$3.50 Increased out-year protection
Liquidity & leverageNet debt 1.2x LTM EBITDA; RBL $127M Net debt 1.3x; RBL $125M; BB review pending BB affirmed at $145M, then $135M post Eagle Ford; net debt/LTM Adj. EBITDA 1.5x Stable access; leverage modestly higher
Cost structure (Bairoil power)Highlighted power costs; planning efficiency projects Expect lower cash G&A rest of year Bairoil power reduction projects to lower LOE 2H; certification enables 45Q opportunities Cost relief underway; optionality via 45Q

Management Commentary

  • “We are off to a strong start implementing various strategic initiatives…monetizing assets to reduce our operating footprint, paying down debt, focusing our resources on Beta and Bairoil…best position the Company to generate significant value” — CEO Dan Furbee .
  • “Despite a lower commodity price environment, Amplify was able to generate strong second quarter operating and financial results…C54…has the highest initial production rates…non‑operated wells in East Texas…exceeding our forecasts” — Dan Furbee .
  • On capital allocation and returns: C54 expected to pay out in ~8 months with >100% IRR; East Texas non‑op wells expected payout <18 months with >45% IRRs at current gas prices .
  • On hedging: Extended crude swaps into 2026–27 (~$62.6–$65.8) and added 2027–28 gas collars (floors ~$3.50, ceilings ~$4.52) to protect cash flows .
  • On costs: LOE/boe improvement and 2H Bairoil power savings targeted; cash G&A down 7% q/q .

Q&A Highlights

We did not find a Q2 2025 earnings call transcript in the available documents; no Q&A summary is available in this source set. We will update if the company posts the transcript.

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus estimates for Q2 2025 were unavailable for EPS, revenue, and EBITDA as of this analysis; thus, no quantitative beat/miss assessment versus Street is provided (we attempted retrieval, but no data returned from S&P Global). Values retrieved from S&P Global.

MetricS&P Global ConsensusActual
Revenue ($M)N/A*68.36
EPS ($)N/A*0.15
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)N/A*18.98
*Consensus not available from S&P Global at the time of analysis. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Implications: In absence of published consensus, buyside models will likely adjust to (a) slightly lower FY25 volumes and EBITDA, (b) higher capex and wider oil differentials, and (c) stronger Beta well cadence in 2H offset by front-loaded spend .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Sequential operational step-up with oil-weighted mix tailwind: 19.1 MBoepd (+7% q/q), liquids 64%, oil 48%; Beta continues to outperform; this mix helps mitigate lower commodity prices .
  • Reported GAAP profitability masks non-GAAP softness: $6.4M net income vs $2.3M Adjusted Net Loss; free cash flow negative on accelerated capex; near-term FCF constrained until capex tails off in 4Q .
  • Guidance reset frames 2H: FY25 EBITDA range narrowed to $80–$100M and FCF to $0–$10M; higher capex reflects Beta acceleration with high IRRs; expect improved capital efficiency in 2026 as wells mature .
  • Balance sheet manageable with hedging support: RBL base $135M post-Eagle Ford sale; net debt/LTM Adj. EBITDA 1.5x with extended oil/gas hedges into 2027–28 .
  • Strategic simplification is core catalyst path: sale of East Texas/Oklahoma would streamline footprint, lower G&A/LOE, reduce debt, and fund Beta program acceleration—key potential stock rerating triggers on execution .
  • Watch list for 3Q/4Q: C08 well results at Beta, LOE trajectory at Bairoil as power projects complete, progress on asset sales, and any update to differentials/realizations .
  • Risk checks: wider oil diffs ($4–$5/bbl), higher GP&T for oil, commodity volatility, and execution risk on divestitures could pressure FY25 FCF within the new range .

Additional details and data references:

  • Q2 2025 operating/financial summary, production by asset, pricing, LOE/boe, GP&T/boe, cash G&A, and non‑GAAP reconciliations .
  • Q1 2025 and Q4 2024 trend context, including production, revenues, costs, and hedging .
  • Strategic updates: Eagle Ford sale ($23M), CEO transition, divestiture process for East Texas/Oklahoma .