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AE

Amplify Energy Corp. (AMPY)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 headline loss driven by non-cash items, while operating metrics improved: GAAP net loss of $21.0M (−$0.52 EPS) due to a $34.0M impairment; Adjusted EBITDA rose 7% q/q to $20.3M as LOE/boe fell 11% q/q to $19.67 and production grew to 19.7 Mboe/d .
  • Portfolio simplification accelerated: AMPY agreed to divest all Oklahoma and East Texas assets for $220M total consideration; one deal closed in October with the rest expected in Q4, with proceeds earmarked to repay the $123M revolver and fund Beta development .
  • Beta execution exceeded type curve: C08 delivered IP30 ≈ 550 bopd; C61 online in late October with promising early results; five D‑Sand wells to date are projected to generate >100% IRRs at $65 WTI, supporting 2026 acceleration post-divestitures .
  • Guidance cadence: Company introduced Q4 capex of $8–$12M and reiterated expectations for lower LOE run‑rate (including ~$10M/yr savings at Bairoil), while maintaining FY25 framework from August; deleveraging plus Beta growth are key stock catalysts into 2026 .
  • Estimates context: S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025 was unavailable; third‑party aggregator indicated revenue $67.7M and EPS $0.09 vs actual $66.4M and −$0.52, implying headline misses (note comparability and non-cash impairment) .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

  • What Went Well

    • Operating execution: Adjusted EBITDA rose to $20.3M (+7% q/q) on lower LOE/boe ($19.67, −11% q/q) despite weaker commodity prices; production increased to 19.7 Mboe/d (+0.6 q/q; +~10% adjusted for Eagle Ford sale) .
    • Beta outperformance: C08 IP30 ≈ 550 bopd; five D‑Sand wells to date outperform the Beta type curve; management expects >100% IRRs at $65 WTI and ≈40% Beta production growth since early 2024 after offsetting base declines .
    • Strategic clarity and cost actions: Announced $220M of asset sales to simplify portfolio and reduce G&A; Bairoil CO2 contract and plant project lower LOE run‑rate by ≈$10M/yr and cut power usage ~30% .

    Management quotes:

    • “We intend to simplify our portfolio, strengthen our balance sheet, and focus our resources on our assets with the highest potential upside opportunities.” — CEO Dan Furbee .
    • “We are excited about the continued success we are having with our drilling program at Beta… and meaningful cost savings at Bairoil.” — CEO Dan Furbee .

  • What Went Wrong

    • GAAP earnings impact: $34.0M impairment tied to marketed assets drove GAAP net loss of $21.0M (−$0.52 EPS) vs Q2 GAAP net income of $6.4M .
    • Pricing/mix headwind: Unhedged revenue fell to $64.2M despite higher volumes as prices declined; liquids mix fell to 57% from 64% in Q2, reflecting higher East Texas gas volumes .
    • Free cash flow timing: FCF was −$0.7M (vs −$10.1M in Q2) given front‑loaded 2025 capital spend (~85% by Q3), with GPT/boe up to $2.89 from $2.71 .

Financial Results

MetricQ1 2025Q2 2025Q3 2025
Total Revenues Excluding Hedges ($M)$72.1 $68.4 $66.4
GAAP Net Income (Loss) ($M)$(5.9) $6.4 $(21.0)
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$(0.15) $0.15 $(0.52)
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)$19.4 $19.0 $20.3
Adjusted Net Income (Loss) ($M)$3.8 $(2.3) $(6.0)
Free Cash Flow ($M)$(7.2) $(10.1) $(0.7)
Average Daily Production (Mboe/d)17.9 19.1 19.7
LOE per Boe ($/boe)$23.28 $22.20 $19.67
GPT per Boe ($/boe)$2.67 $2.71 $2.89
Cash G&A ($M)$7.30 $6.81 $6.66

Segment production and LOE (Q2 → Q3):

  • Production volumes (MBoe): Bairoil 286 → 280; Beta 355 → 357; Oklahoma 404 → 402; East TX/N. LA 584 → 768; Eagle Ford 111 → 4 .
  • LOE ($M): Bairoil $14.0 → $13.0; Beta $13.4 → $14.0; Oklahoma $4.3 → $4.5; East TX/N. LA $5.7 → $4.2; Eagle Ford $1.2 → $(0.02) .
KPIQ2 2025Q3 2025
Product Mix (Liquids %)64% 57%
Avg Oil Price ($/bbl, ex-deriv)$60.01 $60.72
Avg NGL Price ($/bbl, ex-deriv)$19.82 $18.86
Avg Gas Price ($/mcf, ex-deriv)$3.04 $2.86
Derivatives Gain (Net) ($M)$4.8 $4.8
Capex ($M)$25.5 $17.5

Actual vs third‑party consensus (Q3 2025):

  • Revenue: $66.4M actual vs $67.7M consensus (MarketBeat) → small miss .
  • EPS (GAAP): −$0.52 actual vs +$0.09 consensus (MarketBeat) → miss, driven by $34.0M impairment .
    Note: S&P Global consensus was not available for Q3 2025.

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)FY 2025$80–$110 (Aug 6) Maintained framework; no formal update in Q3Maintained
Capital Investment ($M)FY 2025$65–$80 (Aug 6) Maintained; introduced Q4 capex $8–$12 Maintained; added Q4
LOE ($/boe)FY 2025$18.50–$20.50 (Aug 6) Trending lower; Bairoil actions reduce run‑rate by ~$10M/yr Improving trajectory
Taxes (% of revenue)FY 20256%–7% (Aug 6) “Within guidance” reiterated Maintained
Cash G&A ($/boe)FY 2025$3.40–$3.90 (Aug 6) No explicit changeMaintained
Hedging – Oil swaps Wtd Avg Price2026–2027$62.79 (added in Q2) $62.29 (added Q3) Slightly lower
Asset Sales ProceedsQ4 2025 closeEast TX $127.5M (Oct 29) ; Oklahoma $92.5M (Nov 5) Use proceeds to repay revolver and accelerate Beta Execution underway
DividendN/ANone disclosedNone disclosedNo change

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Note: A Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available; themes below reflect management commentary from Q1/Q2/Q3 press releases.

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
Portfolio simplificationExploring divestitures; sold Eagle Ford; began marketing East TX & OK Definitive agreements to sell East TX & OK for $220M; one closed in Oct Accelerating
Beta developmentC54 IP strong; multiple D‑Sand wells outperform; preparing additional wells C08 IP30 ≈ 550 bopd; C61 online; 5 D‑Sand wells projected >100% IRR at $65 WTI Strengthening
Bairoil cost/CCUSCO2 plant power reduction project; CCUS certification (45Q eligibility) New CO2 contract + facility upgrades reduce run‑rate LOE by ~$10M/yr Improving
HedgingAdded 2026–2028 oil/gas hedges (oil swaps ~$62.8) Added hedges; oil swaps ~$62.29 into 2027 Maintained
Liquidity/LeverageBB reaffirmed $145M (then $135M post EF sale); net debt/LTM EBITDA ~1.5x $123M RCF drawn; net debt/LTM EBITDA ~1.5x; plan to repay with divestitures Deleveraging path
Capex cadenceFront‑loaded; ~95% of FY capital by Q3 planned Q4 capex $8–$12M; focus on Beta, pipeline upgrade, facilities Down in Q4

Management Commentary

  • “We intend to simplify our portfolio, strengthen our balance sheet, and focus our resources on our assets with the highest potential upside opportunities.” — CEO Dan Furbee .
  • “We are excited about the continued success we are having with our drilling program at Beta… meaningful cost savings at Bairoil, and… CCUS initiatives can further increase future cash flow.” — CEO Dan Furbee .
  • “We expect all five [Beta D‑Sand] wells will generate IRRs greater than 100%, assuming $65 WTI oil prices.” — Company release .

Q&A Highlights

  • Q3 2025 earnings call transcript was not available at the time of analysis; no Q&A details could be reviewed.

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q3 2025 were unavailable.
  • Third‑party aggregator MarketBeat showed: Revenue consensus $67.70M; EPS consensus $0.09. Actuals were revenue $66.4M and GAAP EPS −$0.52, implying misses primarily due to a $34.0M impairment tied to asset marketing .
  • Given non‑cash impairment and differing EPS bases (GAAP vs possible adjusted), we expect Street models to recalibrate for divestiture scope changes and lower LOE trajectory.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Deleveraging catalyst: Closing $220M of asset sales and applying proceeds to repay the $123M revolver materially reduces leverage and supports a 2026 Beta acceleration plan .
  • Beta is the growth engine: Continued well outperformance and >100% IRR outlook at $65 WTI reinforce a focused, oil‑weighted development story post‑divestitures .
  • Cost structure inflecting: LOE/boe down 11% q/q to $19.67 with ~$10M/yr Bairoil run‑rate savings, supporting higher margins even in softer price tapes .
  • Mind the optics: Q3 GAAP loss and EPS miss were driven by a non‑cash $34M impairment; underlying Adjusted EBITDA improved and FCF trajectory is set to improve with lower Q4 capex and divestiture proceeds .
  • Mix considerations: Liquids mix declined to 57% (from 64%) on East Texas gas contributions; divestitures and Beta growth should re‑tilt toward oil over time .
  • Hedge support: Additional 2026–2027 oil swaps around ~$62 provide downside protection; overall hedge book remains robust .
  • Near‑term positioning: Focus on deal closings, Q4 execution (pipeline upgrade, Beta facilities), and any borrowing base updates; shares should be sensitive to de‑risking of proceeds, Beta well results, and sustained LOE reduction .