Executive Summary

Q1 2025 missed on both revenue and EPS versus S&P Global consensus as India biodiesel shipments paused until late April; revenue was $42.9m vs $59.0m consensus and EPS was -$0.47 vs -$0.40 consensus, with higher SG&A tied to tax credit monetization also weighing on operating results . Estimates from S&P Global marked with an asterisk below.
Management highlighted improving ethanol pricing, 17% YoY RNG volume growth, and the resumption of India biodiesel shipments in late April backed by $31m of OMC orders for May–July; LCFS pathway approvals for seven dairies are expected this quarter with monetization beginning in Q3, positioning H2 2025 for a revenue inflection .
Cash ended at ~$0.5m after ~$15.4m of debt repayment and ~$1.8m of project investments; the company generated $19.0m cash proceeds from sales of investment tax credits in Q1 and expects further ITC/PTC monetization during 2025 .
Near-term catalysts: sustained India shipment run-rate in Q2, LCFS pathway approvals and Q3 monetization, progressing 45Z PTC marketing, and RNG capacity additions; medium-term: Keyes MVR project expected to add ~$32m annual cash flow from 2026 and scaling to ~1.0m MMBtu RNG by 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Ethanol pricing tailwind and stable volumes: average ethanol price rose to $1.98/gal with 103% of nameplate capacity, lifting Keyes revenues by ~$1.7m YoY; CFO: “Revenues…reflect continued and strong execution by our California Ethanol and Dairy Renewable Natural Gas segments.” .
- RNG growth and LCFS trajectory: RNG sold rose to 70.9k MMBtu (+10.1k YoY); management expects seven CARB pathway approvals this quarter with LCFS monetization beginning Q3 .
- Tax credit monetization: $19.0m of ITC sales provided cash in Q1; management expects additional ITC/PTC sales during 2025. “We expect…another couple of ITC sales during the course of this year… and… ongoing [quarterly] 45Z monetization.” .
What Went Wrong
- India biodiesel pause drove top-line miss: Revenues fell to $42.9m from $72.6m YoY due to delayed OMC tenders; shipments resumed late April with $31m orders for May–July .
- Profitability pressure: gross loss widened to $5.1m (from $0.6m) and operating loss to $15.6m (from $9.5m), with SG&A +$1.6m largely from tax credit transaction costs in the quarter .
- Elevated interest burden and limited liquidity: interest expense rose to $13.7m, net loss was -$24.5m, and quarter-end cash was ~$0.5m despite $15.4m debt repayment; near-term execution depends on credit monetization and LCFS/India tailwinds materializing on time .

Financial Results

Income statement comparison

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($m)	72.634	47.004	42.886
Gross Profit (Loss) ($m)	(0.612)	(2.040)	(5.080)
Gross Margin (%)	-0.8%	-4.3%	-11.8%
Operating Loss ($m)	(9.462)	(13.476)	(15.555)
Net Loss ($m)	(24.231)	(16.197)	(24.529)
Diluted EPS ($)	(0.58)	(0.36)	(0.47)
Adjusted EBITDA ($m)	(4.750)	(9.612)	(10.663)

Results vs S&P Global consensus (Q1 2025)

Metric	Consensus*	Actual
Revenue ($m)	58.986*	42.886
Primary EPS ($)	(0.395)*	(0.47)

Footnote: *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Operating and liquidity KPIs

Metric	Q1 2025
Cash and cash equivalents ($m)	0.499
Debt repayment during Q1 ($m)	15.4
Capex (CI reduction & dairy digesters) Q1 ($m)	1.8
ITC cash proceeds in Q1 ($m)	19.0

Segment/KPI snapshot

KPI	Q1 2024	Q1 2025
Ethanol gallons sold (m)	14.1	14.1
Average ethanol price ($/gal)	1.79	1.98
RNG sold (k MMBtu)	60.8	70.9
Avg RNG price ($/MMBtu)	4.02	3.65
RINs sold (k)	766.4	388.2
Avg RIN price ($)	3.08	2.64
LCFS credits sold (k)	18.0	16.0
Avg LCFS price ($/credit)	66.00	72.50
India biodiesel metric tons sold (k)	27.5	0.0

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
India biodiesel shipments	May–Jul 2025	No Q1 guide; Q4 2024 noted timing gap in OMC tenders	Received $31m orders; shipments began late April; ramping to ~$10m/month	Raised visibility/new orders
LCFS pathway approvals (RNG)	Q2 2025 approval; Q3 monetization	Q3 2024: expected accrual/approvals around Q2 2025	Seven dairy pathways “in final review…approvals expected this quarter,” revenues recognized in Q3 due to timing	Timing refined/slightly later monetization
RNG capacity	2025–2026	Exit 2025 run-rate ~1.0m MMBtu; 550k in 2025	550k MMBtu capacity in 2025; 1.0m MMBtu in 2026	Maintained
Keyes MVR cash flow uplift	From 2026	$15–$29m/yr depending on LCFS value	~$32m/yr starting 2026; ~$20m in grants/credits to fund	Raised
45Z production tax credit	2025+	Awaiting guidance; start Jan 1, 2025 by law	Actively applying/marketing credits; pursuing PER and energy density fixes; can monetize at current rates and later reprice	Progressing
Tax credit monetization (ITC/PTC)	2025	Q4: $12.3m sold late 2024	$19.0m ITCs sold Q1; “another couple” of ITC sales and ongoing quarterly 45Z sales expected	Increased 2025 activity

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)	Current Period (Q1 2025)	Trend
LCFS policy/credits	CARB adopted 20-year LCFS update; LCFS price path and credit bank depletion; expected revenue uplift in 2025–2026	Seven dairy pathways in final review; approvals expected Q2 with Q3 monetization	Improving execution visibility
45Z PTC	45Z starts Jan 1, 2025; awaiting IRS guidance; potential delays	Actively marketing credits; pushing for PER and 11.7 gal/MMBtu alignment; potential 5x uplift vs current calc	Advancing; regulatory overhang remains
E15 ethanol	EPA summer E15 and push for CA E15; potential demand boost	EPA summer E15 approved; management expects demand lift; CA E15 work expedited	Positive
RNG scale/op-ex	Target 550k→1.0m MMBtu; operations scaling	18 dairies operating this year; OpEx/MMBtu to decline with scale/seasonality	Scaling; cost leverage ahead
India business	Strong FY2024; new OMC contracts expected; IPO prep	$31m LOIs; shipments started; IPO targeted late 2025/early 2026; possible RNG/ethanol entry in India	Resumed growth; strategic optionality
Tariffs/supply chain	Monitored, hedged by domestic feedstocks	Minimal direct impact to RNG/SAF operations; possible one-time capex impacts	Neutral
Financing	USDA REAP loans; EB-5 pipeline	$200m EB-5 approved; sub-3% subordinated; continued debt reduction/refi plans	Improving access to low-cost capital
Carbon capture	Characterization well progressing; Class VI path	Phase 2 drilling underway; target 1.4m tons/yr sequestration	Advancing permits

Management Commentary

CFO framing the quarter: “Revenues during the first quarter of 2025 of $42.9 million reflect continued and strong execution by our California Ethanol and Dairy Renewable Natural Gas segments…. We look forward to substantial additional revenues when we receive the LCFS provisional pathway approvals… and receive the… 45Z production tax credits.”
CEO on scale and policy tailwinds: “We expect to reach 550,000 MMBtus of production capacity this year and grow to 1 million MMBtu annually by the end of 2026… Once provisional LCFS pathways are approved, Aemetis Biogas could generate over $60 million annually from LCFS credits alone.”
On Keyes MVR project: “This project is expected to reduce natural gas use by 80% and add an estimated $32 million in annual cash flow starting in 2026… we’ve secured $20 million in grants and tax credits.”

Q&A Highlights

Tariffs: Minimal direct impact expected on RNG and SAF operations given domestic feedstocks and customers; potential indirect effect on one-time capital equipment .
RNG OpEx: OpEx/MMBtu should decline as additional dairies come online and seasonality improves biogas yields; current costs include digesters not yet producing .
Ethanol margins: Near-term outlook positive with summer E15, stronger ethanol prices, and moderating corn; EBITDA-positive potential framed as dependent on demand and spread .
LCFS monetization timing: First seven pathways expected this quarter; revenue recognized in Q3 due to timing of credit generation/monetization .
45Z PTC mechanics: Pursuing Provisional Emissions Rate and correcting energy density from 7.8 to 11.7 gal/MMBtu; can sell credits at current calc and true-up later .
Financing and liquidity: Continued debt paydown (Q1: $15.5m) and refinance efforts; EB-5 funding <3% cost and subordinated; additional ITC/PTC monetization expected .
India: $31m OMC orders through July; IPO targeted late 2025/early 2026; exploring RNG/ethanol expansion in India .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $42.9m vs $59.0m consensus (miss); EPS -$0.47 vs -$0.40 consensus (miss). Drivers were India biodiesel tender delays and higher transaction costs tied to tax credit monetization; shipments restarted in April with $31m orders for May–July . Consensus figures marked with an asterisk are from S&P Global.
Implications: Street likely to lower near-term revenue/EPS for Q2 modestly given lagged India restart and still-pending LCFS approvals, while raising H2 2025 on LCFS monetization and steady India shipments; monitoring 45Z timing remains key .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Near-term setup: Q2 should benefit from resumed India shipments; the larger inflection is expected in Q3 as LCFS pathways are monetized and RNG revenues step up; these are the primary trading catalysts over the next 1–2 quarters .
Q1 miss context: Weak India volumes (0 biodiesel tons sold) and higher SG&A tied to tax credit monetization drove the miss; these pressures are transitory as India orders/shipments are already in flight .
Liquidity watch: Low quarter-end cash (~$0.5m) necessitates continued execution on ITC/PTC monetization, debt refinancing, and EB-5 draws; management repaid ~$15m debt in Q1 and expects further progress in 2025 .
Structural upside: LCFS credits and 45Z PTC can materially re-rate RNG unit economics; MVR at Keyes provides a 2026 cash flow step-up (~$32m/yr) and improves CI scores .
Policy leverage: EPA’s summer E15 approval and potential CA E15 adoption support ethanol margins; CARB’s LCFS framework underpins long-dated RNG economics .
Execution priorities: On-time LCFS approvals, stable India tender cadence beyond July, disciplined RNG build-out (Centuri partnership), and tax credit monetization cadence are the core drivers to track .
Estimate revisions likely: Trim near-term EPS on Q1 miss/interest burden; raise H2 on LCFS monetization/India shipments and into 2026 on MVR uplift.

Additional Supporting Detail

Selective operational metrics and disclosures

Revenue down to $42.9m (from $72.6m) on India OMC tender delays; Keyes ethanol revenue +$1.7m YoY on price; RNG volumes +10.1k MMBtu YoY .
Cost/expense items: SG&A +$1.6m to $10.5m primarily from ITC transaction costs; interest expense (ex-biogas accretion) rose to $13.7m; accretion expense $2.3m .
Balance sheet: Cash $0.5m; current portion of LT debt $93.7m; total current liabilities $174.6m .
Production detail: Ethanol 14.1m gal at $1.98/gal; RNG 70.9k MMBtu; LCFS avg price $72.50; India biodiesel 0 metric tons in Q1 .
Post-quarter developments: $31m OMC biodiesel orders for May–July; shipments began April 24; Centuri $27m agreement to accelerate biogas equipment builds (15 digesters) .

Quotes (for context)

“We look forward to substantial additional revenues when we receive the LCFS provisional pathway approvals… and receive the… 45Z [PTCs].” – CFO
“Once provisional LCFS pathways are approved, Aemetis Biogas could generate over $60 million annually from LCFS credits alone.” – CEO
“We will show [LCFS] as third quarter revenues… first quarter’s production approved in the second quarter and… monetized in… July.” – CEO
“We are currently working on marketing our first round of production tax credits… and will significantly increase our ability to pay down debt during 2025 and 2026.” – CEO

Citations:

Q1 2025 8-K and press release:
Q1 2025 earnings call transcript:
Q4 2024 8-K:
Q3 2024 earnings call transcript:
India orders/shipments and Centuri agreement press releases:

S&P Global disclaimer: Consensus figures denoted with an asterisk (*) are values retrieved from S&P Global.

AEMETIS, INC (AMTX)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary