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AEMETIS, INC (AMTX)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 2025 revenue was $52.2M, up $9.3M QoQ on resumed India biodiesel deliveries, but down YoY versus $66.6M; EPS was ($0.41) with net loss improving to ($23.4M) YoY .
  • Versus S&P Global consensus, revenue of $78.7M* and EPS of ($0.32), results missed on both lines; consensus was based on 3 estimates [functions.GetEstimates].
  • LCFS catalysts: CARB approved seven RNG pathways with average CI of -384 effective Jan 1, 2025, increasing LCFS credits about ~100%–120% for those dairies; LCFS prices rose to around $60 following July 1 amendments, with 45Z production tax credits expected to be monetized beginning in Q3 .
  • Strategic focus: RNG capacity targeted at ~550k MMBtu in 2025 and ~1,000,000 MMBtu run-rate by 2026; MVR project at Keyes expected to reduce natural gas use by ~80% and add ~$32M annual cash flow starting 2026, supporting debt refinancing and improved cash generation .

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global for estimates.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • India biodiesel resumed deliveries, contributing $11.9M revenue; overall Q2 revenue increased by $9.3M QoQ to $52.2M .
  • RNG momentum: 11 digesters generated $3.1M revenue; seven LCFS pathways approved with blended CI -384, unlocking materially more LCFS credits; management expects multiple monetization streams (molecule sales, LCFS, D3 RINs, 45Z) to drive positive operating cash flow .
  • Cost discipline: SG&A fell to $7.3M from $11.8M YoY; operating loss improved to ($10.7M) vs ($13.6M) YoY .

Management quotes:

  • “We look forward to additional revenues from the seven dairy digester RNG pathways recently approved by CARB and the revenues from federal Section 45Z production tax credits...” — CFO Todd Waltz .
  • “We are pleased with the continued growth of Aemetis Biogas… the Section 45Z tax credit income and operating cash flow is expected to be significantly increased in our California Ethanol segment…” — CEO Eric McAfee .
  • “LCFS amendments… became effective on July 1, resulting in an increase in LCFS credit prices from about $42 to about $60… expected to generate strong positive cash flow from operations this year.” — CFO Todd Waltz .

What Went Wrong

  • Top-line shortfall vs consensus: Revenue of $52.2M vs $78.7M*; EPS ($0.41) vs ($0.32)*; LCFS and 45Z credits not recognized until sold, pushing monetization into Q3 [functions.GetEstimates].
  • Gross loss widened sequentially vs Q1 ($3.4M vs $5.1M prior quarter improvement, but still negative) and remained negative YoY ($1.8M gross loss in Q2 2024); ethanol operated at lower grind to maximize margins .
  • Balance sheet pressure: Current portion of long-term debt jumped to $247.6M from $93.7M in Q1 (and $63.7M at 2024YE), elevating near-term refinancing urgency; cash ended Q2 at $1.6M .

Financial Results

Sequential Trend (Q4 2024 → Q1 2025 → Q2 2025)

MetricQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Revenue ($USD Thousands)$47,004 $42,886 $52,243
Gross Profit (Loss) ($USD Thousands)($2,040) ($5,080) ($3,355)
SG&A ($USD Thousands)$11,436 $10,475 $7,319
Operating Loss ($USD Thousands)($13,476) ($15,555) ($10,674)
Net Loss ($USD Thousands)($16,197) ($24,529) ($23,395)
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.36) ($0.47) ($0.41)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)($9,612) ($10,663) ($5,768)

YoY Comparison (Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024)

MetricQ2 2025Q2 2024
Revenue ($USD Thousands)$52,243 $66,561
Gross Loss ($USD Thousands)($3,355) ($1,806)
SG&A ($USD Thousands)$7,319 $11,800
Operating Loss ($USD Thousands)($10,674) ($13,606)
Interest Rate Expense ($USD Thousands)$11,235 $9,904
Accretion of Series A Preferred ($USD Thousands)$2,032 $3,477
Net Loss ($USD Thousands)($23,395) ($29,174)
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.41) ($0.66)

Estimates vs Actuals (Q2 2025)

MetricConsensus*Actual
Revenue ($USD)$78,683,510*$52,243,000
Primary EPS ($USD)($0.31835)*($0.41)
# of Estimates (Revenue)3*—
# of Estimates (EPS)3*—

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global for estimates.

Segment KPIs and Operating Metrics

KPIQ4 2024Q1 2025Q2 2025
Ethanol gallons sold (millions)15.7 14.1 13.8
Ethanol avg sales price ($/gal)$1.93 $1.98 $2.01
WDG tons sold (thousands)105.7 93 91.0
Corn bushels ground (millions)5.4 4.8 4.7
RNG MMBtu sold (thousands)67.1 70.9 106.4
RNG avg price ($/MMBtu)$3.45 $3.65 $2.75
D3 RINs sold (thousands)987.3 388.2 763.6
LCFS credits sold (thousands)8.5 16.0 14.0
LCFS avg price ($/credit)$64.8 $72.50 $55.25
India biodiesel metric tons (thousands)0.7 0.0 9.4
India biodiesel avg price ($/MT)$1,227 — $1,010
Refined glycerin metric tons (thousands)1.1 0.0 0.1

Additional segment revenue disclosures:

  • RNG revenue: $3.1M (Q2 2025) .
  • India biodiesel revenue: $11.9M (Q2 2025) .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
RNG production capacityFY 2025~550,000 MMBtu capacity targeted (Q4 2024 commentary) ~550,000 capacity confirmed; ~1,000,000 MMBtu annual run-rate by 2026 Maintained for 2025; introduced 2026 target
LCFS pathways2025–2026Pathways in process; LCFS credits initiated in 2024 Seven pathways approved (CI avg -384) effective 1/1/2025; four more under review; faster Tier 1 process Raised (accelerated approvals)
LCFS pricing2025N/AAmendments effective 7/1; LCFS rose $42→$60; cap $268 (2025) N/A (favorable environment)
45Z production tax credits2025–2026Began generating in Jan 2025 Plan for recurring sales (quarterly cadence); initial monetization expected Q3 2025 pending DOE GREET update; ~$82/MMBtu indicative value New explicit cadence; clarified valuation
MVR project (Keyes ethanol)2026$10.5M 48C allocation; $6M CEC; project underway Completion Q2 2026; ~80% NG reduction; ~$32M annual cash flow uplift Reaffirmed timeline; quantified impact
E15 adoption2025EPA approved temporary summer E15 for 8 states; 49 states expected by YE25 California E15 legislation advancing; management expects 75% chance of CA approval in 2025; national adoption could add 5B gallons demand Positive trajectory

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q-2: Q4 2024, Q-1: Q1 2025)Current Period (Q2 2025)Trend
LCFS pathways/pricingInitiated LCFS credit sales in 2024; capacity build underway 7 pathways approved (CI -384); LCFS $~60 post-amendments; 4 more pathways pending; Tier 1 faster Strengthening
Section 45Z monetizationBegan generating Jan 2025 Plan for recurring sales; Q3 catch-up expected; DOE GREET update pending; indicative ~$82/MMBtu Accelerating (pending rules)
India biodiesel/IPO$31M LOIs for May–Jul; deliveries began Apr; plant at 80 mgy $11.9M Q2 revenue; India CFO appointed; IPO targeted early 2026 Resuming growth
Refinancing/debtHigh interest expense; need better structure Deep in refinancing; dependent on proving 45Z cash flows; aim for long-term amortization Progress contingent on 45Z
Ethanol/MVR/E1548C grant; MVR equipment fabrication underway; temp E15 approvals MVR completion Q2 2026; 80% NG reduction; $32M cash flow uplift; CA E15 advancing Improving margin outlook

Management Commentary

  • “Seven of our dairy pathways were approved by CARB during the second quarter at a blended negative 384 carbon intensity score, unlocking about 120% more LCFS credit revenue for those dairies…” — CFO Todd Waltz .
  • “Collectively, molecule revenues, LCFS credit sales, D3 RIN sales and the sale of 45Z production tax credits are expected to generate strong positive cash flow from operations this year…” — CFO Todd Waltz .
  • “The MVR project is expected to reduce natural gas use by 80% and add an estimated $32 million in annual cash flow starting in 2026.” — CFO Todd Waltz .
  • “Revenues of $52.2 million… reflect continued execution… along with fulfillment of new India Oil Marketing Companies orders.” — CFO Todd Waltz .
  • “We are pleased with the continued growth of Aemetis Biogas production…” — CEO Eric McAfee .

Q&A Highlights

  • LCFS impact: Management emphasized faster Tier 1 approvals and higher LCFS prices; exact EBITDA sensitivity to LCFS price will be shared later due to price volatility .
  • D3 RIN RVO: Company and industry advocating EPA correct understated D3 RVOs; pending comment period .
  • 45Z timing/valuation: DOE GREET update could enable 2025 credit calculation and sales; provisional emissions routes considered; indicative ~$82/MMBtu value; firm registrations in place .
  • Monetization cadence: 45Z expected to become recurring quarterly revenue with potential 45–60 day cadence; Q1/Q2 had no recognized 45Z/LCFS revenue due to sale timing .
  • Refinancing: Advanced discussions; lender awaiting proof of 45Z cash receipts to finalize long-term refinancing terms .
  • E15 adoption: CA implementation seen as likely in 2025; broader US adoption could push ethanol demand above capacity, improving pricing .

Estimates Context

  • Q2 2025 actuals vs consensus: Revenue $52.2M vs $78.7M*; EPS ($0.41) vs ($0.32)* — both below expectations; 3 covering estimates* [functions.GetEstimates].
  • Near-term revisions: Consensus may need to reflect timing of LCFS/45Z monetization (recognized upon sale), RNG pathway approvals, and India volumes resumption, potentially shifting revenue into Q3 .

Note: Values retrieved from S&P Global for estimates.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term print was light vs consensus, but sequential fundamentals improved and significant cash catalysts (LCFS price tailwinds, pathway approvals, 45Z monetization) are slated for Q3 onward .
  • RNG scale-up is on track (11 operating digesters; 7 pathways approved; more pending), supporting multi-stream monetization and stronger operating cash flow through 2026 .
  • Ethanol margin expansion potential is meaningful with MVR (80% NG reduction; ~$32M annual cash flow starting 2026) and E15 adoption, particularly if CA approval lands this year .
  • Balance sheet risk evident with elevated current debt; successful 45Z monetization is the key to unlocking long-term refinancing and de-risking liquidity .
  • India operations have reaccelerated, with resumed OMC shipments and an experienced CFO appointed to drive an IPO; expect ongoing biodiesel orders and potential ethanol entry .
  • Watch regulatory timelines (DOE GREET/45Z finalization, CARB Tier 1 processing, CA E15), as execution on these is central to the earnings trajectory and multiple expansion .
  • Trading implication: Q3 could show catch-up recognition of LCFS/45Z credits; stock should be sensitive to regulatory milestones, tax-credit sale announcements, and refinancing progress .