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AEMETIS, INC (AMTX)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 delivered sequential improvement but missed consensus: revenue $59.2M vs $52.2M in Q2 (+$7.0M) yet below $87.8M Street; EPS diluted -$0.37 vs -$0.21 expected; EBITDA -$5.0M vs +$7.0M expected. Bold negative surprise driven by softer India biodiesel volumes vs expectations and continued high interest expense ; estimates from S&P Global.*
  • RNG operations advanced: 12 digesters generated 114,000 MMBtu and ~$4M revenue; seven CARB LCFS pathways at avg CI -384 boosted LCFS monetization; multiple additional pathways under review .
  • Strategic tailwinds: California approved E15 (AB30), expanding ethanol demand by >600M gallons/year; Keyes MVR project underway to cut natural gas use ~80% and add ~$32M annual cash flow from mid-2026 .
  • Liquidity improved: quarter-end cash rose to $5.6M (from $1.6M in Q2) as capex focused on CI reduction and RNG buildout; management pursuing Q4 sales of Section 48 ITCs and 45Z PTCs, with ~$12M ITC and ~$10M 45Z currently in sale process; planning broader ~$20M tax credit sales .
  • Near-term stock reaction catalysts: magnitude of revenue/EPS/EBITDA miss, LCFS credit price strengthening, E15 adoption, and clarity/monetization timing of 45Z/48 credits could drive sentiment .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • India biodiesel resumed OMC deliveries, contributing $14.5M revenue; sequential total company revenue up $7.0M vs Q2 .
  • RNG scale-up and monetization: 114,000 MMBtu sold, ~$4M revenue; seven CARB LCFS pathways approved at avg CI -384, increasing LCFS revenue for those dairies by ~160% vs default .
  • Strategic decarbonization and policy tailwinds: AB30 E15 approval and MVR project expected to reduce Keyes natural gas by ~80% and add ~$32M annual cash flow starting mid-2026; quote: “The MVR system...is expected to add $32 million to annual cash flow from operations” .

What Went Wrong

  • Significant miss vs consensus: revenue $59.2M vs $87.8M; EPS -$0.37 vs -$0.21; EBITDA -$5.0M vs +$7.0M; YoY revenue down vs Q3 2024 $81.4M ; estimates from S&P Global.*
  • Profitability pressure: gross loss ($58k) vs $3.9M gross profit last year; operating loss -$8.5M; net loss -$23.7M; interest expense ~+$13.0M remains elevated .
  • Tax credit monetization delayed: management did not record 45Z/48 credit sales in Q3; citing DOE calculation timing and project in-service dates pushing ITC/PTC monetization to Q4; quote: “We do not show the cash received…until the 45(z) credits are sold” .

Financial Results

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$81.441 $52.243 $59.190
Gross Profit (Loss) ($USD Millions)$3.878 ($3.355) ($0.058)
Operating Loss ($USD Millions)($3.872) ($10.674) ($8.508)
Net Loss ($USD Millions)($17.935) ($23.395) ($23.747)
Diluted EPS ($USD)($0.38) ($0.41) ($0.37)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$1.459 ($5.768) ($5.038)

Margins (S&P Global)

Margin MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Gross Profit Margin %4.76%*-6.42%*-0.10%*
EBIT Margin %-4.75%*-20.43%*-14.37%*
EBITDA Margin %-1.95%*-15.91%*-10.43%*
Net Income Margin %-22.02%*-44.78%*-40.12%*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Segment and Production KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Dairy RNG Revenue ($USD Millions)—$3.1 $4.0
RNG MMBtu Sold (000s)86.0 106.4 114.0
RNG Avg Price per MMBtu ($)$2.77 $2.75 $3.45
RINs Sold (000s)935.3 763.6 1,020.4
Avg RIN Price ($)$3.37 $2.60 $2.37
LCFS Credits Sold (000s)20.0 14.0 22.2
Avg LCFS Price ($)$43.00 $55.25 $53.50
India Biodiesel Revenue ($USD Millions)—$11.9 $14.5
India Biodiesel Metric Tons (000s)26.0 9.4 12.5
Avg Biodiesel Price/MT ($)$1,198 $1,010 $1,112
Ethanol Gallons Sold (MM)15.5 13.8 14.7
Ethanol Avg Price/Gallon ($)$2.12 $2.01 $2.13
Delivered Corn Cost/Bushel ($)$6.07 $6.42 $5.95

Estimates vs Actual (S&P Global)

MetricQ3 2024 EstimateQ3 2024 ActualQ2 2025 EstimateQ2 2025 ActualQ3 2025 EstimateQ3 2025 Actual
Revenue ($USD)$78.04M*$81.441M $78.68M*$52.243M $87.79M*$59.190M
Primary EPS (USD)($0.417)*($0.383) ($0.318)*($0.41) ($0.210)*($0.3729)
EBITDA ($USD)($0.30M)*($1.586M) $2.53M*($8.312M) $6.99M*($6.171M)
# of Revenue Estimates4*—3*—4*—
# of EPS Estimates7*—3*—3*—

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q2 2025)Current Guidance (Q3 2025)Change
RNG Production Capacity (annualized)YE 2025~550,000 MMBtu capacity by YE25 >500,000 MMBtu capacity by YE25; 1,000,000 MMBtu run-rate by YE26 Maintained trajectory
LCFS PathwaysH2 20257 pathways approved; 4 pending 7 approved at avg CI -384; 4 pending via FASTER Tier 1 Maintained; execution underway
Tax Credits Monetization (45Z/48)Q4 2025Expect Q3/Q4 sales; recurring thereafter ~$12M ITC and ~$10M 45Z currently in sale process; planning ~$20M aggregate credits Timing pushed to Q4; scope refined
Keyes MVR Cash Flow ImpactMid-2026+$32M annual cash flow; NG use -80% +$32M annual cash flow; NG use -80%; construction Q4’25–Q2’26 Maintained
India IPOEarly 2026Target late 2025/early 2026; CFO hiring Target early 2026; CFO onboard; 20–25% sell; valuation range $100–$300M discussed Maintained; details expanded
Debt RefinancingH1 2026Deep in process; dependent on 45Z flows Refinancing of expensive debt targeted in H1 2026 as 45Z sales become quarterly Maintained timeline

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2 2025)Current Period (Q3 2025)Trend
LCFS pathway approvals & pricing7 pathways approved; LCFS prices rising to ~$60; 4 pending 7 pathways approved at avg CI -384; LCFS price up >25% since summer; cap $268 Strengthening monetization
45Z production tax creditsExpect recurring quarterly monetization; DOE model updates needed $10M 45Z in sale process; DOE calculation delay; potential retroactive uplift in 2026 Delayed near term; larger upside later
E15 in CaliforniaLegislature advancing E15; strong demand tailwind AB30 signed; >600M gal incremental demand; retail adoption mechanics discussed Material policy tailwind
Keyes MVR projectEquipment fabrication; NG -80%; +$32M cash flow (2026) Agreement executed; on-site construction Q4’25; completion Q2’26 On track execution
RNG capacity & operationsTarget 550k MMBtu YE25; 18 dairies funded; USDA-guaranteed financing +30% capacity added late Q3; 12 digesters operating; pipeline to >500k YE25 Scaling
India IPO & growthCFO hired; biodiesel resumed; expansion into ethanol/RNG Early 2026 IPO target; 20–25% sell; valuation $100–$300M; biodiesel allocation pending Advancing
Debt refinancingContingent on demonstrating 45Z cash flows H1 2026 target; multi-year 45Z/ITC offtakes to support Dependent on 45Z timing

Management Commentary

  • CFO: “Revenues of $59.2 million…are an increase of $7 million from the prior quarter…fulfillment of new India Oil Marketing Companies orders” .
  • CEO: “The MVR system…is expected to add $32 million to annual cash flow…we have signed $57 million of new equipment purchase and installation contracts…” .
  • CEO on LCFS: “Seven…LCFS pathways…at an average negative 384 carbon intensity…increased our LCFS credit revenue by 160%…” .
  • CEO on 45Z: “We do not show the cash received…until the 45(z) credits are sold…$10 million of 45(z)…in the sale process” .
  • CEO on E15: “Legislative approval of 15% ethanol blending…expected to increase demand…by more than 600 million gallons per year” .

Q&A Highlights

  • Ethanol margins and corn basis: Management noted lower corn costs and favorable rail, but volatile basis offset; strategy to materially cut energy costs via MVR and leverage low-CI power/RNG at Keyes .
  • E15 adoption mechanics: Expect competitive pressure to drive retailer conversion; ~$0.20/gal consumer savings cited; AB30 signed Oct 2 .
  • 45Z/48 monetization: Q3 lacked monetization due to DOE calculation timing and project in-service dates; plan to sell ~$10M 45Z and ~$12M ITC in Q4 and establish recurring quarterly cadence .
  • RNG capacity ramp: +30% capacity added late September; multiple digesters under construction to reach >500k MMBtu by YE25 .
  • Debt and refinancing: Expensive debt targeted for H1 2026 refinance supported by quarterly 45Z/ITC offtakes; lenders need visibility on recurring cash flows .

Estimates Context

  • Q3 2025 missed across metrics: revenue $59.2M vs $87.8M consensus; EPS -$0.37 vs -$0.21; EBITDA -$6.17M vs +$6.99M. Street likely to cut near-term estimates to reflect delayed tax credit monetization and lower-than-modeled India volumes; sequential improvement and Q4 credit sales provide partial offsets ; estimates from S&P Global.*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Bold miss on revenue/EPS/EBITDA vs consensus sets up estimate resets; monitor Q4 execution on 45Z/48 monetization to reframe cash flow trajectory ; estimates from S&P Global.*
  • LCFS monetization improving with seven approved pathways at CI -384 and rising LCFS prices; expect stronger RNG cash generation in Q4/H1’26 .
  • E15 approval in California is a structural tailwind for ethanol margins/demand; Keyes MVR should materially expand cash flow from mid-2026 .
  • India biodiesel recovery ongoing; near-term allocations and potential policy enforcement could support volumes ahead of early 2026 IPO (20–25% sell) .
  • Balance sheet/liquidity: cash improved to $5.6M; refinancing of expensive debt targeted H1 2026 contingent on demonstrated recurring 45Z cash flows .
  • Trading implications (near term): focus on Q4 credit sales closings, LCFS price trajectory, and any India tender announcements as catalysts for sentiment .
  • Medium-term thesis: integrated RNG + ethanol platform with policy tailwinds (LCFS, 45Z, E15) and efficiency upgrades (MVR) supports margin accretion and deleveraging if execution on monetization and refinancing stays on track .