Sign in
AI

AEMETIS, INC (AMTX)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q4 2024 revenue was $47.0m and diluted EPS was $(0.36); EPS beat consensus, but revenue and EBITDA missed by wide margins due to an India biodiesel tender gap and weaker ethanol pricing . Versus consensus: revenue $80.6m*, EPS $(0.42), EBITDA $(0.50)m; actuals $47.0m, $(0.35) (diluted EPS per SPGI actual), and $(11.25)m (Adj. EBITDA), respectively, marking a significant revenue/EBITDA miss and an EPS beat *.
  • Segment dynamics: Ethanol volumes rose QoQ (15.7m gallons) but average price fell ($1.93/gal); India biodiesel dropped sharply YoY ($22m → $3m) on tender timing; RNG monetization improved with initial LCFS credit sales and higher RIN volumes .
  • Policy catalysts: LCFS amendments in California (implementation delayed by OAL) and EPA moves toward nationwide E15; management expects LCFS pathway approvals by Mar/Apr 2025 with revenue uplift starting Q3 2025 if April timing holds .
  • Funding and capex: $17m cash received from sales of IRA investment tax credits in Q1 2025; USDA REAP loans ($75m) progressing to accelerate digester build-out; MVR at Keyes now targeted to operate in 2026 with up to $35m annual cash flow benefit, depending on LCFS/45Z .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • LCFS and policy momentum: Management highlighted CARB’s 20-year LCFS mandate update and EPA progress on E15, underpinning medium-term revenue expansion for ethanol and RNG .
  • RNG scale and credit monetization: RNG MMBtu sold rose YoY with initial LCFS sales (8.5k credits at $64.8/credit in Q4) and higher RIN volumes (987k at $2.7) supporting gross profit in the biogas segment .
  • Tax credit monetization and financing: Company sold investment tax credits yielding $17m cash in Q1 2025; advancing $75m USDA REAP loans to fund additional digesters (conditional commitments and approvals progressing) .

What Went Wrong

  • India biodiesel gap: Biodiesel revenue collapsed YoY ($22m → $3m) due to a pause in OMC tenders; Q4 volumes fell to 0.7k tons versus 18.3k a year ago, compressing gross profit and widening operating losses .
  • Ethanol pricing pressure: Average ethanol price dropped to $1.93/gal (from $2.20 YoY), and corn costs were elevated; Q4 adjusted EBITDA deteriorated to $(9.6)m despite slightly higher gallons sold QoQ .
  • LCFS implementation delay: California OAL delayed LCFS amendments’ effective date, causing a sharp decline in LCFS prices and pushing out the timing for higher credit revenues until CARB finalizes language (company expects 2–3 months, but uncertain) .

Financial Results

Quarterly Trend (QoQ)

MetricQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Thousands)$66,561 $81,441 $47,004
Net Loss ($USD Thousands)$(29,174) $(17,935) $(16,197)
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.66) $(0.38) $(0.36)
Operating Loss ($USD Thousands)$(13,606) $(3,872) $(13,476)
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Thousands)$(5,906) $1,459 $(9,612)
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Thousands)$234 $296 $898

YoY vs Estimates (Q4)

MetricQ4 2023Q4 2024 ActualQ4 2024 Consensus Estimate*Beat/Miss
Revenue ($USD)$70.8m $47.0m $80.6m*Miss
Diluted EPS ($USD)$(0.64) $(0.36) $(0.42)*Beat
EBITDA (Adj.) ($USD Thousands)$(5,704) $(9,612) $(502)k*Miss

Values with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment and Operating KPIs

KPIQ2 2024Q3 2024Q4 2024
Ethanol gallons sold (millions)14.8 15.5 15.7
Ethanol avg. sales price ($/gal)$1.99 $2.12 $1.93
WDG tons sold (thousands)105.0 106.0 105.7
WDG avg. price ($/ton)$89 $84 $83
Delivered corn cost ($/bushel)$6.36 $6.07 $6.08
RNG MMBtu sold (thousands)88.0 86.0 67.1
RINs sold (thousands)—935.0 987.3
Avg. RIN price ($)——$2.7
LCFS credits sold (thousands)—20.0 8.5
Avg. LCFS price ($/credit)——$64.8
India Biodiesel metric tons (thousands)20.4 26.0 0.7
Biodiesel avg. price ($/ton)$1,162 $1,198 $1,227
Refined glycerin metric tons (thousands)1.5 1.5 1.1
Glycerin avg. price ($/ton)$635 $720 $761

Key drivers: Q4 ethanol pricing weakness, reduced biodiesel deliveries on OMC tender gap, partial offset from RNG credits/RINs .

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
LCFS provisional pathways approval (RNG)2025 timingExpected “this quarter,” increased LCFS revenues starting Q2 2025 Approval expected Mar/Apr 2025; if Apr, revenue uplift shifts to Q3 2025 Delayed
RNG production capacity run-rate2025–2026~550k MMBtu exiting 2024; 1.0m MMBtu in 2026 ~550k MMBtu in 2025; expand to 26 dairies in 2025; 1.0m MMBtu in 2026 Maintained/clarified
MVR system (Keyes) cash flow impact2025–2026Install around Q3 2025; $15–$29m annual cash flow; ~$21m cost; ~$20m grants/credits Operating in 2026; up to $35m annual cash flow; ~$30m cost; ~$20m grants/credits Timing pushed; higher impact
45Z production tax credit (PTC)2025 startBegins Jan 1, 2025; guidance pending; material cash flow uplift anticipated Registrations approved; guidance released in Jan 2025; actively generating credits; ongoing Treasury calculation work Commenced; calculation pending
E15 approvals (EPA/California)2025Permanent approval expected early next year; CA legislative momentum EPA approved year-round E15 in 8 states; 49 states expected by end of 2025; California moving to enable Improved
USDA REAP financing2025Close next $25m; $50m more in process Draft conditional commitment for $25m; $50m additional in process; target $75m long-term financing Maintained
India biodiesel tendersQ2 2025 startAllocation expected; Q4 contribution to ease on timing New tender papered Mar 13; shipments expected in April; inventory ready Resumed

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q2 & Q3)Current Period (Q4)Trend
LCFS trajectory and implementationCARB vote slated; LCFS prices rising; bank drawdown projections; timing likely to slip past Q1 2025 OAL delay pushed implementation; expected 2–3 months but uncertain; management still constructive on price path to potentially high levels by 2027 Delayed but constructive
45Z guidance and monetizationJan 2025 start; strong cash flow potential across RNG/ethanol; awaiting IRS guidance Registrations approved; began generating credits in Jan 2025; further guidance expected; sold $17m investment tax credits YTD Progressing
RNG scale-up9–12 digesters; 16 dairies by YE’24; pathway approval to boost LCFS revenue; target 1.0m MMBtu by 2026 12 digesters processing waste from 16 dairies; provisional pathways near approval; 26 dairies targeted by YE’25 Accelerating
Ethanol margins and E15Near-term margin softening; export recovery; E15 approval supportive Q4 oversupply/high corn; Q1 improving via operational changes; nationwide E15 approvals advancing Mixed near-term; medium-term tailwind
India biodiesel (OMC tenders, IPO)Positive EBITDA; capacity expansion; expected new contract; IPO prep ongoing Tender restarted; shipments expected in April; IPO timing late 2025/early 2026 given delays Resuming operations; IPO pushed
Carbon capture (Class VI)Characterization well Phase 2 by spring; Class VI permit targeted 2026 State approval; conductor pipe done; continued regulatory support anticipated On track

Management Commentary

  • “In addition to achieving important operational milestones during 2024 in all of our business segments, we began generating valuable 45Z tax credits in January 2025, and E15 ethanol blends have already been approved by the EPA for eight states with approval for 49 states expected by the end of 2025.” — Eric McAfee, CEO .
  • “Revenues for the full year of 2024 were $268 million, an increase of $81 million compared to 2023, driven by significant growth in every business segment.” — Todd Waltz, CFO .
  • “Our LCFS provisional pathways for 7 dairies...are now in the final review and approval stage at CARB...approval in March or April...we would begin to show increased revenues and cash receipts...in Q3 of 2025 if April approval.” — Andrew Foster, President .
  • “The MVR system is designed to reduce fossil natural gas use by 80% at the Keyes plant and increase cash flow by up to $35 million annually...when we begin operating the system in 2026.” — Andrew Foster .
  • “A surprise delay occurred...the implementation of the amended LCFS was delayed by the California Office of Administrative Law...We expect...final adoption...later this year.” — Eric McAfee .

Q&A Highlights

  • REAP financing confidence: “We have a high degree of confidence in REAP...we’ve received direct information that we’re moving forward this month on our next $25 million REAP loan.” — CEO .
  • SAF financing and 45Z clarity: If 45Z guidance delays persist, management noted different capitalization treatments and that SAF economics hinge on 45Z and LCFS inclusion of jet fuel; ~$43m capitalized on project basis .
  • LCFS OAL delay: Expect 15–30-day comment period and potentially “a couple of months” timeline; uncertainty weighed on LCFS prices; Governor leadership may help expedite .
  • India OMC tender restart: New tender papered; shipments expected in April; existing inventory supports quick deliveries .
  • Ethanol fundamentals: Q4 was oversupply and high corn; Q1 expected better due to operational adjustments and seasonal turnarounds reducing inventory; EIA data suggests early signs of demand normalization .
  • D3 RVO expectations: EPA’s approach to retroactively adjust obligations for 2024 dampened RIN prices; investment signals for new D3 capacity remain challenged pending clearer policy .

Estimates Context

  • Q4 2024 result vs S&P Global consensus: Revenue $47.0m vs $80.6m* (miss); Diluted EPS $(0.36) vs $(0.42)* (beat); EBITDA (Adj.) $(9.6)m vs EBITDA consensus $(0.5)m* (miss) *.
  • Revision risk: Street models likely to lower revenue/EBITDA on biodiesel timing and delayed LCFS implementation offset by improved policy visibility and 45Z monetization potential .
    Values with an asterisk were retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term prints are pressured by biodiesel tender timing and ethanol pricing; however, medium-term catalysts (LCFS pathway approvals, broader E15 adoption, 45Z monetization) remain intact and could drive material uplift from H2 2025 onward .
  • RNG is the strategic growth engine: pathway approval and LCFS price normalization could materially increase cash receipts; target 26 dairies by YE’25 and 1.0m MMBtu in 2026 positions the business for scale .
  • Watch LCFS/OAL timeline: A faster resolution could reset LCFS prices higher and accelerate credit banking drawdowns—key for valuation of biogas cash flows .
  • MVR at Keyes is a large internal margin lever; while timing is pushed to 2026, the up to $35m cash flow benefit is significant and underpinned by grants/tax credits .
  • India biodiesel should rebound with April shipments; IPO timing pushed to late 2025/early 2026—monitor OMC tender sizes and feedstock cost dynamics .
  • Funding runway: $17m cash proceeds from ITC sales, plus pending USDA REAP loans, supports RNG expansion despite near-term operating losses and low cash balance at Q4 .
  • Trading implications: Post-earnings weakness may persist until tangible LCFS/OAL progress or India shipment resumption; catalysts include CARB pathway approval notices, EPA E15 expansion updates, and REAP loan closings .

Appendix: Additional Q4 2024 Financial Details

  • Q4 revenue fell to $47.0m (vs $70.8m YoY); gross loss of $2.0m; operating loss of $13.5m; net loss improved to $(16.2)m due to $12.3m tax credit sale recognized as income tax benefit; cash $0.9m at quarter-end .
  • FY 2024 revenue was $268.0m (+43% YoY); FY operating loss $(40.4)m; FY net loss $(87.5)m; LCFS/RIN sales contributed $5.4m gross profit in RNG segment; capex $20.3m during 2024 .
  • Q3 2024 revenue was $81.4m; gross profit $3.9m; adjusted EBITDA $1.46m; cash $0.3m at quarter-end .
  • Q2 2024 revenue was $66.6m; gross loss $(1.8)m; adjusted EBITDA $(5.91)m; cash $0.23m at quarter-end .