AW
American Well Corp (AMWL)·Q1 2024 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q1 2024 delivered $59.5M revenue, down 7% YoY and sequentially lower vs Q4; gross margin compressed to 31% and adjusted EBITDA was ($45.7)M, driven by one-time payer migration costs and a Change Healthcare disruption that temporarily suppressed visits .
- Converge migration accelerated: 68% of total visits ran on Converge (vs 52% in Q4), with ARPV rising to $77 on mix shift; management called Q1 the low point for subscription revenue and expects sequential increases through Q4 .
- Guidance reiterated: 2024 revenue $259–$269M, AMG visits 1.6–1.7M, and adjusted EBITDA ($160)M to ($155)M; preliminary 2025 guide calls for ~$335–$350M revenue and adjusted EBITDA ($45)M to ($35)M, with gross margin rising to >50% on higher subscription mix .
- Strategic execution: Behavioral health went live at DHA sites; large payer migrations (Elevance, Highmark) completed; renewals and an expansion at an East Coast Blue plan support reacceleration of bookings and higher subscription mix into 2025 .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Converge scaling: Visits on Converge reached 68% (vs 52% Q4), with strong client feedback and platform performance; scheduled visits rose to 63% of total, underscoring hybrid care evolution .
- DHA milestone: Digital behavioral health program went live at initial sites; enterprise rollout targeted for Q4, supporting the 2025 step-up in subscription revenue and margins .
- Commercial momentum: Renewals with Highmark, Intermountain, El Camino Health, Penn State, Cleveland Clinic, plus a sizable expansion with an East Coast Blue plan; “robust enterprise selling motion” emphasized to drive subscription mix .
- Management quote: “We are putting our re-platforming behind us and are optimizing our cost structure… We continue into 2024 with growing conviction around the value we deliver and the profitable growth that we aim to achieve.” .
What Went Wrong
- Top-line softness: Revenue declined 7% YoY to $59.5M; subscription revenue fell 9% sequentially to $24.9M as legacy platform declines persisted .
- Margin pressure: Gross margin fell ~300 bps QoQ to 31%, largely due to lower subscription/services revenue and one-time payer migration costs .
- Visit headwinds: Total visits (~1.67M) were modestly lower YoY; the Change Healthcare security breach and temporary migration disruptions prevented co-pay processing, throttling throughput in early Q1 before resolution .
- Expense friction: Sales & marketing and G&A rose sequentially on severance and stock-based comp vesting; adjusted EBITDA worsened to ($45.7)M (vs ($36.9)M Q4) .
Financial Results
Revenue, EPS, Gross Margin, Adj. EBITDA vs Prior Periods and Estimates
Note: SPGI Wall Street consensus for Q1 2024 was unavailable due to service limits; therefore, we cannot quantify a beat/miss vs estimates.
Segment Revenue Breakdown
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- “The guidance we gave on our last call described a 30% jump in our 2025 top line, reach with subscription software that will drive gross margin expansion to over 50%.” .
- “Visits on Converge were over 68%… we believe the first quarter was our low point for the year for subscription; subscription will increase each quarter in 2024.” .
- “You can expect to see the lion’s share of [DHA] impact in the fourth quarter… services revenue will come on in Q2 and Q3 in a meaningful way.” .
- “Our headcount actions will result in over $15M in compensation-related savings… we expect adjusted EBITDA breakeven in 2026 with a cash balance of approximately $150M.” .
Q&A Highlights
- Renewals and upsell: 3-year duration typical; expansions span virtual primary care, automated interactions (colonoscopies, diabetes), collaborative behavioral care via SilverCloud .
- Change Healthcare impact: Without the breach, visits would have been flat YoY; migration disruptions further dampened volume early in Q1 before remediation .
- DHA revenue cadence: Services revenue ramps in Q2–Q3; subscription-heavy revenue recognized with Q4 go-lives; project viewed as durable beyond 2025 .
- Go-to-market transformation: Shift to combined hunter-farmer model; fewer quota carriers with broader “end-to-end” portfolio; comp plans incentivize high-margin subscription .
- Demand environment: Health systems focus on ROI and operational efficiency; payers pushing digital-first and VPC; bookings reacceleration expected with Converge proof points .
Estimates Context
- Wall Street consensus (S&P Global) for Q1 2024 revenue and EPS was unavailable due to service limits; we cannot determine a beat/miss. Management reiterated FY 2024 revenue ($259–$269M) and adjusted EBITDA ranges and confirmed the 2025 step-up driven by contracted backlog and DHA enterprise rollout .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Converge adoption is accelerating (68% of visits), setting the stage for subscription-led margin expansion through 2025; expect sequential subscription revenue growth each quarter in 2024 from contracted go-lives .
- Near-term noise (Change Healthcare breach, payer migrations) depressed Q1 visits and margins; these were resolved and are not indicative of underlying demand or platform performance .
- 2024 remains a transition year with services revenue concentrated in H2 from DHA deployments; the “lion’s share” of revenue inflection should manifest in Q4 .
- 2025 outlook implies ~30% top-line growth and gross margin >50% on increased subscription mix; adjusted EBITDA improves ~70% to ($45)M–($35)M, de-risked by contracted backlog .
- Cost structure is normalizing: R&D trending mid-teens lower in 2024 (moderated by government customization) with >$15M comp savings; SG&A efficiencies expected to continue .
- Strategic positioning benefits from industry exits and consolidation; payers/providers increasingly prefer integrated hybrid care platforms and ROI-driven automation—AMWL’s partnerships (DHA, Elevance, Cleveland Clinic) are strong validation .
- Path to breakeven in 2026 remains intact with expected cash of ~$150M at breakeven; execution on DHA milestones and sustained bookings reacceleration are the key watch items .