Angi - Earnings Call - Q4 2020
February 4, 2021
Transcript
Speaker 0
Good morning, everyone. Len Schiffman here, and welcome to the IAC and ANGI Homeservices Fourth Quarter Earnings Call. Joining me today is Joey Levin, CEO of IAC and Chairman of ANGI Homeservices also Brandon Ridenour, CEO of ANGI Homeservices and Angelie Sood, CEO of Vimeo, will be joining the call. Welcome, Angelie. Similar to last quarter, supplemental to our quarterly earnings releases, IAC has also published its quarterly shareholder letter.
We will not be reading the shareholder letter on this call. It is currently available on the Investor Relations section of IAC's website. I will shortly turn the call over to Joey to make a few brief introductory remarks, and then we'll open it up to Q and A. Before we get to that, I'd like to remind you that during this call, we may discuss our outlook and our future performance. These forward looking statements typically may be preceded by words such as we expect, we believe, we anticipate or similar such statements.
These forward looking views are subject to risks and uncertainties, and our actual results could differ materially from the views expressed here today. Some of these risks have been set forth in IAC and ANGI Homeservices' fourth quarter press releases and our respective filings with the SEC. We'll also discuss certain non GAAP measures, which include adjusted EBITDA, which we'll refer to today as EBITDA for simplicity during this call. I'll also refer you to our press releases, the IAC shareholder letter and again to the Investor Relations section of our website for all comparable GAAP measures and full reconciliations of all material non GAAP measures. Let's jump right into it.
Joey?
Speaker 1
Thanks, Brian. I just want to correct one mistake I made there in the opening comments, which is repeated in reference to a call. It stuck a little bit in the past right now. I want to welcome everybody here to our video. Those of you who will be reading the transcript, you're missing out.
We've got the beautiful smiling faces of all of our analysts, Anjali, Glenn, Brandon coming from from Denver. And this is not just a a new way It's also a great display of what is really central right now or or the exciting story at IAC right now, which is Vimeo. And and the the the fun part of this is not just that we've got everybody on video, and we've got logos here and our names and and pyrons and things like that, which is pretty cool, all using Vimeo's live stream technology. But the other piece is this is just the beginning of this video journey with Vimeo.
So after this, it will be edited. It will be shared. It will be archived. It will be part of our corporate library, and we'll have access to that forever on Vimeo. And it's a it's a pretty cool display
And and, obviously, we're seeing that happen quite a bit all over the world now in in really fun and interesting and exciting ways, and I'm sure we'll talk about that today. And the other thing I wanted to to say is we had a great year in 2020, and we feel very good about how we did on a lot of different levels, a lot of different ways we measure ourselves. Of course, one big one is revenue and growing through 2020 is quite an accomplishment. And in any given year, we enter the year, and we have big ambitions over the course of the year to accelerate and where we finished the year growing 27% year on year in aggregate at IAC and the individual stories within IAC are really what matter there. But that growth in aggregate is something we're really excited about.
And the way that the team operated this year through all the things that were going on was really, really impressive. So that's the story I wanted to get. I know we've got a lot of people on here
Speaker 0
and we've got a lot
Speaker 1
of questions. So let's get to questions quickly. And Mark and Igo, why don't you lead us off there?
Speaker 2
Great. Thanks, Kelly. So for our first question, we'll go to Eric Sheridan from UBS.
Speaker 3
Thanks, everyone, and Happy New Year to the whole team. Hope everyone is safe and well. Maybe two questions, if I can. Joey, for you, maybe you can help to explain why a spin off of Vimeo was the right choice in entirety for both Vimeo and IAC? And maybe lay out some of your views about how you plan on repositioning IAC ex Vimeo on the equity side for the long term on the other side of the spin.
And maybe, Angeli, if I could sneak maybe one in for you. Obviously, a super interesting year for Vimeo on the demand side. How should we be thinking about you aligning investments and product innovation against what you learned in 2020 against what you're trying to do on sort of
Speaker 4
a five year view and grow Vimeo as a platform? Sure.
Speaker 1
On the IPOs, full spin versus partial spin, so you saw we raised capital in the private markets for Vimeo. I think that's all the capital that Vimeo needs for a while. And that was quick and easy and no real distraction for the team. And getting that done in in that way, I think, was allowed us to do what's important, which is focus on growing the business and handling team to focus on things like product and sales and marketing and not the fundraising side or the capital market side. And that got done the sort of function of an IPO or raising capital.
Then as it relates to partial verse verse entirely, what we wanted to do was get Vimeo out there on its own to have its own currency, to be unfettered, to be a clean, clear story on its own, and a complete spin is what accomplishes that. At any given point, you know, we get this question a lot of, well, are you is now the time on account of value, or is now the time on account of a lack of value or things like that? What the focus for us is getting the business out to be clean and clear and operating the best unfettered. And we think right now that Vimeo can do that, can stand on its own, can stand well on its own, and there's no reason to hold back piece at IAC. And IAC shareholders, of course, participate in all of that regardless in a very clean way.
The next question, important one, of course, what's next for IAC. We any time we're we're we've done a spin and we've been through a few of these, the the immediate next question is, okay. What's next? And every time also, it's a little bit of I don't I don't see a lot of of what's left in the cover there. And even that was as recently as the Match been and people not quite seeing Vimeo story as clearly as we saw there as amazing as it's played out.
Mean, even surprised us. We've got a great collection of businesses right now at IAC ex Vimeo. Angie, you're all quite familiar with, is is just a huge business in a huge category with a huge leadership position, And we've got a lot we're doing on the product side that we're very excited about to open up more of the market. Dotdash is starting to really come out of its shell and growing 33% last quarter and being a real business with real moats, we think, in the publishing category, which is something that previously didn't I didn't think was possible. In recent history, a lot of people didn't think
Speaker 4
was
Speaker 1
possible. We've got Care, which is relatively new for us, but we think can be a huge marketplace and a huge $30,000,000,000 $40,000,000,000 category, and I think there's ways to expand that category to the hundreds of billions. And, again, a huge leadership position, nobody really close there. And we've also got, as you know, we get this question a lot, but a large amount of cash, nearly $3,000,000,000 of cash that we're going to put to work. And we're going to put that to work with no rush, no urgency to buy things, no urgency to buy things in any particular market.
But, generally, with the same priorities we always have, which is, first, the businesses that we know that we own are going to be the first priority on capital because we can have a real fundamental advantage in acquiring something. And I think that applies both to new businesses in our existing categories and to share repurchases. Obviously, we understand our own business. Hopefully, we understand our own business pretty well. And then looking for new categories.
And, you know, I think, generally, strong preference for control positions. We do have a couple recent examples that have have worked out in minority positions. But generally, we're going to be focused on control positions. And hopefully, we'll enter a few new categories and likely on the earlier side of things, but we'll see. And we've got a pretty good stable of the whole range, meaning we've got early stage businesses and NurseFly and BlueCrew that we're really excited about right now, and we've got later stage businesses in ANGI and Dotdash that we're really excited about.
And all of those, I think, if we've got them in the portfolio right now, it's because we believe they have real potential.
Speaker 5
Eric, so to your question about incremental investment and product innovation at Vimeo over the next few years, And the thing that we've learned since the pandemic is just how much bigger the market opportunity is than what we thought. And we really believe our TAM is every professional, every team, every organization in the world who now need to use video to reach their customers and employees. And we've had so many organizations and businesses knocking on our door in recent months asking to use video in ways that we don't yet have the product for. So it's an early market. I think product innovation is where we will be focusing our long term investments.
And some of the things that we're trying to do is we want to be the single corporate video solution for any organization of any size to share content internally and externally. We have a great position now in certain parts of that. We can power town halls and trainings, but there are so many other ways that video is proliferating throughout organizations in everything from sharing product demos and creative walk throughs to rethinking how webinars work to making every interaction with video more engaging. And so we see lots of opportunity, and you'll see both our near term and our long term investments really designed to solve these needs. We'll also be investing in areas like sales and marketing on the sales side in the near term, expanding our sales force, both domestically and outside The U.
S. We see a big opportunity to increase our marketing spend, particularly on mobile, where we have an opportunity. We've been historically very web focused. And you'll also see us do things like diversify our acquisition channels by investing in areas like partnerships and in our free products. So it's an early market.
I think we have a great head start with a leading all in one software solution, but we want to turn that head start into a definitive lead, and we're excited with the capital and the focus to do that.
Speaker 2
Great. Our next question will go to Cory Carpenter at JPMorgan.
Speaker 4
Great. Thanks, Mark. I had two questions on ANGI. First for Brandon, could you give us an update on where you are just in terms of addressing your supply constraint challenges and how impactful you think some of your product initiatives could be this year? And then as a follow-up for Glenn, it will be good to hear your comments on some of the puts and takes to the January metrics that we got in the shareholder letter and then also an update on how you're thinking about the trajectory of the business through the year.
Yes, sure. Thank you. So the business performed pretty consistent with our expectations in Q4 and into January. A lot of the factors that have affected us since the start of the pandemic are still present. Our traditional business was, resilient, I think, in the face of these externalities.
But we've seen two things. I talked about these consistently over the past year. One is, we saw a pullback in small business advertising spend. And put simply, small businesses were paying a little bit less than they were before and spending a little bit less to meet new customers. And the other thing, which I said we had to accomplish was, to grow our sales force.
And we end we end the year with the biggest sales force in the history of the company. That is up 30% from the trough, we experienced in the middle of last year, as a result of just externalizing our workforce and and figuring out and learning how to onboard and train sales reps. So as we enter this year, we have large sales force. They're off to a great start. And the benefits of those incremental sales reps will accrue over the course of the year to provide more capacity.
Speaker 0
The other
Speaker 4
thing is just when and how does the spend from our existing customers normalize or get back to previous levels. I think that's a really difficult question to answer. The way we're approaching that is I think it makes rational sense that it normalizes, but we're not banking on that. We believe we can reaccelerate our traditional business, whether that happens or not, any respective of the timing of it. If it does happen, it will provide, obviously, a nice tailwind.
But through a larger sales force and through our own internal activities, we believe very firmly that we can get that traditional business accelerating from where we are today. Separately, we're very happy with the benefits fixed price delivered throughout Q4. When you look at the sort of modest acceleration in the overall business, most of that is a credit to the growth in fixed price. Not only is it sort of exceeding our expectations, but it had a nice counter seasonal effect where it's really quite strong in Q4 relative to the normal seasonal patterns of our traditional business. We expect that growth to continue strong throughout this year.
It does bring meaningful capacity to the market, the ability to serve more customers. So we're excited to see that grow and sort of be a counterbalance to the ebbs and flows of the way our traditional business works. And then on the product front, we a lot going on, both to supply just to address supply challenges but also meaningfully to pursue our most important goal, which is to develop a very large and strong direct to brand consumer audience. And simply put, we are trying to build the largest audience and most loyal audience of homeowners in the industry, and we think that is the fundamental thing we need to accomplish to build a very strong long term business. We've talked about, over the course of last year, lots and lots of innovation that we were able to bring to market in terms of new features.
And as we look forward to this year, we're very much in the early innings of fixed price. I know it's grown. It's $160,000,000 which is a bit ahead of where we thought we would be. We've got it over 200 projects, but we're very much in the early innings. There's a lot of innovation yet to come, both in terms of refining what that product experience is like, refining our ability optimizing our ability to price super accurately in every local market, and then ultimately to, through scale, improve the quality of the ecosystem.
Every bit that we grow larger, the product grows stronger through the benefit of more coverage, more providers, more history on the providers, which leads to higher fulfillment rates with our customers, which in turn leads to happier customers that repeat at a much higher rate. I think you probably all saw in the letter, we released some metrics that indicate the behavioral changes we're seeing in consumers to engage with these new products. The early results are very strong. Our path ahead is about getting more and more customers into these experiences, and that will be a big focus for this year.
Speaker 0
Thanks, Brandon. Just to translate that into numbers and the puts and takes for the year. Revenue in January was as expected. Recall last year, we changed from net revenue accounting to gross revenue accounting for a pre priced or fixed price business. And if you look back on the fourth quarter, that provided a lift of about $22,000,000 to our revenue.
So the fourth quarter grew revenue about 6%, again, to January and as expected. We still expect, as we talked about on the last earnings call, a 9%
Speaker 1
to 10%
Speaker 0
revenue growth for the ensuing quarters until probably the third, more likely the fourth quarter, as all the initiatives that Brandon spoke about begin to kick in. That's on the sale. Obviously, that's the scaling of fixed price, and that's on the other product innovations that we've been talking about for a while. In terms of the monthly metrics, I'll ask you as we report the monthly metrics this year. Just have one eye on the monthly metrics this year and one eye on the monthly metrics last year.
Because obviously, last year, there was a lot of volatility in respect of how SPs behaved due to COVID, how consumers behaved due to COVID. So February was our strongest month of the year last year. We grew 21%. And March, obviously, was flat, and April was even down. So you will see some volatility in the monthly metrics.
But again, we are very comfortable with the 9% to 10% quarterly growth, again, until the third and fourth quarter when we expect to hit our 20% targets. And then given all the work that Brandon and his team are doing, accelerate into 2022.
Speaker 2
Our next question, if we can go to Brent Thill from Jefferies.
Speaker 1
For Angeli, if you could talk through the confidence in the Vimeo trends that they're not temporary and how you're anticipating a post pandemic recovery?
Speaker 5
Sure. Look, we're obviously watching the demand trends carefully, and they are holding. You know, our sales pipeline is strong. January was the strongest we've seen, even even stronger than the peak of of the pandemic in March. Our days to close on our sales cycle have stayed short.
And on the self serve side, our highest tiers are growing, over 200% year on year in bookings. So certainly from a from a demand perspective, no signs of of a slowdown. But the bigger thing that we see is the use cases and our customers using video in ways that we would expect to ignore and in ways that are helping them drive better outcomes for their business. And there, we see it very clearly. You know, you've got companies like Starbucks and Lowe's, you know, training their store associates using video or Nike training their retail partners like Foot Locker in Europe.
And and when you see, you know, those organizations be able to reach their their associates in ways that are more engaging, more scalable at a fraction of the cost, you don't see them going away from that. Same with fitness studios, performing arts venues, cultural institutions. They're finding that they can access larger audiences than they ever could before, in some cases, the the the number of of audience that they have. And so we just don't see a rationale for why they would go back from that. And we see small businesses who are able to get higher clicks, more customers using video than image or text.
And by the way, that's in an environment where a lot of small businesses are shut down, and many more hopefully after the pandemic will come back. So just it gives us a lot of confidence that video is going to, you know, settle. We don't know exactly where from a demand perspective, but certainly at an elevated level than what we saw pre COVID. What that means for our growth trajectory, also hard to predict. Before the pandemic, we have said we expect to grow between 2030% in terms of revenue.
Obviously, if you look at the monthly metric, that no longer applies as a range. How much higher than that is what is hard to predict. But again, certainly expect to be growing faster than we anticipated before the pandemic started.
Speaker 0
The revenue recognition dynamics of this business, as you know, the SaaS based subscription business, that deceleration from where we are today, the north of 50% to the north of 30%, that will be staged in over the next few quarters. We'll probably bottom out in the fourth quarter. Maybe we'll come close to the 30% in the fourth quarter of this year. And then do expect, given all the product work we're doing, given all the investments we're doing across the year, we do expect to, again, accelerate from there into 2022.
Speaker 1
Thank you.
Speaker 2
All right. Next question, we will go to Ross Sandler from Barclays.
Speaker 6
Hey, guys. Just one for Glenn and then one for Anjali. So Glenn, yes, nothing more exciting for an IAC enthusiast than reading four eighty seven page spin documents. So thanks for dropping that during earnings season, by the way. But a question on the spin mechanics.
So it looks like IEC will get 88% of the deal will be spun out. There's a $6,000,000,000 in post money valuation right now or about 161,000,000 shares. So about 1,600,000.0
Speaker 4
or
Speaker 6
thereabouts Vimeo shares for each IAC share. Is that correct in terms of the ratio? And then what's the mechanics from here in terms of the time line? And then the second question for Angelie. I thought one of the more interesting data points was that 25% of Vimeo revenue comes from subs that you upsell to a higher tier, a higher price tier.
So can you talk about how you're working to convert more of that 200,000,000 free users into the 1,500,000 pay? And then within that 1,500,000, how you move them up? That would be great.
Speaker 0
I'll let me knock out the first one. Ross, that's impressive. But there's another 150 pages. I believe it was six twenty or six thirty page document. But no, in terms of timing of process from here, yes, we refiled the S-four earlier this week.
We as we respond to SEC comments, we'll probably refile it again in the next week or two when we'll drop in year end financials for Vimeo. And IC. And then hopefully, we'll navigate through the SEC process throughout the month of February. That should tee us up for mailing to shareholders in March and then have a shareholder vote potentially the March, early April and then hope to effect the spin sometime in April, worst case, early May. So early second quarter is the timing.
You I said, there's a great read of the document. We do own after the two capital raises, we do own 88% of Vimeo. We have about 146,000,000 shares of Vimeo, 86,000,000 shares of IAC. So the spin ratio will be 1.6 based on these current estimates. Obviously, that could evolve.
So every shareholder of IAC will get 1.6 shares of Vimeo, again, based on and then based on the $6,000,000,000 postmortem valuation that Vimeo last raised capital at, that obviously is a $35 stock price for Vimeo.
Speaker 5
Ross, on your question about upselling our free base, our free users into paid customers, we see a huge opportunity to do that, and a lot of our product investment is designed to unlock that. So a couple of things that we see. So today, I think about 60% of our paying subscribers start as free first, and then about 60% of our enterprise customers come from that free or self serve base. So already, you kind of have a freemium model. But you actually look at what you can do for free on Vimeo using video.
We see an opportunity to get every one of those free users to be creating content. So one of the things we've done is we've launched our Vimeo Create app and are offering a version of that for free to our user base. We recently launched a screen recorder tool called Vimeo Record, also free for our user base. And this is a way in which we are looking to really drive to the bottoms up product led growth by having employees, small businesses, just creating content, which is usually the biggest barrier to getting people to use video. And then from there, expanding to you you know, branding and customization, then upselling to a higher tier or security if you wanna put your content in in a in a secure portal or expanding team size.
You know, that's a that's a big opportunity. You'll see us do a lot to really be a sort of per seat or team driven model in the future. So we've got quite a few levers to kind of move that base. And, you know, if you just look at the base itself, nearly 70% of Fortune 500 companies have an account on Vimeo. And, you know, we have less than 4,000 enterprise customers today.
So it's a huge opportunity, and and we think the biggest unlock will be product and having the right mechanisms to both get people creating content for free and then the reasons to upgrade.
Speaker 2
Our next question will be from John Blackledge at Cowen. Great. Thanks. So two questions, one on Vimeo subs. Just curious what the mix of new subs was in 2020, Business versus Creative Pros?
And any color on the overall sub mix ending 2020, again, business versus creative pros? And then within business, the mix of enterprise versus SMBs, which I think Angeli just referenced enterprise subs, and how that could trend in 2021? And then on care.com, if you could just discuss the engagement metrics that you referenced in the letter and then perhaps frame the drivers of the business in the next three years. Thank you.
Speaker 5
On the video sub question, the vast majority of our new subscribers in 2020 are businesses. Within that, there's a good mix of smaller businesses all the way up to large organizations. But we're we very clearly know I think every year, we've kind of seen that mix shift away from pros towards businesses that has certainly continued and, in some ways, accelerated since the pandemic, and we expect that trend to continue. And then in terms of enterprise versus SMBs, our subvolume is much, much heavier towards the small business. And we don't if you look at our customers today, we don't have on the enterprise side, which is either this is anyone who our sales team has spoken to, that's around 4,000 customers.
But again, if you look at the actual users in the base, a lot of free and self serve customers are large organizations. And, you know, the way we're sort of thinking about it is how do we you know, if we have one user or buyer within an organization using our tools, how do we actually expand from there in a very seamless way so that other departments, other buyers, other teams can discover our products and use them? And so what you'll see on the enterprise side is both trying to land new customers within our existing base and through our sales team, but then also trying to expand within each organization so that Vimeo share, if you will, of how they're using video across that organization increases.
Speaker 1
Hey, John. On care, the the there's probably the best example is it also gets the the big change we made in product, but what we've started to do with caregivers is they're all certified. And what that means is it's actually harder to become a caregiver. There's there's there's more friction in the process of becoming a caregiver. And that, as you'd imagine, leads to actually a decrease in caregivers on the platform, which you'd say, initially, you know, bad news.
Good news is the the caregivers who are coming in are much more engaged, and the interactions that we're now seeing between the caregivers and the families is much more fruitful. So we can deliver fewer applicants to a given job and get more success in that job being fulfilled. It's it's happening actually to quite a meaningful degree, meaning there was a period where you would get dozens or even hundreds of of listings for a job when you would list it sort through less and and speak to fewer people and get success on that and be confident that the caregiver they're connected with is background checked and certified in the ways that they go through our process. And so sometimes, actually, we spend a lot of our time in our products trying to reduce friction. There's an area where we actually added friction to drive engagement, and and that seems to be working well so far.
Overall, the metrics, you know, I I'm sure a lot of you would would be in the same camp. Think about my family. We we haven't had a caregiver in the the house in a year. And in in a normal year, that probably would have been 30 times or 15 times or something like that. So we see less we actually see, again, less engagement from families right now given that the need for child care in going out and things like that is happening less.
But in retention, we're holding. And the reason we're holding retention is that I think people see the value in the product. They are optimistic that they can start using the product more. And but but right now, there's just less need for it. So it's I think, very encouraging to see retention holding.
When we think about the the future of care and the next few years,
Speaker 4
it's continuing
Speaker 1
to drive that engagement and driving that engagement, driving frequency, which means being relevant more often. So so picking up on those themes, making it very easy. So we've we've talked about this concept in other products, make it very easy to do something like instant book. So you're going out. You'll want somebody, and you need somebody quickly.
And knowing that the the the caregiver has met certain parameters that you set forth where you can instant book, or you can see the schedule of both the family and the caregiver. You can match those, and those schedules are accurate and up to date and reliable. When we have products like that, I think it drives subscription because you can add real value in the subscription. I think it drives engagement for both sides of the marketplace, and and things like that are gonna be important. The other thing that's that's really big, I think, over the next few years, and you'll see us start to talk about increasingly, which has been a real pleasant surprise for us, is we talked about a little bit in the letter is CareWork and the enterprise product.
I think that is just absolutely relevant and a necessity for most enterprises today. It's starting to think about how they can help with childcare or senior care for their employees. And we're seeing real growth in that business, exciting growth in that business. And I think we're going continue to innovate there in ways that will open up what I suspect will be a much bigger market than exists today.
Speaker 2
Thank you. Our next question, we'll go to Brian Fitzgerald at Wells Fargo. Thanks, guys. Maybe it's for Glenn and Brandon. ANGI, fixed price or pre price
Speaker 1
is roughly 10% of
Speaker 2
the business now. Where do you think that gets to longer terms? And then in terms of the long term margin structure, is that predicated on fixed price hitting certain thresholds? Then a quick housekeeping one. Can you remind us right now that the 200 products that are fixed price, what portion of the TAM do you assume that addresses?
Thanks.
Speaker 4
Yes. Great question. So yes, we're I think we finished at about 11% this year. I would say our internal target and our ambition is to get this to about half the size of the business. And the reason for that it's a little bit arbitrary, but the reason for that is that we believe that the two lines of business, our traditional business and the preprice business, are really synergistic.
As the preprice business grows, it really not only does it serve our customers better, but it ultimately increases our buying power, allows us to invest more in growing participation in the marketplace, and then both product lines really benefit from that. Separately, as I mentioned earlier, the bigger the pre price ecosystem gets, fundamentally, the better the service gets. The higher the quality, the better the reliability and ultimately, the better the transactional economics get as well simply because we're fulfilling at a higher rate and with a higher level of quality. So I think getting it to half the size of the business certainly our internal ambition in terms of the time frame to get there. It's tricky because our traditional business is large, and we do expect that traditional business to keep growing.
So we're looking at somewhere over a five- to seven year time frame, I think, is a reasonable guess. Obviously, you're projecting out pretty far on that. In terms of the 200 projects, I think that is right around I think that's in the ballpark of only onethree maybe or so, maybe a little bit over of the total addressable market for home services. Within that 200 projects, a lot of those are I think we said are around $50,000,000,000 TAM, which is only about 10% of the addressable market. Those are the ones that we have very high confidence in.
We understand the economics of. And the other part, which I talked about over the course of last year, were these higher dollar projects that were averaging more about $5,000 per ticket. The last time we talked, I said we were more in the early experimental phase, that we had some promising signs on the consumer side in terms of their willingness to buy, but we were still figuring out what it looked like to fulfill those kind of projects and what the economics would be. Where we sit today, our confidence has grown substantially. We are that is growing pretty quickly.
Obviously, we need consumers to buy. We've gotten comfortable with our ability to fulfill. And our real focus during this year is getting that higher that more valuable line of business contribution margin positive. We feel optimistic. I think we moved from, hey, this is an experiment to this is probably going to work, and it could be pretty big because it opens up a lot of additional addressable market.
Speaker 0
I think in terms of the long term margin structure, yes, I think fixed price does impact that. And I think the way to think about our opportunity, it's
Speaker 7
a 400,000,000,000 to
Speaker 0
$500,000,000,000 market. And in our traditional business, that revenue opportunity used to be our take rate. Now that we have fixed price or pre price, now that we have financing, now that we have additional products, we talked about subscription in the letter, I think we're now going after the full 400,000,000,000 to $500,000,000,000 opportunity. So the margin opportunity may be more muted on some of the larger consideration jobs, but obviously, the EBITDA opportunity is substantial. If we go back to our traditional business and the lower consideration jobs on fixed price, yes, our margin targets of 35% absolutely are achievable.
I think I've done this a couple of times, but to frame it up, sales and marketing are 50% to 55% of revenue. I think this past year, it was 52 product and development and G and A, 20% to 25% of revenue. This past year, it was 25%. You apply you look at that against our current 10% to 15% margin, and I think you have five to 10 points in the G and A and product development category, and you have 10 to 15 points in the sales and marketing category, that gets you to 35%. But again, as we scale the medium consideration jobs where our propane is a lot higher, materials are a lot higher component of the total, that's the $5,000 jobs, that's the $10,000 jobs, the 35% is the bridge too far.
But again, we've reframed our entire opportunity to go after the entirety of our TAM, the $400,000,000,000 $500,000,000,000 Our
Speaker 2
next question will be from Jason Helfstein at Oppenheimer.
Speaker 8
Yes. Thank you. Two questions. First for Angeli, maybe talk a bit about the behavior of your cohorts. So when you think about your 2019 cohorts, the way they acted in 2020, what drove the increase in the value of those cohorts?
When you think about what they did, any pricing changes you made, the way you were able to drive usage? And then second, Joey, maybe I want to dig a bit more into the use of cash, 3,000,000,000. I mean, in the letter, you did talk about a wish list for Dotdash. Historically, the content, digital media has been small for you. I mean, should we expect you guys to move much more meaningfully in that as there are assets that could be bought?
Or could it be more things to bolster or accelerate things like the care.com business or maybe perhaps more investments in gaming to follow what you've already done? Thanks.
Speaker 5
So on the Vimeo cohort behavior, you know, we're seeing two trends. One, our existing customers from prior cohorts are paying us more today than they were before. So our net revenue retention on enterprise has been increasing for seven consecutive quarters, And that's coming from some investment we're making in the product, expanding the use cases and sort of optimizing our sales motion. And then we also see that new cohorts in general are paying us more than in 2020 than the new cohorts were in 'nineteen and 'eighteen. And that's because we are seeing greater demand for our higher priced offerings, areas like livestream.
And as we shift the mix of our subscribers, more businesses looking for advanced marketing tools, analytics, customization, we just see that there's more desire to pay, willingness to pay for those features. And that's why, even on the self serve side, our two fastest growing plans are our two highest priced ones. And then the other piece, of course, is just general retention and product engagement. There we've been watching this very closely since the pandemic began, and we see no indication of deterioration in retention. Product engagement has been holding really strong.
And in some areas, like live streaming, has been higher among recent cohorts. And so, you know, this generally looks like a very solid, healthy cohort behavior, and there's also tons of room for us to go. And this is where, you know, we look at, again, the use cases we serve right now. We have so many customers asking to use Vimeo and video in a bunch of other ways. And the quicker we can get some of the things that we're working on in our road map out into the market, the quicker we'll be able to expand that net revenue retention even further.
Speaker 1
On, Jason, M and A and the cash, so Dotdash is a good place to start. We definitely are looking at businesses there, and I definitely think we can find some opportunities. Nothing imminent right now. But what what's driving us there is really just the success of the business stand alone and the success of the business on the acquisitions they've done so far. By the way, if we wanted to to call this a software business, which it's not, but if we wanted to call this a software business, their top 25 advertisers, a 100% of them renewed 2019 to 2020
So we would talk about, like, net revenue retention. They're they're over a 100% at that business, which is pretty impressive for a publishing business. And the reason that's true is because they have they perform. The the ads perform for advertisers, and we're still doing that with the, fewest ads, in the the competitive landscape. That starts to build a real competitive moat.
We're investing more in content than than than others, and we're monetizing it less while performing for advertisers. If we can keep that formula going, which I do believe we can, we can continue to add into that. The main way we're doing that is going to be organic growth, which is adding more content at the same level of quality, at the same level of freshness with all using all those same tools. And and we want to, in any given period, be investing significantly more in our content than than any of the the competition. But we find areas where we're and we've been looking for them, and we continue to find areas where we can add on a publication of site, a brand where we can we can kind of put this same system to work, and we've done that to a relatively small degree so far.
Mean, probably the biggest acquisition there is 20 or $30,000,000 or something like that. The the I think we can we can go bigger. It may be that it turns out there's nothing available. Maybe there's nothing available in our price range, but I do think that there's a lot of brands in this area that that could use help and where we'll try and bring that to bear. But I don't see it likely that, that's going to be a very large portion of the $3,000,000,000 of cash just given what's available.
So that goes back to the other things, which is where we're prioritizing the cash. Besides Dotdash, Care is a good one, although we just did an acquisition at Care, which seems to be working out very well. That bolsters the CareWork business and adds a bunch of customers and revenue there and where we think we can cross sell. That's not a huge acquisition for us, but a good one. My guess is probably not a lot more acquisition at Care as we digest that one and focus on the organic growth.
And then gaming is another area. Look, the numbers at that MGM right now inside of MGM are mind blowing. I mean, they're they're unbelievable growth, what we're seeing. The numbers that we saw in Michigan are really unbelievable. And that was a huge proof point for MGM because we have a huge offline MGM has a huge offline brand in Michigan, in in Detroit.
So that was a start with that was a market where we entered in the very beginning, which is obviously important. And it's it's a market where the the the whole system should work. And what we're seeing so far is it is working. And that's confidence for MGM, but it's also confidence for us in the category that this tailwind of a new market growing, of it being accepted and explored by a whole new base of users is something that is really interesting for us, for our capital. We talked about, know, I'm being able to look at this acquisition recently, which was public, and we've talked about we'd be willing to put capital into we were willing to put capital into that kind of thing.
And we're still open in this area, whether that's through MGM or otherwise. We're definitely still open in this area, and it's fun to see a category transforming so much and growing so much. And it's fun to see especially MGM's success, which was a big part of our thesis. Obviously, the recovery on COVID at MGM, who knows, is anybody's guess, but that MGM's in a safe balance sheet perspective, but then there's always this option, and, that option seems to be really exciting in there right now. I think that probably answers your question, Jason.
Speaker 8
Yes, that said, if you want, you can call Dadege AdTech because that's the back end zone right now. We
Speaker 1
yes.
Speaker 2
Our next question, can we go to Yani Yadgarian at Credit Suisse?
Speaker 9
Hey, guys. Good morning. So two questions for Brandon or Angie, if I may. So the first one is on supply side. So you guys have called out seeing some phenomenal kind of engaging metrics for early consumers using fixed price.
On the SP side, are you guys seeing similar kind of benefits to retention? What kind of like engagement are you seeing with SPs who are opting into your fixed price network versus your core lead gen business? And then second question, you guys intra quarter have called out some kind of price increases due to overwhelming demand on fixed price. Would love to hear some more details around that, the magnitude of those increases and how that may be impacting your economics on fixed price?
Speaker 4
Yes. Great question. So thanks, Johnny. On the SP side for fixed price, it's a completely different offering. And for a provider, the dynamic is exactly the opposite of our traditional service.
In the traditional service, providers are paying us. But with fixed price, we're paying providers, and we're going out and offering them a job. It's their choice as to whether that job is appealing and whether the price point is appealing or whether they have the availability. But there's really no downside for them. They either find it attractive and opt to do it and we pay them or they don't, and they pass it up and perhaps takes up on the next one.
As you can imagine, that dynamic makes it much more attractive and much easier to bring providers into our marketplace for these kind of jobs. And in general, the way we think about retention for providers is as long as we have a steady flow of demand for them, it tends to promote activity, right? And if we go a long stretch, we have a job for you today, but we don't have another job for you for two months, then a lot of times, those folks will go stale. And it's not so much that they're quitting the service. It's just that it's the nature of sort of keeping a constant flow of activity and how that promotes engagement.
So in general, the cost to acquire these providers is very low. As long as we have a steady flow of demand, retention is very high. And quite frankly, we really think about it differently than perhaps you would for an advertising business where retention really isn't pro retention isn't necessarily the main driver or the biggest issue. It's really about having enough pros and enough coverage and keeping up with the growth in demand. And as long as we're growing at the pace we're currently growing, it is a human driven task to go out and continuously get more and more providers to keep up with that growth.
And that's really the gating factor. It's just scaling. In terms of the price increase on fixed price, I guess, touching on exactly what I just said, we're constantly balancing incredibly fast growth in consumer demand with our ability to keep up with just going out and scaling and providing our provider coverage. And in particular, last year, because of some of the volatility created by the pandemic and at one point, thinking that things were falling sort of off the table and then seeing an incredible resurgence and reacting to a pretty big imbalance in our ability to keep up with providers, we adjusted prices up. We will adjust those down as appropriate given our ability to fulfill.
And right now, I would say that balance has improved a bit. We continue to get better at it and gotten better at it through the course of the end of last year. But that will be the dynamic for a while. As long as we're growing transactions in fixed price on the consumer side at a very high rate, we'll be stretching to keep up in terms of growing provider capacity over 200 projects in 400 plus markets. It's an enormous sort of scale challenge, and it's one I don't it's not going to go away for a while because we expect to grow fast for a while.
Speaker 1
Thanks, Ben.
Speaker 4
Thanks. Our
Speaker 2
next question, can we go to Agal Arunian from Wedbush? Hey, thanks guys. One question for Anjali and one for Joey. On Vimeo, Anjali, you touched on it a little bit on the e commerce side. You guys have partnerships with Shopify, with GoDaddy.
We've been hearing more and more about live streaming opportunities for direct to consumer companies around selling products. Can you talk about the opportunity there around e commerce a little bit more specifically? And then Joey, the color around MGM and online gaming was helpful. Can you talk about now that we're a few months into the relationship with MGM, how that relationship has worked, what you've kind of brought to the table, what they've brought and what you guys have kind of collaborated on together?
Speaker 5
For many, on the partnership side, we really think of partnerships as an acquisition channel and also a way to open up our market by exposing more businesses to the power of video on the platforms that they're on. And so, yes, we've announced, you know, native integrations or partnerships with GoDaddy, Shopify. I think more recently, Mailchimp and HubSpot were the last latest two. We've got others coming. We we are investing in partnerships.
And really, the key, the model that we're looking to scale here is natively integrating parts of our capabilities directly into these platforms and then having the ability for those customers to have a direct relationship with Vimeo when they want to do more. And we are seeing, I think, promising signs there, though it is still early and definitely a growth area for us. Within that, there's a couple of different buckets. There's live. There's website builders.
There's marketing and CRM software companies, and then there's ecommerce for sure. And and truthfully, we're looking at all of them as as really interesting areas to go into. E commerce, for sure, is one of the use cases we are seeing traction in. Our Shopify app is getting really great reviews, great engagement. And there, what we are allowing an ecommerce store owner to do is just very quickly automatically generate videos for their product detail pages just using the existing content that's on those pages and then the ability to edit and customize from there.
So I think you'll see us do more in in ecommerce for sure in helping businesses use video to, you know, sell their products, increase their conversion rates, etcetera. But it's not you know, that's one of the use cases across video that that we're focused on, and our partnership strategy is broader.
Speaker 1
On the MGM relationship, it's, I think, fantastic. We'll we are the leadership at MGM is great. Bill Hornbuckle, I think, a wonderful job with the business, and he's he's very keen on our help in in digital, which is obviously our experience. The we just hired a the MDM just hired a new CFO, John Halkyard, who's who's got great experience and seems fantastic. And the the it's a company with a very engaged board.
So they're they've been they've been wonderful to work with. And our job there our view of our job there is just to help and be available when they need us. And if that means looking at things on digital and opining, great. If that means helping recruit talent, we help bring some people into the company, and we'll continue to help bringing people into the company in areas where we have a good network. Hopefully, that that continues.
The the really, when you think about it, it's just, I think, helpful to have a very big shareholder with deep pockets and a long term commitment because we can have very open and valuable conversations with MGM leadership and management that says here where we can be supportive. We can put capital behind things. We can put our whole organization behind things in terms of teams and work. And I think that's been hopefully, I I mean, I you you can certainly ask them, but, that's been additive and productive, and it certainly has been from our perspective, and and we hope that continues. I mean, when we're in something for a very long term with that amount of capital, we're going to put a lot of attention to it and again, do it in whatever ways that we can be helpful where they want us.
And hopefully, that continues to work as it has been so far.
Speaker 2
Thanks so much. Our next question, can we go to Kunal Madhavar at Deutsche Bank?
Speaker 10
Thanks, Mohit. Thanks for taking the questions. A couple on ANGI, if I may. One, with regard to fixed price versus the traditional marketplace business, looks like the marketplace business was flat in 2020 year over year. Wanted to understand if you are deliberately funneling customers along the fixed price route in order to kind of get scale in that side.
So that's one. Second, as we look at the guide that Glenn just talked about in terms of 9% to 10% growth in the first two quarters and then getting to a 20% by the fourth quarter. As we look at, like, the comps, the comps get easier in the second and third quarters, and then it gets slightly tougher in the fourth quarter. So as as as we look at the guide versus the comps, can you help us reconcile in terms of what is driving the confidence in your ability to get to the 20% growth in the fourth quarter and not in the second when the comps get much easier? Thank you.
Speaker 4
Thanks, Kunal. So in terms of funneling customers to fixed price versus our traditional business, every customer that comes into our marketplace in the projects where we offer pre priced services is really has a choice. They can connect with a local provider and that monetizes through our traditional matching business or they can engage with the pre priced on demand offering and purchase the service directly. The truth is we've had and continue to have during twenty twenty more customers than we can service through both sides of this business. And there's really no the reason with our traditional business that was growth was pretty moderate last year year over year It was largely driven by the fact that small businesses have pulled back on spending, and that is really just an indication of their ability to handle more customers.
The pandemic has affected those small businesses in
Speaker 1
a variety of ways, and
Speaker 4
we just saw, broadly speaking, those small businesses pull back on the amount of money they're willing to spend to meet new customers. The best research it's a complicated topic. The best research I've seen on the industry says that most of these small businesses expect to grow their ad spend in 2021. As we all know, the future is difficult to predict at the moment. But it is not that is not an artifact of us funneling people one way or the other.
We have an excess of consumer demand for services is the reality. And then Glenn, do you want to take the question on comps and the guide?
Speaker 0
Yes, sure. Look, our confidence is more of a couple of things. One is the growth in sales force that Brandon spoke about earlier. And as we've talked about in the past, it takes six to nine months really for that sales force to kick in. It's also the growth initiatives that we've talked about and fixed price continuing to scale.
But the biggest issue is the world has to get back to normal. These SPs whose businesses have been impaired, either their ability to hire people, either their supply chain, their the issues that we've all seen with supply chain and people being comfortable to have SPs come into your home. The world has to get back to normal for us to pierce through that, and we expect that it will. And then also, as Julie talked about in the letter, SPs right now are inundated with demand, of course, some from our platform and some on their own. And as SRs, we think, will moderate over the course of the year, we think monetized transactions, obviously, will go up and will be the beneficiary of that.
We have a great aggregate amount of demand and a great top of the funnel aggregate amount of supply. And now we've got to remove the friction, and now we've got to match that. And our monetization metrics, we think, will strongly follow that.
Speaker 1
Mark, thanks
Speaker 4
the one.
Speaker 2
Thanks, Dan. Sure. So our last question will be from Youssef Squali from Truist.
Speaker 7
All right. Thank you, and thanks, Mark, for squeezing me in. So two quick ones for me. I guess I just want to double click on ANGI with Brandon, if I may. So just trying to think through kind of the gating factors to take me from 200 jobs to even a greater number and maybe attacking the entire TAM and the pace for that.
Can you speak to the contribution margin of that business of the prepaid versus or prepriced versus the rest? Are you getting are you at a point where you are already at somewhat a parity between the two? Or does that not even factor necessarily in the equation for you to aggressively push on the accelerator there? And then on the and maybe one quick question for Angelie. The team has historic and you've touched a little bit on that earlier,
Speaker 8
but I want to dig a
Speaker 7
little deeper. The team has historically talked about the Vimeo opportunity as a 20% to 30% grower over time with about a 20% plus segment EBITDA margins over time. As you become independent, as you go out and address your own set of investors, What is the message, I guess,
Speaker 2
as a SaaS company, a
Speaker 7
lot of SaaS companies talk about rule of 30, rule of 40, rule of 50, which is your growth rate plus your operating margin or EBITDA margin. Can you just speak to how you look at it? And how will you guide basically once you have an opportunity to do so? Yes.
Speaker 4
Thanks, Lisa. That a quick question. On the ANGI question, so for fixed price, we have a lot of projects covered that are lower value, lower ticket price. And we feel extraordinarily confident about the long term margin profile of those project types as they mature. And they cover in excess of $100,000,000,000 of TAM alone.
So there's a tremendous amount of room to run-in terms of growth just in those project types. There are higher value projects that I referenced earlier that are around $5,000 a ticket. And we've been more in experimental mode with those. But at this point, we feel pretty confident that we can drive growth there with good economics. We'll still prove that out during this year.
In terms of getting to more TAM, it's really in this latter bucket. We started with a subset of projects and are going out and getting good at them, if you will. And as that playbook proves successful, we'll essentially go out to more and more of those larger projects and continue to offer more of a pre priced offering. So in terms of how much of the $400.500000000 dollars do we ultimately get to, I don't know for sure, but I certainly feel comfortable and confident that we're going get to well beyond half of that as our addressable market with pre price and perhaps well beyond half. It will take time and iteration to get good at each of the project types.
It's not a cookie cutter process where the exact same method works for every project type. There's some learning integration involved.
Speaker 0
Yes. And then on contribution margin, in aggregate, our fixed price or pre priced business is contribution margin positive. We passed that in 2020. Obviously, the path to profitability is the investments we're making to scale that. But importantly, the contribution from our fixed price business is greater than the contribution we get from an equivalent SR.
And that's what excites us. That's what helps us reframe this opportunity about going after the entirety of that 400,000,000,000 to $500,000,000,000 market.
Speaker 5
Look, I think we think about the business like any SaaS company would. We were I think it was a Rule of 40 SaaS business in 2020. We were a Rule of 50 SaaS business in Q4. Hard to say what near term 2021 will look like as we lap the pandemic. But in terms of long term growth on top line, as I said, our original range of 20% to 30%, we think it's conservative.
Hard to say how much higher we'll be above that, but we certainly think we'll be better off than we were pre pandemic. And then on margins long term, I think we said around 20%. Do we think we can do better than that? Yes. Is there a goal in the near term to be profitable right now?
No, we don't see any reason to do that. We're investing in growth. And we are focused on our unit economics. LTV to CAC is strong right now. We are increasing gross margins.
We've crossed 70%, and think there's room from there. So we'll keep focusing on improving margins and keeping our unit economics solid. But otherwise, early market, lots of opportunity for growth, and it's all going to come down to building the right products for our customers.
Speaker 0
Youssef, one other thing I'd add as people think about Vimeo, I'd also focus on the free cash flow because despite the investment year we're having this year at Vaneil and the investment year sorry, the investment year we had in 2020 and the investment year we're going to have in 2021, as you'll see in the S-four, we still generated over $30,000,000 of free cash flow. And that's not given the revenue recognition dynamics, given our bookings, that number is not going down. So I think that's an interesting way for people to think about calibrating the EBITDA and the throughput with the revenue growth.
Speaker 7
That's great color.
Speaker 1
All right, everybody. We will run over on time. Thank you for joining us. It's fun to have watched the entire Sunrise and Brandon's background here in Denver, and we've got a new day starting. Talk to you all soon.
Bye.