Q3 2024 Summary
Published Feb 7, 2025, 7:58 PM UTC- Potential for Increased Gas Production and Cash Flow in Egypt: APA has reached an agreement to increase the contractual natural gas price on incremental volumes in Egypt, making gas exploration and development economically competitive with oil. They have added one rig focused on gas exploration, tapping into significant underexplored gas potential with existing infrastructure in place. This could lead to increased gas production and enhanced free cash flow. ,
- Significant Cost Reductions and Synergies from Callon Acquisition: APA has effectively integrated the Callon assets and is achieving cost synergies beyond initial expectations. They have eliminated the full Callon G&A cost and are targeting a 10% to 15% reduction in per unit LOE, G&A, GPT, and interest costs in 2025. This enhances operational efficiency and free cash flow generation. ,
- Ability to Sustain Production with Lower Capital Expenditure in the Permian: APA plans to sustain Permian oil production at around 130,000 barrels per day with a reduced rig count of 8 rigs (down from 9), reflecting operational efficiencies and cost-effectiveness. Despite a softer oil price environment, they are focused on maintaining production volumes while generating free cash flow. ,
- APA faces significant asset retirement obligations (AROs) in the North Sea totaling $1.2 billion after-tax, with approximately half to be incurred by 2030, which could strain cash flows and impact financial flexibility.
- Production in the North Sea is set to cease by December 31, 2029, due to new emissions regulations and the impact of the Energy Profits Levy, potentially reducing future revenues.
- Gas production in the Caser field in Egypt is on decline, and it is uncertain if new programs can offset this decline, which may affect APA's overall production and revenues in Egypt.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | Up ~10% (from $2,308M to $2,531M) | Higher U.S. revenues and improved commodity pricing drove overall revenue growth, partially offset by lower international contributions. The prior period’s lower U.S. production volumes were surpassed due to new well additions and acquisitions. |
U.S. Segment | Up 36% (from $855M to $1,167M) | Increased drilling activity and synergies from recent acquisitions boosted oil production and realized prices, contrasting with subdued activity levels in the prior period. |
North Sea Segment | Down 67% (from $419M to $137M) | Operational challenges and planned turnarounds reduced production, whereas the prior period benefited from more stable run times. Weaker realized prices also compounded the revenue decline. |
Egypt Segment | Down ~6% (from $805M to $754M) | Slightly lower oil prices and deferred drilling activity reduced revenues compared to the prior period, which saw steady production gains. Continued focus on free cash flow and cost management limited further declines. |
Operating Income (EBIT) | Down from $1,048M to -$143M | Higher expenses and one-time charges (including transaction and reorganization costs) offset revenue gains. In the previous period, stronger realized prices and lower costs contributed to higher EBIT. |
Net Income | Down from $459M to -$223M | Increased depreciation, depletion, and amortization plus non-core charges and weaker North Sea performance outweighed revenue improvements. The prior period benefited from higher commodity prices and fewer special items. |
EPS (Diluted) | Down from $1.49 to -$0.71 | Lower net income stemming from operational and one-time charges drove EPS down, whereas the previous year saw stronger commodity pricing and higher margins. The shift to negative earnings per share reflects the impact of those charges. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
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Capital Expenditures | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | $2.2–$2.3B (U.S., Egypt, North Sea) + $200M Suriname + $100M exploration | no prior guidance |
Rig Count | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | 8 rigs in the Permian Basin, 12 rigs in Egypt | no prior guidance |
North Sea Production | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Expected ~20% decline year-over-year | no prior guidance |
Cost Guidance | FY 2025 | no prior guidance | Per-unit LOE, G&A, GPT, and interest costs down 10–15% year-over-year | no prior guidance |
Metric | Period | Guidance | Actual | Performance |
---|---|---|---|---|
Egypt Production | Q3 2024 | Expected to remain flat | 754 million | Met |
North Sea Production | Q3 2024 | Q3 decrease and Q4 rebound | 137 million | Met |
Free Cash Flow | Q3 2024 | Anticipated substantial increase in the second half | Approx. 1,069 million (derived from Net Income −223+ Non-cash items 1,312+ W/C 73− CapEx 93) | Met |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
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Egypt production | Emphasized flat to slightly down production outlook, managed by rebalancing rig counts and waterflood projects. | Slight decline in gross oil output; maintaining 12 rigs and focusing on waterflood to sustain volumes. | Consistent topic with a sustained approach to flatten declines and improve stability. |
Gas expansions | Negotiations on higher gas prices and potential gas projects previously mentioned; expansions were contingent on improved economics. | Added a gas-focused rig in Egypt under a new gas price agreement, targeting low-hanging fruit for incremental volumes. | Ongoing focus with greater clarity under a new pricing framework, spurring more gas activity. |
Permian production | Consistently strong performance; meeting or exceeding guidance, with robust oil growth and plans for 9–11 rigs. | Sustaining ~130 Mbbl/d oil output with an 8-rig program; curtailing gas at Alpine High due to weak Waha prices. | Still a main driver; short-term curtailments but continuing as a centerpiece of U.S. operations. |
Integration of Callon acquisition | Synergy estimates rose from $225M to $250M, spanning overhead, operational, and financing; emphasis on capturing efficiencies quickly. | Integration largely complete, ~$250M in cost synergies realized; debt reduction efforts a key focus. | Advanced from partial to near-full synergy capture; now prioritizing debt paydown. |
Suriname exploration progress | Consistent year-end 2024 FID target; prior calls also indicated first oil by 2028 with further technical work ongoing. | Progress toward FID on Block 58 with a $10.5B gross cost; potential first oil around 2028. | Increasing detail on cost and timeline; poised for long-term growth impact. |
Alaska exploration results (King Street) | Discovery at King Street validated the petroleum system; past calls highlighted high-quality sands and acreage expansion. | Preparing to spud another well in early 2025, with ~300,000 acres of largely state land. | Ongoing enthusiasm for exploration; moving from discovery to further appraisal. |
North Sea and Gulf of Mexico AROs | Prior updates showed $815M Fieldwood-related GOM exposure and partial references to North Sea abandonment timing. | Detailed a $2B North Sea ARO liability with a $1.2B NPV after tax benefits; no GOM update. | Greater clarity on North Sea costs; GOM largely static in current disclosures. |
Shareholder returns vs debt reduction priorities | Historically returning ≥60% FCF to shareholders; emphasis on paying down debt post-Callon acquisition and targeting credit rating improvements. | Prioritizing debt reduction with proceeds from asset sales; shareholder returns still governed by ~60% FCF framework. | Heightened focus on lowering leverage, though shareholder distributions remain important. |
Commodity price environment | Significant Waha differentials in prior quarters, with some negative pricing episodes; curtailment strategies to preserve value. | Weak Waha pricing led to short-term production curtailments; extreme volatility noted at times. | Continuously challenging Waha hub dynamics remain a key operational and marketing factor. |
Evolving sentiment on sustaining production vs pursuing growth | Balanced discipline across earlier quarters, with rig count adjustments to sustain output and avoid overspending. | Maintaining stable volumes in Permian and Egypt, cautious about adding rigs in a soft price environment. | Steady shift toward production stability over aggressive expansion in near-term plans. |
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Egypt Gas Program Impact
Q: How will the Egypt gas agreement affect cash flow?
A: The new gas price agreement in Egypt allows us to earn higher prices on incremental gas volumes, aligning gas exploration economics with oil. We can't disclose specifics yet, but you'll see the benefits in future results, and we'll provide more details in February. -
North Sea ARO and Cash Flow
Q: What's the impact of North Sea decommissioning on cash flow?
A: We have a net liability of $1.2 billion for North Sea asset retirement obligations. About 50% of this will be spent by 2030, starting with less than $100 million annually, increasing over time. This spend won't show up as capital but will affect free cash flow. -
Cash Return Timing
Q: Is the lower cash return this quarter just timing?
A: Yes, it's a timing issue. We had material things in the works that limited market activities, but we remain committed to our cash return strategy. -
Cost Reductions and Synergies
Q: How are you achieving lower costs and synergies?
A: We're realizing significant cost reductions from the Callon acquisition, exceeding the $90 million G&A synergy target. We've cut almost $1 million per well in well costs through supply chain efficiencies. -
Sustaining Production with Fewer Rigs
Q: Can you sustain production with reduced rig count?
A: Yes, we plan to sustain Permian oil production at around 130,000 barrels per day with 8 rigs, down from 9. In Egypt, 12 rigs (11 oil, 1 gas) will broadly sustain production. -
Permian Gas Pricing Outlook
Q: What's the outlook for Permian gas pricing?
A: Current price extremes are due to temporary pipeline maintenance. We expect improvements as maintenance concludes, and with additional takeaway capacity like Matterhorn coming online. -
Portfolio Strategy and Growth
Q: Do you need another asset given North Sea decline?
A: Our portfolio is strong with the Permian and Egypt as core assets, and Suriname production starting in 2028 adds significant growth. We're also exploring in Alaska. -
Suriname Development
Q: What's the key takeaway from the Suriname project?
A: The Suriname project is real and progressing, with visibility to volumes in 2028. The slide illustrates the development, including the FPSO placement and future tiebacks. -
Alaska Exploration Outlook
Q: How is the regulatory outlook in Alaska?
A: Our activities are on state lands, minimizing federal regulatory hurdles. We're excited about the upcoming exploration well spudding early next year. -
Gas Marketing Benefits
Q: Will gas marketing benefits continue next year?
A: It depends on Waha gas prices and spreads to the Gulf Coast. Volatility can create significant opportunities, as seen this year when prices went negative, enhancing our margins.