AP
Artisan Partners Asset Management Inc. (APAM)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 revenue rose 7% q/q and 8% y/y to $301.3M, while adjusted operating margin expanded 450 bps q/q to 36.2% on lower fixed expenses; GAAP operating margin was 33.8% vs 28.2% in Q2 .
- Adjusted EPS beat consensus ($1.02 vs $0.97*) despite a slight revenue miss ($301.3M vs $304.4M*), driven by margin expansion; GAAP diluted EPS was $0.93, impacted by a non‑cash $10.7M tax charge from new legislation (OBBBA) .
- AUM reached a record $181.3B (avg AUM $177.4B), with net outflows of $2.3B this quarter; management cited rebalancing in wealth programs and ongoing outflows in a few large equity strategies, partly offset by strength in EM and Credit .
- Dividend was raised to $0.88 (+21% q/q) and management flagged typical Q4 seasonality:
$900M of mutual fund distributions not expected to be reinvested and potential performance fees similar to 2024 ($17M) as year‑end measurement approaches .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Margin execution: Adjusted operating margin expanded to 36.2% (31.7% in Q2) as fixed expenses declined and revenues rose; CFO: “Revenue growth… and lower fixed expenses led to margin expansion of 450 bps and a 23% increase in earnings vs Q2” .
- Record scale and diversification: AUM hit $181.3B with strong strategy performance breadth; CEO highlighted platform diversity (equities, credit, alternatives) and multiple strategies with >20% YTD returns and positive relative performance .
- Capital return and balance sheet: Variable dividend increased to $0.88; cash was $300.2M, leverage ratio 0.4x; $50M Series G notes issued at 5.43% to refinance maturing notes, preserving flexibility .
What Went Wrong
- Organic pressure: Net outflows of $2.3B this quarter (vs $(1.9)B in Q2), with three sizable rebalances in intermediated wealth affecting International Value and International Small‑Mid; trailing 1‑yr underperformance in some large equity strategies weighed sentiment .
- Slight top‑line miss vs consensus and no performance fees in Q3; performance fees typically accrue in Q4 (only ~3% of AUM has fee components) .
- Regulatory/tax headwind: Enactment of OBBBA caused a non‑cash $10.7M tax charge in Q3 and is expected to lift GAAP/adjusted effective tax rates by 1%–3% starting in 2027 .
Financial Results
Values with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
Segment/Vehicle AUM and Flows
KPIs and Other Financials
Non-GAAP notes: Adjusted measures exclude (among other items) market valuation changes in comp plans, investment product gains/losses, non-recurring expenses, and the OBBBA deferred tax adjustment; reconciliations provided by the company .
Guidance Changes
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Revenues increased 7% from last quarter… Our operating margin… improving meaningfully to 34% or 36% on an adjusted basis… quarter end AUM of $181.3 billion, our highest ever quarter-end AUM” .
- CEO on flows and strategy: “While we experienced $2.3 billion of net outflows in the quarter, business-development momentum is improving… We are capitalizing on the resurgence of interest in emerging markets… renewed and growing interest in [Global Equity/Value]… growing and diversifying the Credit team’s business” .
- CFO: “Revenue growth… and lower fixed expenses led to margin expansion of 450 basis points and a 23% increase in earnings compared to [Q2]… Adjusted net income per adjusted share was up 23% q/q and 11% y/y” .
- CFO on Q4 setup: “We anticipate approximately $900 million of… distributions will not be reinvested… We are currently projecting total performance fees similar to… 2024… [~3% of AUM has performance fees]” .
Q&A Highlights
- Non‑U.S./EM demand: Broadening interest across global mandates and EM (equity and credit) with positive flows and strong relative results; some peers’ PM changes create “money in motion” .
- Distribution reorientation: Sales‑oriented comp, doubled field team, UK wealth/Middle East expansion, and dedicated capital formation initiatives; vehicle modernization (models/SMAs/ETFs/semi‑liquid/private) underway .
- M&A/lift‑outs: Active in real estate, private credit, secondaries; deals not transformative; flexible consideration (cash, stock, leverage) with preference for cash given deal sizes .
- Outflows/rebalancing: Three large rebalances in intermediated wealth (Intl Value, Intl Small‑Mid); one small Australia termination given local regulatory shifts toward passive/in‑house .
- Expense outlook: 2025 fixed expense growth tracking mid‑single digits, possibly slightly better; 2026 budget ongoing .
Estimates Context
- Q3 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus: revenue $301.3M vs $304.4M* (slight miss); adjusted EPS $1.02 vs $0.97* (beat). Beat driven by q/q revenue growth and expense control (fixed expenses down slightly q/q), expanding adjusted margin to 36.2% .
- Implication: Models likely need higher margins and adjusted EPS, but modestly lower near‑term net flows and slightly lower revenue trajectory vs prior consensus until flow momentum improves; Q4 seasonality (distributions not reinvested, performance fees) adds volatility to top/bottom line .
Values marked with asterisks (*) retrieved from S&P Global.
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Margin leverage is working: Adjusted operating margin expanded to 36.2% on modest top‑line growth, supporting the EPS beat despite slight revenue miss .
- Scale and diversification provide resilience: Record AUM ($181.3B) and breadth in equities/credit/alternatives help offset rebalancing/outflow pockets .
- Wealth channel execution is the swing factor: Expanded sales footprint, vehicle modernization, and targeted campaigns (e.g., EM) are beginning to gain traction—watch gross sales inflection over coming quarters .
- Near‑term noise in Q4: Expect ~$900M of fund distributions not reinvested and variable performance fees (likely similar to 2024) to shape 4Q reported metrics .
- Dividend remains attractive and variable: $0.88 declared (~80% of cash generation), with potential year‑end special from retained cash and seed gains .
- Tax headwind from 2027: OBBBA lifts effective tax rate by 1%–3%—incorporate into LT EPS valuation frameworks .
- Strategic optionality: Real estate/private credit/secondaries opportunities are pipeline catalysts; management intends disciplined, non‑transformative bolt‑ons .