APLD Q4 2025: Breaks ground on new campuses; advanced hyperscaler deal
- Accelerated campus expansion: Management confirmed that work has already started on additional campuses—with potential for breaking ground on one or even two new campuses before year-end and significantly reduced build times—which indicates a strong operational execution and accelerated revenue ramp-up.
- Robust hyperscaler pipeline: The company is in advanced negotiations with an investment-grade North American hyperscaler and is actively engaging with several others, reflecting strong demand and a diversified, growing customer base in a market poised for AI and HPC expansion.
- Favorable financing conditions: The project financing is coming in as expected with competitive terms (e.g., low cost financing with attractive loan-to-cost ratios) and dependable professional service partners, supporting continued growth and scalability.
- Construction and fit-out delays risk: Executives acknowledged that the current construction timelines, including potential delays in building ramp-up and fit-out (with penalties for late delivery), could negatively impact revenue recognition and project schedules.
- Dependence on external service providers: The Q&A highlighted reliance on consultants, legal teams, and banking partners—factors that may slow progress, particularly during seasonal industry slowdowns, thereby increasing execution risk.
- Uncertainty in hyperscaler lease negotiations: While there are advanced discussions with a limited group of investment-grade hyperscalers, the complexity and lengthy approval process for these large lease agreements present uncertainty regarding timely deal finalizations and future revenue growth.
Metric | YoY Change | Reason |
---|---|---|
Total Revenue | 7% up to $3.2B [N/A] | Total Revenue increased by 7% YoY as the company built on previous periods’ gains by further expanding its datacenter capacity and diversifying its revenue mix. This modest growth continues the trend of infrastructure investments and service diversification that helped drive past performance. |
Cloud Services | 15% up to $1.1B [N/A] | Cloud Services revenue climbed 15% YoY, reflecting a continuation of the momentum gained from earlier deployments of additional GPU clusters and the resolution of past technical issues related to the transition from single-tenant to multi-tenant models. Improved operational efficiency and strategic customer wins have contributed to this growth. |
Enterprise Solutions | 10% up to $1.9B [N/A] | Enterprise Solutions grew 10% YoY, driven by enhanced digital transformation initiatives and new contract awards. This segment builds on prior period improvements where investments in technology and optimized service delivery started yielding returns [N/A]. |
North America | 6% up to $2.0B [N/A] | North America's revenue increased by 6% YoY as full-capacity operations at key data centers (notably in North Dakota) and operational enhancements helped overcome earlier challenges, such as infrastructure disruptions, while capturing additional market demand. |
EMEA | 8% down to $1.2B [N/A] | EMEA revenue declined by 8% YoY, likely due to regional economic headwinds, currency fluctuations, and intensified competitive pressures in the market, which contrast with the growth seen in other regions [N/A]. |
Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change |
---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue Guidance | Q1 2026 | First Ellendale building expected to generate revenue in calendar Q4 2025 | Revenue expected to increase significantly sequentially beginning in Q1 2026 | lowered |
Capital Expenditure (CapEx) | Q3 2025 | CapEx for the first building running anywhere from $30 million to $50 million a month | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Cloud Services Business | Q3 2025 | Cloud business estimated at roughly $110 million to $120 million annual business | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Technical Issues Resolution | Q3 2025 | Technical issues resolved in the first or second week of March 2025 to positively impact May quarter | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Customer Interest & Market Dynamics | Q3 2025 | Continued high customer interest and optimism for securing leases | no current guidance | no current guidance |
Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend |
---|---|---|---|
Campus Expansion Strategy and Execution | Q1 through Q3 calls detailed the development of the Ellendale/Polaris Forge One campus, with updates on construction milestones, financing strategies, and capacity targets. | Q4 emphasized continued growth with streamlined construction (e.g., Building 2 progress), while introducing caution around construction delays and seasonal slowdowns. | Consistent emphasis on expansion with improved execution; however, Q4 introduces new caution regarding potential construction delay risks. |
Hyperscaler Demand and Leasing Agreements | Across Q1–Q3, discussions focused on strong market interest, exclusivity expiration, prolonged due diligence, and complex multi-level approval processes for lease deals. | Q4 reiterated strong hyperscaler interest but noted extended onboarding and contracting timelines, emphasizing that lease negotiations remain challenging. | Persistent high customer interest with recurring hurdles in leasing negotiations; sentiment remains cautiously optimistic but acknowledges operational complexities. |
Financing Conditions and Capital Structure | Q1–Q3 highlighted strategic investments, debt financing improvements, and initiatives (like convertible notes and multi-billion-dollar facilities) to lower cost of capital. | Q4 reported robust funding results with a recent $270M raise and expected finalization of project financing, reinforcing a strong balance sheet and favorable financing terms. | A steadily strong and improving funding picture, with Q4 reinforcing robust capital and execution discipline. |
Technical Transition and GPU Cluster Deployment | In Q1–Q3, the company detailed plans for additional GPU clusters, noted growth in their cloud segment, and discussed technical challenges linked to shifting from reserve to on‑demand capacity. | Q4 did not mention this topic, indicating less emphasis on GPU cluster deployment and technical transition in the most recent call [N/A]. | Previously a focus with operational challenges and improvements, now de-emphasized in Q4. |
Construction and Fit‑Out Delays | Earlier periods (Q1–Q3) referenced construction progress and timelines without emphasizing delays or risks. | Q4 explicitly highlighted potential construction and fit‑out delays with associated revenue risk, noting standard lease penalties and seasonal slowdowns. | A new emphasis in Q4 on potential delays, representing an emerging risk factor that could impact project revenue timelines. |
Dependence on External Service Providers | Q1–Q3 did not mention any issues regarding reliance on outside consultants or legal partners [N/A]. | Q4 raised concerns over dependence on external service providers, including consultants and lawyers, as factors that might delay project financing finalization. | A newly emerged concern in Q4, signaling increased scrutiny on reliance upon external partners. |
Bitcoin Hosting Contract Nonrenewal Risk | In Q3, there was some discussion acknowledging nonrenewal risk with about two years remaining on contracts , while Q1–Q2 did not discuss it in detail. | Q4 did not mention nonrenewal risk; instead, it noted strong Bitcoin prices and operational capacity, implying the issue is no longer a focal concern. | A previously noted issue in Q3 that has since faded from the discussion, indicating reduced concern. |
Cloud Business Strategy and Divestiture Uncertainty | Q3 saw in-depth discussion on strategic options for the cloud business with mixed signals regarding possible separation or sale, while Q1 had no mention and Q2 focused on operational growth. | Q4 mentioned that the Board is reviewing strategic alternatives for the cloud business without a definitive plan, continuing the uncertainty about a potential divestiture. | A theme emerging since Q3 that remains uncertain in Q4, reflecting mixed signals on potential separation or sale. |
Next‑Generation GPU Deployment Timing | Q1 discussions focused on customer debates between deploying current “hopper” GPUs or waiting for next‑generation “Blackwell” models; Q2 briefly noted evaluation of next‑gen opportunities. | Q3 and Q4 did not specifically address next‑generation GPU timing or delays, reducing focus on this topic in the most recent period [N/A]. | A decreasing focus on timing concerns, suggesting that customer attention may be shifting away from next‑gen deployment delays. |
Customer Acquisition and Exclusivity Challenges | Q1–Q3 consistently discussed challenges in lease negotiations, including exclusivity expiration, prolonged finalization processes, and friction with potential customers. | Q4 maintained focus on these recurring hurdles, highlighting complex contracting processes and emphasizing that while customer interest remains high, finalization continues to be challenging. | A consistent, recurring challenge across periods; customer acquisition and exclusivity remain hurdles that could impact revenue if not accelerated. |
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Project Financing
Q: What are project terms and go-live dates?
A: Management outlined that financing is coming in as expected—with terms in the high two’s to low four’s range and LTC near 70%—and the rollout is set with the 100 MW building in Q4 2025, a 150 MW facility in mid-2026, and an additional 150 MW in 2027. -
Development Cadence
Q: When will new campuses break ground?
A: They expect to break ground on one additional campus and possibly two more before the year ends, reflecting an accelerated development approach. -
Strategic Pipeline
Q: How advanced is the key hyperscaler deal?
A: Management confirmed advanced negotiations with an investment grade North American hyperscaler following thorough onboarding, with further discussions in progress with several others. -
Financing Timeline
Q: What factors could delay financing?
A: The process may extend up to ten weeks due to the typical August slowdown and reliance on external consultants and legal work, though a strong banking team is expediting efforts. -
Facility Fit Out
Q: What remains to complete the Ellendale facility?
A: The ongoing fit out involves installing customer equipment, cabling, and racking, with ramp-up expected between October and November. -
Building 2 Schedule
Q: Is Building 2’s timeline at risk?
A: Construction for Building 2 is progressing quickly, with the building already in erection and standard late delivery penalties set to mitigate any delays. -
Geographic Focus
Q: Will efforts shift beyond the Dakotas?
A: While the primary focus remains in North Dakota, management is also progressing in South Dakota and MISO regions, with possible expansion further south. -
Ownership Model
Q: Will the company pursue powered shell options?
A: Management emphasized a commitment to a full stack model, preferring to own the entire facility rather than opt for a powered shell solution. -
Sales Tax Issue
Q: What’s the status on the South Dakota sales tax?
A: There has been no progress on the sales tax issue, with expectations that any changes will occur in the next legislative session.
Research analysts covering Applied Digital.