Aqua Metals, Inc. (AQMS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Aqua Metals reported another pre-revenue quarter with materially lower operating expense and net loss as it advances toward first commercial-scale AquaRefining; net loss improved to $3.12M with $(2.19) EPS per the furnished 8-K, while management on the call cited a $2.8M loss and $(1.52) EPS (likely non-GAAP/rounding) — we anchor to the filed statements and note the discrepancy .
• Liquidity and runway improved following $17.1M of new funding ($4.1M during Q3 via ATM/ELOC and $13M post-quarter from an institutional investor), supporting engineering, permitting, and site selection for the first ARC facility without speculative build-out risk .
• Strategic momentum: pilot-scale LFP success (1 MT processed to battery-grade lithium carbonate), LOI with Westwin Elements for 500–1,000 MT/yr recycled nickel carbonate (targeting 2027 delivery; non-binding), and MOUs to explore deep-sea polymetallic nodule refining expanded optionality while AQMS regained Nasdaq bid-price compliance .
• Key stock catalysts ahead: potential site selection update “as early as this quarter,” bankable feedstock/offtake progress, and conversion of LOIs/MOUs to definitive commercial agreements; management emphasized “build once and build right” tied to contracted demand .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

• What Went Well

  • Balance sheet strengthened with $17.1M new funding, providing “multiple quarters” of runway to finish engineering/permitting and finalize site selection for first commercial facility .
  • Technology validation and commercial relevance: pilot processed 1 MT of LFP cathode scrap, producing battery-grade lithium carbonate; management: “Q3 was one of the most productive periods in our company’s history” .
  • Strategic pipeline broadened: LOI with Westwin (500–1,000 MT/yr nickel carbonate, ~ $12M/yr at current prices; 2027 target), MOUs with MOBY Robotics and Impossible Metals for clean refining of deep-sea nodules; regained Nasdaq compliance .

• What Went Wrong

  • Still pre-revenue; statements of operations show no revenue and continued losses; investment case remains milestone- and financing-dependent .
  • Build timing depends on “bankable” feedstock and offtake contracts; management reiterated it will not “build on speculation,” potentially elongating commercialization vs some investor timelines .
  • LOI with Westwin is non-binding and targets deliveries starting 2027, leaving near-term monetization contingent on other offtake wins; management also flags risks to financing and partnership execution in forward-looking statements .

Financial Results

• P&L and liquidity trajectory (older → newer):

• YoY snapshot for Q3:
  • Management on the call cited net loss of $2.8M (vs $4.7M in Q3’24) and EPS $(1.52) vs $(6.87) in Q3’24; furnished 8-K shows Q3’25 net loss $(3.12)M and $(2.19) EPS. We anchor on the filed data and note the discrepancy for reconciliation in the 10-Q .

• Operating items of note:

  • Impairment/loss on disposal: $5.25M (Q1), $3.77M (Q2), $0.03M (Q3), driving sharp OpEx variance QoQ .
  • CFO indicated operating cash used YTD ~$7.2M vs $10.4M prior year YTD, highlighting cost discipline .

• KPIs and operating milestones:

Guidance Changes

No formal numerical guidance (revenue, margins, OpEx, taxes) was issued. Management reiterated a disciplined approach: finalize site selection and secure bankable feedstock and offtake before commencing ARC build; potential site update “as early as this quarter” .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “Q3 was one of the most productive periods in our company’s history… we’re executing on our vision for a feedstock-agnostic, low cost, low-carbon refining platform that supports U.S. supply-chain independence.” — Steve Cotton, CEO .
• “The answer is really simple: discipline… build once and build right… when the demand is contracted and not… on speculation.” — Steve Cotton (on ARC timing) .
• “We ended the quarter with $2.9 million in cash… and closed a $13 million investment [post-quarter]… multiple quarters of operating runway.” — Eric West, CFO .
• “We’ll report the news more than we’ll forecast the weather.” — Steve Cotton (on BD cadence) .

Q&A Highlights

• Gating factors/timing: Company will not commence ARC build until feedstock/offtake are bankable; sequencing and capital discipline highlight strategy to avoid speculative capacity adds .
• Feedstock: Ample black mass exists; current payables favor Asia-Pac refiners due to scale, but AQMS believes its economics are competitive; focus is on securing bankable contracts to support financing .
• Nickel pathway: LOI with Westwin supports 2027 delivery window; near-term pathway prioritizes Li2CO3, Ni, Co from black mass into U.S. supply chain while domestic PCAM/CAM capacity is nascent .
• Site selection: Engineering, permitting, utility access, and partner alignment are key; update could come “as early as this quarter” .

Estimates Context

• We queried S&P Global consensus for Q3 2025 and did not find published estimates for AQMS (EPS and revenue consensus unavailable). As such, no beat/miss analysis vs Wall Street is possible this quarter [GetEstimates: Q3 2025 returned empty].
• Implication: Near-term estimate revisions are unlikely to drive shares; stock will be more sensitive to milestone execution (site selection, bankable contracts, definitive agreements) and capital updates.

Key Takeaways for Investors

• De-risking via capital: $17.1M raised and elimination of long-term debt earlier in 2025 extend runway to complete pre-construction milestones and negotiate from strength — reducing financing/dilution risk near term .
• Execution gating items define the path: Bankable feedstock/offtake and site selection are the next stock-moving events; management indicated potential site update “as early as this quarter” .
• Technology momentum broadens addressable market: LFP pilot success and deep-sea nodule MOUs expand optionality beyond NMC black mass, supporting a feedstock-agnostic platform and future offtake diversity .
• Commercial timing is disciplined by design: Expect AQMS to avoid speculative build announcements; traders should watch for definitive agreements (LOI/MOU conversion) and financing structures that minimize dilution .
• Financial trend improving but pre-revenue: OpEx and net loss are trending down and cash is up, but revenue remains $0; the transition to commercial revenue is the primary re-rating catalyst .
• Narrative setup into 2026: Industry consolidation favors validated, financially prudent operators; AQMS positioning could benefit as domestic battery materials policies and offtake interest accumulate .

Appendices

Additional Relevant Press Releases (Q3 timeframe)

• LOI with Westwin Elements to supply 500–1,000 MT/yr recycled nickel carbonate (~$12M/yr at current prices); deliveries targeted for 2027; non-binding and contingent on financing/build-outs .
• Reverse stock split (1:10) announced July 31; used to regain Nasdaq bid-price compliance, which management subsequently notes was achieved .

Notes on Data Consistency

• Discrepancy: The furnished 8-K shows cash and cash equivalents at 9/30/25 of $3.59M, while the CFO cited $2.9M on the call; management’s figure may reflect a different cash measure (e.g., unrestricted cash) or rounding. We anchor to the furnished statements where differences arise .
• Discrepancy: 8-K shows Q3’25 net loss $(3.12)M and $(2.19) EPS; the CFO cited $(2.8)M and $(1.52) EPS. We anchor to the filed statements and flag the gap for reconciliation in the 10-Q .

Source Citations

• Q3 2025 8-K 2.02 + Exhibit (press release and financials):
• Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript:
• LOI with Westwin Elements (press release):
• Reverse split (press release):
• Q2 2025 8-K 2.02 (press release and financials):
• Q1 2025 8-K 2.02 (press release and financials):
• Market context (EV +11% YoY, NA battery plants >45):