Executive Summary

Aqua Metals delivered a technology-validation quarter but remains pre-revenue; the company highlighted a three-week 24/7 pilot run, >99% recovery of Li/Co/Ni, and production of >600 lbs of >99.5% lithium carbonate, positioning for commercialization pending financing .
No formal revenue or EPS guidance was provided; management reiterated commissioning of Phase 1 at Sierra ARC in ~2–3 quarters post-financing, while pivoting near-term production focus to battery-grade lithium carbonate and MHP to improve capital efficiency and contribution margins .
FY 2024 net loss was $24.555M vs $23.938M in 2023, with a $2.640M impairment tied to equipment deposits no longer required under the revised plan; YE cash was $4.079M, aided by insider-supported financing and a $2.2M Nevada tax abatement .
Key stock catalysts: securing project/debt financing, formalizing feedstock and offtake contracts (including 6K Energy supply agreement), and potential government support (DOE program, executive order focus on critical minerals), which could unlock commissioning and first commercial shipments .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Technology and product validation accelerated: three-week continuous pilot run, >600 lbs of >99.5% lithium carbonate produced; >99% recovery of Li/Co/Ni; nickel converted to CAM with a downstream partner for OEM validation .
- “We produced more than 600 pounds of battery-grade lithium carbonate at purity levels exceeding 99.5%” .
Strategic focus sharpened: prioritizing lithium carbonate and MHP to more than double lithium output with similar capex, supporting faster time-to-revenue and improved plant-level economics .
External validation and support: selected for DOE ACME-REVIVE, received a $2.2M Nevada tax abatement tied to projected $392M economic impact; raised ~$15M in equity with strong insider participation, plus a $1.5M bridge loan largely funded by leadership/Board .

What Went Wrong

Financing delays continue to push the Sierra ARC commercialization timeline; company remains pre-revenue with FY 2024 product sales of $0 .
Non-cash impairment of ~$2.6M recognized for vendor equipment deposits due to revised plan; warrant liability remeasurement ($507k) increased reported interest expense .
Macro headwinds persist: depressed battery metal prices and tight capital markets complicate project/debt financing, forcing cautious capex, RIFs, and burn control earlier in 2024 .

Financial Results

Note: AQMS reported no product sales in FY 2024; margins are not meaningful due to lack of revenue .

Quarterly snapshot (oldest → newest):

Metric	Q2 2024	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Net Income (Loss) ($USD Millions)	$(5.587)	$(5.210)	$(7.443)*
Diluted EPS ($)	N/A	$(0.76)	$(10.39)*
Total Operating Expenses ($USD Millions)	$5.599	$5.211	$4.050*
Cash & Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions, period-end)	$7.833	$2.950	$4.079

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Annual comparison:

Metric	FY 2023	FY 2024
Product Sales ($USD Millions)	$0.025	$0.000
Net Loss ($USD Millions)	$(23.938)	$(24.555)
Basic & Diluted EPS ($)	$(5.10)	$(3.83)

KPI and operational metrics (Q4 period focus):

KPI	Q4 2024 / Recent
Pilot run duration & uptime	3 weeks, ~24/7 continuous (90%+ uptime)
Li carbonate produced	>600 lbs at >99.5% purity
Recovery rates (pilot)	>99% Li/Co/Ni
Strategic product focus	Prioritizing battery-grade Li carbonate & MHP; >2x lithium output vs prior plan
YE cash	$4.079M at 12/31/2024
Impairment	~$2.640M (equipment deposits)
Warrant liability	$1.493M YE; $507k change in fair value recognized

Estimates vs. Actuals (Q4 2024):

Wall Street consensus via S&P Global for revenue and EPS was unavailable; no estimate comparison is possible [GetEstimates returned no data].

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Commissioning timeline (Phase 1)	Post-financing	2–3 quarters after financing (Q3 commentary)	Reiterated 2–3 quarters after financing	Maintained
Operating expenses	2025	Base cash needs ~$0.5–0.6M/month run-rate discussed for late 2024/into 2025	Expect 2025 expenses (G&A and plant ops) to be lower vs 2024	Lowered
Product scope	Phase 1	Broader metals mix; initial 3,000 TPA black mass, plan to 10,000 TPA	Focus on Li carbonate & MHP; add outbuilding to process 7,000 TPA; improved contribution margins and ~3-year payback targeted	Strategic pivot
Financing approach	2024–2025	Alternatives after suspended credit facility (project finance/JV/strategic)	Project finance and debt emphasized; formal discussions ongoing	Clarified path

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q2 2024, Q3 2024)	Current Period (Q4 2024)	Trend
Technology validation	Q2: pilot operations continue; macro price pressure . Q3: 24-hour operations and battery-grade outputs .	3-week continuous run; >600 lbs >99.5% Li carbonate; >99% recovery; CAM validation	Strengthening validation
Financing	Q2: lender suspended term sheet; pursuing alternatives . Q3: multiple term sheets; diligence ongoing .	Project finance/debt path; better economics under revised plant plan	Progressing, not closed
Product strategy	Q2: pushing Sierra ARC; equipment staged . Q3: 3,000→10,000 TPA roadmap .	Pivot to Li carbonate & MHP to double Li output with similar capex	Capital-efficient pivot
Government/regulatory	Q2: missed grant round; increased agency engagement . Q3: further agency visits .	DOE ACME-REVIVE selection; $2.2M tax abatement; executive order urgency noted	Improving support
Macro metals pricing	Q2: steep declines pressure debt service . Q3: continued weakness .	Expectation for recovery later; still cautious	Cautious recovery expectations
Partnerships	Q2: engaging 6K/Dragonfly/Yulho . Q3: offtake discussions maturing .	6K Energy long-term supply (up to 30% recycled content); broader offtake/feedstock talks	Expanding pipeline

Management Commentary

“We produced more than 600 pounds of battery-grade lithium carbonate at purity levels exceeding 99.5%... few, if any, others in the U.S. are matching today” — Steve Cotton, CEO .
“As a result of this strategic shift... recognized an impairment of approximately $2.6 million related to vendor equipment deposits... no longer needed under the revised plan” — Judd Merrill, CFO .
“We will put together an additional building... allow us to get from 3,000 tonnes... up to 7,000 tonnes [of black mass]” — Steve Cotton, CEO .
“By refining our plant architecture... improved contribution margins... more favorable financing terms” — Judd Merrill, CFO .

Q&A Highlights

Financing status and structure: Management is engaged with lenders focused on project and debt financing; terms discussed but no timeline provided .
Commissioning timeline: Reiterated 2–3 quarters after financing; main building is “move-in ready”; an additional outbuilding supports 7,000 TPA capability .
Offtake/feedstock agreements: Active discussions continue; pilot-produced battery-grade samples are enabling offtake engagement despite metals-price volatility .
Government engagement: Management pursuing funding avenues post-executive order on critical minerals; expects 1–2 quarters for potential resolution .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus for Q4 2024 EPS and revenue was unavailable; as such, no beat/miss determination vs. Street can be made [GetEstimates returned no data].
Given the pre-revenue status and financing dependency, near-term Street models (where they exist) may need to reflect: (a) lower 2025 operating expenses vs. 2024, (b) later commissioning tied to financing close, and (c) revised product mix focused on Li carbonate and MHP .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Execution risk is concentrated in financing: closing project/debt financing is the gating item to commissioning and revenue; watch for signed agreements, government support, and finalized offtake/feedstock contracts as catalysts .
Technology risk looks reduced: 3-week continuous pilot run, high recovery rates, and >600 lbs of >99.5% Li carbonate bolster credibility for near-term commercialization .
Economic model upgraded: pivot to Li carbonate and MHP aims to more than double lithium output with similar capex and improved contribution margins; implied ~3-year plant-level payback targeted .
Balance sheet tight but supported: YE cash $4.079M; insider-led equity/bridge financing and $2.2M tax abatement help bridge to project financing; continued burn control expected in 2025 .
Partnership optionality expanding: 6K Energy supply agreement (up to 30% recycled content) plus ongoing offtake/feedstock negotiations offer commercialization pathways beyond the company-owned facility footprint .
Trading lens: stock likely reacts to financing closure probabilities, timing to commissioning, and first formal offtake/feedstock contracts; government awards or policy tailwinds could be upside catalysts .

S&P Global disclaimer: Values marked with * are retrieved from S&P Global.

Aqua Metals, Inc. (AQMS)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary