Algonquin Power & Utilities - Earnings Call - Q1 2025
May 9, 2025
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Welcome to the Algonquin Power & Utilities Corp First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speaker's remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. If you would like to ask a question during this time, simply press star one on your telephone keypad. I will now turn the conference over to Mr. Brian Chin, Interim Chief Financial Officer and Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Brian Chin (Interim CFO and VP of Investor Relations)
Thank you, Operator, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for our first quarter 2025 earnings conference call. Joining me on the call today will be Rod West, Chief Executive Officer, and Sarah MacDonald, Chief Transformation Officer. To accompany today's earnings call, we have a supplemental webcast presentation available on our website, algonquinpower.com. Our financial statements and management discussion and analysis are also available on the website as well as on SEDAR+ and EDGAR. We'd like to remind you that our discussion during the call will include certain forward-looking information and non-GAAP measures. Actual results could differ materially from any forecast or projection contained in such forward-looking information. Certain material factors and assumptions were applied in making the forecasts and projections reflected in such forward-looking information.
Please note and review the related disclaimers located on slide two of our earnings call presentation at the Investor Relations sections of our website at algonquinpower.com. Please also refer to our most recent MD&A filed on SEDAR+ and EDGAR and available on our website for additional important information on these items. On the call this morning, Rod will provide brief commentary on his first 60 days at Algonquin, followed by a review of key highlights and operational updates for the quarter. I will then detail our financial results. We will then open the lines for questions. We kindly ask that you restrict your questions to two, then re-queue if you have any additional questions to allow others the opportunity to participate. With that, I'll turn things over to Rod.
Rod West (CEO)
Thank you, Brian, and good morning, everyone. Before I provide my opening remarks on the quarter and my first 60 days, I first want to acknowledge the heartbreaking incident that occurred on April 9th in Lexington, Missouri, within our gas service territory. As members of the community, our thoughts and prayers remain with the affected families whose lives have been devastated by the tragedy. Our hearts are with you. Nothing's more important to me and to this company than the safety of our customers, employees, and communities. We remain fully committed to working with the authorities to support the ongoing investigation into the cause of the accident, and we will continue to work in partnership with the community on restoration and recovery initiatives.
Moving now to my comments on the quarter, I'd like to start things off by thanking you for your interest in Algonquin, for continuing to support the company through this transformative journey, and for welcoming Brian and I into our new respective roles. It's been a busy first 60 days for me, having had the opportunity to meet with many of our stakeholders and visit several of our regional offices. My observations are consistent with the remarks I shared on the Q4 call. I see significant opportunity ahead, yet there's still a tremendous amount of work to do. Algonquin has real potential to be a premium utility. We have a solid, diversified asset base and many talented and hardworking employees, yet we have yet to consistently evidence the practices that set premium utilities apart from the rest.
Some areas of improvement that come to mind include improving our customer outcomes first and community engagement, leveraging our economies of scale. I look forward to sharing more insights on our path forward. As promised, we plan to provide a forward-looking multi-year update on June 3rd, which falls approximately 90 days from our Q4 2024 call and my first day in the seat. Also, on June 3rd, I plan to share more of my observations regarding the company. Later this year, I do expect to provide a little more color into our longer-term strategic thinking and positioning of the portfolio. With that, let's now turn to the operational highlights from the quarter. Starting with regulatory updates. On March 25th, the New Hampshire Public Utilities Commission issued an order approving the Granite State Electric settlement agreement, with new rates having taken effect on April 1st.
On April 21st, the New Hampshire Commission further extended a stay of the EnergyNorth Gas rate case proceeding until May 30th, allowing more time for settlement negotiations to be completed. On our Empire Electric Missouri rate case, the Commission extended the test year true-up period from September 30th, 2024, to March 31st, 2025, which provides an opportunity for us to capture capital invested during that timeframe in our rate filing. Moving to a brief update on the Missouri Commission investigation into our customer service and billing issues. As stated on the Q4 call, the investigation opened at the end of February, and we have been working with the investigation team, responding to data requests and providing answers to their questions. Shifting from state-level rate cases to transmission.
As discussed last quarter, the Southwest Power Pool, SPP, approved its 2024 Integrated Transmission Plan, the largest portfolio of transmission projects ever undertaken by SPP, totaling roughly $7.7 billion. A significant share of this transformative investment, approximately $750-$800 million, is dedicated to strengthening the Empire District Electric service area, underscoring the region's critical role in the future of the grid. Within the Empire District Electric footprint, the approved upgrades encompass approximately 80 mi of 161 kV rebuilds or conversions, 90 mi of new 345 kV transmission lines, and the construction of two large-scale transmission stations. On April 23, Empire accepted the first tranche of notices to construct, or NTCs, for the 161 kV portion of the portfolio. Empire has also received the second tranche of NTCs, and the next step is the official acceptance of the second tranche of NTCs submitted to SPP on October 4 and June 19.
We're excited for the opportunity these projects represent for our stakeholders. I'll now turn things back to Brian to review the financial highlights from the quarter. Brian?
Brian Chin (Interim CFO and VP of Investor Relations)
Thanks, Rod. In a short summary, it was an encouraging quarter for our key financial metrics. First quarter adjusted net earnings from continuing operations were $111.6 million, up 39% from $80.1 million in 2024. A 43% increase of $40.8 million in net earnings for the Regulated Services Group was primarily due to the implementation of new rates of $15.7 million and lower interest expense of $13.6 million as a result of debt repayment with the proceeds from the sales of the renewables business and our Atlantica stake. Our depreciation expense was relatively flat year over year. Our usual organic growth in depreciation expense was partly offset by $8.2 million in non-recurring favorable pickups related to regulatory orders in New Hampshire and Arizona. The $13.4 million increase in net earnings for the Hydro Group was primarily due to a one-time tax recovery related to the sale of the renewable energy business.
Our expectations of an effective tax rate in the mid to low 20% range for the year have not changed, and as we have said before, we do expect a bit of lumpiness in our quarterly tax profile. On the Corporate side, our adjusted net earnings decreased by $22.7 million related to the removal of Atlantica dividends. Moving to our EPS walk, Q1 adjusted net earnings per share were $0.14, which is flat to last year's Q1 2024 adjusted net earnings per share of $0.14, which includes renewables. Yet, above last year's Q1 2024 continuing operations, adjusted net EPS of $0.11, excluding renewables.
Starting with last year's $0.14, including renewables, year-over-year drivers include a -$0.03 attributed to the renewables sale, an increase of $0.03 for new rate case contributions from New York Water, BELCO, and Midstates Gas, as well as increased customer demand, and another $0.02 of contribution from lower interest expense from use of renewables and Atlantica sales proceeds to pay down debt net of financing for organic growth. Mirroring my earlier comments, we had approximately a penny pickup from non-recurring items, favorable items, based on depreciation related to regulatory orders in New Hampshire and Arizona. Aside from the regulated business, we captured a $0.02 increase for the one-time tax recovery related to our Hydro Group, a decrease of $0.03 for the removal of the Atlantica dividend, and a reduction of $0.02 for an increase in weighted average shares outstanding.
For the last two quarters, our adjusted net EPS impact from dilution has been tracking to a penny each quarter, but since our results are proportionally skewed to Q1, this mathematically increased our dilution to $0.02 for this quarter. Let me pause here on non-recurring items embedded in this walk. If one takes the positive penny from regulatory orders related to depreciation and the $0.02 from the Hydro tax recovery, our adjusted net EPS includes a total of $0.03 of favorable non-recurring items in the quarter. Given our unchanged view of an effective tax rate in the mid to low 20% range, we expect a portion of the effective tax rate non-recurring items to reverse over the remainder of the year.
In keeping with our goal of reducing complexity, the company's financial disclosures now focus primarily on adjusted net earnings and adjusted net earnings per share and earnings per share as we view these as our key financial metrics. Our simplified financial disclosure includes net earnings from continuing operations separated into Regulated, Hydro, and Corporate segments in our financial statement footnotes. A few comments now on our credit metrics. Simply stated, our credit metrics are healthy. For year-end 2024, S&P indicated our FFO to debt was 12.5%, comfortably above the requisite BBB threshold of 11%. Fitch indicated our debt to EBITDA was 5.6x, appropriately below the requisite BBB threshold of 5.8. These metrics were measured before net deleveraging proceeds to continuing operations were received from the sale of the renewable energy business on January 8th. Now back to Rod for closing remarks.
Rod West (CEO)
Thanks, Brian. As per our press release this morning, I want to highlight to our listeners to save the date for our investor update call on June 3rd, which I referenced earlier. We expect this outlook, which will be primarily based on the current portfolio, will include projected adjusted net EPS ranges for 2025, 2026, and 2027, with more detailed thoughts on the company and its potential after my first 90 days. I also aim to share my broader strategic thinking on the broader portfolio later this year. Thanks to everyone for joining us on the call this morning. I am excited and motivated by the opportunities ahead, and now the management team is available to answer your questions. Operator?
Operator (participant)
Thank you. If you have a question, please press star one on your telephone keypad. To withdraw your question, simply press star one again. Please limit your questions to two. One moment, please, for your first question. Your first question comes from the line of Robert Hope with Scotiabank. Your line is open.
Robert Hope (Analyst)
Morning, everyone. I won't ask about the forward outlook, but maybe a little bit backwards looking. Rod, you've been here for a number of weeks, months now. Can you maybe walk us through kind of what you think the most impactful changes you've made to the organization so far have been?
Rod West (CEO)
Yeah, it's interesting that you say months because it is literally two months. The S in months look back is literally one month. My focus and the initial sort of impact has been setting a vision for what a premium pure-play utility looks like and setting the attributes of a pure-play utility to the corporation, which informs the work we're doing to lower our overall cost profile to make room to do more on the capital and O&M front, but also a focus on improving our stakeholder engagement capacity and sort of discipline. These things are notional because I'm communicating them to the organization as I'm setting ourselves up to actually execute on those plans. The way that they will ultimately play out are on outcomes for our stakeholders for the investment community.
We're talking more and we'll be talking more about total shareholder return from the customer perspective. We'll be talking about net promoter score and specific customer outcomes that will drive our capital plan and our sort of organizational health, the motivation, the health, the alignment of our employees' actions to create sustainable value for those four key stakeholders. The metrics that we're paying attention to are the types of things that will give us our stage gates along the way so everybody has a clear understanding of where we're headed and what are the milestones along the way that will separate us from good to great.
The good thing is that we have a lot to work with, and that's the biggest part of my initial evaluation is that we have really quality assets and we have a group of employees who are really motivated to turn our performance around.
Robert Hope (Analyst)
All right. Appreciate that color. Second question, moving over to the SPP projects. You have two tranches with good clarity right now. Do you know how much capital that could be versus the $750-$800 that you referenced, as well as when would that capital start being spent?
Rod West (CEO)
We haven't disclosed anything beyond what is currently public. I don't anticipate that we'll do so until we're further along. The short answer is my expectation is that if we're successful in executing on what's in front of us, we'll be in a better position to capture and execute on additional CapEx opportunities in that space.
Robert Hope (Analyst)
All right. Thank you. I'll jump back in the queue.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Sean Steuart with TD Cowen. Your line is open.
Sean Steuart (Analyst)
Thank you. Good morning.
Robert Hope (Analyst)
Good morning.
Sean Steuart (Analyst)
Couple of questions. I want to start with investigations. There is another investigation in Arkansas and an audit in New Hampshire. I am just trying to gauge, are these the same billing issues that you are dealing with in the Missouri investigation? Do you have any perspective on timing resolution for these various investigations and audits?
Rod West (CEO)
I do not believe New Hampshire is a customer-related investigation, but the other investigations have to do with the billing issues, the timeliness of billing associated with the deployment of an overhaul of a new system. We are working with the regulators and the state in each of those circumstances. From my initial observation, our challenges were not unlike other utilities who have gone through system deployment. I think where we have fallen short in seeking to remedy it is that we did not do a good job of stakeholder engagement prior to the deployment of the system, which left a lot of folks surprised when the normal, what I would consider to be the normal hiccups associated with the scale of the system overhaul that we implemented, occurred. We did not, in my view at least, do the conditions precedent to making it a smoother transition for customers and regulators.
We're closing that gap as we speak, and I am not surprised at all by the attorney generals of where else was initiating investigations because we put them in a position where they had to do that. I do expect us to work through them, and I have personally gone to those respective states to represent my commitment to follow through and cure the issues that the customers have been experiencing. We'll continue to participate and support the work of the states in closing out these customer complaints.
Sean Steuart (Analyst)
Okay. Thank you for that context. Second question, wondering if there's any update on your thinking around the Hydro portfolio, potential timeline towards divestiture, how the thinking's evolved in the current valuation environment.
Rod West (CEO)
Yeah. If we do a double-click, I'll let Brian talk more about it. My perspective is consistent with the position we've taken. We're looking to transact, but the condition precedent has to be it being value accretive, not from a singular EPS perspective, but certainly from a balance sheet and a strategy accretive perspective as well. We're monitoring the market environment for potential off-takers, but it has to be something that we view as net accretive. I don't know that there's a specific timeline that we feel forced to pursue, but should that opportunity arise, I have given the go-ahead that we'll transact if those conditions are met. Brian?
Brian Chin (Interim CFO and VP of Investor Relations)
Yeah. And Sean as a reminder, our thought process is that we would be looking at that in the first portion of this year. Obviously, with the leadership transition, our thought process on the portfolio strategy has been evolving here. We have pushed back the timetable a little bit, but everything that we said before about it being value accretive on a number of fronts, that remains consistent.
Sean Steuart (Analyst)
Got it. Okay. Thanks very much, guys. Much appreciated.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Nelson Ng with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Nelson Ng (Analyst)
Great. Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Quick question on the whole CRM implementation. Can you just comment about, I think in the past, you talked about how the CRM implementation would result in cost savings, and I just had a look at the operating expenses of the utility division. I think costs have increased by just 1.5% year-over-year, so that's obviously lower than inflation. That's good. Can you just talk about realizing cost savings in the business, that big picture, and maybe do a bit more color going forward as well?
Sarah MacDonald (Chief Transformation Officer)
Sure, Nelson. It's Sarah MacDonald. The implementation was not just about cost savings. There were a lot of other customer benefits that are now coming to fruition. When we were starting to implement, we had multiple systems, no integration, and issues in making sure that customers had access, visibility, ability to go online and look at their bills. There was certainly a lot more benefits to the customer coming in. Ultimately, when the system is functioning optimally, you will start to see costs, we will start to be able to realize the benefits of that integration. For now, we're focused on getting it implemented right and making sure the customer experience is better.
Rod West (CEO)
The cost benefits are not going to be specifically called out solely to the implementation of the platform, but you would expect to see more digital channels, lower calls from customers because we are providing more self-help options and lower paper expenses. Those would be reflected in our overall O&M numbers and not just attributed to one specific platform, just on a future basis to understand where we will be coming from.
Nelson Ng (Analyst)
Okay. Thanks for the color. The second question probably relates to Brian. Just a quick one on the non-controlling interest earnings, $18.9 million. I know in the past, you kind of singled out HLBV as a line item. Is this item, is it all HLBV, or are there several items lumped together into earnings attributable to non-controlling interest?
Brian Chin (Interim CFO and VP of Investor Relations)
Yeah. So it's primarily HLBV income. The other significant piece of that, and it's a relatively small piece, is the minority interest related to the ownership stake in Suralis down in Chile.
Nelson Ng (Analyst)
Got it. Thanks. Let's get back in the queue.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Rupert Merer with National Bank. Your line is open.
Rupert Merer (Analyst)
Hi. Good morning, everyone. If I could start with a follow-up on the operating costs. I think with the billing issues you've had in previous quarters, it did incur some added costs. Are you still seeing added costs related to those issues, or is that largely in the rearview mirror now? When we look at those operating costs, are they more representative of what we should expect in future quarters?
Brian Chin (Interim CFO and VP of Investor Relations)
Yeah, Rupert. When we started experiencing those billing issues, the extra cost that we did call out in the Q4 materials was bad debt expense, and that's where we saw the majority of that. You saw a little bit of that this quarter, but it wasn't really enough for us to call out specifically. Definitely, the trend line is moving in a more improved direction. I think going forward from here, we would expect that that would temper off just given the trajectory of where our customer billing exceptions are at. The short answer, Rupert, is we recorded the majority of that in Q4.
Rupert Merer (Analyst)
Last quarter, you talked about some dyssynergies related to the sale of the renewable group. It seems like the costs in the renewables and corporate group have come down significantly. Have you largely dealt with these dyssynergies, or are there any other sort of plans you can discuss to lower costs in the near term? I understand some of this may be things you want to talk about on June 3rd.
Brian Chin (Interim CFO and VP of Investor Relations)
Yeah, Rupert. Last year, if you look at the year in aggregate, we had roughly $18 million in dyssynergies that affected our OpEx numbers last year. For the first quarter, it is at a smaller amount. It is less than a penny of dyssynergies that we are seeing. We did not call it out specifically in the materials just because of the size. We do expect that as we are continuing to execute greater operational and capital discipline on the company, the eventual removal of those dyssynergies will manifest themselves through the outlook. At this stage for the quarter, it just simply was not large enough for us to call out. We do think that is a helpful stage, and that is something you should expect for us here.
Rupert Merer (Analyst)
All right. Very good. I'll leave it there. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Your next question comes from the line of Ben Pham with BMO. Your line is open.
Ben Pham (Analyst)
Hey. Thanks. Good morning. How do you feel your peers on conference calls highlight customer affordability as a topic of interest these days with all that's going on with markets and inflation and supply chain? Can you add some flavor to that conversation? Can you think about some of your comments previously on cost initiatives and narrowing that better while you get towards the lull?
Rod West (CEO)
Yeah. I'll certainly start on that. If I think about the guardrails of the company, and you heard me make reference to premium utilities, we aren't capital constrained if we have constructive regulatory mechanisms, and we have a platform for customer-centric investment to meet evolving customer demands for our services. I think at this point, the one thing that gives us credibility when coming into our regulatory environment asking for support is that we've done everything that we can to lower the cost profile, the actual cost of service for our customers. From my vantage point, the one constraint is not capital constraint; it's affordability.
The conversation that we are having internally and for the entirety of my tenure here in our pursuit to be a premium utility is driving the cost down so that we could put productive capital to work on behalf of our stakeholders in a way that minimizes the impact on customer bills. It is embedded in what you just heard Brian make reference to about capital discipline, but we are also constantly going to be benchmarking ourselves against best in class on our overall cost profile so that I can make—we can make a credible case to our stakeholders that we are responsible stewards of our service. You will see that in our O&M numbers, and I will talk a little bit more about it in our outlooks on June 3rd. I think discipline should be your takeaway, and we are comparing our objectives. We are not there yet.
Obviously, we're a ways away, but our objective is to compare ourselves to best in class on both capital and O&M discipline.
Ben Pham (Analyst)
Okay. Got it. I need to provide some details on the June update. You mentioned also later in the year. Just wanted to clarify the June portion with 2025-2027. Is it a focus on EPS numbers, rate-based CapEx in that timeframe, and then later in the year, it is a beyond 2027 guidance?
Rod West (CEO)
It's fair to say that you're absolutely right on 2025, 2026, and 2027. I know that there are going to be questions about the broader points of view on a portfolio strategy. What we're saying is that we're prepared to go public with the guidance and outlooks for that three-year timeframe. While we are definitely thinking through the broader strategic portfolio questions, we think we'll be in a better position to talk about it publicly later in 2025.
Ben Pham (Analyst)
Okay. Got it.
Brian Chin (Interim CFO and VP of Investor Relations)
Thanks, Ben.
Operator (participant)
Again, if you would like to ask a question, press star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your next question comes from the line of Marc Jarvi with CIBC. Your line is open. Marc, your line is open.
Mark Jarvi (Analyst)
Sorry about that. Yeah. Questions on New Hampshire. You've got settlements now at EnergyNorth and Granite State, but obviously, there's still the audit in terms of the systems there. Updated perspective in terms of the path forward there, when you could get back in to file for new rates and try to get through some of those revenue requests that did not come through on the prior settlements?
Brian Chin (Interim CFO and VP of Investor Relations)
Yeah, Marc. Just to be clear, we do have an order approving the settlement for Granite State. We are in settlement discussions at EnergyNorth, and that is part of the prepared commentary that we have got a little bit more time as granted by the commission to negotiate that settlement. Just to clarify that.
With regards to when we can go back in for new rates, for Granite State, what we have in the settlement is a stay-out period until we can file a new rate case on January 1, 2026. That is a helpful data point in those. Given that similar parties, similar time scales for the rate cases, I think that's something to think about as we're looking at concluding settlement negotiations in EnergyNorth.
Mark Jarvi (Analyst)
Got it. Maybe just updated views in terms of at CalPeco, the application for interim rates. Any feedback yet in terms of whether or not that's feasible and just broadly how you see timelines progressing in CalPeco?
Sarah MacDonald (Chief Transformation Officer)
It is absolutely feasible. We would not have filed otherwise. We have not got any feedback yet, but we are continuing to answer any questions that come up. It is certainly an option open to us that we are taking every advantage of.
Mark Jarvi (Analyst)
When do you think you'll get clarity? Because I believe the ask was for interim rates by middle of this year, and that's not that far away at this point.
Sarah MacDonald (Chief Transformation Officer)
Yeah. California is a slower jurisdiction to hear back, so I can't say when we'll hear.
Mark Jarvi (Analyst)
Got it. Okay. Thanks for the time this morning.
Brian Chin (Interim CFO and VP of Investor Relations)
Thanks, Marc.
Operator (participant)
There are no further questions at this time. I will turn the call to Mr. Rod West.
Rod West (CEO)
All right. Thanks again for your interest and your questions this morning. We look forward to visiting with you again in just a few weeks on June 3rd. Have a great rest of the day.
Operator (participant)
This concludes today's conference call. You may now disconnect.