Aris Mining - Earnings Call - Q1 2025

Executive Summary

• Record Q1 2025 performance: revenue $120.5M, adjusted EBITDA $56.5M, and adjusted operating margin $0.44/BBL; volumes rose 7% sequentially across produced water and water solutions, aided by spot volumes and strong customer activity.
• Results beat Street: revenue $120.5M vs consensus $115.2M*, adjusted EPS $0.35 vs $0.30*, while GAAP diluted EPS was $0.25 (non‑GAAP adjusted diluted EPS $0.35).
• Guidance: Q2 2025 outlook introduced (produced water 1,200–1,250 kbbl/d; water solutions 475–525 kbbl/d; adjusted operating margin $0.41–$0.43/BBL; adjusted EBITDA $50–$55M; capex $20–$25M), and full‑year 2025 guidance maintained (adjusted EBITDA $215–$235M; capex $85–$105M).
• Balance sheet: refinanced into $500M 2030 notes at 7.25% coupon; quarter‑end net debt ~$480M, leverage 2.2x; Q2 dividend declared at $0.14/share.
  Values marked with an asterisk (*) are retrieved from S&P Global.

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Record volumes and margins drove an all‑time high adjusted EBITDA ($56.5M); adjusted operating margin sustained at $0.44/BBL despite deferred maintenance benefit (~$2M) moving to Q2.
• McNeil Ranch integration progressing with attractive surface and subsurface optionality; 11 permits granted on the Texas side and ~330 kbbl/d permitted disposal capacity already in hand.
• Beneficial reuse advancing: permitting for large‑scale desalination and progress on mineral extraction; first iodine site selected with plant targeted online in early 2026; desalination OpEx can be below $1/BBL per management.

What Went Wrong

• Lower oil price strip is a $6–$8M headwind to the 2025 outlook; Q2 adjusted operating margin expected to dip to $0.41–$0.43/BBL on timing of maintenance and lower skim oil realizations.
• Q2 skim oil barrels guided down to ~1,800–2,000 bopd, impacting revenue sensitivity to commodity prices.
• Macro/tariff uncertainty remains a watch item; while direct tariff exposure appears limited, broad cost inflation risks persist via suppliers.

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Aris Mining First Quarter 2025 results call. We will begin with an overview from management, followed by a question-and-answer period. To join the queue, you may press star, then one, on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, all participants are in listen-only mode, and the conference is being recorded. Should you need assistance during the conference call, you may signal an operator by pressing star, then zero. Please note that the accompanying presentation that management will refer to during today's call can be found in the Events and Presentations section of Aris Mining's website at aris-mining.com. Also, Aris Mining's First Quarter 2025 financials have been filed on SEDAR+ and EDGAR and can also be found on their website. I would now like to turn the conference over to Mr. Neil Woodyer, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead.

Neil Woodyer (CEO)

Thank you, Operator, and welcome to everybody, and thanks for joining us on our First Quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm joined by management team, including Richard Thomas, Richard Orazietti, and Oliver Dachsel. Before we go into the results, please note the customary statements on slide two, as we will indeed be making forward-looking statements. Starting on slide three, I'm pleased to report to you that we had our best quarterly results since the formation of Aris Mining in September 2022. These results are supported by solid operational execution and record gold prices, generating strong cash flow to fund our key growth initiatives. In the first quarter, we reported adjusted net earnings of $27 million, which is $0.16 a share, our highest quarterly EPS. Gold revenue totaled $154 million in Q1, representing an increase of 47% over the same quarter last year.

We've delivered—sorry, our 12-month trading Adjusted EBITDA was $201 million. At the end of March, our cash balances stood at $240 million and net debt at $250 million, resulting in a net leverage ratio of 1.2x, providing us flexibility and balance sheet strength as we continue to invest in our organic growth. Turning to our growth initiatives, last week I had the opportunity to visit both Segovia and Marmato to assess what was going on and see the progress on the plant expansion and ongoing development at the Lower Mine. I'm very encouraged to see the strong performance made on the ground, as well as our team's operational discipline and focus on efficient execution. Richard will be talking a little bit more about those projects shortly. First, I'll pass over to Oliver to talk about the highlights from our first quarter.

Oliver Dachsel (SVP of Capital Markets)

Thank you, Neil. Moving on to slide four. During the first quarter, we delivered total gold production of 55,000 oz across our operations, an increase of 8% from Q1 2024. This accounts for 22% of the midpoint of our full year 2025 production guidance range of 230,000-275,000 oz. This is a solid start to the year, as we expect production rates to progressively increase in the second half of the year following commission of the Segovia plant expansion in June. At Segovia, we produced 47,500 ounces of gold during the quarter, supported by an average gold grade of 9.4 g per ton and gold recoveries of 96%. We generated a total all-in sustaining cost margin from Segovia of $61 million, more than doubling our all-in sustaining cost margin from Q1 2024 of $28.5 million.

Owner mining on and sustaining cost was $1,482 per oz and remains at the lower end of the company's full year 2025 guidance range of $1,450-$1,600 per oz. Meanwhile, gold delivered from our contract mining partners, or CMPs, generated a 41% on and sustaining cost sales margin, outperforming the top end of the company's full year 2025 guidance range of 35%-40%. As shown in the chart on the right, rising realized gold prices and disciplined cost control have expanded on and sustaining cost margins on a per ounce basis by 105% at Segovia when comparing Q1 2025 to Q1 2024. Segovia's ability to generate cash flow is expected to expand significantly once the mill expansion project is completed and gold production increases.

Turning to slide five, as Neil mentioned at the beginning of the call, we closed the quarter with a cash balance of $240 million and a low net leverage of 1.2x, demonstrating the strength of our balance sheet. Since the issuance of our $450 million senior unsecured bonds in October last year, we have steadily reduced both total and net leverage ratios. As of March 2025, total leverage was 2.4x and net leverage was 1.2x. I'd also like to take this opportunity to provide an update on our TSX-listed warrants expiring on July 29th, 2025. During the quarter and through early May, we've continued to see strong participation in the exercise of these deeply in-the-money warrants. We've received over $19 million in proceeds from warrant exercises so far.

If the remaining warrants get exercised, we expect an additional cash inflow of up to $96 million. Following the expiry of the warrants at the end of July, the company will have no convertible securities outstanding other than stock options issued under its stock option plan. With a strong and streamlined capital structure and supported by solid operational performance generating robust cash flow, Aris Mining remains well positioned to responsibly fund our organic growth initiatives. Moving to slide six, I'd like to hand over to Richard Thomas to provide an update on our growth projects.

Richard Thomas (COO)

Thank you, Oliver. I'd like to start with Segovia. With the processing plant expansion, remains on track to increase capacity from 2,000 tons a day to 3,000 tons per day. Installation of a second ball mill will be completed in May, with the commissioning expected in June this year. The new ball mill will increase the throughput capacity and hence gold production. Following a ramp-up period, we are targeting a production rate of 3,000 tons per day. Once we are able to fill the mill at 3,000 tons per day, we are expecting an annual gold production in the range of 300,000 oz per year. As 2025 is a transition year, our gold production guidance to produce between 210,000 and 250,000 oz and quarter one production of 47,549 oz is a strong start and in line with our internal plans.

Going across to Marmato, the construction of the Lower Mine is gaining momentum. In March, we announced a design change, which will increase the processing capacity to 5,000 tons per day. During the quarter and in April, the decline development progressed steadily with 323 m completed of the full 1,700. Earthworks for the main substation platform is complete, and the earthworks for the process plant platform continues in progress. In parallel, the site has seen an ongoing delivery and staging of key equipment and materials, including filters, cyclones, sump pumps, some mining equipment, supporting the ramp-up construction to momentum across several of the project areas. Once completed, Upper and Lower Mine Marmato combined will have the potential to produce over 200,000 oz of gold per year.

As of March 2025, we updated the estimated cost to complete the construction of the Lower Marmato Mine to $290 million, considering the 25% expansion to 5,000 tons per day of throughput capacity. We have a further $82 million in remaining funding to be received from Wheaton Precious Metals under the Precious Metals Streaming Agreement. The net construction capital balance of $208 million is thus fully funded, as outlined by Neil and Oliver by way of cash on hand and ongoing cash flow generation from Segovia. I'd like to take this opportunity to encourage you to visit our website to view the latest developments in the Lower Mine construction. A link to the most recent video is available at the bottom of the slide, or you can visit us directly at aris-mining.com.

Let's move across to slide number seven, and we are pleased to highlight progress on our two major technical studies currently underway at Soto Norte and Toroparu in Guyana. Starting with the Soto Norte project located in the Santander Department of Colombia, where Aris holds a 51% joint venture interest and serves as the project operator. We continue to advance environmental and technical studies and expect to complete a new pre-feasibility study in the third quarter of this year. This is a revised, smaller-scale underground development plan that incorporates several optimizations, including improvements to the processing design, tailings storage, mining methods, or transport water usage, all of which contribute to reducing the project's environmental impact. We look forward to providing a comprehensive update once the PFS is complete.

If we go over to Toroparu, a 100% owned open-pit gold copper project located in Guyana, we've commissioned a new preliminary economic assessment to assess updated development options. Completion of the study is also expected in the third quarter of this year. Since updating the mineral resource estimate for Toroparu in March 2023, Aris Mining has also completed important infrastructure optimization studies. With that, I'd like to pass this back to Neil. Oh, what's happened? Maybe let me step in here.

Oh, did I disappear?

Oliver Dachsel (SVP of Capital Markets)

No, no, I can still hear you. I think Neil has maybe some connectivity issues. To wrap up and looking at slide eight here, we delivered a strong start to the year, and we will remain focused on sustaining this momentum as we work towards more than doubling our gold production to over 500,000 oz per year. We are encouraged by the meaningful progress we are seeing across our growth initiatives. At Segovia, the processing plant expansion remains on track with commissioning scheduled for next month. This will support increased production rates in the second half of the year. At Marmato, construction of the Lower Mine continues to advance steadily, with a ramp-up of production expected in the second half of 2026. Finally, we are progressing two major technical studies: the PFS at Soto Norte and the PEA at Toroparu.

Once completed, these two major studies create strategic flexibility to unlock value. We're looking forward to having the difficult decision of how to prioritize our next growth project. Looking ahead, Aris Mining is well positioned for a strong remainder of 2025 and beyond. Backed by a solid capital base and cash generation, we're confident in our ability to deliver on our growth strategy and unlock meaningful long-term value. With that, we'd like to thank you for your time today, and we look forward to your questions. We'll now turn the call back over to the operator to open the line for questions.

Operator (participant)

Certainly. To join the question queue, you may press star, then one on your telephone keypad. You will hear a tone acknowledging your request. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing any keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. We will pause for a moment as callers join the queue. The first question comes from Carey MacRury with Canaccord Genuity. Please go ahead.

Carey MacRury (Research Analyst)

Good morning, everyone. Maybe first on the Segovia ramp-up, the extra 1,000 tons a day, how much of that is expected to come from contract mining partners, and do you have all those agreements in place to ramp that up?

Neil Woodyer (CEO)

Carey, so the way we've planned this out is that at the end of the day, we will have a 60/40 split, 60/40, 60 being the Aris Mining and 40 coming from the contract mining partners. Most of those contracts are in place, and we are signing another five contracts in this week. As we ramp up through the years, it'll be a slow ramp-up. It's not going to be immediate. By the end of the year, we will be in a position to be close to the 3,000 tons per day.

Should we assume it's sort of a steady ramp-up through Q3 and Q4?

Yep, yep, steady ramp-up.

Carey MacRury (Research Analyst)

Okay, great. And then just on Toroparu, on the PEA, can you just talk about what the development options you're looking at there?

Neil Woodyer (CEO)

Since we last did the studies, you know, that was a really large open pit with a double-stage plant. It would be initially an oxide plant and then going to a sulfide plant. Some of the development options we are looking at, because when we did read the resource, the resource shrank to close to 5 million tons, so we need to resize that and make sure that the economics work. We are also looking at innovative ways to treat the oxides without putting up a second plant. We are thinking maybe there is an opportunity for a heap leach, but that work is underway. We also need to do some clever thinking about transport of concentrate or maybe do a doré, which is easier to transport. The other options we are considering are power options.

How do we get power to that site that's not going to be ridiculously expensive? There are a number of issues we're looking at.

Carey MacRury (Research Analyst)

Great, thanks for that. Maybe one last one. I think you pay most of your cash taxes in Q2. Just wondering if there's any guidance on what we should expect for Q2 of this year.

Neil Woodyer (CEO)

Richard Orazietti, I'll leave that one to you.

Richard Orazietti (CFO)

This is as I am myself. You could expect a similar amount. The cash taxes are related to Segovia and the, you know, as the obviously more income is being generated from Segovia, you could do the math at 35%.

Carey MacRury (Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Once again, if you have a question, please press star, then one. The next question comes from Don DeMarco with National Bank Financial. Please go ahead.

Don DeMarco (Equity Research Analyst)

Thank you, operator. Good morning, Neil, Oliver, and team. I'll start off with a question on Marmato. The development appears to be picking up the pace. When do you expect the underground mining rates to be scaled up to feed this upsized 5,000-ton-per-day mill?

Neil Woodyer (CEO)

Okay.

Don DeMarco (Equity Research Analyst)

Would that also occur? Like, would that align with H2 of 2026 or would it be paced to follow that?

Neil Woodyer (CEO)

There's a steady ramp-up from the second half of 2026 into 2027. We should be up at the full 5,000 in the second half of 2027. We do have an accelerated ramp-up because we're doing those state preparations right now through our access on the Igaron ramp. To get to 4,000 is going to be relatively quick, and then the 5,000 will take a few more months after that.

Don DeMarco (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, good. Another question on Toroparu, with this decision to advance the PEA. What is your strategic intention or bias for this asset? Would it be build or sell?

Neil Woodyer (CEO)

Doug, I think you're best placed to answer that one.

Richard Thomas (COO)

I think that really depends on the results of the study, Don. We'll look at all options, but, you know, I guess the best value for us is likely to consider building it, but, you know, let's see what the results tell us and we'll decide then.

Don DeMarco (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay. Certainly look forward to that. It's a country where there's been a lot of positive activity. With the pending inflow from warrants, what is your pecking order for capital allocation beyond the ongoing Marmato development?

Richard Thomas (COO)

Look, I think I would say that would also depend on the two studies because, as you know, we've got also Soto Norte moving forward. We are going to be in a very strong cash position, we already are, so it just strengthens us. It opens up opportunities for how we move either of those programs.

Don DeMarco (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, great. Thank you. That is all from me. Congratulations again on the strong quarter and good luck with Q2.

Richard Thomas (COO)

Thanks, Don.

Operator (participant)

I would like to turn the conference back over to Oliver Dachsel for any closing remarks.

Oliver Dachsel (SVP of Capital Markets)

Yeah, thank you, Megan. Unless there are any further questions, we certainly appreciate your interest. Thank you for joining today's call. Yeah, please do not hesitate to reach out to me and Lillian if you have any further questions. We are looking forward to discussing our results in more depth over the coming days and weeks.

Operator (participant)

This brings a close to today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines. Thank you for participating and have a pleasant day.