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Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q3 2025 revenue was $139.529M, up 1.4% y/y and up 7.8% q/q, with subscriptions/services comprising 57.3% of revenue; GAAP EPS hit a record $0.07 and non-GAAP EPS was $0.16 .
  • Services KPIs accelerated: ARR reached $323.2M (+33.8% y/y), non-GAAP services gross margin expanded to 85.1% (+770 bps y/y), and paid accounts rose to 5.396M (+27.4% y/y) .
  • Against S&P Global consensus, Arlo delivered a modest beat on both revenue ($139.529M vs $138.689M*) and non-GAAP EPS ($0.16 vs $0.1482*); Q4 guidance calls for revenue of $131–$141M and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.13–$0.19 .
  • Key narrative: services-first model and AI-driven Arlo Secure 6 underpin margin expansion; near-term product gross margin remains negative due to tariffs (~$5M hit) and EOL promotions, but BOM cost reductions (20–35%) and unit growth (~29% y/y) support future service growth and profitability .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Services momentum and margin expansion: “Our ARR accelerated to $323 million, up about 34% year over year, driving non-GAAP subscriptions and services gross margin to over 85%, a record level” .
  • AI platform traction and KPIs: CEO highlighted Arlo Secure 6 driving ARPU “over $15 per month” and LTV “over $870,” contributing to ARR and record profitability .
  • Successful largest product launch in company history (100+ SKUs), with unit sales up ~29% y/y and BOM cost reductions of 20–35%, setting up Q4 POS and 2026 services growth .

What Went Wrong

  • Product gross margin negative: non-GAAP product GM was -17.3%, driven by the first full quarter of tariffs (~$5M impact) and EOL promotional activity; excluding tariffs, product GM would have been ~-8% .
  • Mixed consolidated gross margin q/q: GAAP GM fell to 40.5% from 44.9% in Q2 despite y/y improvement, reflecting tariff headwinds and planned promotions .
  • EMEA revenue down y/y: EMEA declined to $49.602M (35.5% mix) vs $57.773M (42.0%) a year ago as US retail/Direct strengthened and product transition timing affected regions .

Financial Results

Headline Metrics vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter

MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Revenue ($USD Millions)$137.667 $129.405 $139.529
GAAP Gross Margin %35.2% 44.9% 40.5%
Non-GAAP Gross Margin %36.0% 45.8% 41.4%
GAAP EPS (Basic, $)$(0.04) $0.03 $0.07
Non-GAAP EPS (Diluted, $)$0.11 $0.17 $0.16
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)$11.369 $17.990 $17.082
Adjusted EBITDA Margin %8.3% 13.9% 12.2%

Segment Breakdown

Segment MetricQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
Subscriptions & Services Revenue ($USD Millions)$61.883 $78.175 $79.942
Products Revenue ($USD Millions)$75.784 $51.230 $59.587
Services GAAP Gross Margin %76.7% 84.3% 84.5%
Services Non-GAAP Gross Margin %77.4% 84.9% 85.1%
Products GAAP Gross Margin %1.3% -15.4% -18.5%
Products Non-GAAP Gross Margin %2.2% -13.8% -17.3%

Revenue by Geography

GeographyQ3 2024 ($M, %)Q2 2025 ($M, %)Q3 2025 ($M, %)
Americas$73.303, 53.2% $81.902, 63.3% $83.831, 60.1%
EMEA$57.773, 42.0% $43.320, 33.5% $49.602, 35.5%
APAC$6.591, 4.8% $4.183, 3.2% $6.096, 4.4%
Total$137.667, 100.0% $129.405, 100.0% $139.529, 100.0%

KPIs

KPIQ3 2024Q2 2025Q3 2025
ARR ($USD Millions)$241.572 $315.655 $323.150
Cumulative Paid Accounts (Millions)4.235 5.115 5.396
Cash + ST Investments ($USD Millions)$146.574 $160.401 $165.544
DSO (Days)45 43 50
Inventory Turns (x)5.8 7.7 6.4
Deferred Revenue ($USD Millions)$24.827 $42.544 $40.515
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)$17.405 $5.855 $14.984

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent Guidance / ActualChange
Revenue ($M)Q4 2025N/A$131–$141 Initiated
Non-GAAP EPS (Diluted, $)Q4 2025N/A$0.13–$0.19 Initiated
GAAP EPS (Diluted, $)Q4 2025N/A$0.00–$0.06 Initiated
Revenue ($M)Q3 2025$133–$143 $139.529 Met within range
Non-GAAP EPS (Diluted, $)Q3 2025$0.12–$0.18 $0.16 Met midpoint
Subscriptions & Services Revenue ($M)FY 2025~$300 ~$310 Raised

Note: Guidance excludes unknown late-quarter items; outlook includes estimated tariff impact .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q1 & Q2)Current Period (Q3)Trend
AI/technology initiativesLaunched Arlo Secure 6 with new AI features in Q1 ; “driving growth” in Q2 ARPU >$15/month; LTV >$870; services GM >85% Improving
Supply chain/logisticsPreparation for updated product line in 2025 Executed largest product launch amid shipping/weather disruptions; on-time load-in Improving
Tariffs/macroTariff risk reiterated First full quarter tariff impact (~$5M) depressing product GM ; tariff risk reiterated Headwind persists
Product performanceQ1 set-up for updated line ; Q2 ASP declines/promos Unit sales +~29% y/y; BOM -20–35%; negative product GM by design to drive subs Mixed (volume up, margin pressured)
Regional trendsEMEA mix high historically Americas 60.1%, EMEA 35.5%; EMEA down y/y ; international revenue 42% US strength; EMEA softer
Strategic partnershipsADT announced as strategic partner (Q2) Verisure IPO/ADT Mexico; Allstate deployments; ADT testing; more partnerships expected Expanding
R&D executionElevated investment; go-to-market leverage (Q2) Continued investment supporting Secure 6 and product launches; R&D $18.1M Sustained investment

Management Commentary

  • CEO: “Our ARR accelerated to $323 million, up about 34% year over year, driving non-GAAP subscriptions and services gross margin to over 85%... The comprehensive launch of our refreshed product portfolio, coupled with our Arlo Secure 6 AI-driven security platform, positions us well for a successful holiday season” .
  • CEO: “There are very few companies... that can excel in both software service and hardware device segments... Adjusted EBITDA was up 50% year over year and reached $17 million. GAAP EPS was $0.07, a new record” .
  • CFO: “Non-GAAP subscriptions and services gross margin was 85%... Product gross margins were negative... full quarter impact of tariffs approximating $5 million... and planned promotional spend on EOL products” .
  • CEO: Long-range plan targets: “10 million paid accounts, $700 million in ARR, and operating income over 25%” with ~60% of incremental growth expected from strategic accounts .

Q&A Highlights

  • Product margin bridge and BOM: Non-GAAP product GM -17.3%; excluding tariffs (~$5M) ~-8%; EOL promotions weighed on margins as inventory cleared for next-gen portfolio .
  • Partnerships: Verisure’s ADT Mexico acquisition opens Latin America; Arlo is exclusive provider of certain back-end services and custom cameras; ADT testing underway with potential material impact; more sizable partnerships expected by Q1/Q2 next year .
  • Sell-through and shipments: POS units +~29% y/y; forecast 20–30% POS growth in Q4; seasonality plus exceptional execution drove strong Q3 shipments; no pull-forward from Q4 .
  • Retail channels: Wider Walmart shelf share (from ~4–5 SKUs to ~9), gaining share at Amazon; positioning for competitive holiday quarter to drive household formation and future service revenue .

Estimates Context

Q3 2025 Actual vs Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricActualConsensus*Δ
Revenue ($USD Millions)$139.529 $138.689*+$0.840M (beat)*
Non-GAAP EPS (Diluted, $)$0.16 $0.1482*+$0.0118 (beat)*

Q4 2025 Guidance vs Consensus (S&P Global)

MetricGuidance (Midpoint)Consensus*Context
Revenue ($USD Millions)$136 (mid of $131–$141) $135.5738*In-line*
Non-GAAP EPS (Diluted, $)$0.16 (mid of $0.13–$0.19) $0.1642*In-line to slight downside*

Values retrieved from S&P Global.*

Implications: modest Q3 beat supports estimate stability; Q4 guide in-line suggests limited near-term estimate volatility, with mix shift and tariff headwinds as swing factors .

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Services-led model is driving durable margin expansion: non-GAAP services GM at 85.1% and ARR at $323.2M underpin earnings quality and cash generation .
  • Short-term GM pressure from tariffs and EOL promotions is a tactical choice to accelerate household formation; excluding tariffs, product GM improves materially (to ~-8%) .
  • Product refresh (20–35% BOM reductions) plus broader retail shelf space should sustain 20–30% POS unit growth into Q4, setting up 2026 services growth .
  • Strategic accounts are a major growth lever (Verisure/ADT/Allstate), with additional partnerships likely in the next 1–2 quarters; management expects ~60% of incremental growth from strategics .
  • Q3 performance was within prior guidance ranges; Q4 revenue/EPS guidance is in-line with consensus, reducing near-term estimate risk while highlighting execution on services mix .
  • Watch EMEA softness and rising DSOs (50 days) as potential working capital and regional demand signals; inventory turns remain healthy at 6.4x .
  • Management raised FY services revenue guide from ~$300M to ~$310M, reflecting stronger sell-through and subscription uptake, supportive of continued non-GAAP EPS outperformance .

## Additional Detail and Cross-References
- Q3 revenue mix: Subscriptions/services $79.942M (57.3%), Products $59.587M **[1736946_0001736946-25-000040_arloearningsrelease20251106.htm:8]**.  
- Consolidated GAAP GM declined q/q (40.5% vs 44.9%), but improved y/y (+530 bps), consistent with services margin expansion and product transition dynamics **[1736946_0001736946-25-000040_arloearningsrelease20251106.htm:8]** **[1736946_0001736946-25-000030_arloearningsrelease20250807.htm:8]**.  
- Free cash flow was $14.984M in Q3; YTD FCF $48.956M with ~12.6% FCF margin **[1736946_0001736946-25-000040_arloearningsrelease20251106.htm:11]** **[1736946_0001736946-25-000040_arloearningsrelease20251106.htm:0]**.  
- Cash and ST investments increased to $165.544M (+$19M y/y) **[1736946_0001736946-25-000040_arloearningsrelease20251106.htm:12]** **[0001736946_2246271_4]**.