AT
Arlo Technologies, Inc. (ARLO)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary
Executive Summary
- Q3 2025 revenue was $139.529M, up 1.4% y/y and up 7.8% q/q, with subscriptions/services comprising 57.3% of revenue; GAAP EPS hit a record $0.07 and non-GAAP EPS was $0.16 .
- Services KPIs accelerated: ARR reached $323.2M (+33.8% y/y), non-GAAP services gross margin expanded to 85.1% (+770 bps y/y), and paid accounts rose to 5.396M (+27.4% y/y) .
- Against S&P Global consensus, Arlo delivered a modest beat on both revenue ($139.529M vs $138.689M*) and non-GAAP EPS ($0.16 vs $0.1482*); Q4 guidance calls for revenue of $131–$141M and non-GAAP diluted EPS of $0.13–$0.19 .
- Key narrative: services-first model and AI-driven Arlo Secure 6 underpin margin expansion; near-term product gross margin remains negative due to tariffs (~$5M hit) and EOL promotions, but BOM cost reductions (20–35%) and unit growth (~29% y/y) support future service growth and profitability .
What Went Well and What Went Wrong
What Went Well
- Services momentum and margin expansion: “Our ARR accelerated to $323 million, up about 34% year over year, driving non-GAAP subscriptions and services gross margin to over 85%, a record level” .
- AI platform traction and KPIs: CEO highlighted Arlo Secure 6 driving ARPU “over $15 per month” and LTV “over $870,” contributing to ARR and record profitability .
- Successful largest product launch in company history (100+ SKUs), with unit sales up ~29% y/y and BOM cost reductions of 20–35%, setting up Q4 POS and 2026 services growth .
What Went Wrong
- Product gross margin negative: non-GAAP product GM was -17.3%, driven by the first full quarter of tariffs (~$5M impact) and EOL promotional activity; excluding tariffs, product GM would have been ~-8% .
- Mixed consolidated gross margin q/q: GAAP GM fell to 40.5% from 44.9% in Q2 despite y/y improvement, reflecting tariff headwinds and planned promotions .
- EMEA revenue down y/y: EMEA declined to $49.602M (35.5% mix) vs $57.773M (42.0%) a year ago as US retail/Direct strengthened and product transition timing affected regions .
Financial Results
Headline Metrics vs Prior Year and Prior Quarter
Segment Breakdown
Revenue by Geography
KPIs
Guidance Changes
Note: Guidance excludes unknown late-quarter items; outlook includes estimated tariff impact .
Earnings Call Themes & Trends
Management Commentary
- CEO: “Our ARR accelerated to $323 million, up about 34% year over year, driving non-GAAP subscriptions and services gross margin to over 85%... The comprehensive launch of our refreshed product portfolio, coupled with our Arlo Secure 6 AI-driven security platform, positions us well for a successful holiday season” .
- CEO: “There are very few companies... that can excel in both software service and hardware device segments... Adjusted EBITDA was up 50% year over year and reached $17 million. GAAP EPS was $0.07, a new record” .
- CFO: “Non-GAAP subscriptions and services gross margin was 85%... Product gross margins were negative... full quarter impact of tariffs approximating $5 million... and planned promotional spend on EOL products” .
- CEO: Long-range plan targets: “10 million paid accounts, $700 million in ARR, and operating income over 25%” with ~60% of incremental growth expected from strategic accounts .
Q&A Highlights
- Product margin bridge and BOM: Non-GAAP product GM -17.3%; excluding tariffs (~$5M) ~-8%; EOL promotions weighed on margins as inventory cleared for next-gen portfolio .
- Partnerships: Verisure’s ADT Mexico acquisition opens Latin America; Arlo is exclusive provider of certain back-end services and custom cameras; ADT testing underway with potential material impact; more sizable partnerships expected by Q1/Q2 next year .
- Sell-through and shipments: POS units +~29% y/y; forecast 20–30% POS growth in Q4; seasonality plus exceptional execution drove strong Q3 shipments; no pull-forward from Q4 .
- Retail channels: Wider Walmart shelf share (from ~4–5 SKUs to ~9), gaining share at Amazon; positioning for competitive holiday quarter to drive household formation and future service revenue .
Estimates Context
Q3 2025 Actual vs Consensus (S&P Global)
Q4 2025 Guidance vs Consensus (S&P Global)
Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
Implications: modest Q3 beat supports estimate stability; Q4 guide in-line suggests limited near-term estimate volatility, with mix shift and tariff headwinds as swing factors .
Key Takeaways for Investors
- Services-led model is driving durable margin expansion: non-GAAP services GM at 85.1% and ARR at $323.2M underpin earnings quality and cash generation .
- Short-term GM pressure from tariffs and EOL promotions is a tactical choice to accelerate household formation; excluding tariffs, product GM improves materially (to ~-8%) .
- Product refresh (20–35% BOM reductions) plus broader retail shelf space should sustain 20–30% POS unit growth into Q4, setting up 2026 services growth .
- Strategic accounts are a major growth lever (Verisure/ADT/Allstate), with additional partnerships likely in the next 1–2 quarters; management expects ~60% of incremental growth from strategics .
- Q3 performance was within prior guidance ranges; Q4 revenue/EPS guidance is in-line with consensus, reducing near-term estimate risk while highlighting execution on services mix .
- Watch EMEA softness and rising DSOs (50 days) as potential working capital and regional demand signals; inventory turns remain healthy at 6.4x .
- Management raised FY services revenue guide from ~$300M to ~$310M, reflecting stronger sell-through and subscription uptake, supportive of continued non-GAAP EPS outperformance .
## Additional Detail and Cross-References
- Q3 revenue mix: Subscriptions/services $79.942M (57.3%), Products $59.587M **[1736946_0001736946-25-000040_arloearningsrelease20251106.htm:8]**.
- Consolidated GAAP GM declined q/q (40.5% vs 44.9%), but improved y/y (+530 bps), consistent with services margin expansion and product transition dynamics **[1736946_0001736946-25-000040_arloearningsrelease20251106.htm:8]** **[1736946_0001736946-25-000030_arloearningsrelease20250807.htm:8]**.
- Free cash flow was $14.984M in Q3; YTD FCF $48.956M with ~12.6% FCF margin **[1736946_0001736946-25-000040_arloearningsrelease20251106.htm:11]** **[1736946_0001736946-25-000040_arloearningsrelease20251106.htm:0]**.
- Cash and ST investments increased to $165.544M (+$19M y/y) **[1736946_0001736946-25-000040_arloearningsrelease20251106.htm:12]** **[0001736946_2246271_4]**.