Alliance Resource Partners - Q3 2023

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Hello, and welcome to the Alliance Resource Partners third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. If anyone should require operator assistance, please press star zero on your telephone keypad. A question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. You may be placed into question queue at any time by pressing star one on your telephone keypad. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It's now my pleasure to turn the call over to Senior Vice President and CFO, Cary Marshall. Please go ahead, sir.

Cary Marshall (SVP and CFO)

Thank you, operator, and welcome everyone. Earlier this morning, Alliance Resource Partners released its third quarter 2023 financial and operating results, and we will now discuss those results as well as our perspective on current market conditions and outlook for the balance of 2023. Following our prepared remarks, we will open the call to answer your questions. Before beginning, a reminder that some of our remarks today may include forward-looking statements subject to a variety of risks, uncertainties, and assumptions contained in our filings from time to time with the Securities and Exchange Commission, and are also reflected in this morning's press release.

While these forward-looking statements are based on information currently available to us, if one or more of these risks or uncertainties materialize, or if our underlying assumptions prove incorrect, actual results may vary materially from those we projected or expected. In providing these remarks, the partnership has no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement, whether as a result of new information, future events, or otherwise, unless required by law to do so. Finally, we will also be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. Definitions and reconciliations of the differences between these non-GAAP financial measures and the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are contained at the end of ARLP's press release, which has been posted on our website and furnished to the SEC on Form 8-K.

With the required preliminaries out of the way, I will begin with a review of our results for the third quarter, then turn the call over to Joe Craft, our Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer, for his comments. Total revenues in the 2023 quarter increased slightly to $636.5 million, compared to $632.5 million in the 2022 quarter. The modest year-over-year improvement was driven primarily by higher transportation and other revenues, partially offset by lower oil and gas royalties. Total coal sales price per ton rose to $64.94 per ton for the 2023 quarter, an increase of 8.3% versus the 2022 quarter, and continues to reflect the positive impacts of our contracted order book. On a sequential basis, coal sales price per ton was 3.2% higher.

In our royalty segment, total revenues were $53.1 million, down 9% year over year, but up 6.2% sequentially. Our results versus the prior year period reflect lower realized oil and gas commodity pricing that more than offset record oil and gas volumes and increases in coal royalty revenue per ton. Specifically, coal royalty revenue per ton was up 13.5% compared to the 2022 quarter, while lower commodity prices led to oil and gas royalties average realized sales prices being down 31.2% per barrel of oil equivalent versus the 2022 quarter. Sequentially, coal royalty revenue per ton was up 3.7%, and oil and gas royalties average sales prices were up 2.1% per barrel of oil equivalent.

As it relates to volume, coal production decreased 7% to 8.4 million tons, while coal sales volumes decreased 7.9% to 8.5 million tons compared to the 2022 quarter. Compared to the sequential quarter, coal sales volumes decreased 5% due to lower sales volumes in our Appalachia segment. Coal sales volumes in Appalachia were down 15.2% compared to the sequential quarters due to lock outages, customer plant maintenance, a reduction in operating shifts at our MC Mining operation, and challenging geologic conditions at our Mettiki longwall operation that has delayed development of a new longwall district. Coal royalty tons sold declined 11.8% year-over-year, while oil and gas royalty volumes increased 28.2% on a barrel of oil equivalent basis year-over-year.

The increased volumes from oil and gas resulted from the acquisition of additional oil and gas mineral interests and increased drilling and completion activities on our acreage. Turning to costs, segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton sold for our coal operations was $41.19 per ton, an increase of 13.8% and 8.8%, respectively, versus the 2022 and sequential quarters. Higher labor, maintenance, purchase coal and sales-related expenses per ton, particularly in Appalachia, all contributed to the higher cost. The Appalachia segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton increased by $11.06 per ton and $12.80 per ton, respectively, compared to the 2022 and sequential quarters. Of the total increases, approximately $3.97 per ton and $5.91 per ton, respectively, were attributable to Mettiki, which had the longwall idle during the full 2023 quarter.

The longwall at Mettiki is expected to be back in production in the new longwall district in late November. Brokerage bought and sold at a profit in our Appalachia segment, some high-cost coal during the 2023 quarter, which accounted for approximately $3.07 and $1.59 per ton of the increased expense compared to the 2022 and sequential quarters. The balance of the Appalachia cost increase during the 2023 quarter was due to a 20% drop in production at our MC Mining operation and adverse mining conditions and equipment availability at our Tunnel Ridge mine, which resulted in several lost unit shifts during the 2023 quarter. Our net income in 2023 was $153.7 million, 8.4% lower as compared to the 2022 quarter.

The decrease reflects lower coal sales volumes, higher production expenses, and lower realized prices in oil and gas royalties, partially offset by higher coal sales price per ton realization and higher volumes in oil and gas royalties. EBITDA for the quarter was $227.6 million, down 10.3% as compared to the prior year period. Now turning to our balance sheet and uses of cash. Alliance generated $123.7 million of free cash flow in the 2023 quarter. Our total and net leverage ratios were 0.36 and 0.17 times, respectively, total debt to trailing twelve months adjusted EBITDA. Total liquidity was $629.5 million at quarter end, which included approximately $197.2 million of cash on the balance sheet. During the 2023 quarter, we paid a quarterly distribution of $0.70 per unit, equating to an annualized rate of $2.80 per unit.

This distribution level is unchanged sequentially and up 40% versus the prior year quarter. Additionally, we reduced our outstanding senior notes balance by $54.6 million and completed two strategic new venture investments in Ascend Elements and Infinitum during the 2023 quarter, totaling approximately $50 million. Now turning to our updated guidance detailed in this morning's release. We have elected to slightly adjust our full year 2023 coal sales volumes and pricing, which will be highly dependent upon logistics during the fourth quarter. We now anticipate ARLP's overall coal sales volumes in 2023 to be in the range of 34.5-35 million tons. Our committed tonnage for 2023 is 35 million tons. Of that total, 29.7 million is committed domestically, and 5.3 million tons are committed to the export markets.

We are encouraged by improving coal export market fundamentals based on recent international benchmark pricing. We believe there could be some incremental sales opportunities in late 2023 in the export markets. For 2024, we currently have 27.3 million tons committed, comprised of 25.7 million tons in the domestic markets and 1.6 million tons for the export markets. As we look to 2024, we do believe there is opportunity in 2024 for us to ship more tons into the export markets in 2024 versus 2023 levels based on current export market fundamentals. Sales pricing for the year is expected to be slightly lower than at the time of our last update. We have chosen to modestly adjust our outlook for average coal price realizations for 2023 to a new range of $64.50-$66 per ton, from $65-$66 per ton previously communicated.

On the cost side, we have narrowed our full year 2023 segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton to a new range of $39.50-$40.50 per ton from the previous range of $38-$41 per ton. We have fourth quarter 2023 longwall moves scheduled at our Hamilton Mine in the Illinois Basin and our Tunnel Ridge operation in Appalachia. We do expect Appalachia segment adjusted EBITDA expense per ton in the fourth quarter to be approximately 8%-10% higher than 2023 quarter cost per ton, while Illinois Basin fourth quarter cost per ton are anticipated to be in line with the 2023 quarter. In our oil and gas segment, we are reiterating our guidance ranges for the full year, and all of our other guidance items are unchanged.

With that, I will turn the call over to Joe for comments on the market and his outlook for ARLP. Joe?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thank you, Cary, and good morning, everyone. I want to begin my comments by thanking the entire Alliance organization for their continued hard work and dedication. I am proud of all that has been accomplished through the first three quarters of the year, as we are on track to achieve another record year, beating last year's full year's revenue and net income numbers. Our well-contracted coal order book enabled us to navigate an otherwise challenging operating environment during the 2023 quarter. Our coal segment achieved higher realized pricing per ton sold relative to both the 2022 and sequential quarters, a theme that continues to favorably impact year-to-date results, particularly with regards to EBITDA and net income.

However, we did face some difficult mining conditions in Appalachia at all three mines during the 2023 quarter, which resulted in higher operating costs and fewer tons produced versus previous expectations. Mild weather experienced in the first half of the year, combined with lower natural gas prices throughout the year, have impacted coal consumption in 2023, preventing us from topping last year's record coal sales volumes. As we look to next year, we have seen a recent increase in the natural gas forward curve, as well as a jump in API2 pricing, due in large part to the conflict in the Middle East. At projected pricing levels, we believe that our export potential in 2024 will improve markedly as compared to the back half of 2023.

Our oil and gas royalty segment reported continued growth in the 2023 quarter, resulting in record production volumes, underscoring the success of recent acquisitions in core parts of the prolific Permian Basin. Although average realized that pricing per BOE during the 2023 quarter was lower compared to near record levels in the 2022 quarter, our royalty portfolio is well positioned to provide significant cash flow via hedge-free exposure to commodity price and cost-free organic growth. We expect additional growth and production will lead to record production volumes in 2024 as we continue to invest in minerals. The strong cash flow generation of our underlying businesses positions us to continue improving our balance sheet and pursue the highest and best uses for our capital.

During the quarter, we paid our regular distribution, repurchased and redeemed a portion of our outstanding senior notes, and announced two exciting investments made by our new ventures group. The first was a $25 million investment in Ascend Elements, which is a U.S.-based manufacturer and recycler of sustainable engineered battery materials for EVs. The investment was part of their $460 million Series D funding round, which, when combined with a $480 million DOE grant, will help advance the construction of North America's first commercial-scale manufacturing facility, producing cathode materials for EV batteries, located essentially in our backyard in Hopkinsville, Kentucky. Beyond our initial contribution, we plan to evaluate additional partnership opportunities with Ascend to expand our investment in the battery recycling industry and support the critical materials infrastructure needed to facilitate the onshoring of U.S. battery manufacturing.

The second investment included an additional $25 million in Infinitum, a Texas-based developer and manufacturer of high-efficiency electric motors, as part of their ongoing Series E equity raise. If you recall, we originally invested in Infinitum in April of 2022, and with today's announcement, our total investment in Infinitum is now $67 million, making us a meaningful investor in the company. We believe Infinitum's patented AirCore motor technology has significant market potential, and our technology division, Matrix, is actively exploring opportunities to collaborate with Infinitum and incorporate the technology into our current mining operations. In closing, I am proud of ARLP's performance year to date and encouraged by the opportunities in front of us. We remain focused on finishing the year strong and gearing up for what should be another successful year in 2024.

That concludes our prepared comments, and I'll now ask the operator to open the call for questions. Operator?

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We'll now be conducting a question and answer session. If you'd like to be placed in the question queue, please press star one on your telephone keypad. A confirmation tone will indicate your line is in the question queue. You may press star two if you'd like to remove your question from the queue. For participants using speaker equipment, it may be necessary to pick up your handset before pressing star one. One moment please, while we pull for questions. Our first question is coming from Nathan Martin from Benchmark Company. Your line is now live.

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Hey, thanks, operator. Good morning, Joe, Cary. Appreciate you taking my questions.

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Good morning, Nate.

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Just maybe a quick clarification to start. Cary, you mentioned Appalachian cost per ton could be up 8%-10% in the fourth quarter. Just want to confirm that's versus the 3Q 2023 results, so that's $54.84. And you also said a minute ago that IB costs, Illinois Basin costs, should be flat. Was that also with the third quarter of 2023?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yes, that's right, Nate.

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Okay, perfect. Thanks for that. Kind of moving on. I think, you know, when we talked last quarter, obviously the expectation was, sales would outpace production in the second half to help draw down inventories, I think, to around 500,000 tons or so by the year end. Unfortunately, that, that didn't really work out here in the third quarter because some of the items you guys mentioned, I think it was only about a 100,000-ton draw. You know, what, what do you need from a logistics standpoint to kind of get you to the high or the low end of your revised full year guidance? Are there any-- are there any carryover effects from some of those 3Q items you guys mentioned, like, you know, the lock outages, customer maintenance, et cetera?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. So when you look at the sales range, we show that our, you know, our contracted position for 2023 is 35 million. That's what we are targeting to ship in for the full year. There could be logistical impacts that could drop that to the 34-35. The tons are sold. Whatever would not be delivered would be really primarily driven by making sure that we have the proper transportation and deliveries, vessel loadings, etc., occurring during the fourth quarter. Whatever doesn't occur in the fourth quarter will roll over into 2025. So part of our mix, when you get into sales price and you get into the volume, it does try to focus on, you know, what will be the specific contracts that are being served in the particular years.

So when you think in terms of the pricing, it's really not from one quarter to the next. I mean, the revenue is gonna be basically the same. It's just a timing issue. You know, Cary mentioned in his prepared remarks that there is potential that we could pick up some additional export ton sales in the fourth quarter. If that were to happen, those would be at a little lower price than what our contract tons that would be rolled over into 2024. So that's the issue. So from a volume perspective, if we can ship what we want to ship and what we plan to ship, you know, we will be in inventory levels near where we talked about last quarter, I believe.

If for some reason we get delayed, and we go to the 34.5, then that's gonna push those inventory levels up. It's a matter of logistics on shipping. I think from a production standpoint, you know, our production impact for the quarter, in both Mettiki and MC Mining, is gonna continue into the fourth quarter. We've had some people, you know, trying to retain sufficient people at our MC Mining, has been a challenge for us. We had to reduce a unit of production at MC Mining, towards the back end of the last quarter. That's gonna continue into the fourth quarter. Then at Mettiki, as Carey mentioned, the longwall is not expected to start until the end of November.

So we'll pick up a little bit of tons with the longwall production, but still, we are, you know, our production is limiting our ability to, to ship some export tons, coming out of those two operations.

Cary Marshall (SVP and CFO)

I think the only other thing I would add to that, Nate, is you know, when I made reference to the lock outages and the customer maintenance issues, those are flowing now. The customers that we were referring to in our comments are back online now. And so the tons there are flowing as well.

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Very helpful, guys. Appreciate that. And then, maybe continuing with the export theme for a second. You mentioned improving export coal demand, then, you know, based on recent trends in the API2 price, as well as, you know, emerging opportunities in the market. Can you, can you talk about what those emerging, emerging opportunities entail? And then second, you mentioned 2024 export, potentially should improve markedly versus 2023. So how many export tons do you expect this year? And then how should we think about ARLP's, you know, export tonnage over the next few years?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

So right now, we're targeting 5.3, which is what we've got contracted. We could pick up another couple of vessels in 2023, so that number could go up a little bit. It's also possible that number could slide a little bit, depending on vessels for the, for this particular year. As we look to next year, you know, as we've said previously, we believe we have a strong domestic market share for right at 30 million tons. We do think, however, in 2024, that there's still continuing overhang of inventory at our utilities. And we expect that the market pricing for export is gonna be better than the domestic market. So we may be a tad lower than the 29.7. Maybe it's 28, don't know for sure.

And whatever that would be, it would flow into the export market. As we think of our sales for 2024, right now, I think a conservative estimate is consistent with what we're doing in 2023. But we do have—we believe we would have the potential, based on what we're seeing in the export market right now, to possibly expand that to 36 million, if the export market opportunities do in fact occur as we're projecting. So there could be that spread of, you know, maybe going as high as 7.5 million-8 million tons in the export market next year. It's gonna depend between the domestic and export opportunities that are presented to us in 2024.

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Got it, Joe. Thanks. And then just maybe wrapping up with a question on the domestic side. I think you mentioned last quarter, there are a number of customers out, you know, with RFPs, looking to fill their books up for 2024 and beyond, I think many for multi-year periods. You know, you mentioned some of the issues we've had this year with the high utility stockpiles and nat gas prices, but it'd just be great to get your updated thoughts on what you guys are seeing in the market and how that demand looks for, you know, the next couple of years.

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah, we're participating in a couple of solicitations right now for tonnage in the 2025-2028 time period. Again, for 2024, there is some solicitations also. There are more volumes in the out years than it is in 2024. When we look at the tonnage we were able to book in the third quarter, we actually booked 1.1 million tons of opportunity, but it's mostly in 2023, and then that has allowed for some rollover into 2024, as we look at that position. So again, you know, we're very comfortable that 2025, the market reopens to where we will be at that 30 million ton level, at least on domestic sales.

We would like to expect that, that's gonna continue through the balance of this decade, that we would be at that 30 million ton level domestically, and feel that the contracts will definitely be there for us, you know, as we progress, looking forward until the end of the decade. Then the export market, you know, we'll just have to read that and see if it's gonna be in that 7-8 million ton level, slide back, slide it up. It just depends on whatever the market's gonna be at the time.

Nathan Martin (Equity Research Analyst)

Appreciate those comments. So I'll leave it there. Thank you, guys, for your time, and best of luck in the fourth quarter.

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question is coming from Mark Reichman from Noble Capital Markets. Your line is now live.

Mark Reichman (Managing Director)

Thank you, and good morning. So, just continuing that discussion on 2024. So I mean, you know, for 2023, from the last quarter, it looked like you picked up 500,000 tons in the export market, and for 2024, you picked up an additional 400,000 tons, kind of split evenly between domestic and export. Now, that's a little slower than where you were last year, third quarter compared to the second quarter. So is this just a timing, or do you think I mean, do you, are you looking at it from the standpoint that, yes, this overhang, it's, it's, it's slowing things down a little bit, could weigh on domestic pricing, but you'll make some of that up in the export market?

Or do you feel like the domestically, it's just kind of a timing that you would, at kind of the very least, you know, be kind of even with 2023 levels?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

We think consumption in the U.S. domestic market for coal in 2024 will be very comparable to 2023. And we know that was impacted by natural gas prices.

Mark Reichman (Managing Director)

Right.

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

We, you know, are seeing natural gas prices rise compared to where it's been in 2023, so there could be some upside to that. But there is still the increased inventory that the utilities have to, they would like to work down, and maybe that's 20-day supply at both the Illinois Basin and, and Northern Appalachia. So we're not anticipating the increase in sales, as I just mentioned, to the domestic market. So we do believe we will be selling more tons in the export market in 2024 than 2023, as we look at our book of business today. So again.

Mark Reichman (Managing Director)

Okay. That's very helpful.

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

35 million tons of sales this year, 35 million next year, possibly going to 36, depending on what the demand is for coal.

Mark Reichman (Managing Director)

Okay. No, that's very helpful. And then also, you know, this quarter, I had not assumed any outside coal purchases during the quarter. You know, and you had some in the second quarter. Do you expect any in the fourth quarter?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

So those purchases were really caused by our longwall not producing in the third quarter. So, when we look in the fourth quarter, Cary, I don't think we have very much.

Cary Marshall (SVP and CFO)

Maybe just a modest amount. It's, it's not very much at all, Mark.

Mark Reichman (Managing Director)

Oh, okay, great. And then just lastly, on capital allocation, you know, Joe, you did a very, you know, articulated kind of your capital allocation strategy, on the last quarter, call. But, you know, the company's finding some very promising investments outside its traditional businesses. So, I mean, if you were to wanting to increase, let's say, you know, the amount of investments, you know, outside the traditional businesses, how are you thinking about claims on cash flow for 2024? You know, being, you know, the debt repayment, the, the dividend or the distribution, you know, versus, growth expenditures?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. I think when we're to respond to that question, we have been evaluating opportunities to refinance some of the senior notes as opposed to paying them off. That would free that cash flow up. So there's about four different avenues we're evaluating, and we find that they're promising, that it's more likely than not we'll be able to do that. So that's gonna free up, so we're 2.85 today, Cary, is that.

Cary Marshall (SVP and CFO)

That's right.

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah.

Cary Marshall (SVP and CFO)

Yeah.

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Assuming that we can refinance at 2.85, that's gonna free up some capital that allows us to follow the path that I talked about last quarter on our capital allocations.

Mark Reichman (Managing Director)

That's very helpful. Thank you so much.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Next question is coming from David Marsh from Singular Research. Your line is now live.

David Marsh (Equity Research Analyst)

Hi, guys. Thanks for taking the questions. I just wanted to follow up, actually, on kind of where that last line of questioning was going with regard to the. So you have acquisitions outside of the coal space into, you know, some of the, the newer ventures. Could you just talk about kind of the long-term, you know, a long-term plan and thought process in terms of, you know, how, how large these external investments could grow? And, obviously, you know, I think it's pretty exciting that the acquisition in, into the, into the electric vehicle battery recycling space. So could you just talk about, you know, any other spaces that you're looking at, you know, outside of the traditional coal and oil and gas spaces that you know could be potentially on the horizon?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Yeah. So I think we mentioned in our, our release, as well as in Cary's comments and, and mine as well, that both of our investments in well, the investment in Ascend, as well as the investment that we've made in, in Infinitum, we believe not only are they investments in those companies, but we believe that they'll provide strategic opportunities for us that we could invest. And, you know, it's a little premature to give you exact dollar amounts as to what that could be, but it could be sizable. So what we're looking for with those relationships are the ability to invest in businesses that we can bring online that would be sustainable for many years, and that can generate cash flow that actually can be financeable as well. So that's our goal within those two investments.

We have focused within our technology group at Matrix to focus on the battery space, and that battery space can be anything from what we're talking about with Ascend. It could be with battery recycling. It can also be in battery storage, whether it be for industrial, whether it be for commercial, whether it be for utility grade battery storage that we think is necessary. There could be, in addition to the recycling, other aspects of battery technology. We're looking at some manufacturing work that can apply to the transmission area and the build-out of the grid, utilizing our our machine shops that we have within that are being managed by the Matrix group as well. We're also looking at Matrix and their products that they're developing.

We've talked in the past about them growing their cash flow with innovative products that they are bringing to market, specifically their IntelliZone, which is the product that we have now that has been providing the cash flow. You know, that's being broadened internationally, and we believe that has growth potential, and we're booking orders for 2024 in that specific area of Matrix. In addition, they've got OmniPro, which is we've talked about, that's also gonna be rolling out in 2024, which is a collision avoidance camera-type technology for the forklift industry.

We think that within that technology company we have, there are a lot of exciting things that their R&D group are looking at that we think will be adding meaningfully as we look over the next five-six years, you know, meaningfully growing that particular segment. So hopefully, it will be large enough to be a segment in three-four years if we can bring these things to market like we're currently anticipating. So those are some of the ideas that we have. And obviously, we're continuing to believe in our minerals segment and continuing to want to invest in that so that that can continue to grow as well as the other new venture concepts that I just outlined.

David Marsh (Equity Research Analyst)

That's, that's certainly very compelling for, you know, divesting away from the core business and, and making it a, a, you know, a little bit more interesting with, with some, with some potential upside kickers. So that's, that's compelling. With regard to the distribution, which, you know, you guys continue to maintain a very solid distribution, obviously, where the, where the units are trading now, dividend yield is, you know, very attractive. Would, would the cash flow at this, at this point in time and, and the outlook, support possibly an increase, in that distribution, you know, as we start to head into next year? Or, you know, given where the units are trading, is, you know, is the board perhaps evaluating, you know, maybe repurchasing some of the units?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

I think that as we look to next year, we're still in our planning process. However, sort of giving you some indication that we're looking at next year pretty much being a mirror of this year as far as where we are right now, thinking that our cash flow would be. It could, so when we think of distributions, we have the capability to maintain or grow. I think that right now, you know, we're focused on finishing out this year strong, and we are committed, with, as I've repeated the last two calls, with our distribution at the level it is this year. We, to be frank, we're a little disappointed that the market hasn't appreciated those, by, you know, the unit price not reflecting to where we've got a yield that's probably higher than it should be.

In other words, our unit price should be higher than where it is. But, you know, the board will, once we finalize our plan, present that to them, and we'll have a preliminary review with them in December, but the final plan will be approved in January, and we'll be in a position to better answer your question as to what the future distribution policy will be at our January call.

David Marsh (Equity Research Analyst)

Fair enough. Thanks, guys, for taking questions, and good luck with the fourth quarter.

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

You bet.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. As a reminder, that's star one to be placed in the question queue. Our next question is coming from Dave Storms from Stonegate. Your line is now live.

Dave Storms (Director of Equity Research)

Good morning.

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Good morning.

Dave Storms (Director of Equity Research)

Appreciate you taking questions. Just wanted to go back earlier in the call, you had mentioned that logistics are gonna be the big driver of what your shipped tons look like to close out the year. Are there any variables, any notable variables in the logistics channel that you're keeping a particular eye on?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

The primary is just our export shipments. So we do have inventory at the pier, but we're going to need to continue to ship coal from our mines to the piers, and we've had some low water in the Mississippi River that has slowed some of the barge movements. So it's really just a matter of timing of barge availability to be able to ship our tons, to be able to also match when the vessels come in and what the loading dates actually turn out to be. So that's the primary logistical issue that we'd be faced. I don't think with our domestic customers, there are any concerns about barge availability, water, et cetera, but it's more on the export side, where we could have some timing issues on vessel loadings.

Dave Storms (Director of Equity Research)

Understood. Thank you. And then, you also mentioned in the call just some challenges around labor and equipment in the quarter. Should we expect that that will be all wrapped up before the end of fiscal year 2024?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

From an equipment standpoint, yes. That was isolated, basically at both MC Mining and at Tunnel Ridge. Tunnel Ridge has already corrected itself. We've gotten the repairs. The delays are behind us. At MC Mining, we've had new deliveries for equipment to replace the older equipment that were delayed that caused some of the impact on production. And I think all those items are expected to be delivered now as we speak. So we do believe by the end of the year, from an equipment standpoint, that will be behind us. As far as headcount, right now, we're planning to run MC at three units, so that's still in the balance, so that still could be an issue for MC Mining, so that could be one unit of production.

But at all other mines, we're expecting that we'll be fully staffed to be able to meet our production levels that we're able to do this year and continue into next year. We are actually seeing some improvement in the Illinois Basin. So we've done some reevaluation of our approach to try to recruit by opening our Henderson County mine. That's opened a new market for some some workers that we're starting to see some increased applicant flow that's encouraging for our River View mine.

Dave Storms (Director of Equity Research)

That's, that's great to hear. And then lastly, you know, would just love to get your thoughts on the domestic regulatory environment, anything that you're watching, you know, with the upcoming election cycle or anything of that nature?

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Right. From a regulatory standpoint, the big issue is related to our customers. I mentioned about that in the last quarter. Not a lot's progressed in that area. There's eight different regulations that EPA has proposed. There's only one that's been finalized, and they're still out there. At the same time, what we've seen, really starting from last call through today, and I think it's gonna continue, is that we're starting to—the industry is starting to value the need for reliability. And because there is a concern of reliability and what the impact of these regulations may have on reliability of electricity generation, you know, that may have slowed down the process here. I don't really know why we haven't seen much progress. I'm not complaining, but it's still out there. It's still an issue.

However, I think the demand that's needed has been a recognition that, you know, similar to what you look at where the administration is on oil, right? I mean, they want to make daggone sure that gasoline prices are reasonable to low, so they're going to try to encourage enough supply to come on the market in an election year. I would hope that they don't want to see blackouts and brownouts on the electric side in an election year either. So maybe things will be delayed until after the election. It's hard to know, but they're still out there from EPA perspective. At the same time, they're just artificial compliance dates. There's no reason why they have to be on the certain dates that they got in proposed, and so we haven't seen the final.

They've got comments, so we got to wait and see what the final rules are to really be able to answer your question.

Dave Storms (Director of Equity Research)

That's very helpful. Appreciate the call, and good luck in the fourth quarter.

Joe Craft (Chairman, President and CEO)

Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We've reached the end of our question and answer session. I'd like to turn the floor back over to Cary for any further closing comments.

Cary Marshall (SVP and CFO)

Thank you, operator, and to everyone on the call. We appreciate your time this morning as well, and also your continued support and interest in Alliance. Our next call to discuss our fourth quarter 2023 financial and operating results is currently expected to occur in January, and we hope everyone will join us again at that time. This concludes our call for the day. Thank you.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. That does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your line at this time and have a wonderful day. We thank you for your participation today.