Executive Summary

Q1 2025 came in mixed: revenue fell 17% YoY to $540.5M on lower coal volumes/prices, but sequential profitability improved with net income up $57.7M and Adjusted EBITDA up 29% on better costs and higher O&G royalties .
Versus S&P Global consensus, ARLP missed revenue (–2.8% vs $556.3M*) but beat Primary EPS (+18.1% to $0.618*) and EBITDA (+6.2% to $161.4M*) on cost discipline and stronger O&G royalties; reported EPS was $0.57 per unit .
Guidance tweaked: 2025 coal sales raised (Total 32.75–34.75Mt from 32.25–34.25Mt; ILB +0.5Mt midpoint), O&G royalties expense ratio lifted to ~15% (from ~14%), net interest expense lowered ($39–$43M from $42–$46M) .
Contracting momentum (17.7Mt added for 2025–2028) and >96% of 2025 midpoint volumes now committed and priced underpin visibility; management prioritizes domestic shipments given stronger utility demand and policy backdrop .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Sequential rebound in profitability: net income +$57.7M and Adjusted EBITDA +$36.0M QoQ on cost improvements and higher O&G royalty pricing/volumes .
Cost progress in Illinois Basin: Segment Adj. EBITDA expense/ton fell 12.6% QoQ and 4.0% YoY; CEO: “operations performed as anticipated… delivering cost improvements in the Illinois Basin” .
Contracting strength and domestic demand: 17.7Mt of new commitments; “over 96%” of 2025 projected midpoint committed; domestic market strengthened on cold winter, higher gas prices, and lower utility coal inventories .

What Went Wrong

Appalachia headwinds: tons sold –22.7% YoY; Segment Adj. EBITDA/ton +32.7% YoY on lower recoveries, longwall moves, and challenging conditions at Tunnel Ridge .
YoY top-line pressure: total revenue –17.1% YoY to $540.5M from $651.7M on lower coal volumes, prices, and transportation revenues .
Digital assets mark-down: change in fair value of digital assets reduced net income by $5.6M in Q1 2025 .

Financial Results

Consolidated results (oldest → newest)

Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Revenue ($M)	$651.7	$590.1	$540.5
Net Income ($M)	$158.1	$16.3	$74.0
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.21	$0.12	$0.57
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	$238.4	$124.0	$159.9
EBITDA Margin %	34.35%*	21.15%*	29.86%*
Net Income Margin %	24.25%*	2.77%*	13.69%*

*Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Segment performance (oldest → newest)

Segment	Metric	Q1 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Illinois Basin	Tons sold (Mt)	6.437	6.596	6.042
	Price/ton ($)	57.58	54.38	55.15
	Seg. Adj. EBITDA exp/ton ($)	36.21	39.77	34.75
	Seg. Adj. EBITDA ($M)	140.3	101.0	126.2
Appalachia	Tons sold (Mt)	2.237	1.819	1.729
	Price/ton ($)	85.49	80.23	78.24
	Seg. Adj. EBITDA exp/ton ($)	52.53	76.79	69.73
	Seg. Adj. EBITDA ($M)	74.2	7.0	15.6
Total Coal	Tons sold (Mt)	8.674	8.415	7.771
	Price/ton ($)	64.78	59.97	60.29
	Seg. Adj. EBITDA exp/ton ($)	40.85	48.09	42.75
	Seg. Adj. EBITDA ($M)	210.9	105.4	140.2
Royalties – O&G	BOE sold (M)	0.898	0.823	0.880
	Avg sales price/BOE ($)	41.22	36.94	41.00
	Seg. Adj. EBITDA ($M)	31.4	25.6	29.9
Royalties – Coal	Royalty tons sold (Mt)	5.512	5.491	5.072
	Rev/royalty ton ($)	3.39	3.23	3.11
	Seg. Adj. EBITDA ($M)	12.4	10.5	9.4

KPIs and balance sheet

KPI	Q4 2024	Q1 2025
Liquidity ($M)	$593.9	$514.3
Cash & cash equivalents ($M)	$137.0	$81.3
Total debt & finance leases ($M)	$490.8	$484.1
Bitcoin held (units; $M fair value)	482; $45.0	513; $42.3
Coal inventory (Mt)	0.609	1.4
Quarterly distribution ($/unit)	$0.70	$0.70

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Feb 3)	Current Guidance (Apr 28)	Change
Illinois Basin sales tons (Mt)	FY2025	23.5–25.0	24.0–25.5	Raised
Appalachia sales tons (Mt)	FY2025	8.75–9.25	8.75–9.25	Maintained
Total coal sales tons (Mt)	FY2025	32.25–34.25	32.75–34.75	Raised
2025 committed & priced (Domestic/Export/Total, Mt)	FY2025	23.5/2.5/26.0	29.4/3.1/32.5	Raised
Coal sales price/ton – ILB ($)	FY2025	50–53	50–53	Maintained
Coal sales price/ton – Appalachia ($)	FY2025	76–82	76–82	Maintained
Total segment Adj. EBITDA expense/ton ($)	FY2025	40–44	40–44	Maintained
O&G royalties expense (% revenue)	FY2025	~14%	~15%	Raised
Royalty tons sold (Mt)	FY2025	23.75–25.25	23.75–25.25	Maintained
Revenue/royalty ton ($)	FY2025	3.20–3.40	3.20–3.40	Maintained
Depreciation, depletion & amortization ($M)	FY2025	270–290	280–300	Raised
G&A ($M)	FY2025	80–85	80–85	Maintained
Net interest expense ($M)	FY2025	42–46	39–43	Lowered
Income tax expense ($M)	FY2025	20–22	20–22	Maintained
Total capex ($M)	FY2025	285–320	285–320	Maintained
Maintenance capex ($M)	FY2025	280–310	280–310	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q3 2024	Q4 2024	Q1 2025	Trend
AI/data centers driving baseload demand	Rising baseload need; PJM auction signaled scarcity; customers extending retirements	Sharper focus on data centers/AI reshaping planning; favorable regulatory shift expected	White House forecasts +16% demand in 5 years; prioritizing domestic over export to serve data centers	Strengthening demand narrative
Regulatory/policy	Concern over grid reliability; PJM results highlight baseload value	Expect more supportive regs; delaying retirements	Trump EOs to expand coal-fired generation; expecting revised EPA rules to extend plant life	Improving policy backdrop
Contracting & domestic vs export	Building 2025 book; added 5.9Mt in 2025 committed/priced	Domestic solicitations rising; goal to ship 30Mt domestically	17.7Mt added 2025–2028; 2025 >96% committed; deprioritizing ILB exports	Stronger domestic orientation
Appalachia mining conditions	Longwall move and challenging geology elevated costs	Tunnel Ridge/Mettiki issues; improvement expected after district move	Improvement expected 2H25 (Tunnel Ridge new district late Q2), costs trending down	Improving in 2H
O&G royalties	Volume growth, price pressure	Record 2024 volumes; modest 2025 growth; selective acquisitions	QoQ uplift in price/BOE and volumes; full-year expense ~15% of revenue	Stable to improving volumes
Digital assets	Positive fair value contribution	Strategy to hold more amid supportive admin; fair value ~$45M	513 BTC; end-Q1 value $42.3M	Volatile but monitored

Management Commentary

“Our overall operations performed as anticipated during the quarter, delivering sequential and year-over-year cost improvements in the Illinois Basin.” — Joseph W. Craft III, CEO .
“We now have over 96% of our projected midpoint coal sales volumes contractually committed [for 2025]… domestic market strengthened considerably in early 2025.” — CEO .
“Second quarter 2025 coal sales volumes are anticipated to be 8% to 12% higher than the first quarter.” — CFO .
“We expect domestic sales to exceed our 30 million ton target this year.” — CEO on outlook .

Q&A Highlights

Policy impact and utility behavior: Management expects EPA rule revisions and Trump EOs to extend plant lives; utilities on lists for MATS waivers intend to take advantage; emphasis on keeping coal capacity operating at higher capacity factors .
Trade/tariffs: Steel/aluminum tariffs and copper prices are factored into 2025 costs; administration receptive to avoiding energy sector harm while addressing grid “emergency” .
Appalachia cost trajectory: Confidence in achieving FY cost ranges; Tunnel Ridge moving to a better district by end of June, improving 2H cost profile; Mettiki already in new panel with better results .
Capacity and growth: Potential for +~1–1.5Mt in 2026 from River View transition and Tunnel Ridge improvements, contingent on market .
Capital allocation: 2025 capex mostly maintenance; exploring power asset participation and data center infrastructure; disciplined O&G minerals growth given seller expectations and oil prices .

Estimates Context

Q1 2025 results vs S&P Global consensus

Metric	Consensus*	Actual*	Surprise
Revenue ($M)	556.3	540.5	–2.8%
Primary EPS ($)	0.523	0.618	+18.1%
EBITDA ($M)	152.0	161.4	+6.2%

*Values retrieved from S&P Global. Note: S&P “Primary EPS” and EBITDA may differ from reported EPS ($0.57) and Adjusted EBITDA ($159.9M) due to methodology and normalization .

Where estimates may adjust:

Appalachia cost cadence and 2Q volume uplift (+8–12% QoQ expected) could support upward revisions to 2Q–2H EBITDA and EPS if execution holds .
Guidance lifts in ILB tonnage and committed/priced volumes likely nudge 2025 revenue mix more domestic, with lower export exposure; net interest expense guide moved lower, supportive to EPS .
O&G royalties expense ratio raised to ~15% may temper minerals segment margin expectations .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Sequential execution improved despite a softer YoY tape; cost progress (especially ILB) and O&G pricing/volume tailwinds aided EPS/EBITDA beats vs S&P consensus* .
Contracting momentum and >96% committed/priced 2025 volumes de-risk near-term coal cash flows; prioritization of domestic customers aligns with policy and demand trends .
Appalachia remains the swing factor: 2H cost normalization at Tunnel Ridge/Mettiki is the key to sustaining margin stability into 2026 as legacy high-priced contracts roll off .
Policy backdrop is incrementally supportive (PJM capacity dynamics, EOs, expected EPA revisions), implying extended plant lives and sturdier domestic baseload demand .
Estimates risk skew: revenue sensitivity to volumes/prices remains, but mix, lower net interest guide, and cost discipline provide EPS cushion; watch O&G royalties expense ratio and commodity price paths .
Capital allocation turning more maintenance-focused post-project cycle; optionality in power/data-center infrastructure and selective O&G minerals M&A provides diversified growth levers .
Distribution held at $0.70; Board evaluating tariffs and macro uncertainties each quarter; coverage at 0.93x in Q1 reflects timing/cost cadence, with improvement expected as volumes rise .

Appendix: Additional Details

Drivers of beats/misses

Revenue miss vs consensus on lower coal volumes; EPS/EBITDA beat on cost progress (ILB), higher O&G price/volumes, and lower DD&A sequentially; digital assets marked down –$5.6M .

Inventory/demand and export posture

Coal inventory rose to 1.4Mt; management deprioritized ILB exports given domestic strength; utility solicitations robust as inventories normalize .

Distribution and tax notice

$0.70/unit declared; notice to brokers for non-U.S. unitholders re: withholding treatment .

Citations:

Q1 2025 8-K and Exhibit 99.1 press release:
Q1 2025 Business Wire press release:
Q1 2025 earnings call transcript:
Q4 2024 press release and transcript:
Q3 2024 press release:

S&P Global disclaimer: Items marked with an asterisk (*) are values retrieved from S&P Global.

ALLIANCE RESOURCE PARTNERS LP (ARLP)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary