AdvanSix - Q3 2023
November 3, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good morning, and welcome to the AdvanSix third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. All participants will be in listen-only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the star key followed by 0. After today's presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. Please note, this event is being recorded. I would like now to turn the conference over to Mr. Adam Kressel, VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer. Please go ahead.
Adam Kressel (VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer)
Thank you, Alan. Good morning, and welcome to AdvanSix's third quarter 2023 earnings conference call. With me here today are President and CEO, Erin Kane, and Senior Vice President and CFO, Michael Preston. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our website at investors.advansix.com. Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our business as we see it today. Those elements can change, and the actual results could differ materially from those projected, and we ask that you consider them in that light. We refer you to the forward-looking statements included in our press release and earnings presentation. In addition, we identify the principal risks and uncertainties that affect our performance in our SEC filings, including our annual report on Form 10-K, as further updated in subsequent filings with the SEC.
This morning, we'll review our financial results for the third quarter of 2023 and share our outlook for our key product lines and end markets. Finally, we'll leave time for your questions at the end. So with that, I'll turn the call over to AdvanSix's President and CEO, Erin Kane.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Thanks, Adam, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us and for your continued interest in AdvanSix. As you saw in our press release, AdvanSix navigated continued challenging market conditions in nylon solutions in the third quarter, while executing our larger planned multi-site turnaround for the year as expected. These factors overshadowed resilient performance within our acetone portfolio and solid results from our Plant Nutrients business in the seasonally slowest quarter of the year and amid lower nitrogen nutrient values and raw material input costs. The nylon environment has been pressured by unfavorable global industry supply and demand conditions for several quarters now and has approached trough industry spreads. In a global macro environment like this, our advantaged integrated business model, efficiency and diversification serve us well.
We have a demonstrated playbook to navigate these dynamics while maintaining our focus on smart, disciplined investments and a healthy balance sheet, which we have established to weather these conditions, as reflected in our ongoing repurchases and an increased dividend. This past quarter, we had three one-time transactions, as highlighted in our press release, supporting our portfolio simplification and execution of our long-term strategies. First, we accelerated our exit from the alliance with Oben, a third-party producer of films for the flexible packaging industry, under previously negotiated terms. This move provides both meaningful economic value and reduces business and operating model complexity, while enabling us to focus on our capabilities in resin production and sales. Second, we had a non-cash asset write-down associated with a licensee of certain legacy ammonium sulfate technology operated at their fertilizer manufacturing facility.
The licensee announced its intent to close its entire facility no later than August 31st, 2024. Lastly, we made the strategic decision to exit certain low-margin oximes products, namely AAO and MEKO, underscoring our focus on profitability and sustainability. We expect a net neutral impact to 2024 earnings as a result of this exit. Through these actions, we are reducing complexity to ensure our investments and resources are aligned with supporting our customer success in areas of highest impact. This is core to our strategic approach to focus on accelerating profitable growth. We've begun executing to our multi-year expansion in granular ammonium sulfate production through our SUSTAIN Program. We also continue to progress on grant funding from the USDA through the Fertilizer Production Expansion Program, which is in the midst of a public comment period, to partner with farmers on innovative domestic fertilizer production.
We have a proven track record of performance through a multitude of environments. We remain focused on what is in our control, including driving superior operational and commercial performance to meet the evolving needs of our customers, building capabilities to strengthen our innovation and portfolio resiliency, and executing against a balanced and disciplined capital deployment framework. Our organization's collective efforts are centered around driving best possible outcomes in the current set of dynamics. We believe that the underlying improvements we have made and smart investments we continue to make, support long-term sustainable performance and returns for AdvanSix and our key stakeholders. Now, let me turn the call over to Mike.
Michael Preston (SVP and CFO)
Okay, thanks, Erin, and good morning, everyone. I'm now on slide four, where I'll provide a summary of the third quarter of 2023 financial results. Sales of $323 million decreased approximately 33% in the third quarter. Pricing was unfavorable by 32% overall. Now, to break that down, market-based pricing was unfavorable by 24%. This primarily reflects reduced ammonium sulfate pricing amid lower raw material input costs and a more stable global nitrogen supply environment, as well as lower nylon pricing due to unfavorable global supply and demand conditions. Raw material pass-through pricing was also a headwind, down 8% as a result of a net cost decrease in benzene and propylene... Sales volume declined approximately 1% in the quarter. Adjusted EBITDA was approximately $7 million.
I will highlight the key year-over-year variances on the next slide. However, I would note that the net favorable $4.5 million pre-tax income impact of the three one-time transactions that Erin mentioned earlier, have been excluded from our adjusted EBITDA results, as well as adjusted EPS. Included in the appendix of the earnings presentation are the reconciliation and financial details associated with these transactions. Adjusted earnings per share was a loss of $0.36. The effective tax rate was 20.7% in the quarter. We now expect our full year 2023 effective tax rate to be approximately 23%. Finally, free cash flow was -$4 million in the quarter. Cash flow from operations of $21 million decreased roughly $38 million versus the prior year.
Now, this was primarily due to lower net income and the impact of changes in working capital, with less cash generated from working capital in the third quarter of 2023 compared to the prior year period. Capital expenditures of $25 million in the quarter increased $3 million versus the prior year. Now, let me turn to slide five. Here we highlight the key drivers of our third quarter adjusted EBITDA performance year-over-year. We saw an approximately $17 million favorable benefit from planned plant turnarounds year-over-year. As a reminder, this year's multi-site turnaround was primarily centered around our sulfuric acid plant, while last year's larger turnaround was focused primarily on our ammonia operations. And in 2024, we'll rotate back to our turnaround centered around our ammonia plant.
In addition, plant and SG&A costs were a $6 million tailwind in the quarter year-over-year, driven primarily by lower natural gas utility costs and lower functional spend. In the current environment, we're executing levers in our control, including an increased focus on cost controls. Pricing over raw materials was a roughly $45 million headwind and was the primary driver of the earnings decline compared to last year. Tracking our key variable margin drivers, performance across our caprolactam and nylon portfolio over our key raws was a significant headwind year-over-year. Chemical Intermediates price over raw spread was roughly flat year-over-year, as an increase in acetone margin over propylene costs was largely offset by performance across the remainder of our intermediates portfolio.
Lastly, ammonium sulfate, on a net price over natural gas and sulfur basis, was up year-over-year as lower pricing was more than offset by a reduction in raw material input costs. Finally, volume and sales mix were approximately $4 million unfavorable in the quarter, largely reflecting higher nylon export sales this year compared to last. With softness seen across our key nylon end markets in North America, we continue to leverage various sales channels to meet demand where it exists, including a higher share of exports. Now, let me turn the call back to Erin.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Thanks, Mike. I'm now on slide six to discuss each of our key product lines. We'll dive into nylon solutions further in a moment, but the key takeaway here is that the declines we've been experiencing have continued. Global composite caprolactam over benzene spreads were down nearly 20% on a sequential basis in the third quarter and are now approaching prior trough levels. In the fertilizer space, we saw seasonal nitrogen fertilizer pricing declines in the third quarter. I would note that ammonium sulfate prices were much more stable than urea prices earlier in the year. So when urea was falling significantly, we didn't see as sharp of a decline in ammonium sulfate pricing, and conversely, haven't seen as sharp of a rebound either.
Overall, fertilizer demand remains stable, and while global value chains continue to be more cautious in buying forward, our order position is very much in line with historical levels, and we remain confident in solid ammonium sulfate demand as we approach the 2024 spring application. Underlying agriculture fundamentals also remain favorable. From a crop perspective, corn prices have seen some fluctuations, with changes in projections of estimated planted acres, but remained healthy relative to historical levels. Farmer profitability expectations have also remained resilient. While raw material input costs have seen reductions recently, costs remain relatively high in other regions, steepening the industry cost curve and supporting higher overall nitrogen fertilizer prices. As we've navigated through a multi-quarter reset here and through the third quarter seasonal dynamics in North America, the underlying fundamentals continue to support firm fertilizer demand moving forward.
Lastly, in chemical intermediates, industry realized acetone prices over refinery-grade propylene costs continued to improve year-over-year in the third quarter. While acetone demand has seen softness, particularly into the large buyer end applications, we see supply is generally balanced. This has been supported by stable acetone imports into the U.S. and persistent lower global phenol operating rates on reduced demand into value chains serving building, construction, and other industrial applications. We also continue to monitor propylene costs, which declined again in the third quarter on weaker supply and demand. Our integrated operating model continues to serve us well in industry dynamics like these. Now, across the rest of our intermediates portfolio, demand has remained soft. For our U.S. amines business, which largely serves the ag chemical space, we've continued to face destocking headwinds as retailers and growers work through higher inventory. Let's turn to the next slide.
We thought it would be helpful to spend a moment and take a deeper dive on the nylon industry, given the significant change we've seen over the past few months and the impact it has had on our business. Overall, we continue to see global demand declines across most key end markets, leading to further margin compression in the industry. Here in North America, the higher interest rate environment has unfavorably impacted building and construction markets, as well as consumer spending, impacting packaging applications like bone-in meat and protective packaging. In engineered plastics, auto had been a more resilient end market for us. However, the recent auto worker strike has reduced demand modestly. We continue to leverage various sales channels to meet demand where it exists. It does include a higher share of exports, both caprolactam and nylon resin, which does come from a mixed consideration for our performance.
Exports represented approximately 13% of our total nylon solutions volume in the first half of this year, and is anticipated to reach approximately 30% in the fourth quarter. This is in line with progression of the cycles experienced previously, which have historically lasted 18-20 months. Amid the soft end market demand, increased competitive intensity is impacting global trade flows and pricing dynamics. We've seen China's global nylon exports reach all-time highs, as their slower growth economy is leading to increased exports to the rest of the world, including Europe and North America, at lower prices. In these regions, both nylon imports and domestic supply have been competing for market share, with regional price premiums experiencing downward pressure from these low-priced import offerings.
As you can see from the chart on the bottom left side of the page, the Asia industry caprolactam over benzene spreads are well below cycle averages and are approaching prior trough levels, as seen in both the 2015, 2016, and 2019, 2020 time frames. They average roughly $650 per ton in the third quarter. Nylon resin pricing, which tracks as a spread to caprolactam, has followed suit. Given the pressure on pricing, we are highly focused on driving productivity to improve unit profitability. We also continue to promote and sell the value proposition of our differentiated nylon products, including our new post-industrial and post-consumer recycled offerings. Let's turn to slide eight.
While future cycles may not be predicted by historical ones, we wanted to give some context and perspective to the industry performance for our key product lines over the last decade. As you may recall, we first presented this view at our 2021 Investor Day, and the presentation of these charts is slightly different than our typical quarterly pricing charts. Here we are sharing industry spreads, those key spreads that connect to our core variable margin equations for the business. The caprolactam chart represents the Asia imports, Taiwan caprolactam price, less Korea benzene. The ammonium sulfate chart represents Corn Belt ammonium sulfate price, less natural gas and sulfur. The acetone chart is a weighted average margin, assuming the split of acetone large buyer by 2/3 and a small, medium buyer by 1/3 over refinery grade propylene.
The cycles predominantly move with supply and demand dynamics and are inherently linked to underlying marginal producer cost curve economics. So note there have been some structural changes in the markets over this period. These include caprolactam and nylon capacity expansions in China and U.S. ammonium sulfate and acetone anti-dumping import duties. As you can see, we have both short and long cycle considerations, and all cycles do not move in sync. So what does this mean for our business? Despite the near-term challenges we're facing in nylon, we continue to focus our resources and investments in areas of the business with highest value and opportunity. We're seeing that play out across our plant nutrients and chemical intermediates product lines, which don't have the same cyclicality profile as nylon.
Similar to 2019, when our markets were facing a downturn, we continued to make smart investments to position our business for long-term sustainable performance, and we're doing that again now with investments across our IT platforms to support digital transformation, driving further improvements in operational performance and supporting long-term growth through projects like our SUSTAIN program. Now let me turn the call back to Mike.
Michael Preston (SVP and CFO)
Okay, thanks, Erin, and I'm now on slide nine. We continue to execute to a set of focus priorities to drive long-term shareholder returns by concentrating our resources and efforts around higher value components of our portfolio. The simplification of our portfolio supports our customers' success in areas of highest impact. As mentioned earlier, we made the decision to accelerate the exit of our alliance with Oben, recording a gain of $11.4 million in the third quarter. Going forward, we will continue to supply resin to Oben, while further developing our largest and most strategic customer relationships for growth across the product line. We also made the strategic decision to no longer supply specific low-margin oximes products, namely AAO, used for crop protection, and MEKO, used as a legacy anti-skinning agent for paints.
Revenue and profit of these products are immaterial on an enterprise-wide basis, and the market outlook was challenged, particularly given investments required for future environmental compliance and other regulatory pressure. This exit will enable us to leverage a capacity release of caprolactam and maintain a focus on our higher value EZ-Blox product, which is a drop-in replacement for MEKO and alkylate paints. We expect a net neutral impact to 2024 earnings as a result of this exit. Simplification enables us to focus our resources in the most profitable areas of our business. A great example of this is in our plant nutrients business. Our Plant Nutrients portfolio is a market leader and continues to support overall company performance and results. With sulfur demand remaining robust as a key nutrient supporting crop yields, we are committed to growing in this space through our multiyear SUSTAIN program.
We anticipate reaching a first milestone of 68%-69% granular ammonium sulfate conversion level by 2024 year-end. Now let's turn to slide 10 to wrap up before moving to Q&A. As we look forward, we are operating in a challenging macro environment, particularly as it relates to our Nylon Solutions business. Global PMIs remain in contraction, building and construction indicators remain subdued, higher interest rates have impacted a number of consumer, consumer-oriented end markets, and geopolitical risks have heightened uncertainty around the world. Now more than ever, the strength of our business model and our position as a diversified chemistry company will serve us well as we navigate the current set of dynamics. We've been here before and have proven that we can successfully deliver for our key stakeholders, including customers and shareholders.
While we expect nylon industry margins to remain at prior trough levels through year-end, we do expect more favorable fundamentals for Plant Nutrients and North American Acetone to continue. CapEx for the full year 2023 is tracking to approximately $115 million, which reflects increased spend due to critical infrastructure, other maintenance, and growth and cost savings projects. We're committed to driving best possible outcomes in the current set of industry conditions and executing levers in our control, including a rigorous commitment to operational excellence, remaining disciplined on cost, optimizing working capital, and making smart investments to drive higher returns. Now, with that, Adam, let's move to Q&A.
Adam Kressel (VP of Investor Relations and Treasurer)
Great. Thanks, Mike. Alan, can you please open the line for questions?
Operator (participant)
We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on your touch-tone phone. If you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. To withdraw your question, please press star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. Our first question comes from Vincent Anderson of Stifel. Please go ahead.
Vincent Anderson (Institutional Research Director)
Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So on the Oben partnership or alliance, as you call it, just wanted to get into the specifics on that, because it sounds like you exited the partnership, but you're recording a gain. And then what specifically is the plan right now for maintaining your footprint in films, given that, you know, that alliance was entered into to cover the closure of your Pottsville operation?
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah, I'm certainly happy to add some more color here and clarity. So what we are essentially doing here, Vincent, is transitioning the sales and distribution aspects of our alliance to Oben, right? They are years in the film packaging business here. We will maintain our supply of resin to them, but it's really that front end. So if you think about the alliance, we were producing resins, they were producing the films, and then we were bringing back and providing the sales and distribution in North America. So it's really that last piece that we are transitioning. And as a result, you know, this was a potential contemplated exit in our original alliance agreement. And so we've moved forward on that transition, maintaining our partnership with them on resin supply.
That's where our core capabilities are, and still maintaining access into that BOPP market. If you think about packaging for Nylon 6, it's about 10% of demand. Our profile of sales would mirror that sort of rate. And so, you know, again, here, it's really just that end piece of the alliance being transitioned, and fully, you know, over the next two years, we'll fully transition out.
Vincent Anderson (Institutional Research Director)
Okay. All right. That helps a lot. Thank you.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah.
Vincent Anderson (Institutional Research Director)
Um-
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
I would add, too, I mean-
Vincent Anderson (Institutional Research Director)
Yep.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
We're working with them on continuing to pull through PCIR and PIR opportunities as well, co-branding. So, you know, really just think about how the mechanics of the alliance were working, versus an exit from a focus on an important end market for us.
Vincent Anderson (Institutional Research Director)
Okay. Yeah, and that actually kind of bleeds into my next question. So it's helpful. So, you know, as I think about this down cycle in nylon and capro, how it might look relative to past cycles, I was hoping you could comment specifically on that new recycled content product with regards to whether you think that can be commercialized in a way that helps keep your mix of nylon versus, you know, probably your lowest margin product being flake capro exports, keeping that mix meaningfully higher than in past downturns.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah, certainly, we pull all levers we can through the downturn. You know, I would note, you know, hopefully, you know, we're thinking about that 18-20 month duration, sort of when we cross over the mid-cycle range. We're about 12 months into that time period. You know, PCIR and things like PCIR and PIR, you know, certainly is getting a good push. It has the opportunity, with 10% of our total resin capacity to be available to be sold as certified in that capacity. We are putting effort behind the launch. Customers are intrigued by it, but in this realm here, you know, we're seeing signs that are positive for packaging customers as well.
It is a space in general where folks are testing and understanding the value proposition through to the value chain, but it is getting a fair amount of focus, as you might expect from us.
Vincent Anderson (Institutional Research Director)
... Okay, so progress, but maybe next cycle to see a full benefit?
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
I think, yes. I mean, I think we are pushing it, and again, we have that 10% opportunity. We have interest from customers. It's really now moving forward to get adoption, and, you know, being able to, to sell that value proposition all the way through. And, we can see up to 20% premium, though not across, you know, all end markets just yet, but, we're, we're moving in the right direction here.
Vincent Anderson (Institutional Research Director)
Okay, excellent. And then just last one. I wanted to ask about the low-margin oximes. If I'm remembering the correct collection of pipes and valves at Hopewell, I think you said you were pretty footprint limited with regards to your ability to further expand, you know, your EZ-Blox capacity beyond your current plans. So I'm curious if this exit maybe frees up some space longer term to consider additional capacity of EZ-Blox.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah, we are not capacity constrained at this time on EZ-Blox, and so have continued runway to allow that particular product to continue to progress. So again, these others in the portfolio, you know, obviously EZ-Blox is a drop-in replacement for MEKO, which had a challenged outlook, as did AAO. So it was the right time, and intersection of sort of market considerations and decision points to go ahead and just pull the trigger on that exit for us.
Vincent Anderson (Institutional Research Director)
Okay. All right. Well, that's all for me. Thank you.
Charles Neivert (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Thanks, Vincent.
Operator (participant)
The next question comes from David Silver of CL King. Please go ahead.
David Silver (Managing Director and Industrials Senior Analyst)
Yeah. Hi, thank you. Good morning.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Good morning.
David Silver (Managing Director and Industrials Senior Analyst)
Yeah, a couple of, I guess, bigger picture questions, but first of all, thank you for providing the additional detail and perspective on the nylon and caprolactam fundamentals. I appreciate that. If I was picking up on kind of that continued decline in that caprolactam/benzene spread, you know, I'm just looking at that, I'm thinking... Well, first I should ask you, but relative to where you were, say, at the beginning of the year till now, my assumption is that AdvanSix's advantage over the typical, you know, benchmark producer globally has probably widened over that nine-month period. So in absolute terms, the spreads have narrowed, but maybe the gap between yourselves and the average global producer has probably widened, you know, just given your greater exposure to fertilizer and probably a somewhat more favorable raw material positioning.
I'll just ask that, but is that true, and are we seeing any reaction yet beyond, let's say, you know, the one competitor that reduced some capacity in Europe earlier this year? I mean, have we reached kind of the, the pain point where, you know, further increments are being taken offline or things like- or other, other visible signs of, I don't want to- distress or, you know, pain points being reached? Thank you.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah, maybe just to provide some broad context, right, for operating rates and see if we can unpack, you know, some of the dynamics. You know, certainly, as you point out, North American, you know, producers are in a better position. You know, and certainly we maintain our leading cost position in caprolactam. But if you think about global operating rates, you've got about 84%, let's say, you know, estimated rate here in Americas. Europe is struggling closer to about 40%. China's operating around 70%, and sort of rest of Asia, you know, 55-60-ish%.
You know, we have through these downturns, as you've indicated, seen subscale capacity and smaller plants that were on the right-hand side of the cost curve, you know, have certainly, you know, folded. We've seen that with, you know, the Mexican, you know, operations. Certainly, the Japanese plants have been under pressure. And so, but if you think about sort of where the world is challenged, Europe certainly is feeling quite a bit of that impact, as well. So, you know, I think that, you know, since the start of the year, as you say, you know, there has been a, you know, a flattening, you know, a bringing down of the value chain.
But we also have the dynamics where, you know, in these cycles and in these downturns, the trade flows, you know, are shifting significantly. We see the exports from China. We typically lose the disciplined approach to marginal producer economics, so that puts pressure. And you can see in the one chart, too, where, you know, the global composite holds out for a bit, but as those impacts come into play, the trade flows shift, the lower priced import offerings come into play, those premiums do get compressed, and that's happened, you know, throughout this year, as a result. So hopefully, that gives a little bit more context to how the dynamic is unfolding.
David Silver (Managing Director and Industrials Senior Analyst)
Okay. Thank you for that. I appreciate it. I'd like to maybe just shift over to the fertilizer side of things. I did take note of the earnings release for one of your major competitors in nitrogen fertilizer here, and I would say that, you know, the tone of their release was, you know, pretty upbeat, all things considered. And in particular, they talked about a very busy order book, you know, for this period of the year. So I was just wondering, you know, if you could maybe comment on how you see the order book for your next quarter, you know, post-harvest and maybe early spring, if that's relevant. But how is your order book developing on the ammonium sulfate side here?
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah, it's, you know, I mean, I can reiterate that, you know, our current order book is robust. It would be consistent with historical levels. You know, certainly, you know, we think about where we've been over the last couple of quarters. You know, we're getting this reset off of, you know, very high nutrient values, kind of resetting, as we had said, as we come through. You know, the supply chain was in a good spot post the spring season. You know, we've progressed through that reset into fall fill based on the new sort of environmental context. And so we are happy with our order position and I think have continued to set a good order rate through fall.
We believe that, as we head into spring, you know, things will continue to be robust. And, you know, I would note as, in our public postings, that we have continued to take price up several times from our fill level. So, you know, we're progressing through, you know, the new season as expected.
David Silver (Managing Director and Industrials Senior Analyst)
Okay, very good. Then maybe one last one, more broadly on your chemical intermediates portfolio. So I'd like to maybe talk about, you know, not, not the acetone, but, but maybe the balance of the products there, and in particular, maybe the products you've taken control of via U.S., the U.S. Amines acquisition. Sorry. But, you know, broadly speaking, I mean, the specialty nature of a lot of products, you know, tend to manifest themselves most clearly in kind of softer economic environments. In other words, it's easier to maintain prices and margins when fundamentals are reasonably, you know, balanced to tight.
You know, given the softer industrial environment for a prolonged period right now, I mean, how would you say the overall, you know, demand and I would just say margin resilience of, you know, your broader chemical intermediates portfolio, you know, is right now? I mean, how, you know, how sturdy or how resilient would you say the broader chemical intermediates portfolio, including U.S. Amines, has been? Thank you.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Sure. And if we think about the areas of intermediates, certainly in the higher value applications and higher value end products, you know, we think of things like Nadone going into, you know, electronics and specialty solvents. And as you mentioned, we think of, you know, the U.S. Amines portfolio, like you also called out. And certainly, you know, I would say there, the dynamic is just as you would say, the pricing and the margins are resilient and do hold up because the value proposition of the chemistries are as such as that. What we are seeing is more of the demand decline impact here. And so, you know, we think about the ag chemical space for U.S. Amines, selling MIPA through into that chain.
You know, volumes are down about 30% from the five-year, you know, average cycle. So that does have, you know, an impact. It's mostly the destocking, you know, associated with last year's season that continues to play forward. Whereas in, you know, a product like Nadone, that's just more general just sort of consumer demand considerations and cycles there. So, you know, I think you're right here, where our overall results, you see a large pricing and not so much of a volume consideration on our large scale product lines. These more specialty ones, the pricing holds, the margin holds, and we're seeing more of that demand impact.
David Silver (Managing Director and Industrials Senior Analyst)
Okay, great. Thank you. I'm gonna get back in the queue. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thanks, Steve. Our final question comes from Charles Neivert of Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.
Charles Neivert (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Morning, guys. Just a quick question on when I look at the split of earnings among the different segments that you guys report, it sounds clearly like the biggest impact has come in the nylon caprol area, and the other two have generally held up. So if we're looking at round numbers, the ex, the turnaround, so we're looking about round numbers, $35 million of EBITDA ex turnaround.
Operator (participant)
Yep.
Charles Neivert (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
How do you look at the split now versus the way the split was maybe in a substantially better time? Meaning, if I've got 35 round numbers divided equally among the four major segments you report, round numbers, it's eight per, nine per. I mean, how does it look now, and how does it look in a more, for lack of a better term, normal situation? I mean, where the profitability is coming from?
Michael Preston (SVP and CFO)
... Yeah, so I would, I think it's, you know, the themes are pretty consistent, right? And we shared, Charlie, on the call here, the year-over-year bridge, and, you know, the consideration around price raws for nylon being the largest year-over-year, you know, headwind from a consideration perspective. Whereas when you look at price raws for both ammonium sulfate and chemical intermediates, ammonium sulfate, net of natural gas and sulfur actually being positive year-over-year, and then intermediates being relatively flat. So it's really a nylon story. So relative to, I would say, a more normalized, you know, performance, you know, nylon's, you know, mix in this, because of the headwinds, would be a bit lower, right, relative to the other product lines.
I would say, you know, acetone has been performing well, margins there being probably a greater mix of the total. Ammonium sulfate, despite the reset that we've seen here from the first half into the second half and, you know, a bigger seasonal impact on a relative basis, still performing well and providing, you know, good returns and good income performance for the business.
Charles Neivert (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got it. Then when I look at Ammonium Sulfate now, sales going forward into next year, those are largely gonna be U.S.-based sales as opposed to LATAM, which is sort of the off-season sales. So we've now sort of shifted over to predominantly U.S.?
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah, certainly-
Charles Neivert (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Therefore, more granular in the mix.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah. I mean, certainly when you think about the first half sales, right, it does have, you know, that geographical consideration of more sales in, into North America, because that's the primary season, and as you say, the granular piece, which is, you know, an important, view as we continue to, to grow our granular conversion from, you know, 65%, you know, upwards to, another, you know, 3%-5% targets here for the year.
Charles Neivert (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got it. Now, in terms of the sales, there's a premium, you know, granular over the, over standard grade, and you're beginning to sell, I guess, a little bit more granular into the, the non-U.S. markets. Is that getting the same sort of premium that you would typically... I mean, the price points itself may be lower, but the premium over, over standard grade, is that still in, in there, even on the, the sales that are non-U.S.?
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Correct. That's important for us to think about, but most of our incremental sales for the expanded granular conversion programs is for targeting growth in the U.S. Sulfur-
Charles Neivert (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Nutrients continue to grow here. So again, that, that is primary to help the U.S. farmer, to help U.S. productivity. And so we anticipate that the primary market will be here.
Charles Neivert (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay. And then two more quick things. Can you give me some indication about, you talked about operating rates globally. Are you guys in line with the U.S. operating rate? Are you a little bit better than, and this is in the, the caprolactam area, a little bit better than the operating rates in the U.S., a little bit worse? You know, where, where do you guys stand?
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah, on caprolactam rates, we continue to, you know, progress, you know, at or slightly above, depending on, you know, how we're running. But that's always been our, you know, our opportunity set, Charles, as you know, that, you know, we, we have that opportunity set given the global cost position. You know, it can fluctuate, like I said, with the, the plant turnarounds and, you know, other considerations. But that's always our target, and we're holding in there.
Charles Neivert (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Got it. And last question is, on the nylon side, with all the exports coming out of China that you're seeing, are they sort of direct competition for the nylon versions that you produce, or they tend to be at the commodity end, but they're dragging prices down across the board and obviously taking some volume? I mean, how are they competing? Clearly, I don't think they can do the same sort of level of higher end grades that typical North American producers get. So how is it, how do you see their product in the marketplace? Is it, like I said, just commodity grade that's a price drag, or are they taking volume from others, or what's going on there?
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
So, you know, we do see the export from China and, you know, broader Asia, right, as the trade flows have shifted here. I would say that their offerings are primarily looking to compete strongly in engineered plastics, right? So these are, you know, sort of base compounding resin, you know, offerings. And so, you know, if you think about, just with the trade flows, just with where they're willing to offer, you know, again, and, and losing, you know, a bit of the discipline to the marginal producer, you know, cost dynamic in a, you know, in a stronger market, that just kind of pulls pricing down across the board, creates that, pressure to, to regional premiums. And that's mostly, you know, the dynamic, that we have.
You know, in packaging and fiber and filaments, we do have an edge in, in quality, and that helps a bit, but certainly just overall pressure, on the pricing side just exists with this dynamic.
Charles Neivert (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Great. Thanks very much.
Michael Preston (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, Charles.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Once again, we have David Silver from CL King. Please go ahead.
David Silver (Managing Director and Industrials Senior Analyst)
Okay, thank you. Just, just one last one, and this would be, I guess I'm just kind of taking a temperature on, M&A opportunities. So, you know, in this release, you talked a lot a bit, a lot, a fair amount about portfolio simplification in the current, you know, weaker environment. And my sense is that, you know, many other companies are trying to do, you know, some of the same things. And, you know, in that environment, I mean, maybe a business that, you know, doesn't fit in a larger organization, might, might be a very tight fit with what, you know, you're doing in specialty intermediates or, or other areas. You know, you've maintained a pretty healthy balance sheet, as well during this period.
So, you know, how do you view the opportunity set for maybe, you know, an opportunity to bolt on some products or product lines that might help you in terms of breadth or geographic positioning or maybe, you know, production assets? You know, how are you thinking, are you gonna be maybe continuing to fine-tune your own portfolio, or is there the opportunity to maybe, you know, see what might be available?
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah, certainly. You know, I might, you know, start with contextually, right? You know, our capital allocation approach and priorities, you know, remain, you know, consistent, right? And we're committed to leveraging and using the disciplined approach to allocations to deliver strong and sustainable TSR over the long term. So, you know, as noted in our actions, certainly we wanna make sure that, you know, first, we are making smart decisions on our portfolio, and there are opportunities, you know, to continue to reflect and refresh, you know, those views. You know, our base CapEx is important, you know, that run and maintain HS and capital to sustain the business.
You know, our growth and cost savings CapEx, you know, investing in ourselves is always a great place, and you see that in our commitment to the SUSTAIN program and plant nutrients. You know, overall, given its profile, will continue to be an area where we look to, you know, accelerate our profitable growth opportunities. We have a return of cash to shareholders. As you say, accretive M&A has always been part of our framework. You know, certainly, it is an area where we continue to, you know, evaluate opportunities. You know, this is an interesting time, you know, relative to that, but I think certainly we are not the only company, right, who reflects on their long-term view, what's right in the fit of the portfolio and where the opportunities sit. You know, we have a framework.
We continue to look at, you know, opportunities again for value chain integration, you know, where we can drive profitable growth and molecule and product upgrades. Again, broader, expansions with bolt-ons, things that will leverage our core strengths and expertise, to strengthen our, our core geographic positions. And so, you know, these are things, but certainly making sure things are free cash flow accretive, and, fitting our financial profile of the future is, is important as well.
So we continue to look, but certainly, you know, navigating and pulling through and investing in ourselves, you know, is core through this down cycle and ensuring that as you know, we come out of it, you know, that we have continued to build a stronger business that will perform with higher through-cycle profitability and a larger base to grow from.
David Silver (Managing Director and Industrials Senior Analyst)
Thanks very much. I appreciate the perspective.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Yeah.
Michael Preston (SVP and CFO)
Thanks, Dave.
Operator (participant)
This concludes our question and answer session. I would like now to turn the conference back over to Erin Kane for any closing remarks.
Erin Kane (President and CEO)
Thank you all again for your time and interest this morning. While there are puts and takes across our end markets and broader macro uncertainty, we are focusing on executing what is in our control. We have a demonstrated playbook and track record, as well as a healthy balance sheet, to navigate these dynamics, and we'll continue to position our business for long-term sustainable performance. With that, we look forward to speaking with you again next quarter. Stay safe and be well.
Operator (participant)
The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today's presentation. You may now disconnect.