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Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)·Q2 2026 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q2 net sales were $1.600B (+3.3% YoY) with a positive comp of +0.2%; GAAP diluted EPS was $1.85 and adjusted diluted EPS was $1.94 .
  • Versus Wall Street consensus, revenue was slightly below ($1.600B vs $1.606B*) and adjusted EPS missed ($1.94 vs $2.13*); EBITDA also trailed ($212.5M vs $227.0M*) . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Guidance narrowed: high end maintained; low end of FY2025 sales/comp raised from -4.0% to -3.0% (range now -3.0% to +1.0%); FY tax rate expected at ~23.5% .
  • eCommerce sales accelerated +17.7% YoY; new stores comping positive; three new stores opened in Florida, Virginia, and West Virginia; total store count 306 .
  • Management highlighted tariff mitigation actions and momentum building into back half; focus on value leadership and market share gains .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • “Sales inflect to a positive comp… Customers are gravitating to our diversified assortment… picking up market share” — CEO Steve Lawrence .
  • eCommerce growth +17.7% YoY in Q2 with improved conversion and AOV; RFID and handhelds fully rolled out to all stores to “save-the-sale” and improve in-stocks .
  • New stores comping positive mid-single digits; 3 openings in Q2; total 306 locations, with 20–25 planned openings for FY2025 .

What Went Wrong

  • YoY profitability down: operating margin 10.8% vs 12.3% last year; GAAP EPS down 5.1% YoY to $1.85; SG&A deleveraged to 25.3% (+150 bps), driven by growth investments .
  • Gross margin essentially flat at 36.0% with headwinds from shrink and eCommerce shipping costs offsetting merch margin expansion .
  • Ammunition remained weak; unit demand pressure necessitated bulk promos to support AURs; broader lower-income consumer cohort still under pressure .

Financial Results

Core P&L vs Prior Periods and Estimates

MetricQ4 2025 (oldest)Q1 2026Q2 2026 (newest)
Net Sales ($USD Billions)$1.677 $1.351 $1.600
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)$1.89 $0.68 $1.85
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)$1.96 $0.76 $1.94
Gross Margin (%)32.2% 34.0% 36.0%
Operating Income ($USD Millions)$154.7 $69.3 $172.4
Operating Margin (%)9.2% 5.1% 10.8%
Net Income ($USD Millions)$133.6 $46.1 $125.4
Comparable Sales (%)(3.0)% (3.7)% +0.2%
SG&A (% of Sales)23.0% 28.8% 25.3%

Consensus vs Actual (Quarterly)

MetricQ1 2026 ConsensusQ1 2026 ActualQ2 2026 ConsensusQ2 2026 Actual
Revenue ($USD Billions)$1.372*$1.351 $1.606*$1.600
Primary EPS ($)$0.891*$0.76 (Adjusted) $2.135*$1.94 (Adjusted)
EBITDA ($USD Millions)$120.7*$109.8 (Adj. EBITDA) $227.0*$212.5 (Adj. EBITDA)

Values retrieved from S&P Global. Actual EPS references adjusted diluted EPS; EBITDA actual references adjusted EBITDA.

KPIs and Balance Sheet

KPIQ2 2026
eCommerce Sales Growth (%)+17.7%
New Stores Opened3 (FL, VA, WV)
Store Count306 across 21 states
Inventory per Store (Units/Dollars)+4.5% units, +8.2% dollars
Cash and Cash Equivalents ($USD Millions)$300.9
Long-term Debt, net ($USD Millions)$481.7
Net Cash from Operating Activities (Q2, $USD Millions)$78.6
Adjusted Free Cash Flow (Q2, $USD Millions)$21.7

Division Performance (Q2 2026)

DivisionQ2 2026 YoY Comp
Footwear+3.7%
Apparel+3.8%
Outdoor+2.5%
Sports & RecreationUp low single digits (qualitative)

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious Guidance (Q1 Update)Current Guidance (Q2 Update)Change
Net Sales ($USD Billions)FY 2025 (ending Jan 31, 2026)Low: $5.970; High: $6.265 Low: $6.000; High: $6.265 Low end raised
Comparable Sales (%)FY 2025(4.0)% to +1.0% (3.0)% to +1.0% Low end raised
Gross Margin Rate (%)FY 202534.0% to 34.5% 34.0% to 34.5% Maintained
GAAP Net Income ($USD Millions)FY 2025$350 to $410 $360 to $410 Low end raised
Adjusted Net Income ($USD Millions)FY 2025$375 to $435 $380 to $430 Low end raised, high end slightly lowered
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)FY 2025$5.10 to $5.90 $5.30 to $6.00 Low end raised
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)FY 2025$5.45 to $6.25 $5.60 to $6.30 Low end raised
Diluted Weighted Avg Shares (mm)FY 2025~69 ~68 Lower share count
Capital Expenditures ($USD Millions)FY 2025$180 to $220 $180 to $220 Maintained
Adjusted Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)FY 2025$250 to $320 $250 to $320 Maintained
Tax Rate (%)FY 2025—~23.5% Provided in Q2

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicQ4 2025 (older)Q1 2026Q2 2026 (current)Trend
AI/Technology/RFIDPlan to roll out RFID and handheld POS chainwide; expected 20–25% inventory accuracy improvement RFID rollout completed chainwide by end of May; save-the-sale uplift +900% per store Weekly RFID counts for major brands; improved in-stocks; continued save-the-sale Execution progressing; measurable in-stock and conversion gains
Supply Chain/DCGeorgia DC WMS integration challenges in 2024; expected tailwind in 2025 DC issues largely resolved; better in-stocks; inventory pull-forward at pre-tariff DC improvement contributing; continued shipping cost headwinds on eComm Stabilizing; costs normalizing
Tariffs/MacroDiversify sourcing; value positioning; maintain gross margin via promo optimization Modeled scenarios; inventory pull-forward; guidance widened for tariff outcomes Mostly offset via vendor/factory cost-sharing, sourcing shifts, pricing optimization Mitigation actions active; consumer still choppy
Product Performance (Jordan/Nike)Announced Jordan launch; Nike expansion planned Jordan launched late April; initial outperformance; Nike expansion driving comps Jordan/Nike double-digit growth; broader assortment and door count expansion Tailwind strengthening
Customer CohortsHigher-income trade-down gained in Q4; loyalty building Higher-income traffic up; mid-income inflected positive in April Upper-income double-digit traffic gains; lower-income still pressured Mix shifting upmarket
Regional/EventsWeather impacted shoulder periods; compressed holiday aided December Choppy patterns; episodic shopping around calendar events Back-to-school positive; softer post-event valleys persist Episodic shopping continues
Merch Mix/MarginsSoftlines mix expected to lift gross margin Gross margin +60 bps YoY; merch margin +40 bps; shrink improvement Gross margin flat; merch margin +40 bps; shrink/eComm costs headwinds Mix tailwind vs operational headwinds

Management Commentary

  • “We were pleased to see sales inflect to a positive comp… momentum is building in the business” — Steve Lawrence, CEO .
  • “eCommerce posted ~18% increase in Q2… conversion and average order value improved” — Steve Lawrence .
  • “Gross margin came in at 36%, down two basis points… merchandising margin expansion of 40 basis points offset by shrink and higher e-comm shipping costs” — Carl Ford, CFO .
  • “We believe we have mostly offset the impact of tariffs for fiscal 2025” — Company press release .
  • “Based on first-half results… narrowing low end of sales guidance from -4.0% to -3.0%” — CFO .

Q&A Highlights

  • Consumer cohorts: upper-income traffic up double digits; mid-income stable; lower-income pressured; episodic shopping between events (Memorial Day, Father’s Day, BTS) persists .
  • Gross margin cadence: Q2 merch margin +40 bps; shrink ~20 bps headwind; eComm shipping ~10 bps headwind; back-half gross margin expected 34–34.5% amid mix improvements and mitigation .
  • Pricing/AUR: AUR up low-to-mid single digits in Q2; expected to creep higher in back half as tariffs filter through; focus on protecting key traffic-driving price points, taking increases in ancillary items .
  • Brand access: Jordan/Nike expansion yielding premium product access broadly across chain (e.g., Vomero, P6000, Phoenix fleece); assortment expansion across footwear, cleats, backpacks .
  • Inventory strategy: pull-forward of evergreen domestic inventory at pre-tariff costs; per-store inventory dollars up 8.2% and units +4.5% YoY; normalization expected through year .

Estimates Context

  • Q2: Revenue $1.600B vs consensus $1.606B* (slight miss); adjusted EPS $1.94 vs $2.13* (miss); adjusted EBITDA $212.5M vs $227.0M* (miss) .
  • Q1: Revenue $1.351B vs $1.372B*; adjusted EPS $0.76 vs $0.891*; adjusted EBITDA $109.8M vs $120.7M* .
  • Number of estimates: Q2 EPS 16; revenue 17 (context for reliability)*. Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Near-term: Mixed print with slight revenue/EBITDA misses and an EPS miss vs consensus*, but improving comps and eCommerce momentum should support back-half narrative . Values retrieved from S&P Global.
  • Guidance: Low-end raised across sales, comps, EPS, and net income; high-end maintained — signaling rising confidence despite macro/tariff uncertainty .
  • Execution: Jordan/Nike expansion and RFID/handheld rollouts are tangible drivers of traffic, conversion, and merch margin; expect continued tailwinds into holiday .
  • Margin watch: Gross margin flat this quarter with merch margin expansion offset by shrink/eComm costs; back-half margin depends on promo discipline, softlines mix, and tariff pass-through .
  • Consumer mix: Higher-income trade-down accelerating; focus on value leadership and private brands to capture share while shielding key price points .
  • Capital allocation: Dividend declared ($0.13/share) and buyback capacity remains; Q2 capital prioritized toward inventory positioning rather than repurchases .
  • Store growth: 20–25 FY openings; vintage stores comping mid-single digits — comp waterfall supports medium-term growth algorithm .

Values retrieved from S&P Global for consensus metrics.