Executive Summary

As of Nov 20, 2025, Academy Sports & Outdoors has not reported Q4 FY2025 results; there is no 8‑K 2.02 or earnings call transcript available yet on the company’s IR site or our document corpus. We therefore anchor to S&P Global consensus for Q4 FY2025 and to the most recent reported quarter (Q2 FY2025) for context .
Street consensus for Q4 FY2025 is EPS $1.82 on $1.675B revenue (19 and 18 estimates, respectively). The year-ago quarter delivered EPS $1.96 and $1.68B revenue, implying a modest YoY step-down vs last year’s actuals if consensus holds* (S&P Global).
Management narrowed FY2025 guidance at Q2: sales growth range to -3.0% to +1.0% (from -4.0% to +1.0%), gross margin 34.0–34.5%, tax rate ~23.5%, and adjusted EPS $5.60–$6.30 .
Q4 merchandising and store catalysts: five new stores opened in Q4 (24 in FY2025), holiday promotions/assortment push (Nike/Jordan, Brooks, Crocs), and value positioning into Black Friday/Cyber Week .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

Positive comp inflection in Q2 (+0.2%) with eCommerce +17.7% and merchandise margin +40 bps; share gains called out across apparel, footwear, sporting goods, fishing, outdoor cooking .
New store performance improved: 2022–2023 vintages comped mid-single digits in Q2; RFID rollout, handhelds (“save the sale”), and loyalty (12M+ customers) underpin better in-stocks, conversion, and repeat engagement .
Quote: “We believe that we have the strategy in place which should mostly offset the impacts of tariffs… while still being able to serve customers… with a strong value proposition” — Steve Lawrence, CEO .

What Went Wrong

SG&A deleveraged 150 bps in Q2, driven by growth investments (new stores ~130 bps; tech ~20 bps; depreciation ~10 bps). Shrink and eComm shipping modestly pressured gross margin despite merch margin expansion .
Inventory per store elevated (+4.6% units, +8.2% dollars) due to tariff pull-forward; management notes it’s evergreen goods and expects normalization through the year .
Lower-income cohort traffic still eroding (albeit moderating); ammo remains one of the more challenged categories; margin uplift dependent on mix and continued merchandise margin gains .

Financial Results

Latest available actuals (Q2 FY2025) and S&P Global consensus/actuals for quarter comparisons. Q4 FY2025 has not reported.

Quarterly revenue and EPS: prior year, prior quarter, current consensus

Metric	Q4 FY2024 (ended Feb 1, 2025)	Q3 FY2025 (reported Dec 10, 2024)	Q4 FY2025 Consensus
Revenue ($)	$1,676.9M*	$1,343.3M*	$1,675.3M*
Diluted EPS ($)	$1.96*	$0.98*	$1.82*

Values marked with * retrieved from S&P Global.

Reference: company reported Q4 FY2024 net sales of ~$1.68B and adjusted EPS $1.96 in March 2025 press release and call .

Recent margins (last reported quarters)

Metric	Q1 FY2025 (13 weeks ended May 3, 2025)	Q2 FY2025 (13 weeks ended Aug 2, 2025)
Revenues ($)	$1,351.4M	$1,599.8M
Gross Margin (%)	34.0%	36.0%
Net Income ($)	$46.1M	$125.4M
Net Income Margin (%)	3.41%	7.8%
Diluted EPS ($)	$0.68	$1.85

Note: Q2 table from the press release’s GAAP statements; some columns may not add due to rounding .

KPIs (latest reported quarter)

KPI	Q2 FY2025	Commentary
Comparable Sales	+0.2%	First positive quarterly comp since 2021 .
eCommerce Sales	+17.7%	+120 bps penetration; improved conversion and AOV .
Category Comps	Footwear +3.7%, Apparel +3.8%, Outdoor +2.5%	Tight range across businesses (±120 bps) .
Merchandise Margin	+40 bps YoY	Offset by shrink (~20 bps) and eComm shipping (~10 bps) .

Guidance Changes

FY2025 outlook narrowed/updated at Q2.

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance (Q1 Update)	Current Guidance (Q2 Update)	Change
Net Sales ($M)	FY2025	$5,970 – $6,265	$6,000 – $6,265	Raised low end
Comparable Sales (%)	FY2025	-4.0% to +1.0%	-3.0% to +1.0%	Raised low end
Gross Margin Rate (%)	FY2025	34.0 – 34.5	34.0 – 34.5	Maintained
GAAP Net Income ($M)	FY2025	$350 – $410	$360 – $410	Raised low end
Adjusted Net Income ($M)	FY2025	$375 – $435	$380 – $430	Low end up; high end trimmed
GAAP Diluted EPS ($)	FY2025	$5.10 – $5.90	$5.30 – $6.00	Raised low end
Adjusted Diluted EPS ($)	FY2025	$5.45 – $6.25	$5.60 – $6.30	Raised low end
Tax Rate (%)	FY2025	n/a	~23.5	Provided
Capex ($M)	FY2025	$180 – $220	$180 – $220	Maintained
Adjusted FCF ($M)	FY2025	$250 – $320	$250 – $320	Maintained

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Previous Mentions (Q4 FY2024)	Q1 FY2025	Q2 FY2025 (latest reported)	Trend
Gross margin drivers	Higher import freight/DC costs; merch margin modestly up; largest Black Friday event; GM 32.2% (-110 bps YoY)	Management discussed investments and margin pressure in Q1 (IR site references)	Merch margin +40 bps; shrink (-20 bps), eComm ship (-10 bps) headwinds; GM ~36.0%	Improving underlying merch margin; operational headwinds moderating
Tariffs & pricing	Pulled forward freight to mitigate risk	Continued mitigation work (management)	Strategy to “mostly offset” tariffs via sourcing shifts, vendor sharing, pricing tools; expect AUR to move higher in 2H	Active mitigation; controlled pricing with value focus
Customer cohorts	Holiday strength; value/private brands resonating	Lower-income softness persisting (management)	Upper-income traffic double‑digit growth; lower-income declines moderating	Mix shifting upmarket
Omnichannel	Holiday promotion cadence; strong event-driven traffic	Site/product improvements ongoing	eComm +17.7%; better conversion/AOV; BOPIS/ship-from-store enablement	Accelerating
Store growth	302 stores; plan to expand	Ongoing openings	306 stores; three openings in Q2; plan 20–25 FY2025; five openings in Q4 (24 FY2025)	Executing to plan
Brand access	Gifting/private label momentum	Jordan/Nike launch planning	Jordan scaled; Nike premium access; double-digit growth; more SKUs/doors	Positive brand momentum

Management Commentary

Strategic positioning/value: “Customers are gravitating to our diversified assortment and our value proposition is resonating with them… we are confident in our strategy” .
Tariff mitigation: “We have the strategy in place which should mostly offset the impacts of tariffs… partnering with factories… diversifying sourcing… pricing optimization” .
Guidance tone: “We are narrowing the low end of our sales guidance from -4.0% to -3.0%… expect the tax rate for the year to be 23.5%” .
Omnichannel and technology: RFID and handhelds improving in-stocks by 400–500 bps; eCommerce conversion and AOV improved .

Q&A Highlights

Comps cadence and seasonality: Q2 saw sequential improvement; management expects back-half to benefit from easier lapping and holiday episodic strength .
SG&A deleverage: Expect ~100 bps deleverage for FY2025 at midpoint; new stores/tech investments drive most deleverage; moderation expected through the year .
Gross margin puts/takes: Merchandise margin tailwind; shrink roughly +5 bps YoY headwind YTD; eComm shipping a ~10 bps headwind tied to growth .
Pricing/AUR and demand: AUR up low-to-mid single digits in Q2; expect AUR to move higher in 2H as tariffs flow through; mixed elasticity by category .
New stores productivity: Yr1 sales $12–16M; positive EBITDA but deleveraging; mid-single-digit comps as stores mature; targeted 20%+ ROIC .

Estimates Context

Q4 FY2025 consensus (S&P Global): EPS $1.82 (19 est.), Revenue $1.675B (18 est.). Year-ago (Q4 FY2024) actuals were EPS $1.96 and Revenue $1.677B per S&P Global; EBITDA consensus $203.9M vs actual $178.6M* (S&P Global).
Implication: Street expects a modest YoY step-down on EPS and essentially flat revenue against last year’s holiday quarter; magnitude of gross margin recapture vs. tariff/shrink/eComm cost pressures will likely drive estimate revisions* (S&P Global).

Key Takeaways for Investors

Setup into Q4 FY2025: Value positioning, expanded premium brand access (Nike/Jordan), and omnichannel improvements provide offensive levers for holiday sell-through amid tariff-related price actions .
Watch merch margin vs. shrink/eComm cost: Q2 showed underlying margin strength; sustaining that into peak season will be critical for EPS vs. consensus .
Store growth comp lift: New stores are entering comp and scaling, supporting back-half comps and FY2026 base; five additional Q4 openings enhance local holiday presence .
Tariff mitigation/elasticity: Execution on vendor sharing, sourcing shifts, and pricing science is key to defending margin without impairing demand in sensitive categories .
Mix and cohort dynamics: Higher-income cohort traffic strength offsets lower-income pressure; holiday promotional cadence likely to concentrate demand windows .
Guidance guardrails: FY2025 sales narrowed to -3% to +1%; gross margin 34.0–34.5%; tax ~23.5%. Any Q4 upside likely flows through via gross margin and SG&A leverage .
Near-term catalyst: Q3 FY2025 results (December) and intra-quarter holiday updates could drive estimate revisions and stock reaction; company is running aggressive holiday marketing and value messaging .

Appendix: Additional Q4 2025 Period Press Releases

Five new stores opened in Q4 (Russellville, AR; Seguin, TX; Fort Wayne, IN; El Paso, TX; New Braunfels, TX), bringing FY2025 openings to 24 .
Holiday gifting/promotions and value/events calendar for the season (doorbusters, Cyber Week, last-minute deals; extended hours and fulfillment options) .
Category/brand pushes: Croctober (Crocs), Brooks Month (exclusive Hero Collection), reinforcing footwear/apparel momentum .

Notes on document availability and methodology:

No ASO Q4 FY2025 8‑K 2.02 or earnings call transcript found on our platform or ASO IR at time of writing; we searched for filings and transcripts between Mar–Jun 2026 (typical timing for Q4 FY2025) with no results .
We read in full: ASO Q2 FY2025 press release and 8-K; Q2 FY2025 earnings call transcript; Q4 FY2025 period press releases (store openings; holiday guides) .
Consensus and actuals in the tables marked with an asterisk (*) are Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Academy Sports & Outdoors, Inc. (ASO)·Q4 2025 Earnings Summary