Executive Summary

Strong Q4 finish: revenue $123.1M (+46% YoY), gross margin 38% (+300 bps YoY), GAAP diluted EPS $0.14; Adjusted EBITDA $22.7M; Thermal Barrier $70.0M and record Energy Industrial $53.1M .
Capital-light pivot: Aspen halted construction of the Statesboro “Plant 2” and will maximize East Providence output while leveraging external manufacturing; fixed cost reductions of ≥$8M per quarter in place, beginning to flow through from Q2’25 .
Near-term reset: Q1’25 outlook calls for revenue $75–$95M, net loss ($15M) to breakeven, EPS ($0.18) to breakeven, and Adj. EBITDA breakeven to $15M, reflecting GM finished-vehicle inventory normalization; management plans to guide quarter-by-quarter in 2025 .
Catalysts: new PyroThin Thermal Barrier award at Volvo Truck (est. ≥$45M annualized when ramped) and Energy Industrial now unconstrained with EMF; ended FY24 with $220.9M cash and Q4 free cash flow of $20.9M, enabling capital structure optimization and potential capital returns .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well
- Energy Industrial execution: record Q4 segment revenue $53.1M; ~91% of EI revenue supplied by EMF; EI gross margins ~39–40% in Q4/FY, indicating scalable external model .
- Profitability inflection: Q4 Adj. EBITDA $22.7M and GAAP EPS $0.14; FY24 gross margin 40% and Adj. EBITDA $89.9M, up from FY23 losses .
- Strategic wins: Volvo Truck PyroThin award expands CV opportunity set; CEO highlighted exceeding initial 2024 revenue and profitability expectations .
What Went Wrong
- Near-term EV cadence: Q4 Thermal Barrier revenue fell sequentially to $70.0M (from $90.6M in Q3) as OEMs adjusted production post-election and worked down inventory; Q1’25 guide reflects this normalization .
- GM inventory headwind: management estimated ~83k vehicles in GM finished inventory at year-end, pressuring Q1 volume despite a 300k-unit 2025 target; visibility improves after Q1 .
- Plant 2 demobilization: pivot away from Statesboro creates operational change management and restructuring charges ($3M in Q1’25 guidance), albeit with capital and margin benefits longer term .

Financial Results

Metric	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Revenue ($USD Millions)	$84.219	$117.340	$123.088
Diluted EPS ($)	($0.01)	($0.17)	$0.14
Gross Margin (%)	35% (implied by +3 pp to 38% YoY)	42%	38%
Adjusted EBITDA ($USD Millions)	$9.132	$25.351	$22.694
Operating Income ($USD Millions)	$1.383	$17.400	$14.713

Segment revenue (quarterly)

Segment	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Thermal Barrier ($USD Millions)	$90.6	$70.0
Energy Industrial ($USD Millions)	$26.8	$53.1

FY 2024 segment totals

Segment	FY 2024 ($USD Millions)
Thermal Barrier	$306.8
Energy Industrial	$145.9

KPIs and balance sheet

KPI	Q4 2023	Q3 2024	Q4 2024
Cash and Equivalents ($USD Millions)	$139.7	$113.5	$220.9
Free Cash Flow ($USD Millions)	—	—	$20.9
Cash from Operations ($USD Millions)	—	$20.8	$35.7
Capital Expenditure ($USD Millions)	—	—	~$14.8 (Q4)
Diluted Shares (period average)	70.018M	76.261M	82.999M

Notes: Q3’24 GAAP net loss reflects a $27.5M one-time loss on extinguishment of a convertible note; management highlighted Q3 adjusted net income of ~$14.5M ex-charge for comparability .

Guidance Changes

Metric	Period	Previous Guidance	Current Guidance	Change
Revenue ($M)	Q1 2025	n/a	$75–$95	New
Net Income ($M)	Q1 2025	n/a	($15) to breakeven	New
Diluted EPS ($)	Q1 2025	n/a	($0.18) to breakeven	New
Adjusted EBITDA ($M)	Q1 2025	n/a	breakeven to $15	New
CAPEX excl. Statesboro demob ($M)	Q1 2025	n/a	< $7	New
Assumptions: D&A ($M), SBC ($M), Net Interest ($M), Restructuring ($M), Diluted shares (FY)	Q1 2025	n/a	$5.8; $2.7; $3.5; $3.0; 82.0M	New

Management further indicated 2025 CAPEX outside Plant 2 to be managed to < $25M (ex-demobilization) and that annual guidance will be withheld until visibility improves, guiding quarter-by-quarter instead .

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Topic	Q2 2024 (Q-2)	Q3 2024 (Q-1)	Q4 2024 (Current)	Trend
Capacity strategy / Plant 2	DOE ATVM process advancing; continued planning for Plant 2	“Fully capitalized” to fund strategy; progressing Statesboro plan	Stop construction of Plant 2; maximize East Providence + modular EMF capacity; avoid ~$671M debt	Pivot to capital-light, modular capacity
Energy Industrial supply	EMF ramp: $28.3M EI shipped from EMF in Q2	5-week EMF turnaround to expand supply; EI $26.8M on supply constraints	Record EI $53.1M; ~91% via EMF; supply unconstrained in 2025	EMF proven; EI unconstrained
Tariffs / sourcing	—	—	Paid ~30% tariffs on EMF-to-US in 2024; addressing with pricing/sourcing; avoid reactive structural changes	Managed via pricing/sourcing
EV demand / macro	Plan around OEM production track, regulatory backdrop; PyroThin-equipped launches favored	Raised FY24 outlook; confidence in profitability profile	GM inventory normalization in Q1; quarter-by-quarter guide; Europe retimed (Northvolt); China ~50% EV penetration	Near-term reset; LT intact
Segment margins	Gross margin expansion (company 44% in Q2)	Company GM 42%; Adj. EBITDA margin 22%	Company GM 38%; FY TB ~41% and EI ~40%	Sustainable >35% segment GMs
Awards / programs	—	—	Volvo Truck PyroThin design award; estimate ≥$45M annual revenue at maturity	Pipeline expanding
Legal / IP	—	—	Jan-2025 settlement with AMA resolves patent case in Italy	Clean-up of IP overhang

Management Commentary

“We have made the decision to cease construction of Plant 2 in Statesboro, Georgia and will meet long-term thermal barrier demand by maximizing capacity at our East Providence manufacturing facility while utilizing a flexible supply strategy.”
“We are aiming to improve our profitability gearing by reducing the fixed cost base of the company by over $35 million per year… The actions have been taken.”
“Our Energy Industrial revenue in Q4… was $53 million with over $48 million produced by EMF… we paid approximately 30% tariffs for energy industrial products delivered from EMF to the U.S. and generated gross margins exceeding 40%.”
“GM has set 300,000 vehicles as its target for 2025… While our Q1 outlook does not reflect that pace, we are prepared to meet it as General Motors’ sole source thermal barrier supplier.”
“We estimate [GM] had about 83,000 units sitting in inventory at the end of the year… it’s easy to understand why [production schedules] came down in December and January.”

Q&A Highlights

Fixed cost actions: ~$8M per quarter structural reductions (personnel/overhead/external spend); ~$3M restructuring cost in Q1; savings flow from Q2’25 .
Capacity roadmap: Rhode Island could reach ~$600M annualized; EMF increments of $150–$200M per year; customers “don’t care where it’s made” (re-PPAP as needed) .
EV cadence and GM normalization: ~83k units year-end GM inventory; Q1 softness expected; 2025 TB baseline framed vs. 2023 ($110M) and original 2024 plan ($200M) rather than outsized 2024 actual ($306.8M) .
Volvo Truck CPV: ~$300 on a 70–90 kWh prismatic battery; truck packs are much larger (potentially meaningful content uplift) .
European programs: Some retiming (Northvolt); validating alternative cell sources; expect launches late-2025 to 1H’26 .

Estimates Context

S&P Global consensus EPS and revenue for Q4 2024 could not be retrieved due to temporary SPGI rate limits; therefore, beat/miss vs. Street is not shown in this report. Management indicated FY24 performance exceeded its initial revenue and profitability expectations .
Given the Q1’25 reset and quarter-by-quarter guidance, we expect Street models to lower near-term volumes/margins for Thermal Barrier, partially offset by stronger EI contribution; watch for estimate dispersion to narrow after Q1 updates .

Key Takeaways for Investors

Capital-light rerating: Halting Plant 2 and leveraging EMF/East Providence lowers cap intensity and supports 35%+ gross margin targets; structural opex cuts (≥$35M/yr) protect EBITDA through the cycle .
Near-term air pocket: Q1’25 guide reflects GM inventory normalization and softer OEM cadence; expect improved visibility and potential rebound from Q2 as schedules realign to sales .
EI is the backstop: With supply unconstrained and proven EMF margins, EI should provide steadier revenue and margin mix in 2025 amid EV volatility .
Liquidity optionality: $220.9M cash at year-end and positive Q4 FCF ($20.9M) enable capital structure optimization and potential capital returns as backdrop clarifies .
Pipeline extension: Volvo Truck award broadens CV exposure with meaningful CPV and ramps in 2026–2027, adding diversification beyond Ultium .
Tariff risk manageable: 2024 experience with ~30% tariffs still produced >40% EI gross margins; pricing and sourcing steps underway for 2025 .
Modeling watch-outs: Factor Q1 restructuring, lower CAPEX (<$7M in Q1 excl. demob; FY < $25M ex-Plant 2), and quarter-by-quarter guidance cadence; segment mix shift (EI up, TB down near term) impacts blended margins .

Appendix: Additional Data (FY 2024 summary)

FY24 revenue $452.7M (+90% YoY), gross margin 40%, net income $13.4M (includes $27.5M one-time extinguishment), Adj. EBITDA $89.9M; CAPEX $86.3M (ex-Plant 2 CAPEX $42.4M) .

ASPEN AEROGELS INC (ASPN)·Q4 2024 Earnings Summary