Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste - Q2 2024
July 24, 2024
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to ASUR's Q2 2024 Results Conference Call. My name is Zico, and I'll be your operator. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. We will conduct a question-and-answer session toward the end of today's conference. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one. If you want to withdraw your question at any time, please press star two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before making a selection. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Now, I'd like to turn this call over to Mr. Adolfo Castro, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Thank you, Zico. Good morning, everyone. Before I begin discussing our results, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements which are based on current management expectations and beliefs and are subject to several risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including factors that may be beyond our company's control. Additional details about our quarterly results can be found in our press release, which was issued yesterday after market close and is available on our website in the investor relations section. Following my presentation, I will be available for Q&A. Before moving on to our performance for the quarter, let me provide an update on recent developments on the sustainability front. Beginning with, we have complied with various ESG reporting requirements, including the Mexican Stock Exchange, the United Nations Global Compact, and the Mexican Register of Carbon Emissions.
We are also implementing a data collection process that will allow us to calculate our Scope 3 carbon emissions. This process is approximately at 90% complete as of the end of the Q2 for the Mexican efforts. We also renewed our social project with Pro-Natura, which supports local fishing communities and promotes ecotourism in the Yucatán Peninsula. The new scope of the project will include 40 additional direct beneficiaries and approximately 100 indirect beneficiaries. Additionally, we have been in conversation to strengthen ASUR Alliance with the UNICEF and extend the activities of this agency to all airports across our group. Lastly, we are also in the final stages of establishing a strategic alliance with ECPAT, a non-governmental organization that aims to prevent human trafficking. We look forward to providing more updates as we continue to advance in our sustainability journey.
Now, starting with a review of ASUR's operational and financial performance for the quarter. As usual, all comparisons and disclosures will be year-on-year unless specified otherwise. Passenger traffic was up 3% year-on-year to nearly 18 million passengers, a record high for the Q2. Traffic growth in Puerto Rico and Colombia more than offset a softer performance in Mexico. By region, Colombia posted the strongest performance with traffic up 21% year-on-year, driven by the increases in domestic and international in the high teens and in the high 20s. Traffic in Colombia continued to benefit from easier comps following the suspension of two operators in February last year, which accounted for 20% of the traffic. We expect this positive recovery trend to continue during the remainder of the year as Avianca and LATAM Airlines regain some lost routes.
Puerto Rico delivered a 9% increase in traffic driven by growth in high single digits in domestic traffic and double digits in international traffic. As anticipated, we are seeing a normalization in the traffic of Puerto Rico, as last year benefited from the increased operations by Frontier Airlines. Lastly, traffic in Mexico declined close to 5%, reflecting single-digit contractions in both international and domestic traffic. In terms of international traffic, we saw declines from all the regions except Canada in the quarter. In turn, domestic traffic remains impacted by the initial effects of the Pratt & Whitney engine problem experienced in the past few quarters, as well as the capacity reduction of air traffic movements at Mexico City Airport since early this year.
As a reminder, Mexico City Airport accounted for 45% of ASUR's domestic traffic in 2023, and we expect this situation to continue negatively impacting domestic traffic this year, which could cause a small decline in the year. Now, moving on to P&L. As a reminder, all references to revenue and cost are excluding construction. Total revenues increased nearly 18% to MXN 7 billion in the quarter. Colombia stood out with a top-line growth in the 30s%, mainly benefiting from the pickup in international traffic. Mexico delivered revenue growth in the high teens% and Puerto Rico in the middle single digits. Mexico accounted for 74% of the total revenues, posted an 18% top-line increase, even as passenger traffic declined 5%.
Revenue was driven by high-20s growth in aeronautical services, reflecting the adjustment established in the recent Master Development Plan and the impact of the weaker peso, taking into account that international tariffs are based in US dollars. In turn, non-aeronautical revenues increased low-single-digits. Puerto Rico accounted for 15% of the total revenues and delivered a 5% growth in the top-line, reflecting a high-single-digit increase in non-aeronautical, while aeronautical revenues increased by low-single-digits. In turn, Colombia, which represented 11% of revenues, posted a 35% increase in top-line, reflecting a good performance in both aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues, which benefited from international traffic growth. As we continue to execute our strategy of expanding our commercial offering, we opened 45 new commercial spaces over the past 12 months. Of these, 17 were opened in Mexico, four in Puerto Rico, and 33 in Colombia.
As a result, commercial revenues were up 7%, more than double the growth in passenger traffic, mainly reflecting increases of 4% in Mexico, 9% in Puerto Rico, and an impressive 40% rise in Colombia. On a per-passenger basis, commercial revenue increased 5% year-on-year to nearly MXN 128 in the quarter. This performance was mainly driven by growth of 16% in Colombia, 9% in Mexico, and Puerto Rico was relatively flat. Mexico reported record-high commercial revenues per passenger at MXN 154.5, beyond the typical levels achieved during the pandemic, benefiting from a strong US dollar. Moving down to the P&L, costs and expenses increased nearly 30% year-on-year. On a comparable basis, excluding the MXN 252 million recovery in expenses in Puerto Rico under the Coronavirus Response and Relief Supplemental Applications Act in the Q2 of last year, total costs were up 16%, slightly below revenue growth.
By geography, costs in Mexico were up 18%, resulting from increases of 80% in the concession fees established by the Mexican government and 20% in minimum wages, mainly in cleaning and security, both effective 1 January 2024. This was partially offset by a 50% reduction in the technical assistance fee. On a comparable basis, Puerto Rico reported a 10% increase in costs, which was below revenue growth, while Colombia were up 19% above revenue growth. Consolidated EBITDA was up 18% year-on-year to MXN 5 billion in the quarter, while adjusted EBITDA margin, which excludes construction, was relatively unchanged at 69%. Note that on a comparable basis, excluding the recovery expenses in Puerto Rico in the Q2 of last year, EBITDA would have increased 26%, and the Adjusted EBITDA margin were expanded by 435 basis points year-on-year.
This good performance was driven by a solid profitability across our three regions of operation. Puerto Rico presented the strongest performance with comparable EBITDA up over 90%, Colombia followed by a 49% increase, while Mexico posted an 18% increase in EBITDA. Turning to the balance sheets, we maintain a healthy financial position with cash and cash equivalents of nearly MXN 15 billion after taking into account the dividend payments totaling 6.3 billion pesos during the quarter, equivalent to a cash and cash equivalent of MXN 10.926 per share and an extraordinary cash dividend of MXN 10 per share. Lastly, in terms of CapEx, we made investments of nearly MXN 650 million during the quarter and close to MXN 820 million in the first half of the year. We are currently in the process of project planning and carrying out the bidding process to select contractors.
Key projects include Cancún Airport, the expansion of Terminal four, and reconstruction and expansion of Terminal one, and finally, the expansion of the terminal in Oaxaca Airport. Note that all construction works will take place outside the operating area and those not affected by regional reserves. Wrapping up, we delivered a solid Q2 with net income up 50% year-on-year to MXN 3.7 billion. This good performance also benefited from the foreign exchange gain of nearly MXN 950 million this quarter, resulting from the 10% quarter and the appreciation of the Mexican peso against the US dollar, compared with the MXN 350 million FX loss reported in the same quarter last year. This quarter was not without its challenges, notably the ongoing issues of GTF engines and the reduction of capacity at Mexico City Airport, but we navigated through these and delivered solid results in the quarter.
This ends my present prepared remarks. Zico, please open the floor for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Again, to the audience, it is star, then one for questions. And again, please make sure your mute function is turned off or the answer is picked up before pressing the corresponding digits.
Our first question is from Rodolfo Ramos from Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Good morning, Adolfo. Thanks for taking my question. Just a couple from my side. The first one is on traffic. Wanted to get your sense of where we stand in the recalls. Pratt & Whitney. You're one of the least exposed. Just wanted to get your thoughts on where we stand there and on traffic as well. If you would expect, given the rhetoric that we've seen so far from the US election campaign, whether we can expect a similar impact from what we saw last time around in terms of the US International Bound Traffic. So that's my first one on traffic. And secondly, if you can just give us a sense of pricing of where you currently stand. You had mentioned in the previous call that you increased prices in April.
Just wanted to see where do you stand versus your maximum tariffs and what to expect there going forward. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Hello, Adolfo. Good morning. Well, in the case of the GTF engine, of course, I do not have the exact and precise data, but what I understand, the most affected is Volaris. They sent 19 airplanes during the Q4 and 26 during the Q1. And you know the time of the recall is around 300 days. So we will see those planes coming back to production, I would say, at the end of September this year. So from now until September, the things are not going to improve. And after that, I believe they will stabilize up to Q1 next year, and then they should improve.
In the case of what you have mentioned, because of the elections in the US, yes, I do expect, and you can see that very clear, that Mexico, the Mexican situation will be there in all the candidates, and they will be blaming all the problems we have here, and that may affect traffic during the Q4. In terms of pricing, we have adjusted our prices, so we are working towards to have a maximum tariff compliance of close to 99% for the year.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you, Adolfo.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from Guilherme Mendes from J.P. Morgan. Please go ahead.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, Adolfo. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering in terms of the commercial revenues. ASUR has been surprising to the upside on a per-passenger basis. And you mentioned about opening a bunch of new commercial spaces in the three regions. How should we think about this segment going forward? Meaning, in addition to the investments that you're going to make in Cancún Airport, should we expect additional openings or ramp-ups on the commercial front? And my second question is on traffic, following up on the previous one, but think about Puerto Rico and Colombia. You mentioned on the past conference call about a normalization on the trend of both Colombia and Puerto Rico accelerating and decelerating. Just wanted to double-check if that's still your base case expectation. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Thank you. Well, in the case of commercial revenues, what you saw for the quarter, it was increasing parking and also car rental. Those were the two winners for the quarter. I have to say that, of course, in the case of Mexico, which has reached a record high of MXN 154 per passenger, we were positively affected by the Mexican peso depreciation. In the case of the traffic to Puerto Rico and Colombia, yes, I do believe that Puerto Rico should normalize during the remaining of the year. And in the case of Colombia, what I do expect is the recovery process towards the end of the year for what we have lost last year with the grounding of these two airlines that represented 20% of the traffic during 2022.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you so much. Have a good day.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Thank you. The next question is from Jens Spiess with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Yes. Hello, Adolfo. Thank you for taking the time for the questions. I just wanted to ask on the realized tariff. I think you reported MXN 326. And doing some math here, we get that it represents around 95% of your maximum tariff if we weigh it by traffic of the individual airports. Does it sound about right, or are we missing anything? And a follow-up to that, are you worried about the depreciation in the Mexican peso or, I think, better said, a further depreciation in the Mexican peso, which could maybe result in a heightened risk of you exceeding the maximum tariff and potentially having to give some discounts towards the end of the year?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, in the case of the maximum tariff, there's a clear paragraph in the Mexican section that says what was the weighted average maximum rate obtained, well, implicit rate obtained during the quarter. What I was saying last year, yes, we reached 95%, and what we are expecting is it's close to 99%. Of course, that will depend on what you just mentioned in terms of the Mexican peso. Mexican peso devaluation will help us to get these objectives as the tariffs for the international flights are based in US dollars. So remember that maximum rate is in pesos, so that will help us to reach the objective.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Perfect. If I may, just one follow-up. In terms of traffic, I mean, comparing it to what you forecasted within your tariff review, I mean, we're not even close to getting to the 3% cap back, aren't we? Or any color on that?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, in terms of traffic, what I would say is what we were expecting from Pratt & Whitney. The decrease in the international traffic has been higher in comparison with what we were expecting at the end of last year.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
But not in higher. Okay.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
I would say nothing dramatic.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Higher, but not close to the 3% cap back.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Higher in terms of more negative. Today, the current traffic is more negative as we were expecting.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. That's clear. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from Fernanda Recchia with BTG. Please go ahead. Fernanda Recchia, may we ask you to unmute your line and please go ahead with your question? As there is no response, may I request that we move to the next participant?
The next question is from Jay Singh with Citibank. Please go ahead.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Hey, thanks for taking my question. I guess the first thing I wanted to ask is you mentioned earlier that Colombia and Puerto Rico's traffic strength you see moderating a little bit. I also want to ask, JetBlue has been raising capacity into Puerto Rico's market. So considering that, do you still see some degree of moderation, or do you just see it sticking around a little bit higher?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Hello, Jay. I cannot hear you well. Could you speak louder?
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Sure. So you mentioned Colombia's and Puerto Rico's traffic strength potentially moderating in the coming quarters, but JetBlue has been raising their capacity into Puerto Rico's market. So do you see that sticking around, or do you still see it normalizing?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
The most important effect in Puerto Rico last year was the entrance of Frontier, and they are expanding and creating a base in Puerto Rico. Of course, when you reach the comparable year-over-year, then it will not be easier to reach the 18% growth we got last year. So that's why I'm saying that it should normalize once we reach the 12-month rollover with the entrance of Frontier.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
All right. Thanks. And for my second question, I wanted to ask, how much CapEx can we expect on a consolidated basis, and what would the split look like between the MDP and the non-MDP?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Again, I cannot hear you.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. How much CapEx can we expect on a consolidated basis, and what would the split look like between the MDP and the non-MDP?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
The MDP for these years is around MXN 3.8 billion that, of course, will have to be adjusted with the construction price index, and that's what we have to comply with. I have to say that at the beginning of the five-year period, once the projects have been approved at the end of last year, we have to wait until we develop the projects, make the bidding process, and find the contractors, and then they can start constructing. So that's why you are seeing a very slow, between brackets, number for the first half of the year, the 800-and-something million comparable with the MXN 3.8 billion that we have to spend during the year.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
All right. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question is from the line of Pablo Monsivais with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, Adolfo. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. May I just ask if you can provide some color on your perspective for US traffic to Cancún? We have seen some weakness, and US carriers are saying that they are taking out capacity. But what are your thoughts on this, and especially how deep or how prolonged can this be? That's number one. And number two, I would like to have more detail on your commercial revenues planned for Colombia and Puerto Rico going forward. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, in the case of the traffic to Cancún, as you have seen in the first half of the year, it has not been nice. Basically affected by the domestic situation of GTF engine and the reduction of the air traffic movements at Mexico City Airport from 52 to 43. I don't think that these two things will change, so those two things will continue affecting the traffic during the second half of the year. And also, the new negative effect is the reduction in the traffic from the US, as I have mentioned in my initial remarks. As it was mentioned during the call, during 2018, at the end of 2018, because of the elections of the US, where there was someone saying every single day that Mexico was a bad place to be, probably we will be affected from this traffic from the US.
Not very high hopes on the traffic for Cancún over here.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Thank you. The next question is from Andressa Varotto with UBS. Please go ahead.
Alberto Valerio (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, good morning. Actually, it's Alberto Valerio here from the UBS team. I would like to know about the new airline in Mexico, Mexicana de Aviación, what we should expect from them if you have talked to them for some new routes to your airport. Also, what should we expect from the industry of airlines in Mexico if you see any additional capacity? We know that both Viva and Volaris, they are threatened with engine issue, but for next year, in 2026, what should we expect from the domestic industry? Thank you very much.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, in the case of Mexican de Aviación, what I have heard or what I have read in the news and the numbers that have been provided by the Mexican government is they have transported around 100,000 passengers during the first five months of the year. So if we compare that with the 8 million from Volaris, 9 million from Viva, and probably another 8 from Aeroméxico, it doesn't mean too much. As we have seen, Viva, Volaris, and Aeroméxico have been adding some additional planes to their fleets. This is also in the case of Volaris and Viva partially mitigating the effect of GTF. Remember that this GTF situation is a temporary situation, so we should see a strong recovery from these three next year.
Alberto Valerio (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you very much.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Isabela Salazar with GBM. Please go ahead.
Isabela Salazar (Equity Research Analyst)
Hello, Adolfo. Thank you for taking my question. I was wondering if you could give us any updates on Punta Cana.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
We don't have any updates. The legal process has been established, and that will take time. As I have said during my previous conference call, the project is put on hold for one year at least.
Isabela Salazar (Equity Research Analyst)
Okay. Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Andres Aguirre with GBM. Please go ahead.
Andres Aguirre (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, Adolfo. Thanks for the question. I was wondering if you could provide an overview of expected traffic mix of international and domestic passengers for the remainder of the year. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, as I have mentioned, domestic traffic for the remainder of the year is going to be affected by these two things: Pratt & Whitney, Mexico City. So we should expect these to be negative in the whole system, not just in the case of Azul.
Andres Aguirre (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. The next question comes from Anton Marc with GBM. Please go ahead.
Anton Marc (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, Adolfo. Congrats on the results, and thank you for taking my question. I have two quick questions. One is related to your cash balance. I was wondering if you could tell us how much of that is dollarized. And the second one is, considering the cash flow generation that you have right now and with the CapEx commitments, even though they are really high for the next five years, it seems like you will end up with a significant cash balance of around MXN 20 billion. I was just wondering, what are your thoughts on the possible use of that cash?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Hello, Anton. Well, basically, you can see the numbers. Puerto Rico is US, Colombia is Colombian pesos, and in the case of Mexico, some of these is US dollars. Roughly speaking, in Mexico, we should be around $400-and-something million in dollars and the rest in pesos. In terms of the cash flow generation, yes, of course, we have a lot of CapEx in front, very high numbers in the coming years. But as always, we will review these at the end of every year in terms of the tax situation, the cash balance, the CapEx commitments, and we will propose the dividends to the board of directors and then to the shareholders' assembly.
As I have mentioned, during May and June, we have paid MXN 6.3 billion in dividends, and it was an ordinary dividend of MXN 10.926 and an extraordinary dividend of MXN 10 as it was done last year.
Anton Marc (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you, Adolfo.
Operator (participant)
Thank you.
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes the question-and-answer portion for today's conference call. I would like to turn it back over to Mr. Castro for closing remarks.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Thank you, Zico, and thank you all of you again for joining us today for this Q2 2024 conference call. We wish you a good day and goodbye. Now you may disconnect.