Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste - Q3 2023
October 24, 2023
Transcript
Operator (participant)
Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to ASUR's third quarter 2023 results conference call. My name is Ryan, and I will be your operator. At this time, all participants are in listen-only mode. We will conduct a question-and-answer session towards the end of today's conference. If you'd like to ask a question, please press star followed by one. If you want to withdraw your question at any time, please press star followed by two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before making a selection. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. I'd now turn the call over to Mr. Adolfo Castro, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Thank you, Ryan, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin discussing our results, let me remind you that certain statements made during this call may constitute forward-looking statements, which are based on current management expectations and beliefs, and are subject to several risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially, including factors that may be beyond our company's control. As usual, additional details about our quarterly results can be found in our press release, which was issued yesterday after market close, and is available on our website in investor relations sector. Following my presentation, I will be available for Q&A. Before getting into a discussion of the quarterly results, let me start today's call with a recap of the recent developments in connection with the concession agreements of our Mexican operations, as recently announced.
On October the 4th, as we received a notification from the Mexican Federal Civil Aviation Agency, that it had decided to amend, with immediate effect, the terms of the tariff-based regulation. These terms were laid out in Exhibit Seven of the concession agreements established in 1998, and then amended in 1999. On October 19, as we received a notification from the Mexican Federal Civil Aviation Agency, which modified the document received on October the 4th. The full text of the amended Exhibit Seven was filed with the Mexican Bolsa and the Securities and Exchange Commission. On October 18, the lower house of the Mexican Congress approved the initiative to increase the concession fee from 5% to 9%, which is now under review by the Senate. We do not know when this may be approved and when the change in the case will be effective.
ASUR is currently evaluating the charges, the changes implemented by the Mexican Federal Civil Aviation Agency, and the potential impact that it may have on its business, including its financials. Now, moving on to ASUR's operating and financial performance for the quarter. Before starting, note that all comparisons are year-on-year, unless otherwise noted. Starting with traffic. On a consolidated basis, 17.6 million passengers traveled through our airports in the third quarter, a record high for a third quarter. We accomplished this even as the growth rate has slowed to 3.4%. Additional traffic trends by country were mixed. As in the prior quarter, the suspension of two Colombian airlines earlier in the year, together with an increase in the value-added taxes, resulted in a contraction of nearly 15% in total traffic in Colombia.
By contrast, Puerto Rico again delivered the fastest growth, up nearly 25%, driven by solid performance in both domestic and international traffic. Lastly, traffic in Mexico was up close to 6%, driven by domestic traffic that offset a 0.6% decline in international traffic. It was primarily due to a slight year-over-year decrease in the passenger traffic to and from Europe, South America, offset by higher traffic from the U.S. and Canada. Moving into the P&L, as a reminder, all reference to revenue and costs exclude construction and cost revenues. Also note that Puerto Rico and Colombia figures reflect the strong Mexican peso, which appreciated over 13% and 2% versus the U.S. dollar and the Colombian peso, since the end of the third quarter 2022 through the end of the third quarter of this year, respectively.
With this, revenues increased over 3% to just over MXN 6 billion in the third quarter, mainly driven by growth in aeronautical and non-aeronautical revenues in Mexico, while Puerto Rico and Colombia posted declines of nearly 1% and 15% respectively. However, measured in local currencies, revenues increased 18.6% in Puerto Rico and 3.4% in Colombia. Although Mexico represented 73% of total revenues, while Puerto Rico and Colombia accounted for nearly 16% and 11%, respectively. Commercial revenues were up 3%, in line with passenger traffic growth, driven by increases of 2% in Mexico, 8% in Puerto Rico, partially offset by a 1% decline in Colombia. On a per-passenger basis, commercial revenue remained flat at MXN 116.5, with Mexico and Puerto Rico contracting to MXN 136 and MXN 139 per passenger respectively.
In Colombia posted a midterm increase to MXN 43. In local currency, Puerto Rico and Colombia posted increases in commercial revenue per passenger, approximately 2.5% and 27.3% respectively. These increases were partially driven by actions we have undertaken to further increase our passenger traffic experience, which include 66 new commercial spaces open across all our airport network during the last 12 months. Of these, 16 opened in Mexico, four in Puerto Rico, and 46 in Colombia. Consolidated EBITDA for the quarter increased year-over-year 3% to MXN 4.2 billion in Mexico, remaining the main contributor to profitability, posting a 3% increase to MXN 3.3 billion. Followed by a recovery in Puerto Rico, with EBITDA up 8% to just over MXN 500 million.
Performance in Colombia also improved, with EBITDA of MXN 411 million. Although this represented a decline of nearly 10%, it was better than the 23% decrease reported in the second quarter, 2023. In turn, consolidated adjusted EBITDA margin, which excludes construction, remained relatively flat to 69.6 year-over-year. A strong performance in Puerto Rico, which delivered a 400 basis points margin increase, offset declines of 90 and 300 basis points in Mexico and Colombia, respectively. In summary, we delivered another good quarter despite the strong peso. Good results in Mexico were further supported by a strong performance in Puerto Rico and improving core profitability in Colombia, reflecting the suspension of operations of two Colombian airlines earlier in the year and higher value-added taxes.
We maintain a strong and healthy balance sheet, with cash and cash equivalents over MXN 16.9 billion and a healthy debt profile. Our strong financial position enables us to return cash to shareholders in the form of dividends. Specifically, we made a payment of an ordinary dividend that amounted to nearly MXN 3 billion, and in November, we will be paying an extraordinary cash dividend of MXN 10 per share, equivalent to approximately another MXN 3 billion. Finally, capital expenditures in the quarter totaled MXN 367 million. Of these, 64% was allocated to Mexico, 35% to Puerto Rico, and the remainder in Colombia. This here ends my presentation. Ryan, please open the floor for questions.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Again, to the audience, it is star, then one for questions. And again, please make sure your mute function is turned off or the handset is picked up before pressing the corresponding digits. Our first question comes from Juan Ponce with Bradesco BBI. Please go ahead.
Juan Ponce (Mexico Equity Strategy Analyst)
Hi, Adolfo. Good morning. Good morning, everybody. Thank you for taking my question. Considering that the MDP negotiation is a long process, and the fact that you are now in the last stretch of the tariff negotiation, what are the implications from the regulatory changes on your MDP negotiating process? That's my first question. And my second question would be, do you agree that perhaps the initial tariff impact could be around 10%, which is what some members of the SICT have mentioned? And if the impact, if the financial impact is unknown, or if we get an even greater negative impact, are there any legal avenues you can take to curtail these measures? Thank you very much.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Okay, Juan. Good morning. In the case of the MDP process, as you have mentioned, this is almost two years process. We were almost at the end of the process, and now with this document, we will have to restart again in terms of the document that we will have to present to the authorities in the coming days, I would say. As we speak, we are adjusting the document in accordance with the new regulation that we have received last week. So we are now in the process to evaluate what the impacts may be on this respect. In terms of what you're saying, of the 10% tariff reduction, et cetera, is not something that we are, for the moment, available to answer.
We will have to see and wait until these new basis of regulations are applied in the numbers of the company. And that, I believe, is gonna be at towards the end of the year, probably the first week of January, when we are gonna be able to say what was the implication of these new base tariff regulation on the numbers of the company.
Juan Ponce (Mexico Equity Strategy Analyst)
Okay, thank you very much, Adolfo. And regarding any legal avenues you can take to curtail these measures, is this a possibility or not at all? Not in the cards. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
For the moment, we are not considering any legal action on this respect.
Juan Ponce (Mexico Equity Strategy Analyst)
Got it. Thank you very much, Adolfo.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Guilherme Mendes with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.
Guilherme Mendes (VP of Equity Research)
Good morning, Adolfo, and thanks for taking my question. I have a follow-up on the MDP and the regulatory changes, which is related to the concession fees. On the old contract, there used to be a compensation on tariffs regarding any potential increase in concession fees. Just wondering, how should we think about this going forward? So would this increase from 5% to 9% on the concession fees be fully incorporated by companies, or there may be some kind of compensation on the new contract? And the second question is regarding the investment on the Dominican Republic, if there's any update on that front, if you could share any details in terms of timing or potentially the financials of the project. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Hi, good morning. In the case of the 5% to 9%, as I have mentioned during the initial remarks, this has not been approved yet. On the first place, it's subject to Senate approval. And second, we don't know when this is gonna be applicable for us, from when, in the case Senate approves. So in that sense, we don't know yet how the new document or the new types of regulations are gonna treat these charts. In the case of your second question, could you repeat that again?
Guilherme Mendes (VP of Equity Research)
Yeah, sure. It's regarding the investments on the Dominican Republic, that you announced it on the previous quarter, if there's any updated on this project, or if you could share something in terms of timing or the financials of the investment. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Yes, we are in the process today, as we speak, finalizing the design of the buildings, and we believe that we will initiate construction in the first half of next year.
Guilherme Mendes (VP of Equity Research)
Thank you, Adolfo.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Fernanda Recchia with BTG Pactual. Please go ahead.
Fernanda Recchia (Director of Equity Research)
Hey, Adolfo. Good morning. Thank you for taking my question. I have two. First, on the Pratt & Whitney issue that we saw, that might impact Volaris and Viva's airspace. Just wondering, how are you expecting the impact on ASUR? I know it maybe could be early, but we know that Cancún has a great exposure to Volaris. So if you could give us your preliminary thoughts, if you expect this capacity to be absorbed by other airlines, or it could impact us too. And second, on traffic evolution, as you mentioned on your remarks, Puerto Rico is doing very well. So just wondering your forecast for Puerto Rico going forward. And Colombia, they are down by more than 10%, more or less. I think the last time we spoke, you mentioned a 20% fall that you were expecting.
Just wondering if you are still projecting this number, and when should we start to see growth pattern normalized? Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome. Well, in the case of your first, first question, that has to do with Pratt & Whitney engines. It is not just Volaris, this is all around the world. It's 3,000 engines that must be recalled, that's 1,500 airplanes. And that accounts for many other airlines. I know that JetBlue have some, Spirit has some, American Airlines, very few of them. So to be honest, today, we do not have enough information to say what the implication is gonna be in the traffic of the world. In the case of Viva, Volaris, Viva has said to us that they do not see a major implication with this situation.
In the case of Volaris, what I understand is that around 60% of their fleet have this kind of engine, so we are expecting a major impact from Volaris. And I agree with you that Cancún has a lot of flights with these airlines. So the best way to evaluate this situation would be to hear Volaris and to see what they're gonna say during their conference. But yes, we do expect some effects of this next year that will, of course, depend on how fast and how the manufacturer recalls the engines of Volaris. That have to do with the cycles they have in their engines, and it's something that we don't know yet.
In the case of Colombia, the 20% was what we have said, that these two airlines meant 20% of our traffic last year. So whatever number is better than the 20%, that means that the other two airlines, Avianca and LATAM, are recuperating from these two airlines that disappear or that went in stop operations, no? So the number we have recently published is, in my opinion, a good number, because it's lower than the 20%, no? Remember that these airlines were out since February this year, so as from February next year, we will see the traffic to start growing again.
Fernanda Recchia (Director of Equity Research)
Thank you. And just a follow-up on Puerto Rico, do you expect to keep this double-digit growth pace going forward?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
The extraordinary growth we are seeing in Puerto Rico right now has to come with a new airline and ultra low-cost carrier that started operations in Puerto Rico, and they have increased our traffic substantially. So this is good news for Puerto Rico. We don't know how much or how long this is going to last, but for the moment, we are very happy to see this 20-something percent increase year-over-year.
Fernanda Recchia (Director of Equity Research)
Thank you, Adolfo. Have a good day.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bruno Amorim with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.
Bruno Amorim (VP of LatAm Energy, Transportation, and Infrastructure Equity Research)
Yes, good morning, and thank you for taking my questions. I have two. The first one, you know, I just wanted to reconcile the big picture here. You know, actually, the government is increasing the concession fee. They have stated that they want to lower tariffs. So if you want to keep the contract balanced, meaning allowing for the private operators to earn the allowed return on invested capital, I guess you could extend the life of the concession or eventually postpone CapEx. So the question is, are those the two levers you see on the table? And are you, you know, in talks with the government to eventually postpone CapEx or to extend the life of the concession? So that's the first question.
The follow-up on that is, you know, if we get to a situation where, you know, it's not possible to square all those variables, if the contract, you know, is not the concession is not earning the allowed return, is it still an option to go to the court or not? You know, how do you think about this trade-off, going to the courts or not? What could trigger this decision? Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, in the case of your first question, extending the concession or diminishing CapEx. Well, first of all, I have to say that CapEx is not because we want. The CapEx is the mathematical relation in terms of the demand. So if demand increases, of course, CapEx increases, so we will have to construct whatever is necessary to support the level of service for the demand that is coming. We are not in talks about extending the concession contract. And in terms of the balance, I do agree with your question about how to reduce rates if you're increasing fees, you know? It's something that we will have to see once we apply this new regulation document in our numbers or in our MDP towards the end of the year.
Bruno Amorim (VP of LatAm Energy, Transportation, and Infrastructure Equity Research)
Thank you, Adolfo. And so if at the end of the day, you know, there is no offset for the higher concession fee and for the lower tariffs, is it fair to say the returns would likely be lower than what they should be? And in that case, you know, could the company go to the court?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, Bruno, in the case of the document, you already have the full text of the document. So in terms of the discount rate, I do believe that you all have all the information, the necessary information to calculate what is that number today, you know? So, it's now more than ever, completely transparency for you to calculate this number.
Bruno Amorim (VP of LatAm Energy, Transportation, and Infrastructure Equity Research)
Thank you, Adolfo. We can follow up offline if necessary. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alberto Valerio with UBS. Please go ahead.
Alberto Valerio (Equity Research Analyst of LatAm Transportation, Cement and Construction, and Capital Goods)
Hi, thanks, Adolfo, for taking my question. My, my first one, I would like to... If you could provide us some details on Mexican traffic. We see a resilient domestic demand and strong international. This is a trend. It's something that we should see now recovering next quarter and next year. And my second one, if you could give it some color as well on Mexicana de Aviación. How should we treat it? Should we see firstly some increase in supply and then we might see some companies struggling to follow the price. What is your color on it? Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome. In the case of the Mexican traffic, as I have said, yes, we do expect some negative effects next year, due to the fact of this Pratt & Whitney engines in the case of Volaris, you know? Of course, on the other side, as you have mentioned, the government has announced that they will initiate operations with Mexicana Airlines. These Mexicana—well, what we have heard from them, is that they will initiate with 10 aircraft. Just to give you an idea, today, the Mexican fleet is around 356 aircraft. So if we add 10, it is not an important effect on the whole scenario.
In the case of Pratt & Whitney engines for Volaris, that means more or less 60 aircrafts that could be stopped for 200 or 250 days. So the negative effect is offsetting these new addition airlines of Mexicana de Aviación. What we know is that they have not received, as of today, the license to start operations, even though they were saying that they will be initiating flights December the 1st, this year. So that maybe it will take more time.
Alberto Valerio (Equity Research Analyst of LatAm Transportation, Cement and Construction, and Capital Goods)
Okay. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Anton Mortenkotter with GBM. Please go ahead.
Anton Mortenkotter (Equity Research Analyst of Real Assets)
Hi, Adolfo. Thank you for taking my question. Without getting much into details, I understand you're still evaluating the effects that the regulatory change will have, but thinking on a more strategic way and knowing the most relevant changes of these amendments, what would you say are the main ways that these modifications could affect your way of looking at the path and decisions taken as we're going forward?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, again, in that sense, Anton, we are transforming or updating or adjusting our documents to these new regulatory demands that we have received last Thursday, so it's too early to tell. Once they apply this new regulatory regime, we will be able to say what the effects were in the case of our MDP.
Anton Mortenkotter (Equity Research Analyst of Real Assets)
Okay. Thank you. Also, just a quick follow-up. I didn't get... I'm not sure if I got it right, but given that this was so- that doesn't work so quickly, and you were already at the end of the MDP, is it possible for you to delay the final outcome of the MDP, or does it have to be ready for the beginning of the next year?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
I do believe that it has to be ready by the end of the year, unless they say that they are not ready. So we will... I do believe that we will deliver our documents updated with these new regulatory basis in the coming days, and we will take it from there.
Anton Mortenkotter (Equity Research Analyst of Real Assets)
Perfect. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Stephen Trent with Citi. Please go ahead.
Stephen Trent (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Good morning, Adolfo, and thanks very much for taking my question. The first is actually a follow-up from Alberto Valerio on AMLO's new airline. Are you hearing anything at all pushback-wise, with respect to the government you know arguably having control of some airports and an airline in the same market?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, as far as I understand, they have adjusted the law, because in the past, that was not possible. There was no way that someone will have airports and airlines in both centers of more than 5% from one to the other, no? So I do believe that they adjusted the law in order that they can have this.
Stephen Trent (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Wow! Okay. Appreciate that, Adolfo. Just one other very quick one for me. I know that, you know, AMLO's also has this Tulum Airport that seems to be in the works. You know, do you have any high-level view with respect to whether the risk to charter traffic could impact your maximum tariff?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, in the case of Tulum Airport, and that's a good question, Aeroméxico and Viva started to sell tickets as from December the 1st from that airport. So it's something that you can see in their webpage, on the reservations page. They will start December the 1st. In the case of charter flights, I do believe that charter flights that have final destination, let's say 10 km south to Playa del Carmen, they should be using Tulum as, as, as airport, because their final destination is closer to that airport, no? That, of course, will have an impact on Cancún, and that has been considered in our MDP, and that, technically speaking, may result in an increase of the tariff of Cancún Airport.
Stephen Trent (Managing Director and Senior Research Analyst)
Okay, perfect. Appreciate the call, Adolfo, and thanks for the time.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Thank you.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Pablo Ricalde with Santander. Please go ahead.
Pablo Ricalde (VP and Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, Adolfo. Thanks for taking my question. I have a question on the regulation as well. And now that you have to discount using a WACC, which level of debt you have to use? The one that you have on the Mexico structure or the one that you have, consolidated?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Pablo, Pablo, there is no way to understand what you're saying. Your line is cutting in a very bad way.
Pablo Ricalde (VP and Equity Research Analyst)
I don't know if it can be better now?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
More or less.
Pablo Ricalde (VP and Equity Research Analyst)
I have a question on the debt you've used to calculate the WACC, not on the new discount rate. Do you have to use the one in Mexico or you have to use the one consolidated?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, in the case of that, you can see a paragraph there in the document we have filed last week, that says that in terms of the debt, it should only include the operations in Mexico. So if you are using consolidated financial statements of Cancún, you must exclude what is related to Puerto Rico and Colombia.
Pablo Ricalde (VP and Equity Research Analyst)
Okay, perfect.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Pablo Monsivais with Barclays. Please go ahead.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Hi, Adolfo. Thanks for taking my question. I just have two quick questions. The first one is on the commercial revenues per passenger in Mexico. On a dollar basis, it has increased a lot, and you just mentioned the opening of new spaces, but if you have more detail, would be good. Also, on the expectation for year-end on international travel to Cancún, I mean, international travel has decreased over the last few months. How are you seeing the final stretch of the year? Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, in the case of commercial revenues, we are having some effects, of course, from the Mexican strong peso. That is the case of duty-free, you know, that is the case of some other activities that are related to foreign people. In the case of the traffic, as I have mentioned during the initial remarks, what we saw from the quarter... On the first side, we have to understand that there should be a normalization of the numbers. Normalization means that no more double-digit numbers, no more extraordinary growth. But in the case of international, the decrease was related to the traffic to and from Europe and to and from South America. The case of the U.S. and Canada was a slight increase that offset these negatives.
But, the strong peso, of course, is taking in some point people out from this country. That's true.
Pablo Monsivais (Equity Research Analyst)
Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Arthur Suelotto with Apo Capital. Please go ahead.
Arthur Suelotto (Partner)
Thank you. Good morning, Adolfo. Just a quick follow-up, please, regarding, you know, the concessions. Are you in talks to extend the, you know, the terms of your concession at this point? I know that someone asked this previously, but just I couldn't get your answer. Just to check if you are discussing this with the government at this point, you know, considering all the changes that were announced recently. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Well, we are exactly at the middle of the term, so the original term was 50 years, where we have 25 in front, and as I have mentioned, we are not in talks at all about the extension of the concession.
Arthur Suelotto (Partner)
Very clear. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Luis Lama with BlackRock. Please go ahead.
Luis Lama (VP)
Hi, Adolfo. Thanks for taking the question. I'm just trying to clarify something that is a bit ambiguous on the new regulatory document. So are these changes to be applied at the end of this current MDP cycle or only for the next cycle?
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
This document is enforceable as we speak. In the case of roles, the main implications, of course, are within next MDP. That is in process. So I would say if everything is okay in terms of time from the authorities' respect, this document will be applied as well before the year is over, with our rate from the first day of next year.
Luis Lama (VP)
Okay. Thank you.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
You're welcome.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star and one. As there are no further questions, that concludes the question and answer portion of today's conference call. I would now like to turn the call back over to Mr. Castro for closing remarks.
Adolfo Castro (CEO)
Thank you, Ryan, and thank you all of you again for participating in our third quarter results conference call. On behalf of ASUR, we wish you a good day and goodbye. Now you may disconnect.
Operator (participant)
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes ASUR's third quarter 2023 results conference call. We would like to thank you again for your participation. You may now disconnect your lines.