Grupo Aeroportuario del Sureste - Earnings Call - Q3 2025

Transcript

Operator (participant)

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to ASUR's third quarter 2025 results conference call. My name is Latonya, and I'll be your operator. At this time, all participants are in the listen-only mode. We will conduct a question-and-answer session towards the end of today's conference. If you would like to ask a question, please press star one. If you want to withdraw your question at any time, please press star two. If you are using a speakerphone, please lift the handset before making a selection. As a reminder, today's call is being recorded. Now, I'd like to turn the call over to Mr. Adolfo Castro, Chief Executive Officer. Please go ahead, sir.

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

Thank you, Latonya, and good morning, everyone. Before I begin discussing our results, let me remind you that certain statements made during the call today may constitute forward-looking statements, which are based on current management expectations and beliefs, and are subject to several risks and uncertainties that would cause adverse results to differ materially, including factors that may be beyond our company's control. Additional details about our third quarter 2025 results can be found in our press release, which was issued yesterday after market close, and is available on our website in the Investor Relations section. Following my presentation, I will be available for Q&A. As usual, all comparisons discussed on this call will be year-on-year, and figures are expressed in Mexican pesos unless specified otherwise. Before discussing our results, I would like to begin today's call with an important strategic development.

As recently announced, we entered into a definitive agreement to acquire URW Airports for an enterprise value of $295 million. This transaction marks a significant step forward in ASUR's international expansion strategy, building our established presence in the U.S., which began with the operation of San Juan Puerto Rico Airport in 2013. URW Airports manages commercial programs at three most iconic and high-traffic airports in the United States. URW Airports manages commercial programs at three of the airports in the United States: Los Angeles International Airport, with six terminals, Chicago O'Hare International Airport at Terminal 1, and in the case of John F. Kennedy International Airport, covering Terminal 8 and the upcoming new Terminal 1. Together, these terminals process around 40 million enplanements.

This acquisition provides ASUR with a strategic foothold in three of the largest U.S. air travel markets and strengthens our position in the high-growth, non-regulated commercial segment in the U.S. airport industry. The acquisition will be financed by JP Morgan Chase. As with all our strategic decisions, we are approaching this opportunity with a financial discipline and operational rigor that has long defined ASUR's execution. Closing is expected during the second half of 2025. Subject to customary regulatory approvals, we look forward to keeping you updated on our progress in the quarters ahead. Now, turning to our third quarter performance, we served over 17 million passengers across our airports, with traffic remaining practically flat as continued growth in Colombia and Puerto Rico, helping to offset persistent headwinds in Mexico.

Starting with Colombia, passenger traffic rose 3% to close to five million, supported by a solid 11% increase in international traffic and a modest growth just under 1% in domestic volumes. In Puerto Rico, total traffic was up 1%, reaching over three million passengers. Growth was driven by international passengers, which increased nearly 12% year-on-year, offsetting the 0.5% decrease in domestic traffic. In Mexico, traffic declined 1% to nearly 10 million passengers for the quarter. The decrease reflects softer demands: domestic traffic, which was down nearly 2%, and international, which saw a slight contraction of 0.3%. Passenger volumes from the United States, our largest international source market, decreased just 0.2%, while South America contracted 7.2%. On the positive note, Canada and Europe increased 9.3% and 1.3%, respectively. Looking ahead, we anticipate a more balanced operating environment across our portfolio.

In Mexico, we expect traffic to gradually stabilize over the next year as aircraft availability improves. In Puerto Rico and Colombia, we expect continued positive momentum, supported by the healthy international demand and improving currencies. Now, turning to review our financial results, as a reminder, all figures exclude construction revenues and cost, unless otherwise noted. Comparisons are all year-on-year, unless otherwise noted. Total revenues increased in the middle single digits, reaching over MXN 7 billion, driven by growth in Puerto Rico and Colombia. Mexico, at 70% of total revenues, posted a slight low single-digit decline. Their aeronautical revenues practically flat and non-aeronautical revenues down in the middle single digits. Revenue growth was limited by softer passenger volumes and a stronger peso, which continues to weigh on the U.S.-linked revenue streams.

Puerto Rico, at nearly 18% of total revenues, reported revenue growth in the high single digit, driven by increases in 5% in aeronautical revenues and 10% in non-aeronautical revenues. This performance reflects positive passenger traffic trends and sustained demand across commercial activities. Colombia, which accounted for 12% of the total revenues, delivered revenue growth in the high single digit, reflecting a mid-single-digit increase in aeronautical revenues, while non-aeronautical revenues were up in the high teens. This good performance was supported by passenger traffic growth and partially offset by the strong Mexican peso. Continuing our ongoing focus on commercial development, we added 45 new commercial spaces across our airports over the last 12 months, including 31 in Colombia, eight in Puerto Rico, and six in Mexico. This supported a low single-digit increase in commercial revenues.

A solid growth in Puerto Rico and Colombia was partially offset by a weaker performance in Mexico. On a per-passenger basis, commercial revenue rose 1% to MXN 126. By region, Colombia led a 14% increase, followed by Puerto Rico up 10%, while Mexico posted a 4% decline, reaching MXN 144 per passenger. Turning to costs, total expenses were up nearly 17% year-on-year. By region, Mexico posted a 4% increase, largely due to higher maximum minimum wages and service cost. Puerto Rico reported expense increase of nearly 8%, reflecting inflationary pressures and higher operating revenues. While Colombia, cost increase is 76%, mainly driven by an adjustment in the amortization method of the concession. Without these, the increase would have been 5.4%. Lastly, in Puerto Rico and Colombia, cost benefited from the position of Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar.

On the profitability, growth consolidated in the EBITDA line just over 1% year-on-year to MXN 4.6 billion in the quarter. Puerto Rico and Colombia delivered EBITDA growth of nearly 5% and 10%, respectively, while EBITDA in Mexico declined just to 4%, mainly reflecting lower traffic and higher operating cost. The adjusted EBITDA margin, which excludes construction-related revenues and cost under IFRIC 12, declined by 157 bps to 66.7%. This reflects lower margin contribution from the Mexican and Puerto Rico operation, where the margin contracted 152 and 151 bps, respectively. In contrast, Colombia reported an 81 bps margin expansion. On our bottom line, this quarter was negatively impacted by the position of the Mexican peso against the U.S. dollar, which resulted in a foreign exchange loss of nearly MXN 1 billion compared to the reverse effect during the third quarter of last year.

Profitability was also affected by the MXN 333 million adjustment in the concessional amortization method in Colombia that I just explained. Now, moving to our balance sheet, we closed the quarter with a solid cash position of MXN 16 billion, down 19% from December 31st, 2024, primarily reflecting dividend payments made during the period. Our net debt to EBITDA ratio remained at healthy 0.2 times. In terms of capital deployment, in September, we paid an extraordinary dividend of MXN 15 per share funded from retained earnings. Note that in November, we will be paying an additional dividend of MXN 15 per share. Lastly, we invest close to MXN 1.9 billion during the quarter, primarily directed to projects around Mexican airports, including the reconstruction and expansion of Terminal 1 at Cancún Airport and the terminal expansion in Guadalajara.

In Puerto Rico, we are progressing on the new pedestrian bridge for Terminal A, while in Colombia, we invested in maintenance CapEx. In closing, our third quarter results reflect the resilience of multi-country platform and the value of our disciplined execution amid a more tempered demand environment. While traffic in Mexico continued to face near-term headwinds, we are encouraged by the ongoing momentum in Puerto Rico and Colombia. We remain focused on advancing our commercial strategy, investing in infrastructure, and maintaining a prudent financial profile. This concludes my prepared remarks. Latonya, please open the floor for questions.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. We will now begin the question-and-answer session. To ask a question, dial in by phone and press the star, then one on your telephone keypad. Make sure your mute function is turned off, and if you're using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys.

To withdraw your question, please press the star, then two. At this time, we will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. One moment. The first question comes from Rodolfo Ramos with Bradesco BBI. Please proceed.

Rodolfo Ramos (Equity Strategist)

Good morning. And also, thanks for taking my question. I have a couple, if I may. The first one is in regards to the URW acquisition. Can you shed a bit of light on the economics, revenue per pax, how much EBITDA contribution you're expecting from these assets on an annualized basis? And the second is on Colombia. Can you elaborate on this adjustment to the concession amortization method that we saw during the quarter? Was this a one-off, or should it be a new level going forward? And this has to do something with the economics of your concession title there. Thank you.

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

Hi, Rodolfo. Good morning. Thank you for your questions.

In the case of URW, I cannot yet share numbers with you until all of this is approved. In the case of Colombia, basically, what we have done is to change the amortization method because, in accordance with our estimates, during 2027, we will not receive regulated revenues anymore, and the concession should be over by 2032. So we are aligning the amortization in accordance with the revenue generation there. And it's going to be not one-off. It's going to be from now on the same level.

Rodolfo Ramos (Equity Strategist)

Thank you, Adolfo.

Operator (participant)

You're welcome. The next question comes from Anton Mortenkotter with GBM. Please proceed.

Anton Mortenkotter (Analyst)

Hi, Adolfo. Thank you for the call. I wanted to follow up a little bit on URW.

I understand you cannot discuss the financials, but leaving that aside, it seems like a great way to gain some strategic insight into the consumer that goes from your airports to the U.S. I just was wondering if you could discuss a little bit what kind of synergies do you see, or what is the strategic rationale behind this acquisition. Thank you.

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

Thank you, Anton. Well, basically, the most important for us is to put a foot in the U.S. market. The U.S. market represents 20% of the aviation market of the world. And these terminals are extremely important for the U.S. market. So putting our name there, it's extremely important. And this should be the platform for future growth in the United States, probably in the same kind of contracts that we are entering right now. That is the most important thing.

Anton Mortenkotter (Analyst)

Perfect. Thanks.

Operator (participant)

Thank you.

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

Our next question comes from Andres Volado with UBS. Please proceed.

Andres Volado (Analyst)

Hi, Adolfo. Thank you for taking my question. I have two here on my side. The first one is about multiple airports that are for sale, which we've been seeing the news quote that Azur is one of the candidates interested in these airports. So I was just wondering if you could provide some more information if you're looking, for example, at all of the airports or just a few say of them and how th

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

In the case of Multiva, I cannot comment. In the case of the traffic trends, what I see today is a slow recuperation in the domestic market because of the revenue in the engines, something that should improve, in my opinion, during the next year. For the moment, the traffic is extremely weak, and the demand is weak in the case of the region. If we see Cancún and Tulum together for the first eight months of the year, and I am saying eight months because that is the latest public figure for the case of the airport of Tulum, the traffic for the region is a decrease of 3.1%.

If we go to the latest month that has been published for the case of the airport of Tulum, which is the month of August this year, August versus August last year, the traffic of the region was a decrease of 5.1%, so the traffic is soft. Nevertheless, what you are saying in terms of the recent cancellations to the airport of Tulum.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. Our next question comes from.

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

Sorry? Could you repeat?

Operator (participant)

Our next question comes from Pablo Ricalde. The next question comes from Pablo Ricalde with Itaú. Please proceed.

Pablo Ricalde (Analyst)

Hi, good morning, Adolfo. My question is related to the new terminal, the non-new terminal one in Cancún. Is it still expected to be open around Q3 2026, or there are delays on that in terms of that one?

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

Pablo, hi, good morning.

What we are expecting is to open this new facility during the third quarter 2025, 2026, sorry.

Pablo Ricalde (Analyst)

Okay. So I'll expect it.

Operator (participant)

The next question comes from Gabriel Himelfarb with Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Gabriel Himelfarb (Analyst)

Adolfo, just two questions. First, is there any way or somehow that capacity allocation from carriers has been shifting from Cancún? And the second one is, the decrease in traffic could somehow make the pace of driving the tariffs toward the maximum tariff faster for either this year or next year? Thank you.

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

Well, in terms of capacity, we are not seeing a shift in capacity. What we are seeing, basically, is a weak demand, as I said, from the domestic resulting from revenue and some other elements. And in the case of the U.S., the numbers for the quarter is 0.2% decrease, which is small, but it's the largest market we have.

Let's see how the winter comes, and I hope that the winter will be very strong in the north part of the Americas, and then they come. Positive side is the case of Canada, which is up for the quarter, and I hope that it will be up during the fourth quarter as well.

Gabriel Himelfarb (Analyst)

Okay. Thank you. And in the case of the traffic that has somehow decreased, that could accelerate the pace on which tariffs are increased up to the maximum tariff?

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

No, I don't see that. Our maximum tariff compliance this year should be similar to what it was last year, so more than 99%.

Gabriel Himelfarb (Analyst)

Okay. Thank you.

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

You're welcome.

Operator (participant)

Once again, to ask a question, please press star one. At this time, one moment, please. At this time, we'll turn the call back over to Mr. Adolfo Castro for closing comments.

Adolfo Castro Rivas (CEO)

Thank you, Latonya.

And thank you, all of you. Again, for joining us on our conference call for the third quarter 2025. We wish you a good day and goodbye.

Operator (participant)

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation and have a great day.