AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)·Q2 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• AST SpaceMobile reported Q2 2025 revenue of $1.16M and GAAP EPS of $(0.41), with total operating expenses rising to $73.95M and adjusted operating expenses of $51.71M, reflecting transaction-related costs tied to spectrum and JV activities .
• Management reiterated fully-funded plans to deploy 45–60 satellites by 2026, enabling continuous service in the U.S., Europe, Japan, and other strategic markets; FM1 is ready to ship in August 2025 to start a multi-launch cadence every 1–2 months .
• Commercialization advanced via expanded spectrum strategy (agreement to acquire 60 MHz global S-Band ITU priority rights) and court-approved L-Band rights (up to 45 MHz in U.S./Canada), positioning for up to 120 Mbps per cell and enhanced capacity; country-level approvals remain a gating factor .
• Second-half 2025 revenue expectations of $50–$75M were maintained, underpinned by gateway bookings ($14.9M in Q2) and U.S. Government contracts; adjusted Q3 OpEx guided to ~ $50M, CapEx to $225–$300M on timing shifts of launch payments .
• Near-term stock catalysts: execution of launch cadence (FM1 and sequential launches), regulatory progress on S-/L-Band, and government programs of record potential; management emphasized confidence in funding (> $1.5B pro forma cash) and manufacturing throughput .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• “We are confirming our fully-funded plan to deploy 45 to 60 satellites into orbit by 2026,” with six satellites in orbit today and eight Block 2 phased-array microns assembled—FM1 shipping in August 2025 to initiate cadence .
• S-/L-Band strategy expanded: agreement to acquire 60 MHz global S-Band ITU rights and court-approved L-Band documentation for up to 45 MHz in U.S./Canada, enabling carrier aggregation and up to 120 Mbps peak per cell .
• Government momentum: two additional early-stage U.S. Government contracts (eight total); first tactical NTN connectivity over standard mobile devices demonstrated with multiple branches under DIU .

What Went Wrong

• Adjusted OpEx rose above prior commentary due to large transaction expenses (L-Band, related financing, Vodafone JV work), landing at $51.7M vs $44.9M in Q1; management noted adjusted OpEx would be closer to ~$46.5M excluding transaction items .
• CapEx escalated above prior guidance high end (Q2 property & equipment ~$322.8M vs guided $270M) due to pulled-forward $25M launch payment and pre-buying materials amid tariff volatility .
• Revenue remains de minimis pre-service ($1.16M in Q2), with commercialization and regulatory milestones still critical to ramp second-half and into 2026; consensus estimates were unavailable to benchmark beats/misses .

Financial Results

Notes:

• Adjusted OpEx excludes D&A and stock-based compensation; management indicated Q2 adjusted OpEx would be closer to ~$46.5M excluding transaction costs .
• Cash pro forma exceeds $1.5B with July convertible notes and ATM proceeds, but period-end reported cash stands at $939.4M for Q2 .

No formal segment reporting; revenue sources include government milestone recognition and early commercialization activities (limited at current constellation scale) .

KPIs

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• CEO: “We are confirming our fully-funded plan to deploy 45 to 60 satellites into orbit by 2026… We have completed the assembly of microns for phased arrays of eight Block 2 BlueBird satellites…” .
• CEO: “Following our recent announcement on L/S-Band spectrum access, we now have a path for premium spectrum on a global basis… to support up to 120 Mbps peak data rates per cell globally.” .
• CFO: “Adjusted operating expenses… were $51.7M… above guidance… mainly due to large transaction expenses… If you further adjust for these transaction expenses, our adjusted operating expense were closer to $46.5M.” .
• President/CSO: “Expressions of interest from 21 of 27 EU member states… gateway equipment bookings of $14.9M… expect ~$10M per quarter on average in 2025.” .
• CFO: “We reiterate… revenue opportunity in 2025 in the range of $50–$75M… subject to successful launch/deployment and contractual milestones… gateways… service revenues.” .

Q&A Highlights

• Revenue share economics: Current contracts reflect a 50/50 rev-share where MNOs bring spectrum and users; S-/L-Band additions may evolve value capture over time .
• Capacity and user experience: Up to 120 Mbps peak per cell; satellites can form 2,500–10,000 cells (with new ASIC); dynamic capacity management by density and satellite count .
• Launch sequencing: FM1 is ready to ship in Aug; launches are independent across multiple providers; cadence of every 45–60 days with 6–8 satellites per launch .
• Government TAM: Pursuing multiple “programs of record” potentially north of $100M each; budgets and demand increasing under new administration .
• L-Band payments/financing: ~$420M due Oct 2025 and ~$100M due Mar 2026 via non-recourse SPV; usage fees commence later in 2025 .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global consensus for ASTS revenue and EPS for Q2 2025 was unavailable at the time of this report. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• Without consensus benchmarks, no beat/miss assessment can be made; focus shifts to trajectory vs internal guidance (2H revenue range) and execution milestones .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Funding runway appears sufficient to reach 45–60 satellites by 2026, a critical threshold for continuous regional service; fully-funded pro forma liquidity > $1.5B reduces financing overhang risk .
• Spectrum portfolio expansion (S-/L-Band) enhances capacity and service quality, potentially improving economics vs solely leveraging MNO low-band; watch regulatory timelines for country-level landing rights .
• Government segment is emerging as a near-term revenue driver with eight contracts and demonstrated tactical NTN capability; monitor progress toward programs of record in 2H 2025/2026 .
• Operating expense normalization expected in Q3 (~$50M adj. OpEx) as transaction costs abate; CapEx moderates ($225–$300M) on launch payment timing—supporting manufacturing scaling without outsized cash burn .
• Commercialization catalysts: U.S. intermittent service by end-2025, UK/Japan/Canada in Q1 2026, gateway bookings ($14.9M in Q2; ~$10M/quarter expected) signaling demand ahead of activation .
• Execution watchpoints: launch cadence reliability across providers, spectrum approvals (S-/L-Band), device-level silicon timelines, and tariff/geopolitical cost impacts (pre-buys mitigate risk) .
• Trading implications: sentiment likely hinges on near-term launch events and regulatory filings; absence of Street consensus limits “beat/miss” catalysts—focus on milestone delivery and government awards .

Appendix: Source Documents

• Q2 2025 Form 8-K and Press Release (including financials and business update) .
• Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript –.
• Q2 2025 Earnings Presentation –.
• S-Band Spectrum Acquisition Press Release (Aug 6, 2025) .
• Q1 2025 Form 8-K and Press Release –.
• Q4 2024 Form 8-K and Press Release –.