AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (ASTS)·Q3 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

• Q3 2025 revenue ramped to $14.7M from $1.2M in Q2, driven by gateway hardware deliveries and U.S. government milestone achievements; GAAP net loss per share was -$0.45, compared to -$0.41 in Q2 and -$1.10 in Q3 2024 .
• Management disclosed “over $1.0B” in aggregate contracted revenue commitments and a $175M prepayment from stc; definitive commercial agreements with Verizon and stc deepen the partner ecosystem across ~50 MNOs with ~3B subscribers .
• Liquidity strengthened to >$3.2B pro forma (cash, restricted cash, and available ATM capacity), fully funding a 100+ satellite constellation; Q4 2025 guidance: adjusted OpEx mid-$60Ms and capex $275–$325M .
• Near-term catalysts: BlueBird-6 launch in December and BlueBird-7 shortly thereafter; five orbital launches by end of Q1 2026, intermittent U.S. nationwide activation early 2026, with Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, and the UK also planned in early 2026 .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

• Signed definitive commercial agreements with Verizon (U.S.) and stc (Saudi Arabia/MENA), including stc’s $175M prepayment and long-term revenue commitment; management highlighted over $1.0B in total contracted revenue commitments as commercialization accelerates .
• Technology and spectrum progress: announced EU constellation plans with Vodafone (Germany operations center), closed deals for global S-band priority rights and long-term L-band access in the U.S.; rights to >80 MHz in the U.S. support throughput and capacity .
• Management quote: “We have secured over $1 billion in aggregate contracted revenue commitments from our commercial partners.” .

What Went Wrong

• Adjusted operating expenses rose above prior expectations due to non-recurring transaction costs and gateway COGS; Q3 adjusted OpEx was $67.7M vs. $51.7M in Q2 (excl. D&A/SBC), with ~$7.1M transaction-related expenses cited .
• Capex remained elevated given manufacturing/launch cadence, at ~$259M in Q3 (slightly below midpoint of prior guidance), with Q4 expected to tick up to $275–$325M on launch timing .
• Execution risks persist: commercialization revenue depends on successful launches, gateway deliveries to MNOs, and service activations; management reiterated contingencies and regulatory approvals needed, including CST in Saudi Arabia .

Financial Results

Notes:

• Revenue mix in Q3 was “primarily driven by gateway hardware sales and various commercial and U.S. government service milestone achievements” .
• Q/Q: Revenue +$13.6M; EPS -$0.04; Adj. OpEx +$16.0M .
• Y/Y: Revenue +$13.6M; EPS +$0.65 .

KPIs and Operational Metrics

Guidance Changes

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

Management Commentary

• “We have secured over $1 billion in aggregate contracted revenue commitments from our commercial partners.” — CEO Abel Avellan .
• “Between our own and mobile network operator partner spectrum, we have rights to access over 80 megahertz of paired and high-quality spectrum in the United States alone.” — CEO Abel Avellan .
• “On a pro forma basis… our cash, cash equivalents, and restricted cash as of September 30, 2025, was approximately $3.2 billion… we are fully funded to manufacture and launch a constellation of over 100 satellites.” — CFO Andy Johnson .
• “We plan to deploy services next year with two of the major U.S. mobile network operators.” — President Scott Wisniewski (re Verizon/AT&T) .

Q&A Highlights

• Prepayments and commitments: Strategy unchanged; mix of near-, medium-, and long-term commitments; $1B+ are “hard commitments” with disclosure not mapped to specific customers .
• EU constellation and IRIS2: EU constellation satellites are part of existing plan; management wouldn’t comment on IRIS2 awards but emphasized strong positioning .
• Launch vehicles: Immediate campaigns with SpaceX and New Glenn; capacity ~3 satellites per Falcon 9 and ~8 per New Glenn; five launches by end of Q1 2026 .
• Beta trials in North America: ~25 satellites seen as fair proxy to support beta trials in 2026 .
• Spectrum/platform: Ability to recombine AT&T and Verizon spectrum and blend with AST’s 50 MHz MSS to create a near nationwide service; AI-driven spectrum efficiency highlighted .

Estimates Context

• S&P Global Wall Street consensus estimates for Q3 2025 revenue and EPS were unavailable at time of writing; thus, we cannot determine a beat/miss versus consensus for Q3 2025. Consensus data was requested but returned no values (Primary EPS Consensus Mean, Revenue Consensus Mean, # of estimates) for Q1–Q3 2025. Values retrieved from S&P Global.*
• With revenue ramping to $14.7M in Q3 and guidance maintained for $50–$75M in 2H 2025, we expect sell-side models to adjust for earlier gateway revenue recognition and service activation phasing .

Key Takeaways for Investors

• Commercial traction accelerating: Verizon and stc definitive agreements, $175M stc prepayment, and $1B+ contracted commitments validate demand and provide revenue visibility .
• Liquidity/funding: >$3.2B pro forma liquidity fully funds 100+ satellites, enabling broader geographic coverage beyond the initial 45–60 satellite plan .
• Execution milestones: BlueBird launches start December; five launches by end Q1 2026; intermittent U.S. coverage early 2026, with EU/Saudi/Japan/Canada activation plans .
• Cost trajectory: Adjusted OpEx stepped up on transactions and scaling; Q4 guidance mid-$60Ms with capex $275–$325M tied to launch timing; watch OpEx normalization as commercialization begins .
• Spectrum advantage: >80 MHz access in the U.S. plus L/S-band strategy and AI-driven spectrum management underpin capacity and throughput differentiation .
• Revenue ramp risk factors: Achievement contingent on successful launches, gateway deployments, regulatory approvals, and service activations; management reiterated contingencies .
• Near-term trading catalysts: December/early 2026 launches, additional definitive agreements, gateway sales cadence, and regulatory approvals may drive sentiment and estimate revisions .