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Athene Holding Ltd. (ATH-PA)·Q1 2025 Earnings Summary

Executive Summary

  • Q1 2025 total revenues were $4.19B, up 11% q/q from $3.78B but down 27% y/y from $5.72B as investment-related losses moderated sequentially but remained below prior-year levels .
  • Net income available to common was $0.42B, down 57% q/q and 63% y/y; however, core profitability held firm with Spread Related Earnings (SRE) at $804M, down just 4% q/q and 1% y/y .
  • Gross organic inflows surged to $25.56B (+80% q/q, +27% y/y), producing net flows of $17.17B (+143% q/q), a key positive alongside a 10.08% annualized alternative return (actual $315M), modestly above the April 2 preliminary estimate of ~9% ($290M) .
  • No formal revenue/EPS guidance was provided; S&P Global consensus estimates for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue were unavailable, limiting beat/miss assessment; product enhancements and distribution leadership are likely catalysts for continued inflow momentum .

What Went Well and What Went Wrong

What Went Well

  • Record inflow strength: Gross organic inflows reached $25.56B (+80% q/q) with net flows of $17.17B (+143% q/q), reflecting strong retail, flow reinsurance, and funding agreement activity .
  • Alternative performance: Alternative net investment income was $315M with a 10.08% annualized return (vs. long-term expectation of 11%), supported by pooled vehicles and platforms, improving from Q4 and consistent with the April preliminary outlook .
  • Product and distribution leadership: Management emphasized simplifying flagship FIAs and leading industry innovations; “Athene is on a mission to make annuity products simpler to understand and easier to use,” said COO Mike Downing, highlighting paperless replacements and product-level enhancements .
  • Strategic positioning: Athene ranked No. 1 in 2024 U.S. retail annuity sales at $36B and led multiple categories, underscoring channel strength and bank distribution scale (≈80% of retail volume) .

What Went Wrong

  • Earnings compression: Net income available to common fell to $420M (-57% q/q, -63% y/y), driven by lower investment-related gains and non-operating fair value items despite resilient SRE .
  • Cost of funds plateaued at 3.46% (flat q/q, +36 bps y/y), limiting net spread (1.26% vs. 1.37% in Q4 and 1.47% in Q1 2024), reflecting liability costs and FIA option spend .
  • Estimate visibility: Wall Street consensus estimates (S&P Global) for EPS and revenue were unavailable, constraining external beat/miss signaling in the quarter; management provided no formal quantitative guidance [GetEstimates]* .

Financial Results

Core Metrics vs. Prior Quarters

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$6.52 $3.78 $4.19
Net Income Available to Common ($USD Billions)$0.58 $0.97 $0.42
ROA (%)0.67% 1.08% 0.45%
Spread Related Earnings ($USD Billions)$0.855 $0.838 $0.804
Net Investment Earned Rate (%)5.12% 5.20% 5.06%
Cost of Funds (%)3.34% 3.46% 3.46%
Net Spread (%)1.44% 1.37% 1.26%

YoY Comparison (Q1 2024 vs. Q1 2025)

MetricQ1 2024Q1 2025Change
Total Revenues ($USD Billions)$5.72 $4.19 -27%
Net Income Available to Common ($USD Billions)$1.147 $0.420 -63%
SRE ($USD Billions)$0.816 $0.804 -1%
Net Spread (%)1.47% 1.26% -21 bps

Alternatives and Investment Returns

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Alternative NII ($USD Millions)$236 $269 $315
Alternative Return (Annualized, %)8.19% 9.25% 10.08%
Preliminary Alt NII (as of Apr 2) ($USD Millions)——~$290

Segment/Channel Activity and KPIs

MetricQ3 2024Q4 2024Q1 2025
Gross Organic Inflows ($USD Billions)$20.02 $14.20 $25.56
Net Flows ($USD Billions)$11.86 $7.06 $17.17
Retail Net Flows ($USD Billions)$9.21 $7.95 $9.48
Flow Reinsurance Net Flows ($USD Billions)$0.94 $1.03 $4.93
Funding Agreements Net Flows ($USD Billions)$9.57 $5.17 $11.14
Average Net Invested Assets ($USD Billions)$237.81 $244.80 $255.51
Net Invested Assets ($USD Billions, EOP)$242.66 $248.64 $262.37
Investment Grade Share of Net Invested Assets (%)96.2% 96.2% 96.2%

Guidance Changes

MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange
Revenue/EPSQ1 2025Not providedNot providedMaintained (no formal guidance)
Alternative NII (Prelim)Q1 2025~$290M, ~9% annualized return (Apr 2) Actual $315M, 10.08% annualized Raised vs. prelim (actual higher)
Preferred Dividends (per DS)Q1 2025RecurringSeries A: $0.396875; B: $0.3515625; C: $0.3984375; D: $0.3046875; E: $0.484375 Maintained (declared for Q1 schedule)
Fixed Income Investor CallMay 12, 2025N/AScheduled investor update call New event

Earnings Call Themes & Trends

TopicPrevious Mentions (Q3 2024, Q4 2024)Current Period (Q1 2025)Trend
Alternative returns vs. long-term expectation8.19%→9.25% annualized; delta to LT expectation moderating 10.08% annualized; delta 0.92% Improving sequentially
Inflows/Net flows momentumQ3 inflows $20.02B; Q4 $14.20B; net flows $11.86B→$7.06B Gross inflows $25.56B; net flows $17.17B Strong reacceleration
Cost of funds/net spreadNet spread 1.44%→1.37%; cost of funds rising Net spread 1.26%; cost of funds flat at 3.46% Spread pressure stable
Statutory accounting updateN/AAdoption of principles-based bond definition; NAIC “Non-designated” introduced New framework
Product/tech initiativesContinued distribution buildFIA enhancements; paperless replacements cut processing to 48-72 hours Execution progress
Credit qualityInvestment grade ≈96% of net invested assets Investment grade ≈96% Stable high quality

Note: No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was found; themes reflect the quarterly financial supplement and press releases .

Management Commentary

  • “Athene is on a mission to make annuity products simpler to understand and easier to use,” highlighting streamlined index lineups, new interest crediting strategies, and rider options to enhance client outcomes and advisor efficiency .
  • “These industry-leading results demonstrate our exceptional strength in the retail annuity channel and unmatched, differentiated footprint in the market,” underscoring category leadership and bank distribution momentum .
  • Preliminary Q1 view: Management estimated alternative NII at ~$290M (≈9% annualized) ahead of full results, with pooled vehicles at ~10% and other alternatives at ~6% returns, signaling robust performance drivers .

Q&A Highlights

  • No Q1 2025 earnings call transcript was available; therefore, Q&A themes, guidance clarifications, and tone comparisons to prior quarters cannot be assessed from a transcript this period [ListDocuments result: 0 earnings-call-transcript].

Estimates Context

  • S&P Global consensus estimates for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue were unavailable; beat/miss analysis versus Street numbers cannot be determined this quarter [GetEstimates]*.
  • Given unavailable EPS and revenue consensus, buyside focus should center on SRE durability, alternative returns vs. LT expectations, and inflow momentum as key operating proxies .
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global.

Key Takeaways for Investors

  • Inflows/Net flows were a standout positive; fund agreements and flow reinsurance drove reacceleration, supporting asset growth and future earnings power .
  • Alternative returns exceeded the preliminary estimate and improved sequentially; continued strong pooled vehicle performance is supportive of SRE stability .
  • Net spread edged down as cost of funds remained elevated; watch liability costs and FIA option costs for spread trajectory in coming quarters .
  • Statutory accounting changes (principles-based bond definition) alter NAIC presentation; monitor “Non-designated” items and rating tables for any downstream impacts on capital and disclosures .
  • Credit quality remains robust (≈96% investment grade), which is important amid macro uncertainty and supports capital markets access (e.g., recent notes/debentures activity) .
  • With Street estimates unavailable and no formal guidance, near-term trading likely keys off inflow momentum, alternative performance, and product/distribution execution updates (including the May 12 investor call) .
  • Medium-term thesis: Scale in retirement services, distribution leadership, and disciplined spread management underpin core earnings; watch net spread normalization vs. LT targets and sustained alternative returns for valuation support .

Appendix: Selected Balance Sheet and Reserves

MetricDec 31, 2024Mar 31, 2025
Total Assets ($USD Billions)$363.34 $381.48
Net Invested Assets ($USD Billions)$248.64 $262.37
Net Reserve Liabilities ($USD Billions)$225.93 $241.67
Funding Agreements ($USD Billions)$47.38 $55.38
Investment Grade AFS (NAIC, %)97.0% 97.1%

Citations:

  • Quarterly financial supplement and consolidated GAAP data:
  • Preliminary Q1 2025 alt NII 8-K (Item 2.02/7.01):
  • Product enhancements and distribution/process improvements:
  • Record 2024 annuity sales and channel leadership:
  • Preferred dividends declaration (Q1 schedule):
  • Recent senior/junior notes and capital events:

S&P Global estimates disclaimer:

  • Consensus estimates for Q1 2025 EPS and revenue were not available via S&P Global; where values are referenced as unavailable, this reflects S&P Global data limitations for the period [GetEstimates]*.
    *Values retrieved from S&P Global.